Re: PLEASE DON'T READ Nick's post: "Schroedinger's "What is Life?""

Posted by Sarbajit Roy (testing) on Apr 27, 2010; 6:22pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/PLEASE-DON-T-READ-Nick-s-post-Schroedinger-s-What-is-Life-tp4966453p4970067.html

Hi Steve

" The chances of drawing a glass without any marked molecules is 1/1000, supporting ES's claim."

I don't think the maths works quite that way. Some glasses would have exactly 1000 molecules, some would have 1000 -/+ 1, or 2 ..  -/+999.  Presuming that the distribution is a "normal" distribution, there would be an exceedingly small probability of getting a glass with zero marked molecules.

Furthermore since there is the equally remote probability that a single glass would contain all the marked molecules (just like we started out with), the distribution would be skewed away from a normal one..

This is just an off the cuff observation. I could brush up my prob-stats if reqd (and eat humble pie if wrong).

On Tue, Apr 27, 2010 at 9:35 AM, Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick -

I read it through before seeing your retraction.  As you may recognize by now, your fallacy is probably not a consequence of your being an English (Psychology?) Major but actually just not reading the statement of the problem carefully enough.   The 10^24 (molecules) vs the 10^21 glasses (cups?)  might be about right and your math is good (1000 molecules per glass on average)... but the conclusion (1/1000 chance of drawing a glass with a marked molecule) is reversed.   The chances of drawing a glass without any marked molecules is 1/1000, supporting ES's claim.  

I'd say you did good (right up to that premature send thingy) for an English Major.

I read ES's "What is Life" years ago and was deeply inspired by it's directness and simplicity (and lack of jargon) and timeliness (1949?) well before much was done to tie life to information theory.   I look forward to your continued "book reports".

- Steve

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