Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises
Posted by
Douglas Roberts-2 on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Game-theorists-hope-to-solve-world-s-crises-tp4100321p4101362.html
Well, speaking of models being wrong, check this out:
The reason the East Anglia data matter is that computer models have
been erected upon them, which have been incorporated into governmental
and U.N. reports, which in turn have become the basis for actual and
proposed government policies. So all this amounts to a prelude: the
important questions domestically are whether the Senate approves the
cap and trade bill next year and what happens with the EPA's efforts to
regulate carbon dioxide. Internationally, the question centers on the
fate of the Copenhagen summit.
This is from the recent CBS news article about the growing "Climategate" fiasco:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/12/02/taking_liberties/entry5860171.shtml?tag=cbsnewsTwoColLowerPromoArea;morenews
In the spirit of full disclosure: the data that all of my models use is always
impeccably verifiable (as are all of the bugs in the code).
--Doug
On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 11:05 AM, glen e. p. ropella
<[hidden email]> wrote:
Quoting Nicholas Thompson circa 09-12-02 09:48 AM:
> All models are wrong; models are designed to be wrong. They couldnt possibly do any good if they weren;t wrong.
>
> It's just that some models are wronger than others.
Oh, the situation is a lot worse than that. It's not that some models
are more wrong than others. It's that models are rhetorical devices.
When you meet a person who really _believes_ her own rhetoric to the
extent that they are convicted, committed, and unwaveringly confident in
their own rhetoric ... well, then you KNOW you've got a certifiable
WACKO on your hands. Following their consulting would be like following
Jim Jones to Guyana ... like following Marshall Applewhite to Rancho
Santa Fe.
At least with your run-of-the-mill televangelist, you get the sense that
they're just hucksters trying to get others to believe rhetoric they,
themselves, don't believe. I'll take a snake-oil salesman over a True
Believer any day!
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