Posted by
Stephen Guerin on
Jun 15, 2009; 3:35pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/reminder-today-Mon-June-15-Applied-Complexity-Symposium-Bill-Reynolds-and-Marta-Weber-tp3080965.html
Two potential projects are brewing at sfComplex around validation and
verification (V&V) in complexity models and "order of battle". Please
come and listen to Bill Reynolds and Marta Weber describe their
upcoming applied complexity project.
SPEAKERS:
Bill Reynolds - Least Squares Software
Marta Weber - Applied Behavioral Sciences
TIME: Mon June 15 1:30p Santa Fe Complex Commons
632 Agua Fria Street
ABSTRACT
We give a (patent pending) approach for supporting validation and
verification (V&V) for complex modeling and simulation. We present a
means of characterizing methods, Breadth-Depth, which encompasses
techniques ranging from simulation to unstructured human judgment.
Based on this framework, we argue that a cost-effective method V&V of
HSBC simulations is triangulation of simulation against breadth
methods. We propose a specific instantiation of this approach, based
on morphological analysis (MA). We propose to develop a software tool
to support MA-based breadth-depth triangulation. We will use the tool
to conduct breadth-based V&V for simulations developed under the HSBC
program. We conjecture that this will lead to superior V&V
methodologies for simulations of complex systems. We further
conjecture that the effort will lead to improved insights and
capabilities into the operational use of simulations for complex
decision problems.
ABSTRACT
An order of battle (OB) is a simple encoding of information that is
particularly relevant to a military commander. The choice of
information used in an OB captures centuries (or even millennia) of
expertise in the military arts. The idea of a Cultural Order of Battle
(COB) is to provide an operationally useful capture of expertise from
the social sciences. Facts that are obvious to anthropologists,
psychologists or economists can be manifestly non-obvious to
commanders, planners and analysts. The COB strives to capture these
facts in transparent, easy-to-use and disseminate method modules that
focus on specific areas of the social sciences. Each module will be
modest – trying to do one thing well, albeit something that is not in
the operational lexicon of military experts. Sophistication and
complexity arise through the combination of modules, a practice we
call multimethod analysis. Our approach considers various problems
simultaneously through many disciplinary lenses.
The COB consists of three prototype methods: a tool, from
anthropology, for understanding cultural segmentation - splits and
bonds between groups based on identity; a tool, from psychology, for
assessing utility of decisions using prospect theory; and an approach,
from economics, for enumerating the institutional networks of non-
state actors (NSAs) - structures that can be formed by cooperating and
competing NSAs with different institutional capabilities (e.g. trade,
security, logistics).
SPEAKER BIOS
WILLIAM NASH REYNOLDS, Ph.D. is the founder, President and Chief
Science Officer of Least Squares Software and has been a principal
researcher and innovator in the field of complexity for more than
twenty years. Over the past eight years, he has focused on the role of
complex systems in intelligence analysis, directing his research
toward complexity-based analytic methodologies, which are of practical
value to analysts in the Intelligence Community. In this capacity, Dr.
Reynolds has conducted numerous intelligence analysis case studies
assessing the impact of technology on efficiency and effectiveness in
analytic practice. Dr. Reynolds holds a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics
from the University of California at San Diego, and Bachelor’s Degrees
in Physics and Comparative Literature from the University of
Massachusetts at Amherst.
Selected Publications & Presentation
2009. Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth for Warning. Invited
presentation at the National Intelligence Council Seminar on the
Tradecraft of Warning, February 20, 2009, Arlington, VA.
2009. Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth: A Quantitative Taxonomy of
Method and Multimethod. In preparation.
2009. Reynolds, W. N. and Moore, D. T. Advancing the Practice:
Multimethodological Analysis for Intelligence. In preparation. 2006.
Moore, David T. and Reynolds, William N. So Many Ways to Lie:
Complexity of Denial and Deception. Defense Intelligence Journal 15(2):
95-116.
MARTA S. WEBER, Ph.D. is the founder of Applied Behavioral Sciences
and a psychologist with thirty years of experience in clinical,
forensic, and intelligence practice. Dr. Weber pioneered the use of in-
depth remote psychological profiling and introduced a comprehensive
method to psycholinguistic analysis of speech and text to determine
motivations, intention, and deception techniques in subjects
internationally. She is a recognized expert in the analysis of
organizational leadership. In addition to her Ph.D. in Psychology, she
holds advanced degrees in Sociology and the History of Art. She
received specialized training with the Federal Bureau of
Investigation’s Behavioral Sciences Unit. Dr. Weber has provided
consultation and training to U.S. intelligence agencies since 2000;
she has worked with LSS since 2005.
Selected Publications & Presentations
2008. Human Capital Assessment in CI. Competitive Intelligence
Magazine 11(6)
2006. Leveraging Behavioral Sciences for Improved Intelligence
Outcomes. Paper presented to The Intelligence Summit. Arlington, VA.
2004. Profiling for Leadership Analysis. CI Magazine 7(4).
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