Re: The Black Swan

Posted by Russ Abbott on Nov 16, 2008; 9:45pm
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/The-Black-Swan-tp1505491p1507160.html

Taleb's writing style is very personal. He likes telling stories. Chapter 9 "The Ludic Fallacy"  contains what I would consider the essence of his message. It's fun reading--and it's online. 

-- Russ

On Sun, Nov 16, 2008 at 6:42 AM, Phil Henshaw <[hidden email]> wrote:

I'd agree Taleb does not communicate his main insights consistently, and
uses fuzzy generalities that you need to "grok" to make sense of.  I don't
think one needs to deal with all that to get the main point, though.

The reasons why *statistical analysis fails for subjects of increasing
non-homogenous complexity* seems invaluable.   It's a principle that might
be derived simply from any number of directions, and is an important point.
Our world is making the critical error exposed in any number of ways it
appears.

It's also interestingly central to the complexity theory of W M Elsasser
that he developed in the 50's and 60's.  He's an extraordinarily clear
thinking theoretical physicist/biologist who points to that as a gap in
statistical mechanics that needs to be considered for any attempt to model
non-homogenous systems like life.

I even find that "strategy of the gaps" remotely similar to how Rosen points
to why divergent sequences can't be represented in closed systems of
equations, but are clearly part of life, and so are necessary for any
attempt to model such non-homogenously developing and changing systems as
life.

Phil Henshaw  

> -----Original Message-----
> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On
> Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
> Sent: Sunday, November 16, 2008 4:59 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: [FRIAM] The Black Swan
>
> I am currently trying to read Taleb's "Black Swan".
> Paul and Glen mentioned it earlier a few weeks ago,
> and Russ said it has some nice points. So I read
> the first chapter and thought "well, interesting".
> Then I read the second about Yevgenia Krasnova,
> a fictional character which embodies his anger
> about publishers, and thought "what a crap".
>
> Somehow it goes on like this: it is hard to
> say if it is crap (his "Mediocristan" and
> "Extremistan" for example) or a masterpiece.
> Chapter three is better again. Many ideas
> are exhilarating, but the terms are often
> very idiosyncratic.
>
> His main topic, the "Black Swan", is less
> interesting than the many thought provoking
> ideas one can find between the lines, when Taleb
> talks about his experiences or uprising. After
> all, points where little things can make a big
> difference are not new, John H. Holland has
> called them "Lever points", Murray Gell-Mann
> "frozen accidents", and Gladwell "tipping points".
>
> Do you agree? What do you think are his most
> interesting points? I like for instance the
> paragraphs about "scalable professions":
> for Taleb it is "a profession in which you are
> not paid by the hour and thus subject to the
> limitations of the amount of labor" (p. 27).
> It is in interesting idea to apply "scalability"
> to professions and payoffs.
>
> -J.
>
>
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============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org