http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Blinded-By-Science-When-models-FAIL-taking-all-the-humans-tp1345917p1349289.html
I sold enough for my own and my son's security for a time last Nov.... for
what it's worth. I chose not to sell out to see how it felt to only 'cover
bring whole systems down if copied. That did develop, of course, a few
weeks ago. As I saw the wave building and crashing it constantly felt like
> -----Original Message-----
> From:
[hidden email] [mailto:
[hidden email]] On
> Behalf Of Pamela McCorduck
> Sent: Friday, October 17, 2008 4:03 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Blinded By Science - When models FAIL taking all
> the humans
>
> I found that Nature article disingenuous. It just so happened I sat
> down to dinner with a couple of bigtime modelers on Tuesday night--one
> models mathematically, one heuristically. They hadn't ever talked about
> it with each other, but they found out they'd done the same thing:
> they'd done the arithmetic, saw that whatever was happening in the
> markets was a bubble, and closed most of their positions within the
> last eighteen months. Is Nature asking us to feel sorry for people who
> couldn't do arithmetic?
>
>
>
>
> On Oct 17, 2008, at 12:32 PM, peggy miller wrote:
>
> > Models don't replace ownership and smaller sized business
> > responsibility...unless can figure out a model for Caring.
> >
> > When I was doing bank work in D.C. for Consumer Federation, I ended
> up
> > with the position, due both to intuition, as well as hard facts from
> > studies that were performed by Harvard and other fairly reputable
> > places-- showing that good banking judgement becomes reduced (like
> > with any management) as ownership is eliminated replaced by ever
> > larger scale operations managed by non-ownership managers.
> >
> > Translation -- statistics and common sense verified that the larger
> > the operation becomes, with noticeably poorer decisions happening at
> > the size of business over $1 billion in profits, matched by
> > replacement of ownership/manager with non-owner managers, judgment
> > fails. Caring appears to be a part of ownership. Somethings counter
> > this problem, like profit sharing -- giving workers part of profits -
> -
> > but ownership of business and smaller size seems to be almost
> > irreplaceable. Small banks and credit unions, owned locally, rarely
> > fail. The owner's name, reputation and thus decisions are on the
> line.
> >
> > How many names of the managers of these large failed institutions do
> > we know? a couple? and they get paid handsomely either way ..
> >
> > There was discussion of linking pay of all managers more directly to
> > following of safety standards .. but I don't think that happened.
> Also
> > .. just fyi .. when we went to have a hearing on this before Senate
> > Banking Committee .. with the studies showing that size of
> > institutions relates to poor management -- when you get over $1
> > billion, management quality noticeable deteriorates -- suddenly the
> > group of professors and academics who performed the studies said they
> > could not testify (they were silenced somehow.)
> >
> >
> >
> > Have a great day!
> > Peggy Miller
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at
http://www.friam.org>
> "But this I know: the writer who possesses the creative gift owns
> something of which he is not always master--something that, at times,
> strangely wills and works for itself."
>
> Charlotte Bronte
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at
http://www.friam.orgMeets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College