Posted by
Pamela McCorduck on
URL: http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/Blinded-By-Science-When-models-FAIL-taking-all-the-humans-tp1345917p1346736.html
I found that Nature article disingenuous. It just so happened I sat
down to dinner with a couple of bigtime modelers on Tuesday night--one
models mathematically, one heuristically. They hadn't ever talked about
it with each other, but they found out they'd done the same thing:
they'd done the arithmetic, saw that whatever was happening in the
markets was a bubble, and closed most of their positions within the
last eighteen months. Is Nature asking us to feel sorry for people who
couldn't do arithmetic?
On Oct 17, 2008, at 12:32 PM, peggy miller wrote:
> Models don't replace ownership and smaller sized business
> responsibility...unless can figure out a model for Caring.
>
> When I was doing bank work in D.C. for Consumer Federation, I ended up
> with the position, due both to intuition, as well as hard facts from
> studies that were performed by Harvard and other fairly reputable
> places-- showing that good banking judgement becomes reduced (like
> with any management) as ownership is eliminated replaced by ever
> larger scale operations managed by non-ownership managers.
>
> Translation -- statistics and common sense verified that the larger
> the operation becomes, with noticeably poorer decisions happening at
> the size of business over $1 billion in profits, matched by
> replacement of ownership/manager with non-owner managers, judgment
> fails. Caring appears to be a part of ownership. Somethings counter
> this problem, like profit sharing -- giving workers part of profits --
> but ownership of business and smaller size seems to be almost
> irreplaceable. Small banks and credit unions, owned locally, rarely
> fail. The owner's name, reputation and thus decisions are on the line.
>
> How many names of the managers of these large failed institutions do
> we know? a couple? and they get paid handsomely either way ..
>
> There was discussion of linking pay of all managers more directly to
> following of safety standards .. but I don't think that happened. Also
> .. just fyi .. when we went to have a hearing on this before Senate
> Banking Committee .. with the studies showing that size of
> institutions relates to poor management -- when you get over $1
> billion, management quality noticeable deteriorates -- suddenly the
> group of professors and academics who performed the studies said they
> could not testify (they were silenced somehow.)
>
>
>
> Have a great day!
> Peggy Miller
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strangely wills and works for itself."
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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http://www.friam.org