**reminder today** Mon June 15: Applied Complexity Symposium: Bill Reynolds and Marta Weber

[Stephen Guerin]

Two potential projects are brewing at sfComplex around validation and  
verification (V&V) in complexity models and "order of battle". Please  
come and listen to Bill Reynolds and Marta Weber describe their  
upcoming applied complexity project.

SPEAKERS:
  Bill Reynolds - Least Squares Software
  Marta Weber - Applied Behavioral Sciences

TIME: Mon June 15 1:30p Santa Fe Complex Commons
      632 Agua Fria Street

ABSTRACT
We give a (patent pending) approach for supporting validation and  
verification (V&V) for complex modeling and simulation. We present a  
means of characterizing methods, Breadth-Depth, which encompasses  
techniques ranging from simulation to unstructured human judgment.  
Based on this framework, we argue that a cost-effective method V&V of  
HSBC simulations is triangulation of simulation against breadth  
methods. We propose a specific instantiation of this approach, based  
on morphological analysis (MA). We propose to develop a software tool  
to support MA-based breadth-depth triangulation. We will use the tool  
to conduct breadth-based V&V for simulations developed under the HSBC  
program. We conjecture that this will lead to superior V&V  
methodologies for simulations of complex systems. We further  
conjecture that the effort will lead to improved insights and  
capabilities into the operational use of simulations for complex  
decision problems.


ABSTRACT
An order of battle (OB) is a simple encoding of information that is  
particularly relevant to a military commander. The choice of  
information used in an OB captures centuries (or even millennia) of  
expertise in the military arts. The idea of a Cultural Order of Battle  
(COB) is to provide an operationally useful capture of expertise from  
the social sciences. Facts that are obvious to anthropologists,  
psychologists or economists can be manifestly non-obvious to  
commanders, planners and analysts. The COB strives to capture these  
facts in transparent, easy-to-use and disseminate method modules that  
focus on specific areas of the social sciences. Each module will be  
modest  – trying to do one thing well, albeit something that is not in  
the operational lexicon of military experts. Sophistication and  
complexity arise through the combination of modules, a practice we  
call multimethod analysis. Our approach considers various problems  
simultaneously through many disciplinary lenses.

The COB consists of three prototype methods: a tool, from  
anthropology, for understanding cultural segmentation - splits and  
bonds between groups based on identity; a tool, from psychology, for  
assessing utility of decisions using prospect theory; and an approach,  
from economics, for enumerating the institutional networks of non-
state actors (NSAs) - structures that can be formed by cooperating and  
competing NSAs with different institutional capabilities (e.g. trade,  
security, logistics).

SPEAKER BIOS
WILLIAM NASH REYNOLDS, Ph.D. is the founder, President and Chief  
Science Officer of Least Squares Software and has been a principal  
researcher and innovator in the field of complexity for more than  
twenty years. Over the past eight years, he has focused on the role of  
complex systems in intelligence analysis, directing his research  
toward complexity-based analytic methodologies, which are of practical  
value to analysts in the Intelligence Community. In this capacity, Dr.  
Reynolds has conducted numerous intelligence analysis case studies  
assessing the impact of technology on efficiency and effectiveness in  
analytic practice. Dr. Reynolds holds a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics  
from the University of California at San Diego, and Bachelor’s Degrees  
in Physics and Comparative Literature from the University of  
Massachusetts at Amherst.

Selected Publications & Presentation
2009. Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth for Warning. Invited  
presentation at the National Intelligence Council Seminar on the  
Tradecraft of Warning, February 20, 2009, Arlington, VA.
2009.  Reynolds, William N. Breadth-Depth: A Quantitative Taxonomy of  
Method and Multimethod. In preparation.
2009.  Reynolds, W. N. and Moore, D. T. Advancing the Practice:  
Multimethodological Analysis for Intelligence. In preparation. 2006.  
Moore, David T. and Reynolds, William N. So Many Ways to Lie:  
Complexity of Denial and Deception. Defense Intelligence Journal 15(2):
95-116.


MARTA S. WEBER, Ph.D. is the founder of Applied Behavioral Sciences  
and a psychologist with thirty years of experience in clinical,  
forensic, and intelligence practice. Dr. Weber pioneered the use of in-
depth remote psychological profiling and introduced a comprehensive  
method to psycholinguistic analysis of speech and text to determine  
motivations, intention, and deception techniques in subjects  
internationally. She is a recognized expert in the analysis of  
organizational leadership. In addition to her Ph.D. in Psychology, she  
holds advanced degrees in Sociology and the History of Art. She  
received specialized training with the Federal Bureau of  
Investigation’s Behavioral Sciences Unit.  Dr. Weber has provided  
consultation and training to U.S. intelligence agencies since 2000;  
she has worked with LSS since 2005.

Selected Publications & Presentations
2008.  Human Capital Assessment in CI. Competitive Intelligence  
Magazine 11(6)
2006.  Leveraging Behavioral Sciences for Improved Intelligence  
Outcomes.  Paper presented to The Intelligence Summit. Arlington, VA.
2004.  Profiling for Leadership Analysis. CI Magazine 7(4).


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