power laws and social problems

[Tom Carter]

All -

   Interesting article in the most recent New Yorker (especially for  
all you Freakonomics fans . . .) taking a look at some social  
problems like homelessness, police brutality, and auto exhaust  
pollution.  The article by Malcolm Gladwell titled "Million-Dollar  
Murray" observes that there are some problems that make more sense to  
solve than to manage, because of power-law distributions of the  
"offenders."  Homelessness, for example, is (observed to be . . .)  
not a normally distributed problem (in terms, say, of length of time  
homeless), but rather power law distributed -- there is a relatively  
small number of chronically homeless individuals (most of the  
"homeless" are homeless for quite a short time).  And, those  
(relatively) few tend to cost enormous amounts in medical/social/
police services.  Cheaper just to give the chronics an apartment and  
a support system than to set up soup kitchens and temporary shelters  
to help the "average" homeless person.

   The article also makes some good points about conflicts between  
"morality" and "economic" sense, and democratic evenhandedness versus  
"special treatment" . . .  Helps explain why everybody should be  
taught something about power laws, fat tails, and how our  
expectations can be confounded . . .

   Anyway, worth reading.  Available here:   http://www.newyorker.com/ 
fact/content/articles/060213fa_fact

tom

[Roger Frye-2]

My wife and I are part of a program that donates free lunches and clothing  
to the needy.  My personal observations agree with the power law  
hypothesis, but I don't draw the same conclusions as the New Yorker  
article.  I think the shelters, soup kitchens and handouts do save lives  
and provide needed comfort.

For 3 weeks in a row, I fed an English professor who was out of work.  I  
haven't seen him for a couple of years since.  I assume he fit back into  
society.  Several of the people who come for handouts are single mothers  
with homes who appreciate help feeding and clothing their families.  And  
then there are the hard core people I see  regularlyuntil they get too  
sick to make it to the park, or they move to another town, or they don't  
dare be seen by somebody who abuses them.

So, while the economics may work out that intensive care for the hard core  
is more efficient than the general drain on the social system, I believe  
that the regular charities are needed too.
-Roger

[Pamela McCorduck]

Roger observes what I wondered as I was reading the article (actually  
two--one about bad dogs that bite, which also observes a power law,  
we assume the next hot topic by Malcolm Gladwell).  It seems the  
infrastructure for the people who don't need much still must be in  
place, even though you spend much larger amounts on the chronically  
homeless.


On Feb 13, 2006, at 11:35 AM, Roger Frye wrote:

> My wife and I are part of a program that donates free lunches and  
> clothing
> to the needy.  My personal observations agree with the power law
> hypothesis, but I don't draw the same conclusions as the New Yorker
> article.  I think the shelters, soup kitchens and handouts do save  
> lives
> and provide needed comfort.
>
> For 3 weeks in a row, I fed an English professor who was out of  
> work.  I
> haven't seen him for a couple of years since.  I assume he fit back  
> into
> society.  Several of the people who come for handouts are single  
> mothers
> with homes who appreciate help feeding and clothing their  
> families.  And
> then there are the hard core people I see  regularlyuntil they get too
> sick to make it to the park, or they move to another town, or they  
> don't
> dare be seen by somebody who abuses them.
>
> So, while the economics may work out that intensive care for the  
> hard core
> is more efficient than the general drain on the social system, I  
> believe
> that the regular charities are needed too.
> -Roger
>
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