This is a call to any weather nerds on the list.
My daughter and her new husband are among those fleeing coastal texas to day. From my pretty intense study of hurricane forecasting over the last several months, i have the impression that at the last instant the hurricane -- which I find myself oddly unable to call by name now that its aimed at one of my children -- will vear to the right, not because of something to do with hurricanes but because forecasters fear zig-zagging worst of all, they are slow to change a forecast in the first place if they think there is any danger that they might have to change it back. this principle actually has a name and is called the "least regret forecast". I think that forecasters are particulaly likely to hang tough if the least regret forecast is also the worst case forecast. This may be wishfull thinking on my part and if it doesnt occur Galveston will be oblilterated ... again .... and nothing will move in East Houston for a week at least.
I wish I could get her to go west to austin or St. A., but while she has moved away from the cost, she seems to be hunkered down in one of the "outlaw" houses in East Houton.
If anybody else is following this, I wish they would get in touch.
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Professor of Psychology and Ethology
Clark University
nickthompson at earthlink.net
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/nthompson at clarku.edu
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