As promised at Safari, here is a much more interesting future trading site:
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/ListClaimssome of the interesting propositions, with current market prices:
Bush will not "survive" his term(s): 0.18
Nuclear attack in the US by 2010: 0.22
Nuclear attack somewhere by 2010: 0.44 (long/short opportunity here?)
Terrorist attack in the US by 2010: 0.8
>=8.0 Richter quake on west coast by 2010: 0.39
P/NP proven distinct for some class of NP hard/complete: 0.3
3-SAT algorithm in O(2^S) by 2020: 0.51
Apple computer will "fail" by 2005: 0.06 (interesting price history here)
Linux will surpass Apple on desktops by 2006: no bids yet?
Major computer builder will not offer Microsoft preinstalled by 2005: 0.10
Deuterium/Palladium cold fusion "works": 0.18
Computer is Go champion by 2020: 0.50
No human on Mars by 2100: 0.39
Xprize won by 2007 (scaled): 0.3 (ie: the market thinks it will happen in
November 04)
And here's the interesting one: A "large" terrorism incident in the US
between 1998
and 2006. The price on this one had been trending down for a long time when
9/11 happened.
Jim
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