election odds
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An alternative to polling.
https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics?referral=Fc2BQNxuElGSe_1o8kmCS2Nd7ZgqdRLk&affid=10737 https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/ davew - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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and a little less bombastic but more academic (for better or worse) On 9/14/20 9:22 AM, Prof David West
wrote:
An alternative to polling. https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics?referral=Fc2BQNxuElGSe_1o8kmCS2Nd7ZgqdRLk&affid=10737 https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/ davew - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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In reply to this post by Prof David West
Is there any information on how thin these ‘markets’ are? I vaguely recall that at some time in the past (2016?) some people were placing bets in order to generate buzz for a candidate. And in advance, I:
—Barry On 14 Sep 2020, at 11:22, Prof David West wrote:
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In reply to this post by Prof David West
wonderful! I'd place a small bet on Kanye.
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In reply to this post by Barry MacKichan
I also believe these markets are at risk from being "thin" and "self-selecting"... the former for gambling addicts and the latter for wonks and academics... Our elections themselves are self-selecting for "those who give a
damn" (by some quality of a-damn). I don't think these betting markets reflect "intent" but rather
"belief" in the "put your money where your mouth is". If I were
a betting man I might well bet for who I thought showed the most
promising odds while voting against my own winning. E.G. Jon's
imaginary bet on Kanye. When my daughters were coming "of age" I told them (for the first
time) that I had parlayed the Savings Bonds my parents had put
aside for my college (which they didn't offer me until I was
*struggling* half-way through, but I still didn't cash) into a
still small but significant nut for *their college*. The Indian
Casinos were just opening up, and the betting age was still 18
(before they added liquor to the equation). I suggested that if
they wanted "an easy ride" in college they could take that stake
down and put it on "red or black" / "odd or even" on the roulette
table... if they won (just shy of 50/50 chance) then they'd have
a college experience closer to their friends who were being sent
off with a car and a credit card and all the bills routed to mom
and dad, and if they lost they'd have an experience closer to the
one I had (though my parent's savings bonds represent that they
*were* prepared to help me if/when needed). I then suggested
that if they didn't want to be burdened with my apparent
expectation of "going to college" they could put it down on "0"
with 37:1 odds and go forth into the world without advantage OR be
mini-trust-funders. As you (Barry) point out, the "thinness" would seem to allow for various forms of "gaming" this system. The Russian-bots in a bidding war against the Chinese-bots deciding our election (by persuading/dissuading *real* voters through these markets)? Or maybe these are just different fiddles for us to play while we burn our own culture to the ground with petty (and not so petty) disagreements. On 9/14/20 9:47 AM, Barry MacKichan
wrote:
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