covid19.healthdata.org
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Sorry, I have never been much good at this screen capture thang. Below are fragments of two pages from the IHME website, https://covid19.healthdata.org the same website from which I sent you a bit of cheerful FAQ, last night. You can get to any state and several countries, by clicking on the down arrow beside the heading, United States of America. The first screen shot shows how they understand what is going on in NM, where they say that we have no “stay at home order” implemented. And indeed, there seems to be more “bustle” on the streets than I would have expected. The second shows their prediction of resource demand for the US generally, which they claim will reach it’s peak in a few days. This just seems howlingly optimistic. I suppose they are thinking that the high population centers are peaking now, and whatever happens in the South won’t push us to a higher peak if those blue-state numbers are falling. Still …. The FAQ seems to suggest that this will be a nightmare in the rear view mirror as we all gather for the 4th of July Celebration on the Mall, with Trump soliciting adulation for his terrific response to the virus. This HAS to be nuts. What am I missing, here? Nick
Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Can you explain why you think estimates are optimistic? Their uncertainty shading gives them quite a bit of leeway. On 4/9/20 11:18 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > Sorry, I have never been much good at this screen capture thang. Below are fragments of two pages from the IHME website, > > > > https://covid19.healthdata.org > > > > the same website from which I sent you a bit of cheerful FAQ, last night. You can get to any state and several countries, by clicking on the down arrow beside the heading, United States of America. > > > > The first screen shot shows how they understand what is going on in NM, where they say that we have no “stay at home order” implemented. And indeed, there seems to be more “bustle” on the streets than I would have expected. > > > > The second shows their prediction of resource demand for the US generally, which they claim will reach it’s peak in a few days. This just seems howlingly optimistic. I suppose they are thinking that the high population centers are peaking now, and whatever happens in the South won’t push us to a higher peak if those blue-state numbers are falling. Still …. > > > > The FAQ seems to suggest that this will be a nightmare in the rear view mirror as we all gather for the 4^th of July Celebration on the Mall, with Trump soliciting adulation for his terrific response to the virus. This HAS to be nuts. What am I missing, here? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Hi, Glen,
Perhaps they seem optimistic to me only because mine have been so pessimistic. I have assumed that I am immobilized here in Santa Fe for the next year. I even put up a list on my wall of 365 days and have been crossing them off, one by one. What I see on that site suggests to me that I might actually get to my garden in Massachusetts by early June. I just heard an interview with Daniel Kahneman (who is in my age range) who says essentially that he expects to stay home for the rest of his life because of the disease. I just heard from Dave West (He's fine!) who decided to make a run for home from Amsterdam and essentially had a 747 to himself. Perhaps now is exactly the time to make a run for MA. So, you see, my thinking about all of this is deranged and intensified by its personal implications. So perhaps I ought to be keeping my thoughts to myself. I have my favorite dog in this fight; too much skin in this game. My pessimistic view is that until we are back to contact tracing levels everybody should stay home. Others seem to imagine essentially eliminating the disease from the population by social distancing in the next month. and then going back pretty much to business as usual. I WANT those "others" to be right, but I am having a hard time selling it to myself. At the minimum, any restarting would require public health departments to have the power to snatch contacts off the street, throw them in sterilized vans, and cart them off to motels to watch Fox News for two weeks. Apparently, people boarding airplanes in Wuhan, are doing so in hazmat gear. I just don't see that happening, here. Even at the current "peak", SW airlines is not screening passengers or taking temps at the gate. I read some where that Trump is losing a Billion dollars (a month? from the crisis. Hey, every cloud has a silver lining. Definitely deranged, Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, April 9, 2020 2:48 PM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org Can you explain why you think estimates are optimistic? Their uncertainty shading gives them quite a bit of leeway. On 4/9/20 11:18 AM, [hidden email] wrote: > Sorry, I have never been much good at this screen capture thang. > Below are fragments of two pages from the IHME website, > > > > https://covid19.healthdata.org > > > > the same website from which I sent you a bit of cheerful FAQ, last night. You can get to any state and several countries, by clicking on the down arrow beside the heading, United States of America. > > > > The first screen shot shows how they understand what is going on in > NM, where they say that we have no “stay at home order” implemented. And indeed, there seems to be more “bustle” on the streets than I would have expected. > > > > The second shows their prediction of resource demand for the US generally, which they claim will reach it’s peak in a few days. This just seems howlingly optimistic. I suppose they are thinking that the high population centers are peaking now, and whatever happens in the South won’t push us to a higher peak if those blue-state numbers are falling. Still …. > > > > The FAQ seems to suggest that this will be a nightmare in the rear view mirror as we all gather for the 4^th of July Celebration on the Mall, with Trump soliciting adulation for his terrific response to the virus. This HAS to be nuts. What am I missing, here? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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OK. This is definitely a different message from what I thought you said. I thought you were saying their estimates were optimistic. And since their estimates include their uncertainty bands, that includes not peaking till much later than what their chart might suggest, maybe 4.5k deaths PER DAY at the peak, 125k dead overall, etc. If we consider the outside of their uncertainty, that's not optimistic at all.
You can go back to MA right now. And if you're super careful, you can most likely do it without getting infected. So, your "pessimism" is not about the peak, total bed availability, or whatever. Your pessimism seems to have more to do with *you* (and your immediate clique). That you could go ahead and do what you need to do now, but won't, isn't pessimism about these estimates. It's fear for your own condition. That's understandable, of course, but not really about this estimate or its methods. On 4/9/20 2:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote: > Perhaps they seem optimistic to me only because mine have been so pessimistic. I have assumed that I am immobilized here in Santa Fe for the next year. I even put up a list on my wall of 365 days and have been crossing them off, one by one. What I see on that site suggests to me that I might actually get to my garden in Massachusetts by early June. I just heard an interview with Daniel Kahneman (who is in my age range) who says essentially that he expects to stay home for the rest of his life because of the disease. I just heard from Dave West (He's fine!) who decided to make a run for home from Amsterdam and essentially had a 747 to himself. Perhaps now is exactly the time to make a run for MA. > > So, you see, my thinking about all of this is deranged and intensified by its personal implications. So perhaps I ought to be keeping my thoughts to myself. I have my favorite dog in this fight; too much skin in this game. > > My pessimistic view is that until we are back to contact tracing levels everybody should stay home. Others seem to imagine essentially eliminating the disease from the population by social distancing in the next month. and then going back pretty much to business as usual. I WANT those "others" to be right, but I am having a hard time selling it to myself. At the minimum, any restarting would require public health departments to have the power to snatch contacts off the street, throw them in sterilized vans, and cart them off to motels to watch Fox News for two weeks. Apparently, people boarding airplanes in Wuhan, are doing so in hazmat gear. I just don't see that happening, here. Even at the current "peak", SW airlines is not screening passengers or taking temps at the gate. > > I read some where that Trump is losing a Billion dollars (a month? from the crisis. Hey, every cloud has a silver lining. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by thompnickson2
From what I've read, it seems to me that if the only way for the virus to be stopped is for enough people to become immune that it runs out of hosts in which to reproduce. Immunity could develop in at least three ways: a) be vaccinated (probably 2+ years off); b) have natural immunity (probably a low percentage, besides who wants to risk it?); or c) be infected and recover (thus *presumably* making them immune).The only purpose of flattening the curve is to try to reduce mortality (and maybe even reduce the permanent damage done to the body) by keeping the medical systems from becoming overwhelmed. Given how few people have been infected and then either died or recovered (fewer than 2 million infected out of 7.5 billion, i.e. 0.026%), we could repeat this curve flattening exercise a thousand times before it would burn itself out. Seems to me we have to either wait for a vaccine, or resign ourselves to the fact that we are going to get infected. Or just stay out in the cloud forest like I'm doing and never see anyone face to face again. Am I missing something? On Thu, Apr 9, 2020 at 4:49 PM <[hidden email]> wrote: Hi, Glen, .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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I don't think you're missing anything. But the numbers can't be trusted, optimistically or pessimistically. For example, we don't know how many asymptomatic people are really presymptomatic. If 25-50% of the tested/confirmed cases are thought to be asymptomatic, and that amount translates into the general population, then the number is larger than 2m/7.5b. Or, even if those we labelled asymptomatic were presymptomatic, the 80% mild symptom number will rise above 80%.
Those of us considering never shaking hands again in our lifetime, or never leaving home again, or whatever insane extreme are _catastrophizing_. It's a sign of low tolerance for ambiguity ... which I guess is typical for dorks like us ... but we should at least recognize it in ourselves. My prescription for Nick is to turn off the internet, smoke a little weed, and start reading a big fat novel. 8^) On 4/9/20 3:34 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote: > From what I've read, it seems to me that if the only way for the virus to be stopped is for enough people to become immune that it runs out of hosts in which to reproduce. Immunity could develop in at least three ways: a) be vaccinated (probably 2+ years off); b) have natural immunity (probably a low percentage, besides who wants to risk it?); or c) be infected and recover (thus *presumably* making them immune).The only purpose of flattening the curve is to try to reduce mortality (and maybe even reduce the permanent damage done to the body) by keeping the medical systems from becoming overwhelmed. Given how few people have been infected and then either died or recovered (fewer than 2 million infected out of 7.5 billion, i.e. 0.026%), we could repeat this curve flattening exercise a thousand times before it would burn itself out. > > Seems to me we have to either wait for a vaccine, or resign ourselves to the fact that we are going to get infected. Or just stay out in the cloud forest like I'm doing and never see anyone face to face again. Am I missing something? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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I suggest reading Gentleman in Moscow. Learn how to make the best of house (in this case hotel) arrest over a super long period of time. On Thu, Apr 9, 2020 at 5:07 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]> wrote: I don't think you're missing anything. But the numbers can't be trusted, optimistically or pessimistically. For example, we don't know how many asymptomatic people are really presymptomatic. If 25-50% of the tested/confirmed cases are thought to be asymptomatic, and that amount translates into the general population, then the number is larger than 2m/7.5b. Or, even if those we labelled asymptomatic were presymptomatic, the 80% mild symptom number will rise above 80%. George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
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My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos. "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion."From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.
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In reply to this post by gepr
Gary,
I think SOME PEOPLE think there is an intermediate possibility. When the numbers in a community get to zero, we hire a bunch of white vans and motel rooms, and a number of test kits, renewable, equal to at least twice the number of people in the community. OK, then, whenever anybody shows symptoms, we swoop down on them, and all of their recent contacts (which have been duly recorded on their cell phones), snatch them off the street, stuff them into motel rooms and lock the doors from the outside. We test them in three days. All that pass the test go free. Until they test negative, nobody get's out of that motel room. Oh, and, by the way: everybody who comes into the community from the outside goes into one of those motel rooms, too. Sage Inn is waiting to accommodate you. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, April 9, 2020 5:08 PM To: FriAM <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org I don't think you're missing anything. But the numbers can't be trusted, optimistically or pessimistically. For example, we don't know how many asymptomatic people are really presymptomatic. If 25-50% of the tested/confirmed cases are thought to be asymptomatic, and that amount translates into the general population, then the number is larger than 2m/7.5b. Or, even if those we labelled asymptomatic were presymptomatic, the 80% mild symptom number will rise above 80%. Those of us considering never shaking hands again in our lifetime, or never leaving home again, or whatever insane extreme are _catastrophizing_. It's a sign of low tolerance for ambiguity ... which I guess is typical for dorks like us ... but we should at least recognize it in ourselves. My prescription for Nick is to turn off the internet, smoke a little weed, and start reading a big fat novel. 8^) On 4/9/20 3:34 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote: > From what I've read, it seems to me that if the only way for the virus to be stopped is for enough people to become immune that it runs out of hosts in which to reproduce. Immunity could develop in at least three ways: a) be vaccinated (probably 2+ years off); b) have natural immunity (probably a low percentage, besides who wants to risk it?); or c) be infected and recover (thus *presumably* making them immune).The only purpose of flattening the curve is to try to reduce mortality (and maybe even reduce the permanent damage done to the body) by keeping the medical systems from becoming overwhelmed. Given how few people have been infected and then either died or recovered (fewer than 2 million infected out of 7.5 billion, i.e. 0.026%), we could repeat this curve flattening exercise a thousand times before it would burn itself out. > > Seems to me we have to either wait for a vaccine, or resign ourselves to the fact that we are going to get infected. Or just stay out in the cloud forest like I'm doing and never see anyone face to face again. Am I missing something? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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