covid question
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Given that 23-30 percent (US estimated numbers) up to 50 percent (Iceland reported numbers) of Covid positives are asymptomatic:
1) if you have the disease, but do not show symptoms, do you still develop an immunity after some period of time? 2) If a pregnant woman recovers from the disease, is her immunity passed along to the fetus? 3) Will a woman who recovers and has immunity, pass that immunity along to any future conceptions? 4) If asymptomatic cases do develop immunity, "herd immunity" will be attained much faster than projected. But what is the trade-off between the number of people who might be infected by an asymptomatic — and what is the window of time when the person is an infectious agent — and the contribution to herd immunity? Not expressing this last question very eloquently, but hope point is clear. davew ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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D
If we just agreed that we won't intubate anybody over 60, we could have this thing over in a jiffy. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Wednesday, April 1, 2020 10:31 AM To: [hidden email] Subject: [FRIAM] covid question Given that 23-30 percent (US estimated numbers) up to 50 percent (Iceland reported numbers) of Covid positives are asymptomatic: 1) if you have the disease, but do not show symptoms, do you still develop an immunity after some period of time? 2) If a pregnant woman recovers from the disease, is her immunity passed along to the fetus? 3) Will a woman who recovers and has immunity, pass that immunity along to any future conceptions? 4) If asymptomatic cases do develop immunity, "herd immunity" will be attained much faster than projected. But what is the trade-off between the number of people who might be infected by an asymptomatic — and what is the window of time when the person is an infectious agent — and the contribution to herd immunity? Not expressing this last question very eloquently, but hope point is clear. davew ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Prof David West
> Given that 23-30 percent (US estimated numbers) up to 50 percent (Iceland reported numbers) of Covid positives are asymptomatic: I believe that "asymptomatic" is a blurry concept in this case. There is "presymptomatic" and "subsymptomatic" and "cryptosymptomatic" even "cosymptomatic". Pre: Everyone, by definition, is presymptomatic when they are first exposed/infected. I get the impression that the delay in significant symptoms showing is somewhat variable (2-10 days?) Sub: Everyone has a different level of immune health and symptom susceptibility. I might notice a mild fever immediately while you might not. It seems that while the scope of symptoms has expanded with experience/reporting (nausea, blunted taste/smell, etc.), it appears that not every individual experiences every symptom, and some are more sensitive to certain symptoms than others. I'm not prone to fevers, so I *might* be very quick to notice my fever, for example. My partner has somewhat chronic sinus disturbances, so she might have symptoms masked or false-positived. Crypto: My example above might be crypto or co-symptomatic. An asthmatic or COPD or ??? might always be short of breath, and stronger than usual symptoms might be attributed to anxiety. Co: I don't believe there is any reason one cannot contract multiple viri at the same time... the general immune system does seem to be relevant... while having an influenza virus might give some Covid-like symptoms *and* if COVID is contracted, the symptoms might add, the general immune response to one virus may well help to slow the other one from getting a foothold. I don't know of the research in this area... there must be plenty. Also, the Kinsa IOT thermometer "health weather map" is a good example of co-symptoms. > > 1) if you have the disease, but do not show symptoms, do you still develop an immunity after some period of time? This is a good/important question. My intuition says that we *must*. For example, I have had no more than 1 or 2 influenza-like symptom bouts in the last 5 years while people around me have had 1 or 2 each winter. I am not normally a social-distancer (except for hermit-like tendencies) > > 2) If a pregnant woman recovers from the disease, is her immunity passed along to the fetus? I am pretty sure the placental barrier, for better or worse, inhibits that (evolution/selection suggests it is for the better in a larger sense) but I also believe that breast-feeding is one of the mechanisms for jump-starting the immune system... I have 2 daughters with one child each and both are sensitive/aware of these things... I suppose I could ask them what they know/believe.. > 3) Will a woman who recovers and has immunity, pass that immunity along to any future conceptions? While there is a lot of new epigenetics reported in the last 10 years, I think this one falls in the category of 2 above... the prime source of "inherited" immunity/resistance might be breast-feeding. Viva La Leche! > 4) If asymptomatic cases do develop immunity, "herd immunity" will be attained much faster than projected. I think the *sub*symptomatic are definitely fitting in this category. It seems possible (likely?) that sub-symptomatic is positively correlated with higher virus-specific immune-system response, but could also represent general immunology, possibly suppressing/obviating virus-specific responses? > But what is the trade-off between the number of people who might be infected by an asymptomatic — and what is the window of time when the person is an infectious agent — and the contribution to herd immunity? Not expressing this last question very eloquently, but hope point is clear. I think this is what someone will be able to determine forensically post-apocalypse (sub-apocalypse?) from the myriad experiments underway in each country/culture... BTW - I don't find the EU's multiple-approaches nearly as disturbing as some seem to. SE and NL are responding "similarly" to one another, in spite of moderately different cultures. NO and DE seem to be somewhat different from SE and NL, and FI is "yet another" approach as a "Nordic" country. This begs the issue somewhat of the tension between "globalization" and "localization?". I don't think it can be an either/or. I suspect Brexiteers and anti-EU and anti-Globalists are reveling in trying to show how so much free mixing (open-borders, reciprocal relations, etc.) can be a problem. But also it shows how quickly Spain/Portugal/Italy/France/Germany/etc can close or at least closely regulate their borders IN SPITE of having been EU's up for 20 years? - SteveS ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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I saw in a major media post (I forget which one) a reference to “asymptotic” cases. My ‘guess’ is that these are asymptomatic, but getting closer and closer to symptomatic. —Barry On 1 Apr 2020, at 14:48, Steven A Smith wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Steve Smith
David, barry, etc.
I have listened to a plethora of pod casts ... all a blur ... but the consensus on re infection seems to be that it will be impossible, at least for a time after infection is resolved. However, everybody admits, on close questioning, that this believe is based on an analogy with other similar viruses and NOT on any data with respect to COVID 19. By the way, SOME pets have tested positive, although there is no evidence of transmission via pets. Still, I would say social isolation would include not letting the neighbor's dog lick your hand, even IF it is on the end of a 6' leash. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith Sent: Wednesday, April 1, 2020 12:49 PM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] covid question > Given that 23-30 percent (US estimated numbers) up to 50 percent (Iceland reported numbers) of Covid positives are asymptomatic: I believe that "asymptomatic" is a blurry concept in this case. There is "presymptomatic" and "subsymptomatic" and "cryptosymptomatic" even "cosymptomatic". Pre: Everyone, by definition, is presymptomatic when they are first exposed/infected. I get the impression that the delay in significant symptoms showing is somewhat variable (2-10 days?) Sub: Everyone has a different level of immune health and symptom susceptibility. I might notice a mild fever immediately while you might not. It seems that while the scope of symptoms has expanded with experience/reporting (nausea, blunted taste/smell, etc.), it appears that not every individual experiences every symptom, and some are more sensitive to certain symptoms than others. I'm not prone to fevers, so I *might* be very quick to notice my fever, for example. My partner has somewhat chronic sinus disturbances, so she might have symptoms masked or false-positived. Crypto: My example above might be crypto or co-symptomatic. An asthmatic or COPD or ??? might always be short of breath, and stronger than usual symptoms might be attributed to anxiety. Co: I don't believe there is any reason one cannot contract multiple viri at the same time... the general immune system does seem to be relevant... while having an influenza virus might give some Covid-like symptoms *and* if COVID is contracted, the symptoms might add, the general immune response to one virus may well help to slow the other one from getting a foothold. I don't know of the research in this area... there must be plenty. Also, the Kinsa IOT thermometer "health weather map" is a good example of co-symptoms. > > 1) if you have the disease, but do not show symptoms, do you still develop an immunity after some period of time? This is a good/important question. My intuition says that we *must*. For example, I have had no more than 1 or 2 influenza-like symptom bouts in the last 5 years while people around me have had 1 or 2 each winter. I am not normally a social-distancer (except for hermit-like tendencies) > > 2) If a pregnant woman recovers from the disease, is her immunity passed along to the fetus? I am pretty sure the placental barrier, for better or worse, inhibits that (evolution/selection suggests it is for the better in a larger sense) but I also believe that breast-feeding is one of the mechanisms for jump-starting the immune system... I have 2 daughters with one child each and both are sensitive/aware of these things... I suppose I could ask them what they know/believe.. > 3) Will a woman who recovers and has immunity, pass that immunity along to any future conceptions? While there is a lot of new epigenetics reported in the last 10 years, I think this one falls in the category of 2 above... the prime source of "inherited" immunity/resistance might be breast-feeding. Viva La Leche! > 4) If asymptomatic cases do develop immunity, "herd immunity" will be attained much faster than projected. I think the *sub*symptomatic are definitely fitting in this category. It seems possible (likely?) that sub-symptomatic is positively correlated with higher virus-specific immune-system response, but could also represent general immunology, possibly suppressing/obviating virus-specific responses? > But what is the trade-off between the number of people who might be infected by an asymptomatic — and what is the window of time when the person is an infectious agent — and the contribution to herd immunity? Not expressing this last question very eloquently, but hope point is clear. I think this is what someone will be able to determine forensically post-apocalypse (sub-apocalypse?) from the myriad experiments underway in each country/culture... BTW - I don't find the EU's multiple-approaches nearly as disturbing as some seem to. SE and NL are responding "similarly" to one another, in spite of moderately different cultures. NO and DE seem to be somewhat different from SE and NL, and FI is "yet another" approach as a "Nordic" country. This begs the issue somewhat of the tension between "globalization" and "localization?". I don't think it can be an either/or. I suspect Brexiteers and anti-EU and anti-Globalists are reveling in trying to show how so much free mixing (open-borders, reciprocal relations, etc.) can be a problem. But also it shows how quickly Spain/Portugal/Italy/France/Germany/etc can close or at least closely regulate their borders IN SPITE of having been EU's up for 20 years? - SteveS ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by thompnickson2
Nick writes:
< If we just agreed that we won't intubate anybody over 60, we could have this thing over in a jiffy. >
And they've had *all their lives* to buy one and have in their garage. So irresponsible!
Marcus
From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of [hidden email] <[hidden email]>
Sent: Wednesday, April 1, 2020 11:04 AM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <[hidden email]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] covid question D
If we just agreed that we won't intubate anybody over 60, we could have this thing over in a jiffy. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Wednesday, April 1, 2020 10:31 AM To: [hidden email] Subject: [FRIAM] covid question Given that 23-30 percent (US estimated numbers) up to 50 percent (Iceland reported numbers) of Covid positives are asymptomatic: 1) if you have the disease, but do not show symptoms, do you still develop an immunity after some period of time? 2) If a pregnant woman recovers from the disease, is her immunity passed along to the fetus? 3) Will a woman who recovers and has immunity, pass that immunity along to any future conceptions? 4) If asymptomatic cases do develop immunity, "herd immunity" will be attained much faster than projected. But what is the trade-off between the number of people who might be infected by an asymptomatic — and what is the window of time when the person is an infectious agent — and the contribution to herd immunity? Not expressing this last question very eloquently, but hope point is clear. davew ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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It turns out I do have an O2 Cylinder, a full-face snorkel mask, a couple of compressed air sources including a manual bellows, a leftover windshield wiper apparatus (implicated in providing a periodic compression of a bladder/bellows) and various guages of tubing... I think I could rig *enough* of a breathing-assist to get someone through a *bit* of a crisis... I sure hope I don't have to.
For those ONLY with a strong morbid fascination... my favorite movie scene of all time:
From Ken Kesey's 1970 movie starring
Fonda/Sarrazin/Remick/Newman...
Unfortunately the only clip I have is dubbed in French but the most relevant rolls around 4:30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmRt-pJ6INY
it references for me how one can face a horrible death and still make the best of their last few minutes (Newman's cousin vs Newman who panics).
It is such a study in ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels
Oh yeh... and I think for each of us, we should insert: "won't intubate anyone over <insert your age-1>" to think this through with the right attitude. And maybe even consider "won't admit into a conventional hospital"
and I'm wondering if there has been a surge in the sales/creation of "plague-doctor" masks which were apparently the *practical* fashion for people trying to help during the black death... when they did at least understand "the germ theory" insomuch as to attribute it to "mal air" or "miasma"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_doctor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miasma_theory ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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