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Thanks for the elaboration, my "worst fears" trumped my "greatest
hopes" when I read the Wikipedia article...
The first rule of Fight Club is "you do
not talk about Fight Club"
Steve,
I mentioned the Bellamy Clubs then
and now, solely as an example of spontaneous generation of
hundreds of local groups to talk about the future. I mentioned
before I taught a class with Bellamy's grandson who was writing
a biography and i was told many a story about the clubs and
their evolution.
First, they were a self-organized,
spontaneous, emergent phenomena. Not sponsored, not directed,
just one neighbor talking to another, "say have you read this?"
It seems inevitable, and it was
the case that the clubs became "organized" and the discussion
"formalized" which killed the whole thing. Bellamy was appalled
by the eventual "findings" of the club and distanced himself
from them. And of course they dissipated as fast as they arose.
If the generative phase of the
clubs were to be replicated, it would probably have to be
on-line somehow and how you would prevent the discussion from
prematurely settling on a variation of the current general
political discussion instead of fully exploring alternatives — I
have no clue.
davew
On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, at 9:31 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
Dave -
I do remember your reference to the Bellamyists and probably
wrote a long-winded (well-over 300) commentary which I then
deleted.
What I remember of that (my aborted response) was somewhat
reactionary to Utopianism and Nationalism. In the spirit of
productive optimism, I realize(d) my reactionaryisms was maybe
not very productive. I don't want to devolve into the
splitting of hairs we are so fond of here in this forum.
With that caveat... I am struggling against those two things
I impute to what little I know of "the Bellamyists". "One
(hu)man's Utopia is another's Dystopia". And. "Nationalism
is (dangerously) out-of-scale Tribalism".
I guess I would ask why such a grandiose scale structure
would need to be put in place? Would not an emergence from
discussions among small groups (such as the threads on FriAM)
not be a more practical and perhaps "safer" route? Is such a
structure/container required, or perhaps it might be
inevitable? But then it would not be Bellamyists, but rather
DaveWestist?
With that in mind... perhaps it is worth discussing the
Bellamyites primary focus (as claimed in the Wikipedia Article
that is my only source) of "nationalizing industry". That
seems to be what the Left is leaning toward... or at least
regulating/taxing industry at the federal level to the point
that it IS effectively nationalized? What is the Right's
version of that? In the spirit of NeoLiberalism and
free-markets of which the Right is most fond, nationalization
is anathema.
And yet, it seems that the "free market" is best at
innovation... and once an industry has been commodified,
perhaps the next step IS to nationalization. There might
have been a time when gasoline stations had something
significantly different to offer, one from the other, but even
the detergents and oxygenators seem to have become pretty
standard(?lame assertion?) and the only difference is how big
is the big-gulp soda in the convenience store, is it filled
from the Coca Cola or Pepsi Cola pantheon and are more
triggered by a giant yellow clam-shell logo or a green baby
brontosaurus?
I'm entirely with you on the diversity of foodstuffs
referenced earlier... but IF/When I'm going to feed from the
same trough of the same hybrids as my fellow piggies, why put
so many different (or any?) labels on them? And then why not
plant your own garden with seeds exchanged with friends and
neighbors, localized to your conditions, and buy/trade what
you can't grow from small (tiny) farms within a short drive
(walk)?
And I agree on the liminal, though I see liminality
everywhere at all scales, like the fractality of an estuary
and this moment is more acute and offering/demanding more
focused/proaction? If we did live in our everyday liminality
more-better, then this would just be an extrema(ish) of
scale... but since we (mostly) don't, it feels like a change
in quality in it's quantity. There I go, splitting hairs?
- Steve
Steve,
This should be
a time between lightning and thunder, liminal, a time "when
all things are possible."
I would love to be optimistic,
even guardedly,
Prerequisite, perhaps, is for
everyone to accept Hywel's dictum, "Ah, but it is more
complicated than that" coupled with a heady dose of
agonizing reappraisal of one's unexamined positions.
Healthy doses, of "you have a point," "errors were made,"
"our ontology should incorporate those distinctions," etc.
A while back I spoke of the
Bellamy Clubs as a social / civic/ phenomenon focused on a
"constructive way forward." Something of that sort would be
required to instantiate your optimism.
davew
On Sun, Apr 19, 2020, at 7:14 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
Dave, et al -
These are fecund times. The time between the lightning
and the thunder - "when all things are possible". Or
maybe, if you have a more apocalyptic bent, the beginning
of the "end of times". William Gibson's "Jackpot"
perhaps (to be more ambiguous).
I think Churchill tried on (in oratorial style):
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the
beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the
beginning."
In closing your "trip report" a dozen posts back you
referenced once again, the likelihood of a violent clash
between Left and Right or Red and Blue as a next
logical/likely step in the path we seem to be stumbling
(shambling?) down right now.
The recent (armed) protests at state capitals, demanding
that the Governors "open up the state" do seem
foreboding. An almost self-abusive desire to trigger a
breakdown in social order.
The (""failing!!!!"" double-scare-quotes) New York
Times opinion piece The America We Need from 10
days ago (feels much longer in Corona Time) exposes one
side of the challenge (how modern society/America has been
failing) and a hopeful response (how this crisis could
help galvanize us to become who we need to be
collectively). I'd love to hear something from the Right
with an equally constructive perspective. Maybe I just
have my ear on the wrong rail but I only hear "boom or
bust" talk from the Right.
Living with one foot in each camp (Red and Blue) I
believe that the divide we feel is on one hand very real,
but on the other deliberately aggravated as a way to keep
us in dynamic tension (or more simply pitted-against one
another) while those with most power keep stirring us up
and raking off the top. Red/Right sees the threat of
government/wealthy/elite/??? one way while Blue/Left see
what I think is roughly the same threat very
differently. But it might very well be the very same
threat, and the pointy end is designed to keep us divided.
And lest we create a strong "other" to
reject/resent/hate/fear: "We have met the enemy, and
they is us".
The deficit-hawk, small-government GOP has been building
up a State like none before it, and while they (and the
NRA) are encouraging their loyal followers to arm
themselves to the teeth, double down on ammunition, all
the while militarizing the police, loading them up with
armored personnel carriers and fully-automatic weapons
(opposite the citizen's semi-autos), and bullet-proof
vests, helmets and shields to maintain overwhelming
force. Meanwhile, the Dems might be trying to nurture
us out of our dysfunction and misery, sometimes disabling
us more in the process, and the wealthy on that side are
raking their share off of that, elbow to elbow at the same
trough.
We ship our (two hybrid strains of tomato and two
germ-lines of beef) food halfway across the country (add
coffee, avocados and bananas - world) from
agri-industry-chemical soaked feed-lots and (formerly)
fertile valleys and plains, burning fossil fuels (not just
in the machines, but to make the hyper-fertilizer now
needed). Whether we shop at Trader Joes, or Whole Foods,
or Bob's Butcher or just order up Trump Steaks, we HAVE
built a house of cards which is bending under the weight
of this pandemic.
Why does it feel like a segment of the population just
wants to knock it down?
Is there a constructive route up and out of this mess?
The pandemic has exposed a LOT more of the weaknesses in
our economy/society as this current administration has
exposed the weaknesses in our government. It seems like
an opportunity to try to rebuild thoughtfully rather than
"tear it down" or "patch it back the way it was".
Guardedly Hopeful,
- Steve (574)
Nick,
There is truth in what you say, but only a bit.
I have certainly spoken as if "Science was a bunch of nasty people with vested interests acting in an exclusionary manner."
Hyperbole.
A better metaphor / analogy would be the way we have hybridized our food supply; e.g. 90 percent of all dairy cows have one of two bulls in their ancestry, there are one or two tomato hybrids, one or two strains of rice, wheat, corn, etc.
This creates a huge vulnerability — a novel pest or disease and presto, no food supply.
Now imagine that there are multiple species of investigation, thinking, knowledge.
Since the Age of Enlightenment, the western world has been hell bent on hybridizing but one of them — Formalism (aka, roughly, Science).
Yes, I believe that Formalism has attained such a privileged status that it tolerates no criticism and critics are "excommunicated" with prejudice.
I would like to think of myself as someone interested in growing heritage tomatoes in my garden and marveling at the differences in taste and texture and finding very deep value from the use of them in culinary creations.
davew
On Sat, Apr 18, 2020, at 8:58 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
Dave,
No, wait a minute! Thou slenderest me! For you, Science is a bunch
of nasty people with vested interests. Science, on that understanding,
has the power to exclude. For me, Science is a set of practices that
lead to understandings of experience that endure the test of time. It
is not the sort of thing that can exclude. If pot smoking in bubble
baths leads to understandings that endure the test of time, then it is
a scientific method. Something like that seemed to have worked for
Archimedes.
Nick
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
-----Original Message-----
From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, April 18, 2020 6:31 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of
anthropological observtions
Nick,
I won't lose the argument, because I pre-believe that, IF alternative
means with some kind of criteria for falsifiability and repeatability
THEN they should be incorporated into that which is deemed "Science" —
ergo there is no argument to lose.
If there is an argument — and there is clearly a difference of opinion
— it centers on the the issue of why Hermetic Alchemy, Acid
Epistemology, Anthropological Thick Description, Ayurvedic Medicine,
Adams' "rhetorical analysis" et. al. are, at the moment and for the
most part, excluded from Science.
davew
On Sat, Apr 18, 2020, at 5:28 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
Dave,
You're going to lose this argument with me eventually, because any
investigatory practice that works in the long run I am going to
declare to be part of "the scientific method." So if you declare that
discovery is enhanced by lying in a warm suds bath smoking pot, and
you can describe a repeatable practice which includes that as a
method, and that method produces enduring intellectual and practical
structures such as the periodic table, then I will simply say, "That's science."
I am not sure this works with my falsifiability schtik, but that must
have been at least 4 hours ago. So "before lunch".
Nick
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University
[hidden email] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
-----Original Message-----
From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, April 18, 2020 5:07 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] basis for prediction — forked from the tail end of
anthropological observtions
Consider three entities making 2016 political predictions and their predictions.
1- "cognoscenti" those citing poll data, Nate Silver (albeit as
everyone notes, the citation was more interpretation than citation),
pundits, et. al. — Trump, at various times, has 1/1000 to 1/3 chance of
winning the election.
2- Scott Adams - Trump "very likely" will win to "almost certain" he will win.
3- davew - Trump will win.
# 3 is a fool because he made no effort whatsoever to hedge his prediction.
The first group used traditional polling, statistical modelling, etc.
to come to their conclusions.
Scott Adams used none of those methods/tools but, as described in his
book — Win Bigly — the language and rhetoric analysis tools/techniques
he did use.
davew remains coy about how he came to his certainty.
QUESTIONS: Are there different approaches, different avenues,
different means, for acquiring "knowledge?" I am being vague here
because I do not know how to make the question precise. But it would
have something to do with different definitions of what is considered
data and different techniques/tools for digesting that data to form
conclusions — in this instance predictions.
If there are different approaches, is a comparative analysis of them
possible? desirable?
Different approaches — useful in different contexts? How to determine
appropriate contexts.
Or, is there but one avenue to knowledge — Science — and all else is
idiosyncratic opinion?
Personally, I think there is use in pursuing this type of question and
then using the answers / insights to makes sense of the multiple
conversations concerning COVID and the response thereto.
davew
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