What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
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What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
 
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Dear all, We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?” Exactly what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was appropriate or not? I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very little to do with validating the claim. I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
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Ooooh, ooooh, I know what I think: Verbal Behavior, the Weather Man, and the Fundamental Lie of Professional PokerOn Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
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Hi, Eric Your blog ends by saying that we predict probabilities, not events. It would seem a further de-mystification of the idea of probability to say that we predict relative frequencies of future events, not probabilities. I.e., a probability is just (≡) a prediction concerning an unknown relative frequency. The probability is not what we predict. It is the prediction. By the way, that blog must have been a great teaching tool, when you were still teaching. Much better than office hours because it forces students to formulate questions in writing. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Eric Charles Ooooh, ooooh, I know what I think: Verbal Behavior, the Weather Man, and the Fundamental Lie of Professional Poker
U.S. Marine Corps On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 12:49 PM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
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In reply to this post by Nick Thompson
You guys are Nuts and have too much time, That includes me. Somehow you have managed to braid together lies, probability and fake news. Perhaps many humans feel good whenever they influence others. Weather ladies telling to be happy whenever it goes above 30c ( I hate heat) Poker players trying to bluff me into shitting my pants and fold. Insurance agents trying to make me feel guilty of matters after I am dead. Politicians declaring they need money to defend me from American refugees. (Canada has just counted 22 Africans crossing a snow field between Minnesota and Manitoba. WTF) So assign a number within a range and you may get a rush from discovering I believed you. So do we lie or deceive each other just to feel in control of others. What else can be said to be positive about fake news. Perhaps, It made some one temporarily happy. Jehovah Witnesses still patrol streets fishing for converts. I have travelled very far without weather reporters just making my own sky watch assumptions. Just look up… vib This world has too many idle control freaks trying to find levity by crying wolf to dumb villagers. Oh great, when you see Vladimyr wearing a hat you can assume it’s raining. If you see me walking with a newspaper in the woods what does that mean… Yep, he is out for a constitutional stroll. From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Nick Thompson Dear all, We had an interesting conversation in the Friday meeting of the local congregation concerning the question, “What does it actually mean to say that there is a 50 percent chance of rain in Santa Fe tomorrow?” Exactly what operations would you have to go through to discover if that claim was appropriate or not? I took the position that whether it actually rained tomorrow had very little to do with validating the claim. I am wondering what those of you in the diaspora thought. Nick Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
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In reply to this post by Nick Thompson
Hi Nick, In an effort to diaspeirein(?), let me offer the following: According to the axioms of probability (maybe you heard this already on Friday), saying that something has a probability of 1 (or .5) doesn't mean that it will happen (or happen half of the time); it just means that the probability of something not happening is 0 (or .5). In terms of a weather forecast, (which I assume might be what you were getting at,) saying that there is a 50 percent chance of rain tomorrow could mean something like, conditioned on the present, rain happened 50 percent of the time in the past. Assume that the future and past are conditionally independent given the present and expect a 50 percent chance of rain tomorrow. Or maybe that's not not a not (?) sensible expectation? Best, Shawn On Sat, Feb 11, 2017 at 9:49 AM, Nick Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
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Well, I think the weather forecast does not particularly care about your particular location. It cares about what area you are in where they can make statements. So, the statement that it may rain in Santa Fe with a 50% probability either means that in some larger region of which your specific location is a part that it WILL rain all of the time in the time period over 50% of the area. Or that it may rain half the time over all of the area. Or that, given that you are in the area, it's 50% probable that it will rain upon you given that it will definitely rain in the area somewhere. Or something else. Not quite the same things. C On Thu, Feb 16, 2017 at 11:23 AM, Shawn Barr <[hidden email]> wrote:
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
Re: What does it mean to say that it will probably rain tomorrow?
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I'm pretty sure those probability terms refer to ensemble casting,
where some estimation of the error in the observational data is made, as well as the interpolation between, and and an ensemble of forecasts is made with initial conditions drawn distributions from matching that estimated variability - with the probability just being the frequency of that occurance in the ensemble run. One of my clients does this stuff for a living, and I sometimes peek over the shoulder at his work, but otherwise don't claim any expertise. -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders Visiting Senior Research Fellow [hidden email] Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove |
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