Washington Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

[thompnickson2]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/washington-coronavirus-cases.html

Glen,

What’s going on in Washington?  They got the message early, they learned the hardway, they’re not infected with (at least in the urban areas) with covid-denial, yet cases seem to be rising again?  I hate to have my stereotypes contradicted.  Can you please explain [away] these data?

Nick

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[gepr]

Of course I can't provide a guaranteed true explanation. I can only provide my guesses. I think the primary cause is that it's a very infectious disease and the reopening, even a sedate one like here in Thurston county, is infecting more people. Renee's seen a steady uptick at her hospital, though nowhere near overwhelming it.

As I've argued before, the important aspect is to buttress the infrastructure so the cases can be *handled*, not to avoid infection entirely. So, a slight increase in cases and a zeroing out of deaths and intensive care, is what I want to see. So, it's possible that a low slope increase in cases is a demonstration of *competence*. A "spike" in cases is a demonstration of incompetence, in particular if the slope in the case curve outstrips the medical infrastructure, then that's incompetent.

As usual, merely looking at the number of cases (or any single measure) is inadequate to estimate the competence of the response.

On 6/23/20 10:03 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/washington-coronavirus-cases.html
>
> What’s going on in Washington?  They got the message early, they learned the hardway, they’re not infected with (at least in the urban areas) with covid-denial, yet cases seem to be rising again?  I hate to have my stereotypes contradicted.  Can you please explain [away] these data?


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[thompnickson2]

Glen,

So, you don't sense that it's a blue/red county thing but a statewide decision to allow the disease to leak through?  Come to think of it, both CA and OR have similar curves.

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of ? u?l?
Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2020 11:13 AM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Washington Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

Of course I can't provide a guaranteed true explanation. I can only provide my guesses. I think the primary cause is that it's a very infectious disease and the reopening, even a sedate one like here in Thurston county, is infecting more people. Renee's seen a steady uptick at her hospital, though nowhere near overwhelming it.

As I've argued before, the important aspect is to buttress the infrastructure so the cases can be *handled*, not to avoid infection entirely. So, a slight increase in cases and a zeroing out of deaths and intensive care, is what I want to see. So, it's possible that a low slope increase in cases is a demonstration of *competence*. A "spike" in cases is a demonstration of incompetence, in particular if the slope in the case curve outstrips the medical infrastructure, then that's incompetent.

As usual, merely looking at the number of cases (or any single measure) is inadequate to estimate the competence of the response.

On 6/23/20 10:03 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/washington-coronavirus-cas
> es.html
>
> What’s going on in Washington?  They got the message early, they learned the hardway, they’re not infected with (at least in the urban areas) with covid-denial, yet cases seem to be rising again?  I hate to have my stereotypes contradicted.  Can you please explain [away] these data?


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[gepr]

Well, here in WA, it *is* a county by county thing. Our county applied for phase 3 last Wednesday. We haven't heard back from the state yet (as far as I know). The criteria for moving from one phase to another include number of cases, number of deaths, number of hospital beds, etc. Such things strike me as competent. I don't think it's helpful to think in terms of blue/red. The reds can be competent, too.

The point I tried to make in my posts with the Subject "credibility" is that competence lies in being careful and detailed.

On 6/23/20 10:16 AM, [hidden email] wrote:
> So, you don't sense that it's a blue/red county thing but a statewide decision to allow the disease to leak through?  Come to think of it, both CA and OR have similar curves.


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