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<P>Hello!</P> <P>Some comments on your notes.</P> <P>1) I think the dichotomy between "academic" validation and "market" validation is a false -- and from a business perspective, dangerous one. After the hype of the 90s, clients expect results/solutions which are grounded on something more than hype. There is a reason why often companies turn to OR and engineering professors for consulting -- not to get the most sophisticated or novel solution, but to get solutions/answers which are theoretically and empirically well grounded.</P> <P>2) This is a conversation that has already started -- we here in Santa Fe are not initiating it and if anything, are behind the times. Thus we should seek to incorporate ourselves to existing efforts: approach SFI by all means, but also the group at Carnegie Mellon, the group at George Mason, OR at Cornell, and others. And if you are looking for funding, start reading up on grant writing procedures for the NSF.</P> <P>Jose<BR><BR></P></DIV><BR><BR><BR> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>*************************</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>José Lobo</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Visiting Researcher</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Santa Fe Institute</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>1399 Hyde Park Road</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Santa Fe, NM 87501</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>office: 505-946-2765 </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>fax: 505-982-0565</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>mobile: 505-577-6822</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV><A href="mailto:[hidden email]">[hidden email]</A></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV>>From: "Robert Holmes" <[hidden email]> <DIV></DIV>>Reply-To: [hidden email] <DIV></DIV>>To: <[hidden email]> <DIV></DIV>>Subject: [FRIAM] V&M notes <DIV></DIV>>Date: Thu, 15 May 2003 08:09:09 -0600 <DIV></DIV>> <DIV></DIV>>Hi all, <DIV></DIV>> <DIV></DIV>>I've attached the notes from Mohammed's & my online chat re validation & <DIV></DIV>>methodology. The main points discussed were: <DIV></DIV>>1. Distinguish between (i) academics' and (ii) consultants' use of <DIV></DIV>>validation & methodology. Former through peer review, being seen to do the <DIV></DIV>>work 'the right way'; latter through whether it gives the right results or <DIV></DIV>>not. The overriding aims of (i) is to try to have a "basic" understanding <DIV></DIV>>about such varied topics as the economy, modes of social interactions, <DIV></DIV>>population dynamics, computational anthropology, etc.. while on (ii) is has <DIV></DIV>>more to do with trying to make better decisions that will have a direct <DIV></DIV>>effect on the bottom over some limited time horizon. <DIV></DIV>>2. Misuse of ABMs: <DIV></DIV>>* the misinterpratetion of many-to-one problems (in particular, when <DIV></DIV>>attempting to induce (micro) rules from observed (macro) behaviour; <DIV></DIV>>* Over claiming predictive abilities (clients expecting quantitiative <DIV></DIV>>predictions and getting qualitative ones). <DIV></DIV>>* Very limited attempts at validation with the real world. <DIV></DIV>>3. Proper use of ABMs: at least one proper use (both our experience) is <DIV></DIV>>starting from (micro) rules and assumptions and generating the (macro) <DIV></DIV>>behaviour that they imply. This deductive process is one-to-one in contrast <DIV></DIV>>to the inductive many-to-one. A great deal of value of ABM to the business <DIV></DIV>>world is in helping them understand more about the fallacy/veracity of their <DIV></DIV>>assumptions. This in itself would help them make better decisions without <DIV></DIV>>claims of predictive accuracy. <DIV></DIV>>4. How to proceed: <DIV></DIV>>* Ultimately, funding is needed <DIV></DIV>>* Involvement of credible parties (SFI/BizNet?) (probably not the <DIV></DIV>>established consultancies - either (i) already have their own approach or <DIV></DIV>>(ii) would be embarassed to admit to clients that they didn't. <DIV></DIV>>* Assemble a 'version 0.1' framrework - a brain-dump of as many <DIV></DIV>>practitioners' approaches as practical. <DIV></DIV>>5. Actions: <DIV></DIV>>* RH to explore SFI/BizNet aspect <DIV></DIV>>* Both to carry out their brain-dumps, try and get others to do same <DIV></DIV>>and attempt to incorporate. (If anyone has any ideas about how to do this, <DIV></DIV>>please pitch in). <DIV></DIV>> <DIV></DIV>>Robert <DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>MSN 8 with <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMPENUS/2740??PS=">e-mail virus protection service: </a> 2 months FREE*</html> |
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------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C31ADC.47324530 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Surely we could agree that business and academe have different constituencies with different emphasis. I'm not at all sure it is reasonable to characterize our recent commercial experiences as the "hype of the 90's"; there were successes and failures. Some of both were put together in part by very good scientists operating outside of academe and they were for the most part "theoretically and empirically well grounded". For the not so successful contracts, there were issues of 1. Engagement - did the client know what they wanted and were they able to communicate that consistently, 2. Coupling - was the line between decision support and operations well drawn? Was there a way to couple the models to actual data (or sensors and effectors)? Was there any notion of how to make use of the results? 3. Quality and acceptance - Did the client understand what quality meant in the contractual context and were they prepared to incorporate those efforts into the scope? 4. Delivery - Were things delivered more or less on schedule in a form the client and the clients constituency could use? Failures are often characterized as the result of hype. Silly recent articles in major business magazines have IT departments blaming the hype and arrogance of the vendor. I think there is plenty blame to go around, if we want to go down that path, though that's probably not terribly productive. I would say (A) that from the above criteria, "theoretical and empirically well grounded" is not nearly sufficient success criteria for commercial engagements and (B) on the ground experience with those always messy criteria will (and should) strongly influence ABM model validation efforts. >>There is a reason why often companies turn to OR and engineering professors >>for consulting -- not to get the most sophisticated or novel solution, but >>to get solutions/answers which are theoretically and empirically well grounded. As you might guess by now my take on the reasons is somewhat different, but this is certainly a testable hypothesis. The Bios sales folk and program managers are still around and we could ask them what they were up against. As to the second comment, its great to know that SFI, CMU, George Mason, and Cornell have these efforts underway, and we would certainly want to look at them closely. But I think we would want to have our own take on validation prior to those initial conversations in order to make the conversations more productive. In any case, insofar as there is an ABM "industry", we are a significant fraction of that industry; an industry-wide effort with academic participation might be called for in order to develp validation protocols (as opposed to individual methods). carl -----Original Message----- From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf Of Jose Lobo Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2003 8:20 AM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes Hello! Some comments on your notes. 1) I think the dichotomy between "academic" validation and "market" validation is a false -- and from a business perspective, dangerous one. After the hype of the 90s, clients expect results/solutions which are grounded on something more than hype. There is a reason why often companies turn to OR and engineering professors for consulting -- not to get the most sophisticated or novel solution, but to get solutions/answers which are theoretically and empirically well grounded. 2) This is a conversation that has already started -- we here in Santa Fe are not initiating it and if anything, are behind the times. Thus we should seek to incorporate ourselves to existing efforts: approach SFI by all means, but also the group at Carnegie Mellon, the group at George Mason, OR at Cornell, and others. And if you are looking for funding, start reading up on grant writing procedures for the NSF. Jose ************************* José Lobo Visiting Researcher Santa Fe Institute 1399 Hyde Park Road Santa Fe, NM 87501 office: 505-946-2765 fax: 505-982-0565 mobile: 505-577-6822 [hidden email] >From: "Robert Holmes" >Reply-To: [hidden email] >To: >Subject: [FRIAM] V&M notes >Date: Thu, 15 May 2003 08:09:09 -0600 > >Hi all, > >I've attached the notes from Mohammed's & my online chat re validation & >methodology. The main points discussed were: >1. Distinguish between (i) academics' and (ii) consultants' use of >validation & methodology. Former through peer review, being seen to do the >work 'the right way'; latter through whether it gives the right results or >not. The overriding aims of (i) is to try to have a "basic" understanding >about such varied topics as the economy, modes of social interactions, >population dynamics, computational anthropology, etc.. while on (ii) is has >more to do with trying to make better decisions that will have a direct >effect on the bottom over some limited time horizon. >2. Misuse of ABMs: >* the misinterpratetion of many-to-one problems (in particular, when >attempting to induce (micro) rules from observed (macro) behaviour; >* Over claiming predictive abilities (clients expecting quantitiative >predictions and getting qualitative ones). >* Very limited attempts at validation with the real world. >3. Proper use of ABMs: at least one proper use (both our experience) is >starting from (micro) rules and assumptions and generating the (macro) >behaviour that they imply. This deductive process is one-to-one in contrast >to the inductive many-to-one. A great deal of value of ABM to the business >world is in helping them understand more about the fallacy/veracity of their >assumptions. This in itself would help them make better decisions without >claims of predictive accuracy. >4. How to proceed: >* Ultimately, funding is needed >* Involvement of credible parties (SFI/BizNet?) (probably not the >established consultancies - either (i) already have their own approach or >(ii) would be embarassed to admit to clients that they didn't. >* Assemble a 'version 0.1' framrework - a brain-dump of as many >practitioners' approaches as practical. >5. Actions: >* RH to explore SFI/BizNet aspect >* Both to carry out their brain-dumps, try and get others to do same >and attempt to incorporate. (If anyone has any ideas about how to do this, >please pitch in). > >Robert ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- MSN 8 with e-mail virus protection service: 2 months FREE* ========================================================= FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv Meets Fridays 9AM @ Museum Hill Cafe Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C31ADC.47324530 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2715.400" name=3DGENERATOR></HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Surely=20 we could agree that business and academe have different constituencies = with=20 different emphasis. I'm not at all sure it is = reasonable to=20 characterize our recent commercial</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>experiences as the "hype of the 90's"; there were successes and = failures. Some of both</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>were=20 put together in part by very good scientists operating outside of = academe and=20 they were for</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>the=20 most part "theoretically and empirically well grounded". For the = not so=20 successful</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>contracts, there were issues of</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> 1. Engagement - did the client know what = they wanted=20 and were they able to communicate </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> that=20 consistently,</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> 2. Coupling - was the line between decision = support=20 and operations well drawn? Was there</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> a way to couple the = models to=20 actual data (or sensors and effectors)? Was there any=20 notion</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> of how to make use = of the=20 results?</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> 3. Quality and acceptance - Did the = client=20 understand what quality meant in the contractual</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> context and = were</FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20 class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> they=20 prepared to incorporate those efforts into the = scope?</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> 4. Delivery - Were things delivered more or = less on=20 schedule in a form the client and the clients</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> constituency could=20 use?</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>Failures are often characterized as the result of hype. = Silly=20 recent articles in major business magazines</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>have=20 IT departments blaming the hype and arrogance of the vendor. = I think=20 there is plenty blame </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>to go=20 around, if we </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>want to go down that path, though that's = probably not=20 terribly productive.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>I=20 would say (A) that from the above criteria, "theoretical and empirically = well=20 grounded" is not</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>nearly=20 sufficient success criteria for commercial engagements and (B) on the = ground=20 </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>experience with those always messy criteria will (and should) = strongly=20 influence </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>ABM </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>model=20 validation efforts.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2> =20 >><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#000000 size=3D3>There is = a reason why=20 often companies turn to OR and engineering professors=20 </FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#000000 size=3D3> >>for = consulting -- not=20 to get the most sophisticated or novel solution, but = </FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#000000 size=3D3> >>to get=20 solutions/answers which are theoretically and empirically well=20 grounded.</FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>As you=20 might guess by now my take on the reasons is somewhat different, but = this is=20 </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>certainly a testable hypothesis. The Bios sales folk and = program=20 managers are still around</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>and we=20 could ask them what they were up against.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>As to=20 the second comment, its great to know that SFI, CMU, George Mason, and = Cornell=20 have these</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>efforts underway, and we would certainly want to look at them=20 closely. But I think we would</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>want=20 to have </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>our own take on validation prior to those = initial=20 conversations in order to make </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>the=20 conversations </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>more productive. In any case, insofar as = there is an=20 ABM "industry", we </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>are a=20 significant fraction of that industry; an industry-wide = </FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20 class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>effort with=20 academic participation might be called for in order to develp validation = protocols (as </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>opposed to individual = methods).</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>carl</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE> <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> = [hidden email]=20 [mailto:[hidden email]]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Jose = Lobo<BR><B>Sent:</B>=20 Thursday, May 15, 2003 8:20 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20 [hidden email]<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [FRIAM] V&M=20 notes<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <P>Hello!</P> <P>Some comments on your notes.</P> <P>1) I think the dichotomy between "academic" validation and "market" = validation is a false -- and from a business perspective, dangerous = one. After=20 the hype of the 90s, clients expect results/solutions which are = grounded on=20 something more than hype. There is a reason why often companies turn = to OR and=20 engineering professors for consulting -- not to get the most = sophisticated or=20 novel solution, but to get solutions/answers which are theoretically = and=20 empirically well grounded.</P> <P>2) This is a conversation that has already started -- we here = in Santa=20 Fe are not initiating it and if anything, are behind the times. Thus = we should=20 seek to incorporate ourselves to existing efforts: approach SFI by all = means,=20 but also the group at Carnegie Mellon, the group at George Mason, OR = at=20 Cornell, and others. And if you are looking for funding, start reading = up on=20 grant writing procedures for the NSF.</P> <P>Jose<BR><BR></P></DIV><BR><BR><BR> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>*************************</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Jos=E9 Lobo</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Visiting Researcher</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Santa Fe Institute</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>1399 Hyde Park Road</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Santa Fe, NM 87501</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>office: 505-946-2765 </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>fax: 505-982-0565</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>mobile: 505-577-6822</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV><A = href=3D"mailto:[hidden email]">[hidden email]</A></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV>>From: "Robert Holmes" <[hidden email]> <DIV></DIV>>Reply-To: [hidden email]=20 <DIV></DIV>>To: <[hidden email]> <DIV></DIV>>Subject: [FRIAM] V&M notes=20 <DIV></DIV>>Date: Thu, 15 May 2003 08:09:09 -0600=20 <DIV></DIV>>=20 <DIV></DIV>>Hi all,=20 <DIV></DIV>>=20 <DIV></DIV>>I've attached the notes from Mohammed's & my online = chat re=20 validation &=20 <DIV></DIV>>methodology. The main points discussed were:=20 <DIV></DIV>>1. Distinguish between (i) academics' and (ii) = consultants' use=20 of=20 <DIV></DIV>>validation & methodology. Former through peer = review, being=20 seen to do the=20 <DIV></DIV>>work 'the right way'; latter through whether it gives = the right=20 results or=20 <DIV></DIV>>not. The overriding aims of (i) is to try to have a = "basic"=20 understanding=20 <DIV></DIV>>about such varied topics as the economy, modes of = social=20 interactions,=20 <DIV></DIV>>population dynamics, computational anthropology, etc.. = while on=20 (ii) is has=20 <DIV></DIV>>more to do with trying to make better decisions that = will have=20 a direct=20 <DIV></DIV>>effect on the bottom over some limited time horizon.=20 <DIV></DIV>>2. Misuse of ABMs:=20 <DIV></DIV>>* the misinterpratetion of many-to-one problems (in = particular,=20 when=20 <DIV></DIV>>attempting to induce (micro) rules from observed = (macro)=20 behaviour;=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Over claiming predictive abilities (clients expecting = quantitiative=20 <DIV></DIV>>predictions and getting qualitative ones).=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Very limited attempts at validation with the real = world.=20 <DIV></DIV>>3. Proper use of ABMs: at least one proper use (both = our=20 experience) is=20 <DIV></DIV>>starting from (micro) rules and assumptions and = generating the=20 (macro)=20 <DIV></DIV>>behaviour that they imply. This deductive process is = one-to-one=20 in contrast=20 <DIV></DIV>>to the inductive many-to-one. A great deal of value of = ABM to=20 the business=20 <DIV></DIV>>world is in helping them understand more about the=20 fallacy/veracity of their=20 <DIV></DIV>>assumptions. This in itself would help them make better = decisions without=20 <DIV></DIV>>claims of predictive accuracy.=20 <DIV></DIV>>4. How to proceed:=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Ultimately, funding is needed=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Involvement of credible parties (SFI/BizNet?) = (probably not=20 the=20 <DIV></DIV>>established consultancies - either (i) already have = their own=20 approach or=20 <DIV></DIV>>(ii) would be embarassed to admit to clients that they = didn't.=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Assemble a 'version 0.1' framrework - a brain-dump of = as many=20 <DIV></DIV>>practitioners' approaches as practical.=20 <DIV></DIV>>5. Actions:=20 <DIV></DIV>>* RH to explore SFI/BizNet aspect=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Both to carry out their brain-dumps, try and get = others to do=20 same=20 <DIV></DIV>>and attempt to incorporate. (If anyone has any ideas = about how=20 to do this,=20 <DIV></DIV>>please pitch in).=20 <DIV></DIV>>=20 <DIV></DIV>>Robert=20 <DIV></DIV></DIV><BR clear=3Dall> <HR> MSN 8 with <A href=3D"http://g.msn.com/8HMPENUS/2740??PS=3D">e-mail = virus=20 protection service: </A>2 months FREE*=20 = =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D FRIAM Complexity=20 Coffee listserv Meets Fridays 9AM @ Museum Hill Cafe Archives, = unsubscribe,=20 etc.:=20 http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</BLOCKQUOTE></B= ODY></HTML> ------=_NextPart_000_0008_01C31ADC.47324530-- |
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------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C31B45.EEF9D670 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Jose,=20 =20 1. We are not trying to create a dichotomy here. We are trying = to distinguish between the aims and objectives of the "academic" versus = a real world practitioner. This will most certainly affect whatever = methodology we aspire to create. Even putting labels ("academic" vs. = "market") aside, you have to a least agree that there is a significant = difference between building an ABM of an "investigatory" nature (e.g. = [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8].and many more) and trying to model an = aspect of a business to help make better decisions (e.g. [9] [10] [11] = [12] [13]). A clear example of how that distinction in aims influences = the creation of methodologies and standards can be seen in the CRISP-DM = standards http://www.crisp-dm.org. If I am researcher and I came up with = kind of neural network and I writing a paper, I wouldn't give a rat's = tail about CRISP-DM. On the other hand, if I've building a large = marketing clustering model for BMW I will try to adhere as closely as = possible to CRISP-DM in order to keep BMW and myself honest.=20 =20 2. Thus far and from the article you referenced and from work = done at CMU that Keith pointed out there are valuable approaches to = carrying out validation of ABM. Yet, those approaches fall short of = being methodologies or standards for working with ABMs in the real = world. They could certainly be part, but they are not the full picture = (they don't address any of the issues the Carl lists below).=20 =20 =20 References: =20 [1] R. Axelrod "The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of = Competition and Collaboration," 1997. [2] S. Guerin and D. Kunkle "Emergence of constraint in self-organizing = systems," Journal of Nonlinear Dynamic in Psychology and Life Sciences = vol. (in press), 2003. [3] F. Flentge, D. Polani and T. Uthmann "Modelling the emergence of = possession norms using memes," JASSS vol. 4, no. 4, pp. U57-U80, 2001. [4] I.S. Lustick "Agent-based modelling of collective identity: testing = constructivist theory," JASSS vol. 3, no. 1, pp. U3-+, 2000. [5] N.P. Hummon "Utility and dynamic social networks," Soc. Networks = vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 221-249, 2000. [6] B. McKelvey "Avoiding complexity catastrophe in coevolutionary = pockets: Strategies for rugged landscapes," Organ Sci. vol. 10, no. 3, = pp. 294-321, 1999. [7] L. Tesfatsion "Agent-based computational economics: Growing = economies from the bottom up," Artif. Life vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 55-82, = 2002. [8] C. Cioffi-Revilla "Invariance and universality in social = agent-based simulations," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. vol. 99 SU 3, = pp. 7314-7316, 2002. [9] R. Sikora and M.J. Shaw "Coordination mechanisms for multi-agent = manufacturing systems: Applications to integrated manufacturing = scheduling," IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 175-187, 1997. [10] D.W. Bunn "Forecasting loads and prices in competitive power = markets," Proc. IEEE vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 163-169, 2000. [11] D. Collings, T. Reeder, I. Adjali, P. Crocker and M. Lyons = "Agent-based modelling - treating customers as individuals not numbers," = BT Technol. J. vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 33-34A, 2000. [12] M.K. Lauren "Firepower concentration in cellular automaton combat = models - an alternative to Lanchester," J. Oper. Res. Soc. vol. 53, no. = 6, pp. 672-679, 2002. [13] M. Natter, A. Mild, M. Feurstein, G. Dorffner and A. Taudes "The = effect of incentive schemes and organizational arrangements on the new = product development process," Manage. Sci. vol. 47, no. 8, pp. = 1029-1045, 2001. Cheers,=20 Mohammed=20 ____________________________________________________ [hidden email] http://www.optomatica.com =20 mobile: +20 (10) 191 6650 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Carl Tollander=20 To: [hidden email]=20 Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2003 9:19 PM Subject: RE: [FRIAM] V&M notes Surely we could agree that business and academe have different = constituencies with different emphasis. I'm not at all sure it is = reasonable to characterize our recent commercial experiences as the "hype of the 90's"; there were successes and = failures. Some of both were put together in part by very good scientists operating outside of = academe and they were for the most part "theoretically and empirically well grounded". For the = not so successful contracts, there were issues of 1. Engagement - did the client know what they wanted and were they = able to communicate=20 that consistently, 2. Coupling - was the line between decision support and operations = well drawn? Was there a way to couple the models to actual data (or sensors and = effectors)? Was there any notion of how to make use of the results? 3. Quality and acceptance - Did the client understand what quality = meant in the contractual context and were they prepared to incorporate those efforts = into the scope? 4. Delivery - Were things delivered more or less on schedule in a = form the client and the clients constituency could use? Failures are often characterized as the result of hype. Silly recent = articles in major business magazines have IT departments blaming the hype and arrogance of the vendor. I = think there is plenty blame=20 to go around, if we want to go down that path, though that's probably = not terribly productive. I would say (A) that from the above criteria, "theoretical and = empirically well grounded" is not nearly sufficient success criteria for commercial engagements and (B) = on the ground=20 experience with those always messy criteria will (and should) strongly = influence ABM=20 model validation efforts. >>There is a reason why often companies turn to OR and engineering = professors=20 >>for consulting -- not to get the most sophisticated or novel = solution, but=20 >>to get solutions/answers which are theoretically and empirically = well grounded. As you might guess by now my take on the reasons is somewhat = different, but this is=20 certainly a testable hypothesis. The Bios sales folk and program = managers are still around and we could ask them what they were up against. As to the second comment, its great to know that SFI, CMU, George = Mason, and Cornell have these efforts underway, and we would certainly want to look at them closely. = But I think we would want to have our own take on validation prior to those initial = conversations in order to make=20 the conversations more productive. In any case, insofar as there is = an ABM "industry", we=20 are a significant fraction of that industry; an industry-wide effort = with academic participation might be called for in order to develp = validation protocols (as opposed to individual methods). carl -----Original Message----- From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On = Behalf Of Jose Lobo Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2003 8:20 AM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes Hello! Some comments on your notes. 1) I think the dichotomy between "academic" validation and "market" = validation is a false -- and from a business perspective, dangerous one. = After the hype of the 90s, clients expect results/solutions which are = grounded on something more than hype. There is a reason why often = companies turn to OR and engineering professors for consulting -- not to = get the most sophisticated or novel solution, but to get = solutions/answers which are theoretically and empirically well grounded. 2) This is a conversation that has already started -- we here in = Santa Fe are not initiating it and if anything, are behind the times. = Thus we should seek to incorporate ourselves to existing efforts: = approach SFI by all means, but also the group at Carnegie Mellon, the = group at George Mason, OR at Cornell, and others. And if you are looking = for funding, start reading up on grant writing procedures for the NSF. Jose ************************* Jos=E9 Lobo Visiting Researcher Santa Fe Institute 1399 Hyde Park Road Santa Fe, NM 87501 office: 505-946-2765=20 fax: 505-982-0565 mobile: 505-577-6822 [hidden email] >From: "Robert Holmes"=20 >Reply-To: [hidden email]=20 >To:=20 >Subject: [FRIAM] V&M notes=20 >Date: Thu, 15 May 2003 08:09:09 -0600=20 >=20 >Hi all,=20 >=20 >I've attached the notes from Mohammed's & my online chat re = validation &=20 >methodology. The main points discussed were:=20 >1. Distinguish between (i) academics' and (ii) consultants' use of=20 >validation & methodology. Former through peer review, being seen to = do the=20 >work 'the right way'; latter through whether it gives the right = results or=20 >not. The overriding aims of (i) is to try to have a "basic" = understanding=20 >about such varied topics as the economy, modes of social = interactions,=20 >population dynamics, computational anthropology, etc.. while on = (ii) is has=20 >more to do with trying to make better decisions that will have a = direct=20 >effect on the bottom over some limited time horizon.=20 >2. Misuse of ABMs:=20 >* the misinterpratetion of many-to-one problems (in particular, = when=20 >attempting to induce (micro) rules from observed (macro) behaviour; = >* Over claiming predictive abilities (clients expecting = quantitiative=20 >predictions and getting qualitative ones).=20 >* Very limited attempts at validation with the real world.=20 >3. Proper use of ABMs: at least one proper use (both our = experience) is=20 >starting from (micro) rules and assumptions and generating the = (macro)=20 >behaviour that they imply. This deductive process is one-to-one in = contrast=20 >to the inductive many-to-one. A great deal of value of ABM to the = business=20 >world is in helping them understand more about the fallacy/veracity = of their=20 >assumptions. This in itself would help them make better decisions = without=20 >claims of predictive accuracy.=20 >4. How to proceed:=20 >* Ultimately, funding is needed=20 >* Involvement of credible parties (SFI/BizNet?) (probably not the=20 >established consultancies - either (i) already have their own = approach or=20 >(ii) would be embarassed to admit to clients that they didn't.=20 >* Assemble a 'version 0.1' framrework - a brain-dump of as many=20 >practitioners' approaches as practical.=20 >5. Actions:=20 >* RH to explore SFI/BizNet aspect=20 >* Both to carry out their brain-dumps, try and get others to do = same=20 >and attempt to incorporate. (If anyone has any ideas about how to = do this,=20 >please pitch in).=20 >=20 >Robert=20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------= --- MSN 8 with e-mail virus protection service: 2 months FREE* = =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv Meets Fridays 9AM = @ Museum Hill Cafe Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: = http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C31B45.EEF9D670 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2726.2500" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Jose, </FONT></DIV> <DIV><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix =3D o ns = =3D=20 "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV> <DIV> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">1.<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-tab-count: = 1"> =20 </SPAN>We are not trying to create a dichotomy here. We are trying to=20 distinguish between the aims and objectives of the "academic" versus a = real=20 world practitioner. This will most certainly affect whatever methodology = we=20 aspire to create. Even putting labels ("academic" vs. "market") = aside,<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>you have to a least agree that = there is=20 a significant difference between building an ABM of an=20 "investigatory=94 nature (e.g. [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]=85and = many<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>more) and trying to model an = aspect of a=20 business to help make better decisions (e.g. [9] [10] [11] [12] [13]). A = clear=20 example of how that distinction in aims influences the creation of = methodologies=20 and standards can be seen in the CRISP-DM standards = http://www.crisp-dm.org. If=20 I am researcher and I came up with kind of neural network and I writing = a paper,=20 I wouldn=92t give a rat=92s tail about CRISP-DM.<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>On the other hand, if I=92ve = building a=20 large marketing clustering model for BMW I will try to adhere as closely = as=20 possible to CRISP-DM in order to keep BMW and myself honest.=20 <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: = Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">2.<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-tab-count: = 1"> =20 </SPAN>Thus far and from the article you referenced and from work done = at CMU=20 that Keith pointed out there are valuable approaches to carrying out = validation=20 of ABM. Yet, those approaches fall short of being methodologies or = standards for=20 working with ABMs in the real world. They could certainly be part, but = they are=20 not the full picture (they don=92t address any of the issues the Carl = lists=20 below). <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: = Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: = Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: = Arial">References:<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: = Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[1]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>R. Axelrod "The Complexity of=20 Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration,"=20 1997.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[2]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>S. Guerin and D. Kunkle = "Emergence of=20 constraint in self-organizing systems," Journal of Nonlinear Dynamic in=20 Psychology and Life Sciences vol. (in press), = 2003.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[3]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>F. Flentge, D. Polani and T. = Uthmann=20 "Modelling the emergence of possession norms using memes," JASSS vol. 4, = no. 4,=20 pp. U57-U80, 2001.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[4]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I.S. Lustick "Agent-based = modelling of=20 collective identity: testing constructivist theory," JASSS vol. 3, no. = 1, pp.=20 U3-+, 2000.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[5]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>N.P. Hummon "Utility and = dynamic social=20 networks," Soc. Networks vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 221-249,=20 2000.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[6]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>B. McKelvey "Avoiding = complexity=20 catastrophe in coevolutionary pockets: Strategies for rugged = landscapes," Organ=20 Sci. vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 294-321, 1999.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[7]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>L. Tesfatsion "Agent-based = computational=20 economics: Growing economies from the bottom up," Artif. Life vol. 8, = no. 1, pp.=20 55-82, 2002.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[8]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>C. Cioffi-Revilla "Invariance = and=20 universality in social agent-based simulations," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. = U. S. A.=20 vol. 99 SU 3, pp. 7314-7316, 2002.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[9]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>R. Sikora and M.J. Shaw = "Coordination=20 mechanisms for multi-agent manufacturing systems: Applications to = integrated=20 manufacturing scheduling," IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. vol. 44, no. 2, pp. = 175-187,=20 1997.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[10]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>D.W. Bunn "Forecasting loads = and prices=20 in competitive power markets," Proc. IEEE vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 163-169,=20 2000.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[11]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>D. Collings, T. Reeder, I. = Adjali, P.=20 Crocker and M. Lyons "Agent-based modelling - treating customers as = individuals=20 not numbers," BT Technol. J. vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 33-34A,=20 2000.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[12]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>M.K. Lauren "Firepower = concentration in=20 cellular automaton combat models - an alternative to Lanchester," J. = Oper. Res.=20 Soc. vol. 53, no. 6, pp. 672-679, 2002.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">[13]<SPAN=20 style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>M. Natter, A. Mild, M. = Feurstein, G.=20 Dorffner and A. Taudes "The effect of incentive schemes and = organizational=20 arrangements on the new product development process," Manage. Sci. vol. = 47, no.=20 8, pp. 1029-1045, 2001.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"></SPAN> </P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN> </P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Cheers, </SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN> </P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Mohammed </SPAN></P> <P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN><SPAN=20 style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: = Arial"><o:p>____________________________________________________<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:[hidden email]">[hidden email]</A> = <A=20 href=3D"http://www.optomatica.com">http://www.optomatica.com</A> = <BR>mobile:=20 +20 (10) 191 6650</o:p></SPAN></P></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=[hidden email] href=3D"mailto:[hidden email]">Carl = Tollander</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=[hidden email]=20 href=3D"mailto:[hidden email]">[hidden email]</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 15, 2003 = 9:19=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [FRIAM] V&M = notes</DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT><BR></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>Surely we could agree that business and academe have = different=20 constituencies with different emphasis. I'm not at = all sure=20 it is reasonable to characterize our recent = commercial</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>experiences as the "hype of the 90's"; there were successes = and=20 failures. Some of both</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>were=20 put together in part by very good scientists operating outside of = academe and=20 they were for</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>the=20 most part "theoretically and empirically well grounded". For the = not so=20 successful</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>contracts, there were issues of</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> 1. Engagement - did the client know what = they wanted=20 and were they able to communicate </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> that=20 consistently,</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> 2. Coupling - was the line between = decision support=20 and operations well drawn? Was there</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> a way to couple = the models=20 to actual data (or sensors and effectors)? Was there any=20 notion</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> of how to make use = of the=20 results?</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> 3. Quality and acceptance - Did the = client=20 understand what quality meant in the contractual</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> context and=20 were</FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2> they prepared to incorporate those = efforts into the=20 scope?</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> 4. Delivery - Were things delivered more = or less on=20 schedule in a form the client and the clients</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> constituency could=20 use?</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>Failures are often characterized as the result of hype. = Silly=20 recent articles in major business magazines</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>have=20 IT departments blaming the hype and arrogance of the = vendor. I=20 think there is plenty blame </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>to=20 go around, if we </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>want to go down that path, though that's = probably not=20 terribly productive.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>I=20 would say (A) that from the above criteria, "theoretical and = empirically well=20 grounded" is not</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>nearly sufficient success criteria for commercial engagements = and (B)=20 on the ground </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>experience with those always messy criteria will (and should) = strongly=20 influence </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>ABM </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>model validation efforts.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2> >><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#000000 = size=3D3>There=20 is a reason why often companies turn to OR and engineering professors=20 </FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#000000 = size=3D3> >>for=20 consulting -- not to get the most sophisticated or novel solution, but = </FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3D#000000 = size=3D3> >>to get=20 solutions/answers which are theoretically and empirically well=20 grounded.</FONT></FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>As=20 you might guess by now my take on the reasons is somewhat different, = but this=20 is </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>certainly a testable hypothesis. The Bios sales folk = and program=20 managers are still around</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>and=20 we could ask them what they were up against.</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>As=20 to the second comment, its great to know that SFI, CMU, George Mason, = and=20 Cornell have these</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>efforts underway, and we would certainly want to look at them = closely. But I think we would</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>want=20 to have </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>our own take on validation prior to those = initial=20 conversations in order to make </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>the=20 conversations </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>more productive. In any case, insofar = as there is=20 an ABM "industry", we </FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>are=20 a significant fraction of that industry; an industry-wide = </FONT></SPAN><SPAN=20 class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff = size=3D2>effort with=20 academic participation might be called for in order to develp = validation=20 protocols (as </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT = face=3DArial=20 color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>opposed to individual = methods).</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D964041317-15052003><FONT face=3DArial = color=3D#0000ff=20 size=3D2>carl</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE> <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT = face=3DTahoma=20 size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> = [hidden email]=20 [mailto:[hidden email]]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Jose=20 Lobo<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 15, 2003 8:20 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20 [hidden email]<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [FRIAM] V&M=20 notes<BR><BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <P>Hello!</P> <P>Some comments on your notes.</P> <P>1) I think the dichotomy between "academic" validation and = "market"=20 validation is a false -- and from a business perspective, dangerous = one.=20 After the hype of the 90s, clients expect results/solutions which = are=20 grounded on something more than hype. There is a reason why often = companies=20 turn to OR and engineering professors for consulting -- not to get = the most=20 sophisticated or novel solution, but to get solutions/answers which = are=20 theoretically and empirically well grounded.</P> <P>2) This is a conversation that has already started -- we = here in=20 Santa Fe are not initiating it and if anything, are behind the = times. Thus=20 we should seek to incorporate ourselves to existing efforts: = approach SFI by=20 all means, but also the group at Carnegie Mellon, the group at = George Mason,=20 OR at Cornell, and others. And if you are looking for funding, start = reading=20 up on grant writing procedures for the NSF.</P> <P>Jose<BR><BR></P></DIV><BR><BR><BR> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>*************************</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Jos=E9 Lobo</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Visiting Researcher</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Santa Fe Institute</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>1399 Hyde Park Road</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>Santa Fe, NM 87501</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>office: 505-946-2765 </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>fax: 505-982-0565</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV>mobile: 505-577-6822</DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV><A=20 href=3D"mailto:[hidden email]">[hidden email]</A></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV> <DIV></DIV>>From: "Robert Holmes" <[hidden email]> <DIV></DIV>>Reply-To: [hidden email]=20 <DIV></DIV>>To: <[hidden email]> <DIV></DIV>>Subject: [FRIAM] V&M notes=20 <DIV></DIV>>Date: Thu, 15 May 2003 08:09:09 -0600=20 <DIV></DIV>>=20 <DIV></DIV>>Hi all,=20 <DIV></DIV>>=20 <DIV></DIV>>I've attached the notes from Mohammed's & my = online chat=20 re validation &=20 <DIV></DIV>>methodology. The main points discussed were:=20 <DIV></DIV>>1. Distinguish between (i) academics' and (ii) = consultants'=20 use of=20 <DIV></DIV>>validation & methodology. Former through peer = review,=20 being seen to do the=20 <DIV></DIV>>work 'the right way'; latter through whether it gives = the=20 right results or=20 <DIV></DIV>>not. The overriding aims of (i) is to try to have a = "basic"=20 understanding=20 <DIV></DIV>>about such varied topics as the economy, modes of = social=20 interactions,=20 <DIV></DIV>>population dynamics, computational anthropology, = etc.. while=20 on (ii) is has=20 <DIV></DIV>>more to do with trying to make better decisions that = will=20 have a direct=20 <DIV></DIV>>effect on the bottom over some limited time horizon.=20 <DIV></DIV>>2. Misuse of ABMs:=20 <DIV></DIV>>* the misinterpratetion of many-to-one problems (in=20 particular, when=20 <DIV></DIV>>attempting to induce (micro) rules from observed = (macro)=20 behaviour;=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Over claiming predictive abilities (clients = expecting=20 quantitiative=20 <DIV></DIV>>predictions and getting qualitative ones).=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Very limited attempts at validation with the real = world.=20 <DIV></DIV>>3. Proper use of ABMs: at least one proper use (both = our=20 experience) is=20 <DIV></DIV>>starting from (micro) rules and assumptions and = generating=20 the (macro)=20 <DIV></DIV>>behaviour that they imply. This deductive process is=20 one-to-one in contrast=20 <DIV></DIV>>to the inductive many-to-one. A great deal of value = of ABM to=20 the business=20 <DIV></DIV>>world is in helping them understand more about the=20 fallacy/veracity of their=20 <DIV></DIV>>assumptions. This in itself would help them make = better=20 decisions without=20 <DIV></DIV>>claims of predictive accuracy.=20 <DIV></DIV>>4. How to proceed:=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Ultimately, funding is needed=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Involvement of credible parties (SFI/BizNet?) = (probably not=20 the=20 <DIV></DIV>>established consultancies - either (i) already have = their own=20 approach or=20 <DIV></DIV>>(ii) would be embarassed to admit to clients that = they=20 didn't.=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Assemble a 'version 0.1' framrework - a brain-dump = of as=20 many=20 <DIV></DIV>>practitioners' approaches as practical.=20 <DIV></DIV>>5. Actions:=20 <DIV></DIV>>* RH to explore SFI/BizNet aspect=20 <DIV></DIV>>* Both to carry out their brain-dumps, try and get = others to=20 do same=20 <DIV></DIV>>and attempt to incorporate. (If anyone has any ideas = about=20 how to do this,=20 <DIV></DIV>>please pitch in).=20 <DIV></DIV>>=20 <DIV></DIV>>Robert=20 <DIV></DIV></DIV><BR clear=3Dall> <HR> MSN 8 with <A href=3D"http://g.msn.com/8HMPENUS/2740??PS=3D">e-mail = virus=20 protection service: </A>2 months FREE*=20 = =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D FRIAM Complexity=20 Coffee listserv Meets Fridays 9AM @ Museum Hill Cafe Archives, = unsubscribe,=20 etc.:=20 http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com</BLOCKQUOTE></B= LOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> ------=_NextPart_000_006D_01C31B45.EEF9D670-- |
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Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this afternoon.
Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" paper. <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we might be able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to standard tools like RePast, Ascape, etc. -S ____________________________________________________ http://www.redfish.com [hidden email] 624 Agua Fria Street office: (505)995-0206 Santa Fe, NM 87501 mobile: (505)577-5828 |
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I'd certainly like to hear more.
We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between mathematical models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an equivalent to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, naturally. Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like a random summation. It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. Owen On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: > Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this > afternoon. > Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" > paper. > <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> > > Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we > might be > able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. > > It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to standard > tools > like RePast, Ascape, etc. > > -S Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM 87505 Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: 505-988-3787 [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com http://backspaces.net |
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Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math
On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: > *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > > > > I'd certainly like to hear more. > > We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between mathematical > models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to > have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an equivalent > to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, > naturally. > Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. > > After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need > a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the > trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like > a random summation. > > It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be > input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are > meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. > > Owen > > On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: > >> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this >> afternoon. >> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" >> paper. >> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> >> >> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we >> might be >> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. >> >> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to standard >> tools >> like RePast, Ascape, etc. >> >> -S > > Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM 87505 > Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: 505-988-3787 > [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com > http://backspaces.net > > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > |
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On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 02:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote:
> Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math MathML certainly has held promise for quite a while. But it's slow in being adapted. I just tried it with Safari (didn't work), IE (It crashed) and Mozilla (half way worked but complained it needed some fonts and the radical contents were black) It definitely is a promising direction. Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM 87505 Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: 505-988-3787 [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com http://backspaces.net |
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In reply to this post by Friam mailing list
Hey folks, analytic mathematics is a modeling language as well: We use
continuous differentiable equations to model a world that at its microstructure level is not continuous or differentiable, but we've justified to ourselves that it is ok to do that. How did we do that? Think about it. Bruce On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 01:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: > *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > > > > Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math > > On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: > >> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >> >> >> >> I'd certainly like to hear more. >> >> We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between mathematical >> models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to >> have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an equivalent >> to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, >> naturally. >> Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. >> >> After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need >> a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the >> trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like >> a random summation. >> >> It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be >> input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are >> meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. >> >> Owen >> >> On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: >> >>> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this >>> afternoon. >>> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" >>> paper. >>> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> >>> >>> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we >>> might be >>> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. >>> >>> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to >>> standard tools >>> like RePast, Ascape, etc. >>> >>> -S >> >> Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: 505-988-3787 >> [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com >> http://backspaces.net >> >> >> ========================================================= >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> > > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > |
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Okay, I thought about it. How did we do it?
-S ____________________________________________________ http://www.redfish.com [hidden email] 624 Agua Fria Street office: (505)995-0206 Santa Fe, NM 87501 mobile: (505)577-5828 > -----Original Message----- > From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf > Of Bruce Sawhill > Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 11:32 AM > To: [hidden email] > Cc: Bruce Sawhill > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes > > > *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > > > > Hey folks, analytic mathematics is a modeling language as well: We use > continuous differentiable equations to model a world that at its > microstructure level is not continuous or differentiable, but we've > justified to ourselves that it is ok to do that. How did we do that? > Think about it. > > Bruce > > > On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 01:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: > > > *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > > *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > > > > > > > > Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math > > > > On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: > > > >> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > >> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > >> > >> > >> > >> I'd certainly like to hear more. > >> > >> We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between mathematical > >> models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to > >> have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an equivalent > >> to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, > >> naturally. > >> Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. > >> > >> After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need > >> a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the > >> trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like > >> a random summation. > >> > >> It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be > >> input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are > >> meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. > >> > >> Owen > >> > >> On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: > >> > >>> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this > >>> afternoon. > >>> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" > >>> paper. > >>> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> > >>> > >>> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we > >>> might be > >>> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. > >>> > >>> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to > >>> standard tools > >>> like RePast, Ascape, etc. > >>> > >>> -S > >> > >> Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM 87505 > >> Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: 505-988-3787 > >> [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com > >> http://backspaces.net > >> > >> > >> ========================================================= > >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > >> > > > > > > ========================================================= > > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > > > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > |
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In reply to this post by Friam mailing list
>>How did we do that?
Well, we did that because for a long time we assumed that things ARE continuous all the way down (and up). All this digital, local bounded viewpoint is (however valid) pretty recent. The continuity assumption enabled us to produce tools that propelled us to place where we could see the assumption break down. And, because the tools seem to work for the things we've told ourselves are important at a human scale (though it might seem that we told ourselves they were important because our tools work there (which is one way of defining scale (itself a conceptual tool, urk!))). All of which kind of begs the question. On reflection, I don't feel the social/historical answers above are all that satisfying since they address more why than how. I'm posting them anyhow just to dismiss them and hopefully help focus the question. So, sorry for the distraction, but back to it: how did we do that? -----Original Message----- From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf Of Bruce Sawhill Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 11:32 AM To: [hidden email] Cc: Bruce Sawhill Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** Hey folks, analytic mathematics is a modeling language as well: We use continuous differentiable equations to model a world that at its microstructure level is not continuous or differentiable, but we've justified to ourselves that it is ok to do that. How did we do that? Think about it. Bruce On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 01:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: > *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > > > > Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math > > On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: > >> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >> >> >> >> I'd certainly like to hear more. >> >> We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between mathematical >> models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to >> have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an equivalent >> to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, >> naturally. >> Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. >> >> After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need >> a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the >> trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like >> a random summation. >> >> It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be >> input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are >> meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. >> >> Owen >> >> On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: >> >>> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this >>> afternoon. >>> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" >>> paper. >>> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> >>> >>> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we >>> might be >>> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. >>> >>> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to >>> standard tools >>> like RePast, Ascape, etc. >>> >>> -S >> >> Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: 505-988-3787 >> [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com >> http://backspaces.net >> >> >> ========================================================= >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> > > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > ========================================================= FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com |
Economists--an agent based model?
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http://www.foulds2000.freeserve.co.uk/economists.htm
--- Frank C. Wimberly 505 995-8715 or 505 670-9918 (mobile) 140 Calle Ojo Feliz [hidden email] or [hidden email] Santa Fe, NM 87505 http://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/wimberly |
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In reply to this post by Friam mailing list
We basically waited a while, and decided collectively it was a good
idea. Bruce On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 10:48 AM, Stephen Guerin wrote: > *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > > > > Okay, I thought about it. How did we do it? > > -S > > ____________________________________________________ > http://www.redfish.com [hidden email] > 624 Agua Fria Street office: (505)995-0206 > Santa Fe, NM 87501 mobile: (505)577-5828 > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On >> Behalf >> Of Bruce Sawhill >> Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 11:32 AM >> To: [hidden email] >> Cc: Bruce Sawhill >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes >> >> >> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >> >> >> >> Hey folks, analytic mathematics is a modeling language as well: We >> use >> continuous differentiable equations to model a world that at its >> microstructure level is not continuous or differentiable, but we've >> justified to ourselves that it is ok to do that. How did we do that? >> Think about it. >> >> Bruce >> >> >> On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 01:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: >> >>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>> >>> >>> >>> Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math >>> >>> On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: >>> >>>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> I'd certainly like to hear more. >>>> >>>> We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between >>>> mathematical >>>> models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to >>>> have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an >>>> equivalent >>>> to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, >>>> naturally. >>>> Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. >>>> >>>> After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need >>>> a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the >>>> trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like >>>> a random summation. >>>> >>>> It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be >>>> input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are >>>> meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. >>>> >>>> Owen >>>> >>>> On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: >>>> >>>>> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this >>>>> afternoon. >>>>> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" >>>>> paper. >>>>> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> >>>>> >>>>> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we >>>>> might be >>>>> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. >>>>> >>>>> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to >>>>> standard tools >>>>> like RePast, Ascape, etc. >>>>> >>>>> -S >>>> >>>> Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM >>>> 87505 >>>> Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: >>>> 505-988-3787 >>>> [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com >>>> http://backspaces.net >>>> >>>> >>>> ========================================================= >>>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> >>> >>> >>> ========================================================= >>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> >> >> >> ========================================================= >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> >> > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > |
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Still happy with the decision?
-----Original Message----- From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf Of Bruce Sawhill Sent: Monday, May 26, 2003 6:51 PM To: [hidden email] Cc: Bruce Sawhill Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes We basically waited a while, and decided collectively it was a good idea. Bruce On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 10:48 AM, Stephen Guerin wrote: > *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** > *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** > > > > Okay, I thought about it. How did we do it? > > -S > > ____________________________________________________ > http://www.redfish.com [hidden email] > 624 Agua Fria Street office: (505)995-0206 > Santa Fe, NM 87501 mobile: (505)577-5828 > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On >> Behalf >> Of Bruce Sawhill >> Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 11:32 AM >> To: [hidden email] >> Cc: Bruce Sawhill >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes >> >> >> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >> >> >> >> Hey folks, analytic mathematics is a modeling language as well: We >> use >> continuous differentiable equations to model a world that at its >> microstructure level is not continuous or differentiable, but we've >> justified to ourselves that it is ok to do that. How did we do that? >> Think about it. >> >> Bruce >> >> >> On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 01:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: >> >>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>> >>> >>> >>> Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math >>> >>> On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: >>> >>>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> I'd certainly like to hear more. >>>> >>>> We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between >>>> mathematical >>>> models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to >>>> have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an >>>> equivalent >>>> to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, >>>> naturally. >>>> Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. >>>> >>>> After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need >>>> a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the >>>> trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like >>>> a random summation. >>>> >>>> It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be >>>> input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are >>>> meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. >>>> >>>> Owen >>>> >>>> On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: >>>> >>>>> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this >>>>> afternoon. >>>>> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" >>>>> paper. >>>>> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> >>>>> >>>>> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we >>>>> might be >>>>> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. >>>>> >>>>> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to >>>>> standard tools >>>>> like RePast, Ascape, etc. >>>>> >>>>> -S >>>> >>>> Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM >>>> 87505 >>>> Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: >>>> 505-988-3787 >>>> [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com >>>> http://backspaces.net >>>> >>>> >>>> ========================================================= >>>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> >>> >>> >>> ========================================================= >>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> >> >> >> ========================================================= >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> >> > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > ========================================================= FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com |
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SInce that decision is about 250 years old, it might be worth
revisiting. Bruce On Monday, May 26, 2003, at 09:04 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: > > > Still happy with the decision? > > -----Original Message----- > From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf > Of Bruce Sawhill > Sent: Monday, May 26, 2003 6:51 PM > To: [hidden email] > Cc: Bruce Sawhill > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes > > > > > We basically waited a while, and decided collectively it was a good > idea. > > Bruce > > On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 10:48 AM, Stephen Guerin wrote: > >> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >> >> >> >> Okay, I thought about it. How did we do it? >> >> -S >> >> ____________________________________________________ >> http://www.redfish.com [hidden email] >> 624 Agua Fria Street office: (505)995-0206 >> Santa Fe, NM 87501 mobile: (505)577-5828 >> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On >>> Behalf >>> Of Bruce Sawhill >>> Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 11:32 AM >>> To: [hidden email] >>> Cc: Bruce Sawhill >>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes >>> >>> >>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>> >>> >>> >>> Hey folks, analytic mathematics is a modeling language as well: We >>> use >>> continuous differentiable equations to model a world that at its >>> microstructure level is not continuous or differentiable, but we've >>> justified to ourselves that it is ok to do that. How did we do that? >>> Think about it. >>> >>> Bruce >>> >>> >>> On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 01:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: >>> >>>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math >>>> >>>> On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: >>>> >>>>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>>>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> I'd certainly like to hear more. >>>>> >>>>> We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between >>>>> mathematical >>>>> models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able >>>>> to >>>>> have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an >>>>> equivalent >>>>> to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, >>>>> naturally. >>>>> Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. >>>>> >>>>> After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need >>>>> a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the >>>>> trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like >>>>> a random summation. >>>>> >>>>> It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be >>>>> input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are >>>>> meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. >>>>> >>>>> Owen >>>>> >>>>> On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this >>>>>> afternoon. >>>>>> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" >>>>>> paper. >>>>>> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> >>>>>> >>>>>> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we >>>>>> might be >>>>>> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. >>>>>> >>>>>> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to >>>>>> standard tools >>>>>> like RePast, Ascape, etc. >>>>>> >>>>>> -S >>>>> >>>>> Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM >>>>> 87505 >>>>> Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: >>>>> 505-988-3787 >>>>> [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com >>>>> http://backspaces.net >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ========================================================= >>>>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>>>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>>>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>>>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ========================================================= >>>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> >>> >>> >>> ========================================================= >>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> >>> >> >> ========================================================= >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> > > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > |
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Actually, Gibbs considered it enough of an open question 130 years ago
to introduce "On the equilibrium of heterogeneous substances" with a disclaimer that it assumed one could treat the real world as a continuum. Since he believed he was talking about atoms and molecules of matter undergoing phase transitions and chemical reactions, he knew that the real world was operating in Avagadro's number-tesimals while his mathematics was infinitesimal. -- rec -- Bruce Sawhill wrote: > > SInce that decision is about 250 years old, it might be worth revisiting. > > Bruce > > On Monday, May 26, 2003, at 09:04 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: > >> >> >> Still happy with the decision? >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On Behalf >> Of Bruce Sawhill >> Sent: Monday, May 26, 2003 6:51 PM >> To: [hidden email] >> Cc: Bruce Sawhill >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes >> >> >> >> >> We basically waited a while, and decided collectively it was a good >> idea. >> >> Bruce >> >> On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 10:48 AM, Stephen Guerin wrote: >> >>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>> >>> >>> >>> Okay, I thought about it. How did we do it? >>> >>> -S >>> >>> ____________________________________________________ >>> http://www.redfish.com [hidden email] >>> 624 Agua Fria Street office: (505)995-0206 >>> Santa Fe, NM 87501 mobile: (505)577-5828 >>> >>>> -----Original Message----- >>>> From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On >>>> Behalf >>>> Of Bruce Sawhill >>>> Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 11:32 AM >>>> To: [hidden email] >>>> Cc: Bruce Sawhill >>>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] V&M notes >>>> >>>> >>>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Hey folks, analytic mathematics is a modeling language as well: We >>>> use >>>> continuous differentiable equations to model a world that at its >>>> microstructure level is not continuous or differentiable, but we've >>>> justified to ourselves that it is ok to do that. How did we do that? >>>> Think about it. >>>> >>>> Bruce >>>> >>>> >>>> On Monday, January 5, 1970, at 01:17 PM, Carl Tollander wrote: >>>> >>>>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>>>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Printing a wad of math --- MathML - http://www.w3.org/Math >>>>> >>>>> On Thursday, May 22, 2003, at 11:00 AM, Owen Densmore wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> *** May 23 meeting to be at Jane's Cafe *** >>>>>> *** map at http://www.redfish.com/friam *** >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> I'd certainly like to hear more. >>>>>> >>>>>> We've been talking a bit lately about the tension between >>>>>> mathematical >>>>>> models and agent based models. It occurred to me that being able to >>>>>> have an ABM spit out a wad of math in some form that is an >>>>>> equivalent >>>>>> to its model would be fascinating..although maybe impossible, >>>>>> naturally. >>>>>> Think of "Print to Math" so to speak. >>>>>> >>>>>> After thinking about the sort of output needed, it seems you need >>>>>> a math language. Certainly APL of the 70's and 80's might do the >>>>>> trick, and today, Mathematica. You need a few new concepts like >>>>>> a random summation. >>>>>> >>>>>> It would be a form of "write-only" math .. meant mainly to be >>>>>> input to other systems, I suspect. Sorta like .ps and .pdf are >>>>>> meant to be "write-only" and input to printers and viewers. >>>>>> >>>>>> Owen >>>>>> >>>>>> On Monday, May 19, 2003, at 09:18 PM, Stephen Guerin wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> Dan and I had a conversation with John Miller of SFI/CMU this >>>>>>> afternoon. >>>>>>> Validation briefly came up and he gave us a copy of his '96 "ANTs" >>>>>>> paper. >>>>>>> <http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/wpabstract/199603011> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Seems relevant to this thread. If there's sufficient interest, we >>>>>>> might be >>>>>>> able to persuade John to give an informal lecture on this. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> It would be nice to see a methodology like this bolted on to >>>>>>> standard tools >>>>>>> like RePast, Ascape, etc. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> -S >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Owen Densmore 451 Camino Don Miguel Santa Fe, NM >>>>>> 87505 >>>>>> Work: 505-983-6305 Cell: 505-570-0168 Home: >>>>>> 505-988-3787 >>>>>> [hidden email] http://complexityworkshop.com >>>>>> http://backspaces.net >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> ========================================================= >>>>>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>>>>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>>>>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>>>>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ========================================================= >>>>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>>>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>>>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>>>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ========================================================= >>>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> >>>> >>> >>> ========================================================= >>> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >>> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >>> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> >> >> >> ========================================================= >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> >> ========================================================= >> FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv >> Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe >> Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: >> http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> > > > ========================================================= > FRIAM Complexity Coffee listserv > Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe > Archives, unsubscribe, etc.: > http://www.redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > |
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