The immigration debate - 10% ??

[Belinda Wong-Swanson]

There's a new book out by Juan Hernandez entitled "The New American Pioneers - Why Are We Afraid of Mexican Immigrants?" that is a quick and easy read that would provide the reader with some understanding of the unauthorized workers problem. In addition to having a few stories based on direct interview with undocumented workers in the U.S., he also cited proposals by international experts for a North American Community, similar in spirit to the European Community, including the creation of an investment fund with contributions by the U.S., Mexico and Canada. The goal is to reduce the wealth gap between the three nations. The fund will invest in infrastructure development in Mexico, such as roads, bridges, telecommunications, energy & water supplies, and post-secondary school education. [It mentioned that there are no roads from the south to the north of Mexico without going thru Mexico City!] It appears similar strategy was successful in raising the economy in Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Has any social scientists/economist performed modeling of the EU to see if raising the economies of these countries have helped or hurt England, France, Germany and the other already developed European Union nations?

In principle, it apperas that the proposal would create better paying job opportunities in Mexico in the near-term. In the long-term, it should enable foreign direct investments as well as further expansion of U.S. products into Mexico when the people's earnings have increased. The advantages for Mexico is that it is closer to the U.S. than China so presumably shipping & transportation costs should be lower. Mexico may also be much more cooperative in enforcing copyright and intellectual property laws than China.

Belinda

Belinda Wong-Swanson, Principal
Innov8 LLC, 624 Agua Fria Street, Santa Fe, NM 87501
Tel: [phone]
Email: bws at innov8llc.com
Url: www.innov8llc.com

-------- Original Message --------

> Return-Path: <friam-bounces at redfish.com> Mon Apr 03 05:53:39 2006
> Received: from madrid.hostgo.com [64.71.164.66] by MAIL26.webcontrolcenter.com with SMTP;
>    Mon, 3 Apr 2006 05:53:39 -0700
> Received: from localhost ([127.0.0.1] helo=madrid.hostgo.com)
> by madrid.hostgo.com with esmtp (Exim 4.52)
> id 1FQOXc-00055o-Pp; Mon, 03 Apr 2006 07:52:20 -0500
> Received: from [129.2.168.57] (helo=smtp.bsos.umd.edu)
> by madrid.hostgo.com with esmtp (Exim 4.52) id 1FQOXZ-00055Z-Fo
> for Friam at redfish.com; Mon, 03 Apr 2006 07:52:17 -0500
> Received: from [192.168.0.2] (71-32-106-214.albq.qwest.net [71.32.106.214])
> by smtp.bsos.umd.edu; Mon, 03 Apr 2006 08:51:53 -0400
> Mime-Version: 1.0 (Apple Message framework v746.3)
> In-Reply-To: <733E015F-C641-4A39-A66C-DD5F779345C7 at backspaces.net>
> References: <733E015F-C641-4A39-A66C-DD5F779345C7 at backspaces.net>
> Message-Id: <9203516B-24A2-459D-A13D-E19624AEDCF3 at anth.umd.edu>
> From: Michael Agar <magar at anth.umd.edu>
> Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2006 06:52:25 -0600
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <Friam at redfish.com>
> X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.746.3)
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The immigration debate - 10% ??
> X-BeenThere: Friam at redfish.com
> X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.6
> Precedence: list
> Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <Friam at redfish.com>
> List-Id: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <friam_redfish.com.redfish.com>
> List-Unsubscribe: <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com>,
> <mailto:Friam-request at redfish.com?subject=unsubscribe>
> List-Archive: <http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com>
> List-Post: <mailto:Friam at redfish.com>
> List-Help: <mailto:Friam-request at redfish.com?subject=help>
> List-Subscribe: <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com>,
> <mailto:Friam-request at redfish.com?subject=subscribe>
> Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="===============0577727830=="
> Sender: Friam-bounces at redfish.com
> Errors-To: Friam-bounces at redfish.com
> X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report
> X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - madrid.hostgo.com
> X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - innov8llc.com
> X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [47 12]
> X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - redfish.com
> X-Source:
> X-Source-Args:
> X-Source-Dir:
> X-Rcpt-To: <bws at innov8llc.com>
> X-SmarterMail-Spam: SPF_None
>
> I'd like to figure out a way to spend more time on this issue, partly  
> because of the timing and its political importance and relevance to  
> several eternal American historical themes, partly because of a few  
> scattered local conversations here in Santa Fe. By the way, I looked  
> at the web and one source reported that according to the 2000 census  
> 11.6% of the city of Santa Fe population was foreign born, and that  
> this was a major increase in the immigrant population since 1990.  
> "Foreign born" of course includes a lot of people from all over the  
> world and excludes anyone here illegally who the census didn't catch.
>
> What fascinates me about all this is a major shift of the sort that  
> the complexity/history literature deals with. Lot of co-evolution  
> going on out there. Consider the remittance economy, where  
> communities in one country receive money sent from community members  
> working in another country. A 2003 web source (http://pewhispanic.org/ 
> reports/report.php?ReportID=23) says that 18% of all adults in Mexico  
> receive money from US workers. A few years back a colleague from  
> Zacatecas ranked remittance second--I think it was second, high at  
> any rate--as a source of revenue for that city. Mexico isn't the only  
> place--the figure for El Salvador was 28%. A lot of people in Mexico--
> and other countries--stay afloat thanks to wages earned in the US.
>
> Another nonlinear tidbit: Given all the talk in the U.S. about  
> enforcement, it's interesting that another web source (http://
> www.nctimes.com/articles/2005/10/22/news/top_stories/
> 21_24_1610_21_05.txt) describes how enforcement in the workplace has  
> declined. Between 1999 and 2003 immigration work-site arrests fell by  
> 83%. The number of "notices of intent to fine" issued by the govt to  
> US companies fell from 427 in 1999 to 3 in 2004. My interpretation is  
> that they'll talk about borders but they won't mess with the  
> workplace--several bottom lines would get paddled since so many U.S.  
> firms depend on labor from illegal immigrants. Let's be tough on  
> immigration, but let's not mess with the economy.
>
> These are just a couple of adaptations on an issue that needs a lot  
> more knowledge than I have to figure out, and I'm not judging at the  
> moment, though I'm happy to judge a number of the recent political  
> proposals as taking inhumanity and stupidity to previously unimagined  
> heights. What's likely is that a  positive feedback phase transition  
> is well underway, if not already leveling out. Lack of income  
> opportunities in one country interact with increasing competitive  
> pressures calling for reduced labor costs in another that is nearby.  
> Or as the dictator Porfirio Diaz said a century ago, "Poor Mexico, so  
> far from God, so close to the United States." This is a lot bigger  
> than border fences and arrests, which at any rate don't deal with the  
> real processes at work.
>
> Mike
>
>
>
>
>
> On Apr 2, 2006, at 1:59 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:
>
> > Dede and I were just wondering -- just how massive IS the immigration
> > from mexico?
> >
> > The current guess at the number of undocumented mexicans in the
> > country is between 11 and 13 million (I've heard as high as 15, but
> > the politicos are tossing 11-13 around).
> >
> > The current (2005 census) population of mexico is 106 million.
> >
> > So if you add back the 11 or 13 then figure out how much that amount
> > is of the total population, you come up with roughly 10% (13M:
> > 10.92%, 11M: 9.40%, 15M: 12.39%) of mexico has decided to pick up and
> > leave, and in a very stressful way.
> >
> > TEN PERCENT!?  What in the heck is going wrong in mexico to cause
> > that massive an exodus?  I don't think we've seen that sort of
> > migration even during WWII!
> >
> > I don't want to be simplistic or alarmist, this is a very subtle
> > issue and needs to be solved gracefully.  But I was really surprised
> > to see that large a number of people leaving their homes.
> >
> >      -- Owen
> >
> > Owen Densmore
> > http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org
> >
> >
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org 

[Michael Agar]

Book sounds good.

Can't resist a quote I'm just reading in today's newspaper from Bill  
Frist, Senate Majority Leader.

"There are 3 million people every year coming across our borders  
illegally. We don't know who they are; we don't know what their  
intentions are. We absolutely must address this."



On Apr 3, 2006, at 7:24 AM, Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:

> There's a new book out by Juan Hernandez entitled "The New American  
> Pioneers - Why Are We Afraid of Mexican Immigrants?" that is a  
> quick and easy read that would provide the reader with some  
> understanding of the unauthorized workers problem. In addition to  
> having a few stories based on direct interview with undocumented  
> workers in the U.S., he also cited proposals by international  
> experts for a North American Community, similar in spirit to the  
> European Community, including the creation of an investment fund  
> with contributions by the U.S., Mexico and Canada. The goal is to  
> reduce the wealth gap between the three nations. The fund will  
> invest in infrastructure development in Mexico, such as roads,  
> bridges, telecommunications, energy & water supplies, and post-
> secondary school education. [It mentioned that there are no roads  
> from the south to the north of Mexico without going thru Mexico  
> City!] It appears similar strategy was successful in raising the  
> economy in Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Has any social scientists/
> economist performed modeling of the EU to see if raising the  
> economies of these countries have helped or hurt England, France,  
> Germany and the other already developed European Union nations?
>
> In principle, it apperas that the proposal would create better  
> paying job opportunities in Mexico in the near-term. In the long-
> term, it should enable foreign direct investments as well as  
> further expansion of U.S. products into Mexico when the people's  
> earnings have increased. The advantages for Mexico is that it is  
> closer to the U.S. than China so presumably shipping &  
> transportation costs should be lower. Mexico may also be much more  
> cooperative in enforcing copyright and intellectual property laws  
> than China.
>
> Belinda
>
> Belinda Wong-Swanson, Principal
> Innov8 LLC, 624 Agua Fria Street, Santa Fe, NM 87501
> Tel: [phone]
> Email: bws at innov8llc.com
> Url: www.innov8llc.com
>
> -------- Original Message --------

[Belinda Wong-Swanson]

Addressing border protection from terrorists and solving the root  
cause of undocumented workers in the US to me are too separate  
problems. Somehow politicians want to lump them into one big  
complicated mess.


On Apr 3, 2006, at 7:38 AM, Michael Agar wrote:

> Book sounds good.
>
> Can't resist a quote I'm just reading in today's newspaper from Bill
> Frist, Senate Majority Leader.
>
> "There are 3 million people every year coming across our borders
> illegally. We don't know who they are; we don't know what their
> intentions are. We absolutely must address this."
>
>
>
> On Apr 3, 2006, at 7:24 AM, Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:
>
>> There's a new book out by Juan Hernandez entitled "The New American
>> Pioneers - Why Are We Afraid of Mexican Immigrants?" that is a
>> quick and easy read that would provide the reader with some
>> understanding of the unauthorized workers problem. In addition to
>> having a few stories based on direct interview with undocumented
>> workers in the U.S., he also cited proposals by international
>> experts for a North American Community, similar in spirit to the
>> European Community, including the creation of an investment fund
>> with contributions by the U.S., Mexico and Canada. The goal is to
>> reduce the wealth gap between the three nations. The fund will
>> invest in infrastructure development in Mexico, such as roads,
>> bridges, telecommunications, energy & water supplies, and post-
>> secondary school education. [It mentioned that there are no roads
>> from the south to the north of Mexico without going thru Mexico
>> City!] It appears similar strategy was successful in raising the
>> economy in Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Has any social scientists/
>> economist performed modeling of the EU to see if raising the
>> economies of these countries have helped or hurt England, France,
>> Germany and the other already developed European Union nations?
>>
>> In principle, it apperas that the proposal would create better
>> paying job opportunities in Mexico in the near-term. In the long-
>> term, it should enable foreign direct investments as well as
>> further expansion of U.S. products into Mexico when the people's
>> earnings have increased. The advantages for Mexico is that it is
>> closer to the U.S. than China so presumably shipping &
>> transportation costs should be lower. Mexico may also be much more
>> cooperative in enforcing copyright and intellectual property laws
>> than China.
>>
>> Belinda
>>
>> Belinda Wong-Swanson, Principal
>> Innov8 LLC, 624 Agua Fria Street, Santa Fe, NM 87501
>> Tel: [phone]
>> Email: bws at innov8llc.com
>> Url: www.innov8llc.com
>>
>> -------- Original Message --------
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

[John Pfersich]

At 07:38 AM 4/3/2006 -0600, Michael Agar wrote:
>Book sounds good.
>
>Can't resist a quote I'm just reading in today's newspaper from Bill
>Frist, Senate Majority Leader.
>
>"There are 3 million people every year coming across our borders
>illegally. We don't know who they are; we don't know what their
>intentions are. We absolutely must address this."
I wonder how "they know" that "there are 3 million people every year coming
across our borders  illegally". I wild guess, or a scare tactic? I'd guess
the latter.