The immigration debate - 10% ??

[Owen Densmore]

Dede and I were just wondering -- just how massive IS the immigration  
from mexico?

The current guess at the number of undocumented mexicans in the  
country is between 11 and 13 million (I've heard as high as 15, but  
the politicos are tossing 11-13 around).

The current (2005 census) population of mexico is 106 million.

So if you add back the 11 or 13 then figure out how much that amount  
is of the total population, you come up with roughly 10% (13M:  
10.92%, 11M: 9.40%, 15M: 12.39%) of mexico has decided to pick up and  
leave, and in a very stressful way.

TEN PERCENT!?  What in the heck is going wrong in mexico to cause  
that massive an exodus?  I don't think we've seen that sort of  
migration even during WWII!

I don't want to be simplistic or alarmist, this is a very subtle  
issue and needs to be solved gracefully.  But I was really surprised  
to see that large a number of people leaving their homes.

     -- Owen

Owen Densmore
http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org

[Michael Agar]

I'd like to figure out a way to spend more time on this issue, partly  
because of the timing and its political importance and relevance to  
several eternal American historical themes, partly because of a few  
scattered local conversations here in Santa Fe. By the way, I looked  
at the web and one source reported that according to the 2000 census  
11.6% of the city of Santa Fe population was foreign born, and that  
this was a major increase in the immigrant population since 1990.  
"Foreign born" of course includes a lot of people from all over the  
world and excludes anyone here illegally who the census didn't catch.

What fascinates me about all this is a major shift of the sort that  
the complexity/history literature deals with. Lot of co-evolution  
going on out there. Consider the remittance economy, where  
communities in one country receive money sent from community members  
working in another country. A 2003 web source (http://pewhispanic.org/ 
reports/report.php?ReportID=23) says that 18% of all adults in Mexico  
receive money from US workers. A few years back a colleague from  
Zacatecas ranked remittance second--I think it was second, high at  
any rate--as a source of revenue for that city. Mexico isn't the only  
place--the figure for El Salvador was 28%. A lot of people in Mexico--
and other countries--stay afloat thanks to wages earned in the US.

Another nonlinear tidbit: Given all the talk in the U.S. about  
enforcement, it's interesting that another web source (http://
www.nctimes.com/articles/2005/10/22/news/top_stories/
21_24_1610_21_05.txt) describes how enforcement in the workplace has  
declined. Between 1999 and 2003 immigration work-site arrests fell by  
83%. The number of "notices of intent to fine" issued by the govt to  
US companies fell from 427 in 1999 to 3 in 2004. My interpretation is  
that they'll talk about borders but they won't mess with the  
workplace--several bottom lines would get paddled since so many U.S.  
firms depend on labor from illegal immigrants. Let's be tough on  
immigration, but let's not mess with the economy.

These are just a couple of adaptations on an issue that needs a lot  
more knowledge than I have to figure out, and I'm not judging at the  
moment, though I'm happy to judge a number of the recent political  
proposals as taking inhumanity and stupidity to previously unimagined  
heights. What's likely is that a  positive feedback phase transition  
is well underway, if not already leveling out. Lack of income  
opportunities in one country interact with increasing competitive  
pressures calling for reduced labor costs in another that is nearby.  
Or as the dictator Porfirio Diaz said a century ago, "Poor Mexico, so  
far from God, so close to the United States." This is a lot bigger  
than border fences and arrests, which at any rate don't deal with the  
real processes at work.

Mike





On Apr 2, 2006, at 1:59 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:

> Dede and I were just wondering -- just how massive IS the immigration
> from mexico?
>
> The current guess at the number of undocumented mexicans in the
> country is between 11 and 13 million (I've heard as high as 15, but
> the politicos are tossing 11-13 around).
>
> The current (2005 census) population of mexico is 106 million.
>
> So if you add back the 11 or 13 then figure out how much that amount
> is of the total population, you come up with roughly 10% (13M:
> 10.92%, 11M: 9.40%, 15M: 12.39%) of mexico has decided to pick up and
> leave, and in a very stressful way.
>
> TEN PERCENT!?  What in the heck is going wrong in mexico to cause
> that massive an exodus?  I don't think we've seen that sort of
> migration even during WWII!
>
> I don't want to be simplistic or alarmist, this is a very subtle
> issue and needs to be solved gracefully.  But I was really surprised
> to see that large a number of people leaving their homes.
>
>      -- Owen
>
> Owen Densmore
> http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

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[Jochen Fromm-3]

Is it really so surprising ? They want a better life: a job,
a car, a house, everything they can see in American TV series
every day. The USA is rich, Mexico and Latin America are poor.
The same situation here: Europe is rich and Africa is poor, and
many illegal immigrants try every year to get into the promised land.
The borders inside Europe vanish, but the borders to the outside,
especially to Africa, are fortified more and more, see for example
http://tinyurl.com/ggejj

-J.
 

-----Original Message-----
From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf
Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Sunday, April 02, 2006 10:00 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Friam
Subject: [FRIAM] The immigration debate - 10% ??

TEN PERCENT!?  What in the heck is going wrong in mexico to cause  
that massive an exodus?  I don't think we've seen that sort of  
migration even during WWII!

I don't want to be simplistic or alarmist, this is a very subtle  
issue and needs to be solved gracefully.  But I was really surprised  
to see that large a number of people leaving their homes.

[Jim Rutt]

Indeed the huge economic gradient is the driving force....   the
interesting to ask, though, is why the extreme gradient?  Moving 10 feet in
the desert of southern New Mexico makes something like an 8X difference in
income.

Material conditions identical.  Certainly shows the extreme power of ideas,
compounded over time.

The USA has had stable and more or less honest democratic government;
something close to open opportunity for white males for all of our history
and others more recently; and a quite ferociously competitive business
culture with upstarts regularly overturning incumbents.

Mexico had until 1920 had turbulent, dishonest government, rigid and
dishonest from 1920 until Fox's election; has had a very narrow "castilian"
aristocracy who have through means other than fair competition in the
marketplace forestalled upstarts and have suppressed real open opportunity;
and has a business culture of "managed" competition... compare the paper
work, for instance, to start a business in New Mexico (none required) and
Mexico (lots).

Both became independent at similar times, and with similar material bases
... and yet 185 years later (from mexican independence) an American is
worth 8X a Mexican in the economy.






At 08:05 AM 4/3/2006, you wrote:

>Is it really so surprising ? They want a better life: a job,
>a car, a house, everything they can see in American TV series
>every day. The USA is rich, Mexico and Latin America are poor.
>The same situation here: Europe is rich and Africa is poor, and
>many illegal immigrants try every year to get into the promised land.
>The borders inside Europe vanish, but the borders to the outside,
>especially to Africa, are fortified more and more, see for example
>http://tinyurl.com/ggejj
>
>-J.
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:Friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf
>Of Owen Densmore
>Sent: Sunday, April 02, 2006 10:00 PM
>To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Friam
>Subject: [FRIAM] The immigration debate - 10% ??
>
>TEN PERCENT!?  What in the heck is going wrong in mexico to cause
>that massive an exodus?  I don't think we've seen that sort of
>migration even during WWII!
>
>I don't want to be simplistic or alarmist, this is a very subtle
>issue and needs to be solved gracefully.  But I was really surprised
>to see that large a number of people leaving their homes.
>
>
>
>============================================================
>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

===================================
Jim Rutt
voice:  505-989-1115

[Scott Jaderholm]

I thought I'd share a personal touch to this issue. I lived in Mexico City
for a few years and saw a number of interesting things (at least to me). I'm
sure many of the observations are not unique to Mexico, but fairly common in
developing countries.

First, the % immigrating is not evenly distributed geographically. Some
areas, such as Michoacan, have had immense immigration, well above 10%.
Other areas, such as Mexico City, have immigration well below 10%. Of course
Mexico City is where many people from Michoacan, and other areas in the
South (Oaxaca, Chiapas, Guerrero) move.

Many Mexicans are very well educated. Tons of architects and lawyers
prepared tacos and drove taxis for me. I was surprised how many youth went
to college. When I looked at lower-class kids' middle school biology
homework I was surprised how difficult it was--it was stuff I didn't learn
until college.

Belinda mentioned that Mexico City might be more helpful than China in
intellectual property and copyright laws. It is nearly impossible to find
anyone with a VCR, and almost as difficult to find someone who doesn't have
a DVD player. Piracy is rampant. In Tepito, which is the piracy capital of
Mexico City, there are entire streets where all they sell are CD labels by
the thousands for all the popular albums. "Entrepreneurs" sell truck loads
of blank CD cases in a few minutes. Throughout the city there are CD shops
on almost every corner where the albums can be purchased. Software searches
near the Zocalo, which consist of a kid asking you what program and version
number, and then running to find it, are about as fast as google.

The impression we get of the PRI after hearing that it was in power for 70
years is hardly positive, and yet many many Mexicans are still  very
supportive of the party. Party propaganda is overwhelming. Many people allow
their houses to be painted with candidates and party names in giant letters
because the party agrees to repaint it months after the election--and they
can't afford to paint it themselves. Every inch of railing, post, sidewalk,
bridge, etc. is covered in political posters. In some elementary schools
kids even get their year pictures taken with Disney-world-like characters
holding big signs with the party's name on it. Others vote for the PRD
almost entirely because they give out free milk each month.

I was surprised how well off many people are. There is actually a huge
section of Mexico (and Mexico City) that are very very well off. A number of
them told me that they completely disagreed that the US the land of
opportunity--it was clear to them that it was Mexico.

It's surprising how entrepreneurial Mexicans are. I knew one man who owned
his own home, had a nice car, and sold candy outside a school. A huge huge
percentage of Mexicans own their own business: mostly taco and other food
stands, clothing and merchandising shops, transportation (vans or taxis),
and small grocery stores.

It's was surprising how well the market approach worked in transportation.
Pretty much anyone can buy a van or bus and run it on a route. There's still
a permit system, but I believe they're very fairly easy to get. I believe it
is because of the free entry into the market that transportation is so
accessible--very cheap, and very frequent.

Of course the water in Mexico City is undrinkable, even for natives. Rarely
do they drink purified water, unless it has strawberries, mangos, or some
other fruit in it (the availability of which makes me wonder why anyone
would want to come to the US). If they're going to buy a drink, they figure
they might as well buy Coca-Cola. It is amazing how much Coca-Cola is sold,
and is amazing how many poor families consume it for almost every meal.

Jim compared the democratic tradition of Mexico and the United States. I
think is relevant that whereas the United States is made up of people who
came from some of the most developed countries in the world, and quickly
became the most prosperous per capita country, Mexico was made up of chiefly
indigenous people who were essentially enslaved for three hundred years.

Mexicans are immensely concerned about the amount of corruption in their
government. A number of people told me of members of congress with whom they
attended college and said how they'd dropped out and later purchased fake
diplomas. Many complained that politicians are vastly overpaid, receiving
much more than US Senate compensation.

I knew a number of people who came to the US, leaving their families in
Mexico. None of them were the worst off. The people who had dirt floors,
little or really bad food (basically just tortillas), did not have nearly
enough money to be able to pay the coyotes. I believe the fee was something
like 15,000 pesos, or $1,500 USD. To get an idea, you can work 40 hour weeks
working construction and make 400 pesos/week, so it's over two-thirds of a
year's salary. In the same light, people who were upper-middle class, with
one car and an above average job (school teacher, bureaucrat, etc), loved to
visit the US but would never want to move here. Mexicans love Mexico and are
very proud of it--and with good reason.

The people that I knew who came to the US, as well as those going to Canada
legally, were lower-middle class. None of them had cars (which isn't really
important in Mexico City where you're car will get jacked and there's good
public transportation) but they all had decent homes and average jobs. I'm
sure they came for a number of reasons that are hard to nail down, and I
don't claim to know exactly what they were thinking, but it was my
impression that they came because they didn't want to be average. They
really liked what they heard about how much money they could make in a short
amount of time. Their families were very sad to see them go, and it was my
impression that it was always the father's initiative and that the wife's
wouldn't have minded remaining average, preferring to have their husbands
around.

I've definitely experienced some negative sentiment in the States towards
Mexicans who do not learn English, but it is my impression if Mexicans could
come to the United States legally many would do so with the principle reason
being to help their kids learn English.

Mexico is a very opposed to war. I remember hearing a nationally broadcast
speach by Vicente Fox when the US went into Iraq where he stressed that they
are a passive nation. Of course they haven't always been that way. When
Mexico entered WWII the masses were ecstatic because they thought they'd
finally have the chance to get back at the US for invading them. It wasn't
until hours later that they realized to their surprise that they hadn't
joined the Axis. Although Mexico isn't involved in Iraq, many Mexicans are
there as members of the US military and so Mexicans are very concerned with
it.

It is my impression that it's hard to make a Mexican feel guilty for
crossing the border illegally. As they see it, Texas, California, etc were
all Mexico originally, and the US took that land from them through conquest,
war, blackmail, and deception. They are not attacking us, stealing our land.
They're coming peacefully, working for us, and buying from us. Relatively,
it doesn't seem bad enough to fuss about.

Crime in Mexico, and especially Mexico City, is a serious issue, and one
that factors in prominently in the decision to come to the US. I suspect
that well over half the adults in Mexico City have been assaulted: burglary,
car jacking, theft, or robbery. Buses are routinely hijacked and banks are
robbed almost daily. You hear warnings about taxi drivers kidnapping you,
and believe me, they're true. But at the same time, most taxi drivers are
more scared that you will assault them.

Well, I've written far too much, and if any of you have read down to here
I'll be very surprised. I realize that I've made a lot of stereotypes and
assumptions--I apologize. They are only my impressions and what I
experienced and I recognize that they are bound to be completely false in
many cases. I hope that nothing I've said is offensive. I don't purport to
know the solution to the issue of illegal immigration, and I have nothing
but the highest esteem for Mexicans and Mexico.

--Scott

On 4/2/06, Owen Densmore <owen at backspaces.net> wrote:

>
> Dede and I were just wondering -- just how massive IS the immigration
> from mexico?
>
> The current guess at the number of undocumented mexicans in the
> country is between 11 and 13 million (I've heard as high as 15, but
> the politicos are tossing 11-13 around).
>
> The current (2005 census) population of mexico is 106 million.
>
> So if you add back the 11 or 13 then figure out how much that amount
> is of the total population, you come up with roughly 10% (13M:
> 10.92%, 11M: 9.40%, 15M: 12.39%) of mexico has decided to pick up and
> leave, and in a very stressful way.
>
> TEN PERCENT!?  What in the heck is going wrong in mexico to cause
> that massive an exodus?  I don't think we've seen that sort of
> migration even during WWII!
>
> I don't want to be simplistic or alarmist, this is a very subtle
> issue and needs to be solved gracefully.  But I was really surprised
> to see that large a number of people leaving their homes.
>
>      -- Owen
>
> Owen Densmore
> http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

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[Belinda Wong-Swanson]

I am working on the Mexican Immigrant issue for the Santa Fe Future
Program. My team and I interviewed some undocumented workers last year.
One of the things we learned is that before the tightening of the
border, the undocumented workers were able to go back and forth across
the border. When the economy was good, they would come over here to find
work. When the economy was bad, they would go back. And they were able
to go home and visit their families for Christmas and then come back
again. Since the border tightened up after 11 Sep 2001, those who make
it here do not dare to return, for fear that they will be caught and
won't be able to get back here again. Some ended up hiring coyotes to
bring their families here so they are not separated from their families
with no end in sight. Those already here just stay here under the
shadows and won't go back to Mexico.

It appears that an un-intended consequence of tightening the border was
that we are enlarging the number of undocumented immigrants instead of
reducing it!

Santa Fe is a safe haven for unauthorized immigrant workers: the City
Police will not spend resources to round up unauthorized immigrants;
they do not ask people their immigration status when they report a
crime. City offices do not ask client for their immigration status when
they provide services. New Mexico is one of a few states that would give
out drivers license with a Tax Identification Number or Mexico Consular
Identification Card, not necessarily a social security number. In 2005,
New Mexico passed a law so that students can be accepted to the public
institutions of higher learning in New Mexico regardless of the
immigration status. In addition, they are eligible for financial aid and
in-state tuition if certain conditions are met. In spite of Santa Fe's
and NM's immigration-tolerant policies, the undocumented immigrant
workers told us that they live in fear. They do not dare to venture far
beyond Santa Fe and risk getting caught. They do not dare to report
abuses by employers and landlords for fear they will be reported to the
Immigration & Naturalization agents.

Majority of the undocumented workers are law abiding citizens who pay
taxes and social security. The IRS grants ITIN (Individual tax
identification number, I believe) without asking for immigration status.
(My mother from Hong Kong had several, each time she bought a piece of
property, she got a new one but that is another problem that yours truly
had to deal with). Even if only 10 million of the 12 million
undocumented workers pay taxes, and assuming they only pay $1000 in
federal taxes, that is $10 billion revenue the IRS is getting, that is
why they don't care. On top of that, the workers also pay social
security which they are unlikely to be able to draw future benefits.

Why are we spending billions of dollars to build walls and fences and
prisons to keep out people who are contributing tens of billions of
dollars to our tax revenue and economy?

Belinda


Scott Jaderholm wrote:

> I thought I'd share a personal touch to this issue. I lived in Mexico
> City for a few years and saw a number of interesting things (at least
> to me). I'm sure many of the observations are not unique to Mexico,
> but fairly common in developing countries.
>
> First, the % immigrating is not evenly distributed geographically.
> Some areas, such as Michoacan, have had immense immigration, well
> above 10%. Other areas, such as Mexico City, have immigration well
> below 10%. Of course Mexico City is where many people from Michoacan,
> and other areas in the South (Oaxaca, Chiapas, Guerrero) move.
>
> Many Mexicans are very well educated. Tons of architects and lawyers
> prepared tacos and drove taxis for me. I was surprised how many youth
> went to college. When I looked at lower-class kids' middle school
> biology homework I was surprised how difficult it was--it was stuff I
> didn't learn until college.
>
> Belinda mentioned that Mexico City might be more helpful than China in
> intellectual property and copyright laws. It is nearly impossible to
> find anyone with a VCR, and almost as difficult to find someone who
> doesn't have a DVD player. Piracy is rampant. In Tepito, which is the
> piracy capital of Mexico City, there are entire streets where all they
> sell are CD labels by the thousands for all the popular albums.
> "Entrepreneurs" sell truck loads of blank CD cases in a few minutes.
> Throughout the city there are CD shops on almost every corner where
> the albums can be purchased. Software searches near the Zocalo, which
> consist of a kid asking you what program and version number, and then
> running to find it, are about as fast as google.
>
> The impression we get of the PRI after hearing that it was in power
> for 70 years is hardly positive, and yet many many Mexicans are still  
> very supportive of the party. Party propaganda is overwhelming. Many
> people allow their houses to be painted with candidates and party
> names in giant letters because the party agrees to repaint it months
> after the election--and they can't afford to paint it themselves.
> Every inch of railing, post, sidewalk, bridge, etc. is covered in
> political posters. In some elementary schools kids even get their year
> pictures taken with Disney-world-like characters holding big signs
> with the party's name on it. Others vote for the PRD almost entirely
> because they give out free milk each month.
>
> I was surprised how well off many people are. There is actually a huge
> section of Mexico (and Mexico City) that are very very well off. A
> number of them told me that they completely disagreed that the US the
> land of opportunity--it was clear to them that it was Mexico.
>
> It's surprising how entrepreneurial Mexicans are. I knew one man who
> owned his own home, had a nice car, and sold candy outside a school. A
> huge huge percentage of Mexicans own their own business: mostly taco
> and other food stands, clothing and merchandising shops,
> transportation (vans or taxis), and small grocery stores.
>
> It's was surprising how well the market approach worked in
> transportation. Pretty much anyone can buy a van or bus and run it on
> a route. There's still a permit system, but I believe they're very
> fairly easy to get. I believe it is because of the free entry into the
> market that transportation is so accessible--very cheap, and very
> frequent.
>
> Of course the water in Mexico City is undrinkable, even for natives.
> Rarely do they drink purified water, unless it has strawberries,
> mangos, or some other fruit in it (the availability of which makes me
> wonder why anyone would want to come to the US). If they're going to
> buy a drink, they figure they might as well buy Coca-Cola. It is
> amazing how much Coca-Cola is sold, and is amazing how many poor
> families consume it for almost every meal.
>
> Jim compared the democratic tradition of Mexico and the United States.
> I think is relevant that whereas the United States is made up of
> people who came from some of the most developed countries in the
> world, and quickly became the most prosperous per capita country,
> Mexico was made up of chiefly indigenous people who were essentially
> enslaved for three hundred years.
>
> Mexicans are immensely concerned about the amount of corruption in
> their government. A number of people told me of members of congress
> with whom they attended college and said how they'd dropped out and
> later purchased fake diplomas. Many complained that politicians are
> vastly overpaid, receiving much more than US Senate compensation.
>
> I knew a number of people who came to the US, leaving their families
> in Mexico. None of them were the worst off. The people who had dirt
> floors, little or really bad food (basically just tortillas), did not
> have nearly enough money to be able to pay the coyotes. I believe the
> fee was something like 15,000 pesos, or $1,500 USD. To get an idea,
> you can work 40 hour weeks working construction and make 400
> pesos/week, so it's over two-thirds of a year's salary. In the same
> light, people who were upper-middle class, with one car and an above
> average job (school teacher, bureaucrat, etc), loved to visit the US
> but would never want to move here. Mexicans love Mexico and are very
> proud of it--and with good reason.
>
> The people that I knew who came to the US, as well as those going to
> Canada legally, were lower-middle class. None of them had cars (which
> isn't really important in Mexico City where you're car will get jacked
> and there's good public transportation) but they all had decent homes
> and average jobs. I'm sure they came for a number of reasons that are
> hard to nail down, and I don't claim to know exactly what they were
> thinking, but it was my impression that they came because they didn't
> want to be average. They really liked what they heard about how much
> money they could make in a short amount of time. Their families were
> very sad to see them go, and it was my impression that it was always
> the father's initiative and that the wife's wouldn't have minded
> remaining average, preferring to have their husbands around.
>
> I've definitely experienced some negative sentiment in the States
> towards Mexicans who do not learn English, but it is my impression if
> Mexicans could come to the United States legally many would do so with
> the principle reason being to help their kids learn English.
>
> Mexico is a very opposed to war. I remember hearing a nationally
> broadcast speach by Vicente Fox when the US went into Iraq where he
> stressed that they are a passive nation. Of course they haven't always
> been that way. When Mexico entered WWII the masses were ecstatic
> because they thought they'd finally have the chance to get back at the
> US for invading them. It wasn't until hours later that they realized
> to their surprise that they hadn't joined the Axis. Although Mexico
> isn't involved in Iraq, many Mexicans are there as members of the US
> military and so Mexicans are very concerned with it.
>
> It is my impression that it's hard to make a Mexican feel guilty for
> crossing the border illegally. As they see it, Texas, California, etc
> were all Mexico originally, and the US took that land from them
> through conquest, war, blackmail, and deception. They are not
> attacking us, stealing our land. They're coming peacefully, working
> for us, and buying from us. Relatively, it doesn't seem bad enough to
> fuss about.
>
> Crime in Mexico, and especially Mexico City, is a serious issue, and
> one that factors in prominently in the decision to come to the US. I
> suspect that well over half the adults in Mexico City have been
> assaulted: burglary, car jacking, theft, or robbery. Buses are
> routinely hijacked and banks are robbed almost daily. You hear
> warnings about taxi drivers kidnapping you, and believe me, they're
> true. But at the same time, most taxi drivers are more scared that you
> will assault them.
>
> Well, I've written far too much, and if any of you have read down to
> here I'll be very surprised. I realize that I've made a lot of
> stereotypes and assumptions--I apologize. They are only my impressions
> and what I experienced and I recognize that they are bound to be
> completely false in many cases. I hope that nothing I've said is
> offensive. I don't purport to know the solution to the issue of
> illegal immigration, and I have nothing but the highest esteem for
> Mexicans and Mexico.
>
> --Scott
>
> On 4/2/06, *Owen Densmore* <owen at backspaces.net
> <mailto:owen at backspaces.net>> wrote:
>
>     Dede and I were just wondering -- just how massive IS the immigration
>     from mexico?
>
>     The current guess at the number of undocumented mexicans in the
>     country is between 11 and 13 million (I've heard as high as 15, but
>     the politicos are tossing 11-13 around).
>
>     The current (2005 census) population of mexico is 106 million.
>
>     So if you add back the 11 or 13 then figure out how much that amount
>     is of the total population, you come up with roughly 10% (13M:
>     10.92%, 11M: 9.40%, 15M: 12.39%) of mexico has decided to pick up and
>     leave, and in a very stressful way.
>
>     TEN PERCENT!?  What in the heck is going wrong in mexico to cause
>     that massive an exodus?  I don't think we've seen that sort of
>     migration even during WWII!
>
>     I don't want to be simplistic or alarmist, this is a very subtle
>     issue and needs to be solved gracefully.  But I was really surprised
>     to see that large a number of people leaving their homes.
>
>          -- Owen
>
>     Owen Densmore
>     http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org
>
>
>
>     ============================================================
>     FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>     Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>     lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>============================================================
>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

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[Pamela McCorduck]

What Belinda says is reinforced by an Op-Ed piece in today's NY Times.  
The number of undocumented workers from Mexico seeking work has
remained steady for years--what has changed is that they can't go home
easily.

But I also think what Jim Rutt said is true--it was a bad system for a
long time in Mexico, and its cumulative effects are sad.  En route to a
meeting in Mexico a year or so ago, some of my flight-mates were
well-diggers, contributing their time and expertise to drill wells in
rural parts of Mexico.  At first my heart was warmed by this generous
gesture.  Then I got mad, thinking that this was the 21st century and
for a variety of reasons, good water cannot be taken for granted in a
potentially wealthy country such as Mexico.   The PRI has a lot to
answer for.

Pamela


On Apr 4, 2006, at 9:39 AM, Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:

>  I am working on the Mexican Immigrant issue for the Santa Fe Future
> Program. My team and I interviewed some undocumented workers last
> year. One of the things we learned is that before the tightening of
> the border, the undocumented workers were able to go back and forth
> across the border. When the economy was good, they would come over
> here to find work. When the economy was bad, they would go back. And
> they were able to go home and visit their families for Christmas and
> then come back again. Since the border tightened up after 11 Sep 2001,
> those who make it here do not dare to return, for fear that they will
> be caught and won't be able to get back here again. Some ended up
> hiring coyotes to bring their families here so they are not separated
> from their families with no end in sight. Those already here just stay
> here under the shadows and won't go back to Mexico.
>
>  It appears that an un-intended consequence of tightening the border
> was that we are enlarging the number of undocumented immigrants
> instead of reducing it!
>
>  Santa Fe is a safe haven for unauthorized immigrant workers: the City
> Police will not spend resources to round up unauthorized immigrants;
> they do not ask people their immigration status when they report a
> crime. City offices do not ask client for their immigration status
> when they provide services. New Mexico is one of a few states that
> would give out drivers license with a Tax Identification Number or
> Mexico Consular Identification Card, not necessarily a social security
> number. In 2005, New Mexico passed a law so that students can be
> accepted to the public institutions of higher learning in New Mexico
> regardless of the immigration status. In addition, they are eligible
> for financial aid and in-state tuition if certain conditions are met.
> In spite of Santa Fe's and NM's immigration-tolerant policies, the
> undocumented immigrant workers told us that they live in fear. They do
> not dare to venture far beyond Santa Fe and risk getting caught. They
> do not dare to report abuses by employers and landlords for fear they
> will be reported to the Immigration & Naturalization agents.
>
>  Majority of the undocumented workers are law abiding citizens who pay
> taxes and social security. The IRS grants ITIN (Individual tax
> identification number, I believe) without asking for immigration
> status. (My mother from Hong Kong had several, each time she bought a
> piece of property, she got a new one but that is another problem that
> yours truly had to deal with). Even if only 10 million of the 12
> million undocumented workers pay taxes, and assuming they only pay
> $1000 in federal taxes, that is $10 billion revenue the IRS is
> getting, that is why they don't care. On top of that, the workers also
> pay social security which they are unlikely to be able to draw future
> benefits.
>
>  Why are we spending billions of dollars to build walls and fences and
> prisons to keep out people who are contributing tens of billions of
> dollars to our tax revenue and economy?
>
>  Belinda
>
>

There is a road, no simple highway,
Between the dawn and the dark of night,
And if you go no one may follow,
That path is for your steps alone.

                                        The Grateful Dead, "Riddle"
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[Owen Densmore]

Hi Belinda.  Interesting perspective.

What is your experience with the undocumented learning english?  I  
bet that is one of the primary issues for many americans -- they feel  
awkward or fearful not being able to communicate with folks.

     -- Owen

Owen Densmore
http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org


On Apr 4, 2006, at 7:39 AM, Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:

> I am working on the Mexican Immigrant issue for the Santa Fe Future  
> Program. My team and I interviewed some undocumented workers last  
> year. One of the things we learned is that before the tightening of  
> the border, the undocumented workers were able to go back and forth  
> across the border. When the economy was good, they would come over  
> here to find work. When the economy was bad, they would go back.  
> And they were able to go home and visit their families for  
> Christmas and then come back again. Since the border tightened up  
> after 11 Sep 2001, those who make it here do not dare to return,  
> for fear that they will be caught and won't be able to get back  
> here again. Some ended up hiring coyotes to bring their families  
> here so they are not separated from their families with no end in  
> sight. Those already here just stay here under the shadows and  
> won't go back to Mexico.
>
> It appears that an un-intended consequence of tightening the border  
> was that we are enlarging the number of undocumented immigrants  
> instead of reducing it!
>
> Santa Fe is a safe haven for unauthorized immigrant workers: the  
> City Police will not spend resources to round up unauthorized  
> immigrants; they do not ask people their immigration status when  
> they report a crime. City offices do not ask client for their  
> immigration status when they provide services. New Mexico is one of  
> a few states that would give out drivers license with a Tax  
> Identification Number or Mexico Consular Identification Card, not  
> necessarily a social security number. In 2005, New Mexico passed a  
> law so that students can be accepted to the public institutions of  
> higher learning in New Mexico regardless of the immigration status.  
> In addition, they are eligible for financial aid and in-state  
> tuition if certain conditions are met. In spite of Santa Fe's and  
> NM's immigration-tolerant policies, the undocumented immigrant  
> workers told us that they live in fear. They do not dare to venture  
> far beyond Santa Fe and risk getting caught. They do not dare to  
> report abuses by employers and landlords for fear they will be  
> reported to the Immigration & Naturalization agents.
>
> Majority of the undocumented workers are law abiding citizens who  
> pay taxes and social security. The IRS grants ITIN (Individual tax  
> identification number, I believe) without asking for immigration  
> status. (My mother from Hong Kong had several, each time she bought  
> a piece of property, she got a new one but that is another problem  
> that yours truly had to deal with). Even if only 10 million of the  
> 12 million undocumented workers pay taxes, and assuming they only  
> pay $1000 in federal taxes, that is $10 billion revenue the IRS is  
> getting, that is why they don't care. On top of that, the workers  
> also pay social security which they are unlikely to be able to draw  
> future benefits.
>
> Why are we spending billions of dollars to build walls and fences  
> and prisons to keep out people who are contributing tens of  
> billions of dollars to our tax revenue and economy?
>
> Belinda
>
>
> Scott Jaderholm wrote:

...

[Owen Densmore]

> Well, I've written far too much, and if any of you have read down  
> to here
> I'll be very surprised.

No indeed, and thanks for such a clear set of stories.  I find these  
sorta "on the ground" accounts very useful.

> I don't purport to know the solution to the issue of illegal  
> immigration,

You're not alone!

> and I have nothing but the highest esteem for Mexicans and Mexico.

I overheard a chat between the contractor who did our roof recently  
with one of his employees, obviously undocumented.  I know enough  
spanish to know that he was sending all his money home to his wife  
and kids, and his brother hoped to be with him shortly.  He was  
getting his brother a job with the contractor and was desperate to  
succeed.  They were both skilled roofers and construction workers.

     -- Owen

Owen Densmore
http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org

[Belinda Wong-Swanson]

In Santa Fe, there are non-profits and schools that provide English
lessons for the undocumented immigrants. Many try to take advantage of
it, unless they are working 2 or 3 jobs and don't have time to learn.
Many know more than you think but they are shy to speak English, because
they don't think they speak it well enough.

Even though I am supportive of the undocumented immigrants, I have to
admit I was a bit troubled by their marching in the streets last week
with flags of Mexico. I believe that action might have drawn more
anti-Mexican immigrant sentiments than even before. Scott J mentioned
that the Mexicans are proud of their heritage. Perhaps that is why they
wave the flags. However Americans may view that as an insult. It gives
some the sense they do not want to "assimilate", and question "if they
love Mexico so much, why don't they go back". I am afraid it gave the
anti-immigrant camp a louder voice.

Belinda



Owen Densmore wrote:

>Hi Belinda.  Interesting perspective.
>
>What is your experience with the undocumented learning english?  I  
>bet that is one of the primary issues for many americans -- they feel  
>awkward or fearful not being able to communicate with folks.
>
>     -- Owen
>
>Owen Densmore
>http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org
>
>
>On Apr 4, 2006, at 7:39 AM, Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:
>
>  
>
>>I am working on the Mexican Immigrant issue for the Santa Fe Future  
>>Program. My team and I interviewed some undocumented workers last  
>>year. One of the things we learned is that before the tightening of  
>>the border, the undocumented workers were able to go back and forth  
>>across the border. When the economy was good, they would come over  
>>here to find work. When the economy was bad, they would go back.  
>>And they were able to go home and visit their families for  
>>Christmas and then come back again. Since the border tightened up  
>>after 11 Sep 2001, those who make it here do not dare to return,  
>>for fear that they will be caught and won't be able to get back  
>>here again. Some ended up hiring coyotes to bring their families  
>>here so they are not separated from their families with no end in  
>>sight. Those already here just stay here under the shadows and  
>>won't go back to Mexico.
>>
>>It appears that an un-intended consequence of tightening the border  
>>was that we are enlarging the number of undocumented immigrants  
>>instead of reducing it!
>>
>>Santa Fe is a safe haven for unauthorized immigrant workers: the  
>>City Police will not spend resources to round up unauthorized  
>>immigrants; they do not ask people their immigration status when  
>>they report a crime. City offices do not ask client for their  
>>immigration status when they provide services. New Mexico is one of  
>>a few states that would give out drivers license with a Tax  
>>Identification Number or Mexico Consular Identification Card, not  
>>necessarily a social security number. In 2005, New Mexico passed a  
>>law so that students can be accepted to the public institutions of  
>>higher learning in New Mexico regardless of the immigration status.  
>>In addition, they are eligible for financial aid and in-state  
>>tuition if certain conditions are met. In spite of Santa Fe's and  
>>NM's immigration-tolerant policies, the undocumented immigrant  
>>workers told us that they live in fear. They do not dare to venture  
>>far beyond Santa Fe and risk getting caught. They do not dare to  
>>report abuses by employers and landlords for fear they will be  
>>reported to the Immigration & Naturalization agents.
>>
>>Majority of the undocumented workers are law abiding citizens who  
>>pay taxes and social security. The IRS grants ITIN (Individual tax  
>>identification number, I believe) without asking for immigration  
>>status. (My mother from Hong Kong had several, each time she bought  
>>a piece of property, she got a new one but that is another problem  
>>that yours truly had to deal with). Even if only 10 million of the  
>>12 million undocumented workers pay taxes, and assuming they only  
>>pay $1000 in federal taxes, that is $10 billion revenue the IRS is  
>>getting, that is why they don't care. On top of that, the workers  
>>also pay social security which they are unlikely to be able to draw  
>>future benefits.
>>
>>Why are we spending billions of dollars to build walls and fences  
>>and prisons to keep out people who are contributing tens of  
>>billions of dollars to our tax revenue and economy?
>>
>>Belinda
>>
>>
>>Scott Jaderholm wrote:
>>    
>>
>...
>
>============================================================
>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>  
>

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[Michael Agar]

If you read Spanish you can follow one major newspaper, La Opinion  
from Los Angeles, which Mexican colleagues always said was the second  
largest Mexican City in the world, at http://www.laopinion.com/.  
Feature article today about various positions as Republican senators  
negotiate the future, may God help us all.


On Apr 4, 2006, at 11:59 AM, Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:

> In Santa Fe, there are non-profits and schools that provide English  
> lessons for the undocumented immigrants. Many try to take advantage  
> of it, unless they are working 2 or 3 jobs and don't have time to  
> learn. Many know more than you think but they are shy to speak  
> English, because they don't think they speak it well enough.
>
> Even though I am supportive of the undocumented immigrants, I have  
> to admit I was a bit troubled by their marching in the streets last  
> week with flags of Mexico. I believe that action might have drawn  
> more anti-Mexican immigrant sentiments than even before. Scott J  
> mentioned that the Mexicans are proud of their heritage. Perhaps  
> that is why they wave the flags. However Americans may view that as  
> an insult. It gives some the sense they do not want to  
> "assimilate", and question "if they love Mexico so much, why don't  
> they go back". I am afraid it gave the anti-immigrant camp a louder  
> voice.
>
> Belinda
>
>
>
> Owen Densmore wrote:
>> Hi Belinda.  Interesting perspective.
>>
>> What is your experience with the undocumented learning english?  I
>> bet that is one of the primary issues for many americans -- they feel
>> awkward or fearful not being able to communicate with folks.
>>
>>      -- Owen
>>
>> Owen Densmore
>> http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org
>>
>>
>> On Apr 4, 2006, at 7:39 AM, Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:
>>
>>
>>> I am working on the Mexican Immigrant issue for the Santa Fe Future
>>> Program. My team and I interviewed some undocumented workers last
>>> year. One of the things we learned is that before the tightening of
>>> the border, the undocumented workers were able to go back and forth
>>> across the border. When the economy was good, they would come over
>>> here to find work. When the economy was bad, they would go back.
>>> And they were able to go home and visit their families for
>>> Christmas and then come back again. Since the border tightened up
>>> after 11 Sep 2001, those who make it here do not dare to return,
>>> for fear that they will be caught and won't be able to get back
>>> here again. Some ended up hiring coyotes to bring their families
>>> here so they are not separated from their families with no end in
>>> sight. Those already here just stay here under the shadows and
>>> won't go back to Mexico.
>>>
>>> It appears that an un-intended consequence of tightening the border
>>> was that we are enlarging the number of undocumented immigrants
>>> instead of reducing it!
>>>
>>> Santa Fe is a safe haven for unauthorized immigrant workers: the
>>> City Police will not spend resources to round up unauthorized
>>> immigrants; they do not ask people their immigration status when
>>> they report a crime. City offices do not ask client for their
>>> immigration status when they provide services. New Mexico is one of
>>> a few states that would give out drivers license with a Tax
>>> Identification Number or Mexico Consular Identification Card, not
>>> necessarily a social security number. In 2005, New Mexico passed a
>>> law so that students can be accepted to the public institutions of
>>> higher learning in New Mexico regardless of the immigration status.
>>> In addition, they are eligible for financial aid and in-state
>>> tuition if certain conditions are met. In spite of Santa Fe's and
>>> NM's immigration-tolerant policies, the undocumented immigrant
>>> workers told us that they live in fear. They do not dare to venture
>>> far beyond Santa Fe and risk getting caught. They do not dare to
>>> report abuses by employers and landlords for fear they will be
>>> reported to the Immigration & Naturalization agents.
>>>
>>> Majority of the undocumented workers are law abiding citizens who
>>> pay taxes and social security. The IRS grants ITIN (Individual tax
>>> identification number, I believe) without asking for immigration
>>> status. (My mother from Hong Kong had several, each time she bought
>>> a piece of property, she got a new one but that is another problem
>>> that yours truly had to deal with). Even if only 10 million of the
>>> 12 million undocumented workers pay taxes, and assuming they only
>>> pay $1000 in federal taxes, that is $10 billion revenue the IRS is
>>> getting, that is why they don't care. On top of that, the workers
>>> also pay social security which they are unlikely to be able to draw
>>> future benefits.
>>>
>>> Why are we spending billions of dollars to build walls and fences
>>> and prisons to keep out people who are contributing tens of
>>> billions of dollars to our tax revenue and economy?
>>>
>>> Belinda
>>>
>>>
>>> Scott Jaderholm wrote:
>>>
>> ...
>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>>
>>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

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[Giles Bowkett]

for what it's worth, my take on all this is that the immigration thing
really has nada to do with terrorism, the "connections" are just
irrelevant fearmongering. the criminal status of recreational drugs,
especially relatively harmless ones, creates huge financial incentives
for the development of highly efficient international smuggling
networks; that's probably a more serious threat. unfortunately, the
people who respond to fear-based arguments and the people who want to
legalize recreational drugs are almost entirely exclusive
demographics.

the thing I don't like about illegal immigration is that it's
basically a system whose ultimate output is an entire class of
second-class citizens. after all, they pay taxes and they can't vote.
however I think if the anti-illegal-immigration people were even
halfway sincere they'd be attacking the massive economic incentives to
illegal immigration, since those incentives make becoming an illegal
immigrant an extremely obviously good choice for pretty much everybody
south of Tucson and north of Sao Paulo.

--
Giles Bowkett
www.gilesgoatboy.org

[Gus Koehler]

IMMIGRANTS

The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the
U.S.: Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey. By
Jeffrey S. Passel, Pew Hispanic Center. (The Center, Washington, DC) March
7, 2006. 18 p.

Full Text at: pewhispanic.org/files/reports/61.pdf

["Beefed-up efforts to tighten the borders have failed to slow the flow of
undocumented immigrants and are even discouraging illegal residents from
returning to their home country, a study found. Researchers estimate that
11.5 million to 12 million undocumented immigrants now live in the United
States, up from 11.1 million last year and 8.5 million in 2000." Los Angeles
Daily News (March 8, 2006) N1.]

Latino Scorecard 2006: Road to Action. By United Way of Greater Los Angeles.
(United Way, Los Angeles, California) 2006. 126 p.

Full Text at:
www.unitedwayla.org/pages/rpts_resource/lat_score_06/LSC06_Full_Rpt_012305.p
df

["This report evaluates the status of Latinos in Los Angeles on criteria of
wellbeing: insurance coverage, tobacco use, obesity, physical inactivity,
medical school enrollment, college preparation, academic performance,
preschool, housing affordability, public safety and more. The report also
includes policy recommendations for each of the criteria."]

Gus Koehler, Ph.D.
Principal
Time Structures
1545 University Ave.
Sacramento, CA 95825
916-564-8683, Fax: [phone]
Cell: 916-716-1740
www.timestructures.com