The fallacy of "if current trends continue..."

[Michael Odza]

The issue is not that straight-line or worse, exponential trends don't actually continue forever, but what happens during the transition to a flatter curve. When sea levels rise 20 feet (Greenland plus the smaller side of Antarctica), it's quite true that current trends will change -- but we won't enjoy it.

--
Yours,

Michael

Michael Odza

Skype: michaelodza
Mobile: [phone]


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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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[Robert Howard-2-3]

We won’t enjoy paying for the prevention either. It’s not like fire insurance where we have lots of historical data to make an actuarial comparison between the pain of the event, the pain of paying for the prevention, and how effective the prevention is at preventing the event. Sea levels have risen and dropped over thousands of years. When the water finally touches your beach house patio, you move. When it recedes, someone builds a house closer and blocks your view. There’s a reason I live in Arizona.

 

Rob

 

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From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Michael Odza
Sent: Monday, April 20, 2009 3:53 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] The fallacy of "if current trends continue..."

 

The issue is not that straight-line or worse, exponential trends don't actually continue forever, but what happens during the transition to a flatter curve. When sea levels rise 20 feet (Greenland plus the smaller side of Antarctica), it's quite true that current trends will change -- but we won't enjoy it.

--
Yours,

Michael

Michael Odza

Skype: michaelodza
Mobile: [phone]

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org