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The Presidential Election

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Jochen Fromm-5

The Presidential Election

I have the impression that the list has become a bit quiet in the last
weeks. Are you involved in a campaign for one of the candidates? New
Mexico is a blue state, so most of you will be for President Obama. For
a European, it is hard to understand why one would make a different
choice anyway. What is your opinion on the presidential election?

Steven Pinker recently wrote a nice article why states are so red and
blue. Do you agree?
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/

-J.

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Douglas Roberts-2

Re: The Presidential Election

Since you bring up the election, Jochen, see the attached graph for some interesting correlations. Equally interesting is that the impact of the second and third debates are indiscernible.

--Doug

On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 at 11:20 AM, Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

I have the impression that the list has become a bit quiet in the last weeks. Are you involved in a campaign for one of the candidates? New Mexico is a blue state, so most of you will be for President Obama. For a European, it is hard to understand why one would make a different choice anyway. What is your opinion on the presidential election?

Steven Pinker recently wrote a nice article why states are so red and blue. Do you agree?
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/

-J.

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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ElectionTrends.png (70K) Download Attachment

Jochen Fromm-5

Re: The Presidential Election

XKCD has a nice graphic about the red/blue history of the congress which shows the impacts of various events
http://www.xkcd.com/1127/

I have heard that in some states (Nebraska for instance) some people really fear that their souls go straight to hell if they vote for the democrats, although Obama is the best president the US had for a long time, and his actions are in deep agreement with true Christian values such as charity and care. How backwards is America's heartland?

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 18:44, schrieb Douglas Roberts:

Since you bring up the election, Jochen, see the attached graph for some
interesting correlations.  Equally interesting is that the impact of the
second and third debates are indiscernible.

--Doug

On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 at 11:20 AM, Jochen Fromm [hidden email] wrote:

I have the impression that the list has become a bit quiet in the last
weeks. Are you involved in a campaign for one of the candidates? New Mexico
is a blue state, so most of you will be for President Obama. For a
European, it is hard to understand why one would make a different choice
anyway. What is your opinion on the presidential election?

Steven Pinker recently wrote a nice article why states are so red and
blue. Do you agree?
http://opinionator.blogs.**nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-**
are-states-so-red-and-blue/<http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/>

-J.





==============================**==============================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Eric Charles

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5

Jochen,
I was deep intrigued by the more detailed maps that were produced to go along with the 2008 elections. I suspect Pinker is trying to explain a not real phenomenon (such is often my impression with Pinker, but that's another discussion). Take for example the "purple" graph at the bottom of this article: http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/2008_election_county-by-county/

Our country is not as geographically fractured as the talking heads want us to think.

Eric

P.S. I have a nice Gary Johnson sign outside my house.

On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 01:20 PM, Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

I have the impression that the list has become a bit quiet in the last 
weeks. Are you involved in a campaign for one of the candidates? New 
Mexico is a blue state, so most of you will be for President Obama. For 
a European, it is hard to understand why one would make a different 
choice anyway. What is your opinion on the presidential election?

Steven Pinker recently wrote a nice article why states are so red and 
blue. Do you agree?
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/

-J.





============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

------------

Eric Charles
Assistant Professor of Psychology
Penn State University
Altoona, PA 16601

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5

Even more backwards than you make it sound; that's how backwards this country is.

Sent from Android.

On Nov 3, 2012 12:48 PM, "Jochen Fromm" <[hidden email]> wrote:

XKCD has a nice graphic about the red/blue history of the congress which shows the impacts of various events
http://www.xkcd.com/1127/

I have heard that in some states (Nebraska for instance) some people really fear that their souls go straight to hell if they vote for the democrats, although Obama is the best president the US had for a long time, and his actions are in deep agreement with true Christian values such as charity and care. How backwards is America's heartland?

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 18:44, schrieb Douglas Roberts:
Since you bring up the election, Jochen, see the attached graph for some
interesting correlations.  Equally interesting is that the impact of the
second and third debates are indiscernible.

--Doug

On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 at 11:20 AM, Jochen Fromm [hidden email] wrote:
I have the impression that the list has become a bit quiet in the last
weeks. Are you involved in a campaign for one of the candidates? New Mexico
is a blue state, so most of you will be for President Obama. For a
European, it is hard to understand why one would make a different choice
anyway. What is your opinion on the presidential election?

Steven Pinker recently wrote a nice article why states are so red and
blue. Do you agree?
http://opinionator.blogs.**nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-**
are-states-so-red-and-blue/<http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/>

-J.





==============================**==============================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Jochen Fromm-5

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Eric Charles

Perhaps Gary Johnson would be an interesting alternative. Although there
is nothing better than Obama in my opinion: his humble beginnings are
the proof that America is not ruled by a small number of super rich
families.

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 20:04, schrieb ERIC P. CHARLES:

>
> Jochen,
> I was deep intrigued by the more detailed maps that were produced to
> go along with the 2008 elections. I suspect Pinker is trying to explain a not
> real phenomenon (such is often my impression with Pinker, but that's another
> discussion). Take for example the "purple" graph at the bottom of this article:
> <http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/>
>
> Our country is not as geographically fractured as the talking heads want us to think.
>
> Eric
>
> P.S. I have a nice Gary Johnson sign outside my house.
>
>
>
>
> On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 01:20 PM, Jochen Fromm<[hidden email]> wrote:
> I have the impression that the list has become a bit quiet in the last
>> weeks. Are you involved in a campaign for one of the candidates? New
>> Mexico is a blue state, so most of you will be for President Obama. For
>> a European, it is hard to understand why one would make a different
>> choice anyway. What is your opinion on the presidential election?
>>
>> Steven Pinker recently wrote a nice article why states are so red and
>> blue. Do you agree?
>> http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/
>>
>> -J.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>>
>>
>>
>
> ------------
>
> Eric Charles
> Assistant Professor of Psychology
> Penn State University
> Altoona, PA 16601
>
>
>

Robert Holmes-3

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Eric Charles

Oh, so you're a Romney supporter?

On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 at 1:04 PM, ERIC P. CHARLES <[hidden email]> wrote:

<snip>

P.S. I have a nice Gary Johnson sign outside my house.

Roger Critchlow-2

Re: The Presidential Election

Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:

http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con

-- rec --

Carl Tollander

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5

Well, as someone who grew up in Nebraska and up until recently visited several times a year, I don't think its as weird a place as you portray. The social networks formed in part from the state's rural origins, fallout from and reaction to politics (e.g. populist revolt, you could look it up) of the late 19th century, the formation of towns along the railroad routes, the relatively ethnically and religiously homogenous close-knit communities, and of course a fair amount of gerrymand..., um, creative redistricting. I don't think the republicanism has much to do with religious outlook, most churches seem to lean more progressive. I just think most folks are pretty tolerant and try to get along, and they tend to vote the way their neighbors and relatives do. Because the next time the shit hits the fan (and in Nebraska, it does fairly regularly), they'll need them.

C.

On 11/3/12 12:48 PM, Jochen Fromm wrote:

Since you bring up the election, Jochen, see the attached graph for some
interesting correlations.  Equally interesting is that the impact of the
second and third debates are indiscernible.

--Doug

On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 at 11:20 AM, Jochen Fromm [hidden email] wrote:

I have the impression that the list has become a bit quiet in the last
weeks. Are you involved in a campaign for one of the candidates? New Mexico
is a blue state, so most of you will be for President Obama. For a
European, it is hard to understand why one would make a different choice
anyway. What is your opinion on the presidential election?

Steven Pinker recently wrote a nice article why states are so red and
blue. Do you agree?
http://opinionator.blogs.**nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-**
are-states-so-red-and-blue/<http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/>

-J.





==============================**==============================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Owen Densmore

Re: The Presidential Election

Administrator

In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2

I was surprised how complex the voting here was! We just early-voted after looking at the ballot,

http://www.santafecountynm.gov/userfiles/Pct_48.2.pdf

and checking the usual suspects (League of Women Voters, SF New Mexican). On one close call we even checked out a video between the two candidates.

Took 2 hours! Hard to be a citizen.

Generally we do mail-in voting but were in Italy so had to do walk-in. Mail-in is nice: a good glass or two of wine/beer/booze, music, genial conversation.

-- Owen

Jochen Fromm-5

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Roger Critchlow-2

Interesting read. Sometimes we wonder why other peoples voting decisions are fundamentally different from ours even if all good reasons speak against it. Are they backward or brainwashed? Jonathan Haidt has written a book named "The Righteous Mind" where he argues that people don't really listen to arguments or reasons. Guided by their emotions, they often come to a quick conclusion what is good or bad, and this decision is in accordance with their worldview and their moral system (regardless how skewed it may be).
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonathan-haidt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 21:18, schrieb Roger Critchlow:

Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:

  http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con

-- rec --

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Nick Thompson

Re: The Presidential Election

Jochen,

At this week’s FRIAM meeting, we talked briefly about politics and it was clear that there was some disagreement around the table. We were about to let it go, on that ground, when I decided, spurred by my newly embraced pragmatist ideology, to beg that they all put their minds for 5 minutes to the question, “How do we go about having a conversation with people with whom we disagree? A conversation that would actually get somewhere.”

Our usual way of proceding is what I call “FogHorns on a Shrouded Bay.” Each individual sounds off while the others listen politely or check their email on their cell phones. That goes around the circle a couple of times, and then people just drop the topic and go on to something else.

On the whole, most people I know would rather be force fed castor oil than be convinced to change their minds.

So, back to you, Jochen. Is it truly different where you are? Have you ever sat in on a political discussion in which anybody ever changed his or her mind? How did that happen?

Nick

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Saturday, November 03, 2012 3:20 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:

  http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con

-- rec --

============================================================

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College

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Russ Abbott

Re: The Presidential Election

Haidt has a nice TED talk based on the book.

My sense is that a lot of it is emotional--rather than rational--for a lot of people. Nick, how did your experiment go?

We might do the experiment here. One standard way of proceeding is to paraphrase (in as positive a way as possible) the position of the person who just spoke. That would demonstrate that the new speaker at least understands the position of the previous speaker.

A second approach (which does not preclude the first) is to be as honest as one can about the emotional content of one's own position. E.g., "I favor X because not-X makes me feel icky."

Anyone care to suggest a topic and start? Nick, Jochen, how about one of you.

-- Russ Abbott
_____________________________________________

Professor, Computer Science
California State University, Los Angeles

My paper on how the Fed can fix the economy: ssrn.com/abstract=1977688
Google voice: 747-999-5105

Google+: plus.google.com/114865618166480775623/

vita: sites.google.com/site/russabbott/

CS Wiki and the courses I teach
_____________________________________________

On Sat, Nov 3, 2012 at 7:39 PM, Nicholas Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:

Jochen,

At this week’s FRIAM meeting, we talked briefly about politics and it was clear that there was some disagreement around the table. We were about to let it go, on that ground, when I decided, spurred by my newly embraced pragmatist ideology, to beg that they all put their minds for 5 minutes to the question, “How do we go about having a conversation with people with whom we disagree? A conversation that would actually get somewhere.”

Our usual way of proceding is what I call “FogHorns on a Shrouded Bay.” Each individual sounds off while the others listen politely or check their email on their cell phones. That goes around the circle a couple of times, and then people just drop the topic and go on to something else.

On the whole, most people I know would rather be force fed castor oil than be convinced to change their minds.

So, back to you, Jochen. Is it truly different where you are? Have you ever sat in on a political discussion in which anybody ever changed his or her mind? How did that happen?

Nick

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Saturday, November 03, 2012 3:20 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

Interesting read. Sometimes we wonder why other peoples voting decisions are fundamentally different from ours even if all good reasons speak against it. Are they backward or brainwashed? Jonathan Haidt has written a book named "The Righteous Mind" where he argues that people don't really listen to arguments or reasons. Guided by their emotions, they often come to a quick conclusion what is good or bad, and this decision is in accordance with their worldview and their moral system (regardless how skewed it may be).
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonathan-haidt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 21:18, schrieb Roger Critchlow:
Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:
 
  http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con
 
-- rec --
 
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Jochen Fromm-5

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Nick Thompson

Hi Nick,

yes, it is similar where I live, although we have more parties in Germany (conservative, socialist, liberal and green parties). No, people usually do not change their mind in political discussions. They change their mind during the course of time, though. I changed my mind for example about our own chancellor, Angela Merkel: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel . In the beginning I had doubts. She looks a bit clumsy and grumpy sometimes, and there are certainly politicians who have more charisma. But over the years I learned to appreciate her honesty, her modesty, and her kindness. She said she wants to serve her country, and she really does. She would never lie intentionally. This may seems obvious, but how can you trust someone who lies?

What about you, do you vote for Romney, Obama or someone else, like Gary Johnson? From a psychological aspect, this election is interesting, isn't it?

-J.

Am 04.11.2012 03:39, schrieb Nicholas Thompson:

Jochen, 

At this week's FRIAM meeting, we talked briefly about politics and it was
clear that there was some disagreement around the table.  We were about to
let it go, on that ground, when I decided, spurred by my newly embraced
pragmatist ideology, to beg that they all put their minds for 5 minutes to
the question, "How do we go about having a conversation with people with
whom we disagree?  A conversation that would actually get somewhere."  

Our usual way of proceding is what I call "FogHorns on a Shrouded Bay."
Each individual sounds off while the others listen politely or check their
email on their cell phones.  That goes around the circle a couple of times,
and then people just drop the topic and go on to something else.  

On the whole, most people I know would rather be force fed castor oil than
be convinced to change their minds.

So, back to you, Jochen.  Is it truly different where you are?  Have you
ever sat in on a political discussion in which anybody ever changed his or
her mind?  How did that happen?  

Nick

 

From: Friam [[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Saturday, November 03, 2012 3:20 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

 

Interesting read. Sometimes we wonder why other peoples voting decisions are
fundamentally different from ours even if all good reasons speak against it.
Are they backward or brainwashed? Jonathan Haidt has written a book named
"The Righteous Mind" where he argues that people don't really listen to
arguments or reasons. Guided by their emotions, they often come to a quick
conclusion what is good or bad, and this decision is in accordance with
their worldview and their moral system (regardless how skewed it may be). 
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonatha
n-haidt.html?pagewanted=all
<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonath
an-haidt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0> &_r=0

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 21:18, schrieb Roger Critchlow: 

Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:
 
  http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con
 
-- rec --
 






============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Owen Densmore

Re: The Presidential Election

Administrator

More parties? I'm for it! :)

But seriously, one question on "fair voting": when you vote, can you vote for multiple candidates in priority order so that an "instant runoff" can be held?

-- Owen

On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 12:41 PM, Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi Nick,

yes, it is similar where I live, although we have more parties in Germany (conservative, socialist, liberal and green parties). No, people usually do not change their mind in political discussions. They change their mind during the course of time, though. I changed my mind for example about our own chancellor, Angela Merkel: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel . In the beginning I had doubts. She looks a bit clumsy and grumpy sometimes, and there are certainly politicians who have more charisma. But over the years I learned to appreciate her honesty, her modesty, and her kindness. She said she wants to serve her country, and she really does. She would never lie intentionally. This may seems obvious, but how can you trust someone who lies?

What about you, do you vote for Romney, Obama or someone else, like Gary Johnson? From a psychological aspect, this election is interesting, isn't it?

-J.

Am 04.11.2012 03:39, schrieb Nicholas Thompson:
Jochen, 

At this week's FRIAM meeting, we talked briefly about politics and it was
clear that there was some disagreement around the table.  We were about to
let it go, on that ground, when I decided, spurred by my newly embraced
pragmatist ideology, to beg that they all put their minds for 5 minutes to
the question, "How do we go about having a conversation with people with
whom we disagree?  A conversation that would actually get somewhere."  

Our usual way of proceding is what I call "FogHorns on a Shrouded Bay."
Each individual sounds off while the others listen politely or check their
email on their cell phones.  That goes around the circle a couple of times,
and then people just drop the topic and go on to something else.  

On the whole, most people I know would rather be force fed castor oil than
be convinced to change their minds.

So, back to you, Jochen.  Is it truly different where you are?  Have you
ever sat in on a political discussion in which anybody ever changed his or
her mind?  How did that happen?  

Nick

 

From: Friam [[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Saturday, November 03, 2012 3:20 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

 

Interesting read. Sometimes we wonder why other peoples voting decisions are
fundamentally different from ours even if all good reasons speak against it.
Are they backward or brainwashed? Jonathan Haidt has written a book named
"The Righteous Mind" where he argues that people don't really listen to
arguments or reasons. Guided by their emotions, they often come to a quick
conclusion what is good or bad, and this decision is in accordance with
their worldview and their moral system (regardless how skewed it may be). 
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonatha
n-haidt.html?pagewanted=all
<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonath
an-haidt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0> &_r=0

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 21:18, schrieb Roger Critchlow: 

Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:
 
  http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con
 
-- rec --
 






============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

 
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Nick Thompson

Re: The Presidential Election

Jochen,

I really like the instant run=off. Or any run-off, for that matter. Forces people to snuggle with people they don’t like.

I have voted for Obama. And for Elizabeth Warren. I vote in Massachusetts. Romney seems to me to be a scoundrel. He seems so unstable that I am tempted to see him elected just for the pure thrill of seeing what happens. Were it not for the supreme court, I might be tempted. Gary Johnson, I don’t know, but I am only a libertarian on social issues.

So, we’ll see.

Nick

From: Friam [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore
Sent: Sunday, November 04, 2012 1:54 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

More parties? I'm for it! :)

But seriously, one question on "fair voting": when you vote, can you vote for multiple candidates in priority order so that an "instant runoff" can be held?

-- Owen

On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 12:41 PM, Jochen Fromm <[hidden email]> wrote:

Jochen,

At this week's FRIAM meeting, we talked briefly about politics and it was

clear that there was some disagreement around the table.  We were about to

let it go, on that ground, when I decided, spurred by my newly embraced

pragmatist ideology, to beg that they all put their minds for 5 minutes to

the question, "How do we go about having a conversation with people with

whom we disagree?  A conversation that would actually get somewhere."

Our usual way of proceding is what I call "FogHorns on a Shrouded Bay."

Each individual sounds off while the others listen politely or check their

email on their cell phones.  That goes around the circle a couple of times,

and then people just drop the topic and go on to something else.

On the whole, most people I know would rather be force fed castor oil than

be convinced to change their minds.

So, back to you, Jochen.  Is it truly different where you are?  Have you

ever sat in on a political discussion in which anybody ever changed his or

her mind?  How did that happen?

Nick

From: Friam [[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm

Sent: Saturday, November 03, 2012 3:20 PM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

Interesting read. Sometimes we wonder why other peoples voting decisions are

fundamentally different from ours even if all good reasons speak against it.

Are they backward or brainwashed? Jonathan Haidt has written a book named

"The Righteous Mind" where he argues that people don't really listen to

arguments or reasons. Guided by their emotions, they often come to a quick

conclusion what is good or bad, and this decision is in accordance with

their worldview and their moral system (regardless how skewed it may be).

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonatha

n-haidt.html?pagewanted=all

<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonath

an-haidt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0> &_r=0

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 21:18, schrieb Roger Critchlow:

Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:

  http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con

-- rec --

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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College

lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College

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Steve Smith

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Jochen Fromm-5

Jochen -

Thanks for stirring the pot as an outsider.   I have kept my hands off of it here because I *do* respect those whose politics I don't agree with and feel the need to have a little restraint.   I think you are correct that there is a larger contingent of left-leaners than right-leaners on this list, though I'm sure there are many who share some of the conventional principles of the US "conservative" perspective.   I think the demographic here is intrinsically somewhat leftish (higher educations and somewhat academic...)

I agree that people don't generally change their opinions *during* a dialog/discussion.   It would be someone who had not considered their position very much who could be persuaded so quickly or easily. In fact, I agree that the point of discussion is to reframe the questions, not to convince one or the other of the answers to the questions already decided on going in to the discussion.   I have made massive shifts in my perspective in 40 years as something like an adult... but I did it one small step at a time... and usually *in spite of* the bludgeoning (or foghorns as Nick may have suggested) by the opposition.   And I feel better for it... I *earned* my opinions, I didn't simply adopt them from my parents or my peers... or at best, I composed them from a smorgasboard offered up by myriad positions.

I voted early and I might as well have had the option for pulling a single lever to vote a "straight" (blue) ticket. There was little if anything on the Red ticket to interest me. I came close to voting for Gary Johnson.   Yes, he's a New Mexico homeboy and that influenced me because while I disagree with a lot of his specific stances and some of his broad ones, he represents the "evil I know".   I know what he did (and didn't do) for NM during his tenure as Governer and I know we could do a lot worse. I voted for Obama because I want him and his staff to have 4 more years to see through the things they started.   I voted for Obama because I patently *don't* want the same people who brought us Bush/Cheney/Wolfie/Rummy/et al 12 years ago back in the seat of power. I voted for Obama because I believe he most likely is doing his best to resolve many of the problems I care about, no matter how hard that is in the environment he is working in, and no matter how much perspective he simply cannot have at this point. If his education as a lawyer didn't destroy him, and his time in congress didn't then surely being POTUS for a term or two will leave him a very changed man. I look forward to reading his memoirs in 30 years if I live that long.

I have almost NO sympathy for the current right wing party/government/etc. in the US... but I have a lot of sympathy for many of the little people who support them... the humble working people, often rural, usually struggling at some level with their livelihood.   I defend them in their relative lack of perspective which allows (requires?) them to support what I believe is a deliberately high contrast (black and white) set of issues. Most are probably completely unfamiliar with homosexuality and mostly unfamiliar with recreational drugs beyond alcohol, tobacco and some weed. Many are not religious in any scary way, though most would claim to believe in God and some would even go to church nearly every Sunday or at least Christmas and Easter. Most work in the context of something we call "extractive" industries, though when they or their parents first engaged in the practices of ranching or farming or lumbering or mining, it wasn't so obvious that it was going to become such a problem... and in fact... it was what all progress of that era was built on.   What little service industry existed was riding directly on top of the dairies, the mines, the farms, the ranches, the sawmills just down the road.

That said, I also have very little sympathy for the rich or elite/ivory-tower Left either.   My sympathy are for the little people who support them... the more typically *urban* poor or at least the labor class and many in the service industries. The marginalized, the under-represented ... minorities and women and...   I believe that these people came to their view of a stronger social system and a stronger regulatory environment honestly... by moving into cities, taking work in factories, or in the service industry, they put themselves at the mercy of a system while their country cousins were at the mercy of mother nature and their immediate neighbors...   We are living increasingly urban, and our work is increasingly abstracted from the earth, and I believe that the needs of our society are more centered where the left's sympathies lie.   But that doesn't make for a black and white situation... the left *is* guilty of some wishful thinking and creative accounting and maybe over-reaction leading to reverse-discrimination and over-regulation and ...

Out of all the "polls" out there, I believe in the Iowa Markets "proxy" for a poll the most. While "betting" or "investing" on ideas has it's own problems, I think it is always easier to trust the stated opinions of people who "put their money where their mouth is" rather than just flap their gums (like I am here).   I'd be curious if there were psychological analysis of the Iowa Market's process.   I *don't* believe it represents a simple and pure and clean "free market". I do believe people are mixing their honest beliefs in the outcome of the election (in this case) with their wishful or fearful thinking.

- Steve

Jochen, 

At this week's FRIAM meeting, we talked briefly about politics and it was
clear that there was some disagreement around the table.  We were about to
let it go, on that ground, when I decided, spurred by my newly embraced
pragmatist ideology, to beg that they all put their minds for 5 minutes to
the question, "How do we go about having a conversation with people with
whom we disagree?  A conversation that would actually get somewhere."  

Our usual way of proceding is what I call "FogHorns on a Shrouded Bay."
Each individual sounds off while the others listen politely or check their
email on their cell phones.  That goes around the circle a couple of times,
and then people just drop the topic and go on to something else.  

On the whole, most people I know would rather be force fed castor oil than
be convinced to change their minds.

So, back to you, Jochen.  Is it truly different where you are?  Have you
ever sat in on a political discussion in which anybody ever changed his or
her mind?  How did that happen?  

Nick

 

From: Friam [[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Saturday, November 03, 2012 3:20 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Presidential Election

 

Interesting read. Sometimes we wonder why other peoples voting decisions are
fundamentally different from ours even if all good reasons speak against it.
Are they backward or brainwashed? Jonathan Haidt has written a book named
"The Righteous Mind" where he argues that people don't really listen to
arguments or reasons. Guided by their emotions, they often come to a quick
conclusion what is good or bad, and this decision is in accordance with
their worldview and their moral system (regardless how skewed it may be). 
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonatha
n-haidt.html?pagewanted=all
<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/books/review/the-righteous-mind-by-jonath
an-haidt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0> &_r=0

-J.

Am 03.11.2012 21:18, schrieb Roger Critchlow: 

Here's how backward the conservative heart of america beats:
 
  http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con
 
-- rec --
 






============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

Steve Smith

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Nick Thompson

Nick -

I really like the instant run=off. Or any run-off, for that matter. Forces people to snuggle with people they don’t like.

I do like run-offs, but more so that I can vote *first* for my preferred candidate and *second* for the lesser of evils and get a more diverse pot of ideals, issues, and discussions. Maybe "snuggling with people they don't like" is your shorthand for this diversity?

I have voted for Obama. And for Elizabeth Warren. I vote in Massachusetts. Romney seems to me to be a scoundrel.

I fear he is a scoundrel backed by scoundrels. He is much more astute personally than GW Bush or Ronnie V. Reagan was, maybe more like GHW Bush... and less likely to be a simple(ton) figurehead for the likes of Cheney/Rumsfield/Wolfowitz to run the country (into the ground) for the benefit of their arrogance and their pocketbooks (and those of their friends).

He seems so unstable that I am tempted to see him elected just for the pure thrill of seeing what happens.

I reveled (REVELED) at the coin toss of 2000 when Gore and Bush were left in limbo for months while their minions blew as hard as they could to get the coin to fall on their preferred side. My morbid fascination was in high gear... But within 2 years (9/11 and the start of the Iraq war and many other things) I was shitting my proverbial pants... it wasn't funny any more. Reagan and Bush I had used up a lot of my patience for Republicans, but Clinton balanced that out by using up a lot of my patience for Democrats. But Bush II and his cronies caused me to evacuate my patience for their party in short order.

Were it not for the supreme court, I might be tempted.

I'm not clear on the allusion? Are you saying it would be fun to watch another coin toss get blown over by the Supreme Court?

Gary Johnson, I don’t know, but I am only a libertarian on social issues.

Yes... this is what stopped me from voting for him really... that and knowing that I didn't want to vote *against* Obama. A vote for Gary Johnson would have been a vote for validating third parties more than anything. Perot and Nader have proven that our elections can be influenced significantly by a third party.

So, we’ll see.

with Bated Breath!
- Steve

Roger Critchlow-2

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Steve Smith

I watched an interesting video interview with three British bookies who run online political betting markets the other day. They agreed that there had been concerted attempts to skew the markets to favor Romney, all of which had been eaten alive in short order by bettors happy to take the Obama side at the odds offered. The markets are all holding at the Nate Silver probabilities.

-- rec --

On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 2:18 PM, Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Out of all the "polls" out there, I believe in the Iowa Markets "proxy" for a poll the most. While "betting" or "investing" on ideas has it's own problems, I think it is always easier to trust the stated opinions of people who "put their money where their mouth is" rather than just flap their gums (like I am here). I'd be curious if there were psychological analysis of the Iowa Market's process. I *don't* believe it represents a simple and pure and clean "free market". I do believe people are mixing their honest beliefs in the outcome of the election (in this case) with their wishful or fearful thinking.

Douglas Roberts-2

Re: The Presidential Election

In reply to this post by Steve Smith

A surprising number of my left wing-nut acquaintances on Facebook castigated me for having voted for Gary, claiming that I was "giving away a vote to Romney".

I repeatedly, patiently explained, "No, I'm taking away a vote for Obama, and I'm taking away a vote for Romney, and I've giving it to Gary." A surprisingly hard concept for the left-wing fanatics to grasp.

Also, and primarily, that vote was a statement against the two party system.

--Doug

On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 2:39 PM, Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Nick -

I really like the instant run=off. Or any run-off, for that matter. Forces people to snuggle with people they don’t like.

I do like run-offs, but more so that I can vote *first* for my preferred candidate and *second* for the lesser of evils and get a more diverse pot of ideals, issues, and discussions. Maybe "snuggling with people they don't like" is your shorthand for this diversity?

I have voted for Obama. And for Elizabeth Warren. I vote in Massachusetts. Romney seems to me to be a scoundrel.

I fear he is a scoundrel backed by scoundrels. He is much more astute personally than GW Bush or Ronnie V. Reagan was, maybe more like GHW Bush... and less likely to be a simple(ton) figurehead for the likes of Cheney/Rumsfield/Wolfowitz to run the country (into the ground) for the benefit of their arrogance and their pocketbooks (and those of their friends).

He seems so unstable that I am tempted to see him elected just for the pure thrill of seeing what happens.

I reveled (REVELED) at the coin toss of 2000 when Gore and Bush were left in limbo for months while their minions blew as hard as they could to get the coin to fall on their preferred side. My morbid fascination was in high gear... But within 2 years (9/11 and the start of the Iraq war and many other things) I was shitting my proverbial pants... it wasn't funny any more. Reagan and Bush I had used up a lot of my patience for Republicans, but Clinton balanced that out by using up a lot of my patience for Democrats. But Bush II and his cronies caused me to evacuate my patience for their party in short order.

Were it not for the supreme court, I might be tempted.

I'm not clear on the allusion? Are you saying it would be fun to watch another coin toss get blown over by the Supreme Court?

Gary Johnson, I don’t know, but I am only a libertarian on social issues.

Yes... this is what stopped me from voting for him really... that and knowing that I didn't want to vote *against* Obama. A vote for Gary Johnson would have been a vote for validating third parties more than anything. Perot and Nader have proven that our elections can be influenced significantly by a third party.

So, we’ll see.

with Bated Breath!
- Steve

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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--
Doug Roberts
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