The Origin of Wealth and The God Delusion

[Belinda Wong-Swanson]

Hi Justin,

Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I am based in Santa Fe, along with many of the original Friamers.

I was watching CSPAN several nights ago where a panel of Middle Eastern experts and economists went before US politiicians to try to convince them that a larget part of the US$1B should be spent on economic solutions rather than military solutions in Iraq - young people with nothing to do, no jobs and no future, are going to make trouble everywhere, not just Iraq. One of the politician asked, given that economic solution is the right approach, how would one ensure that the money goes to the right place for the right purpose, in the hands of the right groups, ensuring fairness, and success. - It probably never occur to politicians that, analyzing the problem through simulations for a few months with a fraction of the costs, could provide more insight on the proper strategy than through trial and error over several years with many lives lost.

You are right, bureaucrats and politicians do not have the foresight to fund such projects even though the amount of money invested vs. what it would get back is so much greater than through trial & error. Then again, perhaps they do not wish to eliminate the opportunity of corruption & fraud. Besides, people  rather have other people tell them their strategies are wrong-headed rather than computer, charts & figures, because it is easier to dispute with another person than to dispute facts and figures. - Oops sorry, I get cynical in my old age.

I would really like to meet you in person or over the internet to find out more about your work and see where we could find funding for such work - possibly trusts & foundations. My schedule is a bit tight right now but perhaps we could arrange to meet some time in March? Perhaps other interested Friam'rs woud like to participate as well.

Best regards,
Belinda Wong-Swanson, Principal
Innov8 LLC, 624 Agua Fria Street, Santa Fe, NM 87501
Tel: [phone]
Email: bws at innov8llc.com
Url: www.innov8llc.com

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> From: Justin Lyon <justin at simudyne.com>
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> Belinda,
>
> Thank you for the excellent article.
>
> We could absolutely use simulation science and evolutionary computation
> (SSEC) to, as the article states, "recommended measures to strengthen
> international and national controls to prevent natural resources from
> financing warring factions."
>
> Simulation would also be useful for testing out "suggested steps to
> reduce domestic conflicts over access to natural wealth, including
> 'responsible, just and economically productive resource management' by
> African governments, with 'equitable distribution of wealth to all
> stakeholders, in particular local communities.'
>
> My wife is from Angola. We just watched The Last King of Scotland.
> Africa and the world is in dire need of simulation science to improve
> decision making. I am keen to help -- but policymakers are not keen to
> pay for help.
>
> I am not convinced, as the article states "that the UN, donor agencies
> and other international institutions [should] provide more aid to
> African countries to strengthen capacities for natural-resources
> management." I don't think that more aid money is the solution.
>
> Nor, do I feel that quick fixes ("donor agencies have been tempted to
> step in directly to try to quickly overcome problems of corruption and
> poor administration") will work -- quick fixes inevitably do not address
> root causes, but instead, all too often, ameliorate symptoms in the
> short term only to be followed by even worse situations - as
> demonstrated by the Chad example in the article.
>
> The Diamond Development Initiative and other micro-projects sound like
> interesting examples that may actually work - but my intuition is very
> poor in dealing with complex issues without a simulation to uncover my
> assumptions.
>
> I've done several free projects - but I've discovered that policymakers
> (at least in the USA and at the UN) tend to ignore the advice that comes
> from free work.
>
> For example, we presented work completed as a pilot project by myself
> and a London Business School professor and a proposal to the Director of
> the Secretary-General at the UN in NYC on the use of simulation as a
> tool for policy making in Sierra Leonne. No paid work resulted.
>
> I spoke to numerous people in UNOCHA regarding the use of simulation to
> improve the allocation of scarce resources to impoverished areas. No
> paid work resulted.
>
> I spoke to Senator Edwards in the USA re: the use of simulation to
> address policymaking to alleviate poverty in America - there was no
> interest in driving forward unless I was willing to cover all the costs
> associated with the project.
>
> I did recently connect with the Center for Strategic Health Initiatives
> in Alabama and Simudyne is now doing some interesting work using
> simulation to explore health care policy issues -- but these types of
> visionary public-policy clients seem relatively rare.
>
> I also know (because I helped train him) that there is at least one
> visionary at the World Bank who is using simulation.
>
> :-P
>
> Maybe you know policy-makers who are interested in improving policy
> decisions by using simulation?
>
> Belinda, I am happy to brainstorm one-on-one via Skype or via email. I'm
> over in London now -- where are you based?
>
> - --
> Best regards,
>
> Justin Lyon
>
> M: [phone] (Worldwide)
> M: [phone] (London, UK)
>
> O: [phone] (San Antonio, USA)
> O: [phone]  (London, UK)
>
> E: justin at simudyne.com
> W: http://www.simudyne.com
>
> Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:
> > Hi Justin,
> >
> > Thanks for the book recommendation. I came across this article today
> > relating to conflicts and natural wealth in Africa - seems like a good
> > problem to  simulate and explore possible solutions.
> >
> > http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?type=DocDet&ObjectId=MjI0MzI
> > <http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?type=DocDet&ObjectId=MjI0MzI>.
> > "*Conflict resources: from 'curse' to blessing"*
> >
> > Belinda
> >
> >
> > On Jan 18, 2007, at 9:17 AM, Justin Lyon wrote:
> >
> > Colleagues,
> >
> > I just finished reading the most amazing book:
> >
> > _Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of
> > Economics_ by Eric D. Beinhocker
> >
> > For those of you that heard my speeches in the UK or in Brazil on why
> > traditional economics is a pseudo-science, you will know my feelings
> > about most economists (with the exception of Dr. Dante Suarez and a few
> > others).
> >
> > It's like Eric wrote a manifesto for why we formed Simudyne. Thank you
> > Eric!
> >
> > Get thee to a bookstore and read it if you are interested in simulation
> > science (or complexity science or non-linear science or whatever we're
> > calling it today).
> >
> > ;-P
> >
> > Oh, and I can also recommend _The God Delusion_ by Richard Dawkins.
> >
> > Have others on the list read these two books with their clear call to
> > arms? What do you think of the books and their arguments?
> >
> >>
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[Phil Henshaw-2]

Your thought that better modeling to see whether proposed solutions
would have the intended effect makes a lot of sense in a world with such
complicated feedbacks that that frequently is not the case.   My concern
is that modeling still represents incremental improvement in a design
built on faulty assumptions.  

I'm talking about how one models the autonomy of autonomous systems, the
natural function of growth in growth systems, the physical organization
of emergent structures and their fundamental differences from the rules
for them we devise.   Natural systems do demonstrably accomplish the
purposes you define as our goal in steering the global system, but they
don't use our method, and I think a good thing would be to learn theirs.


Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
680 Ft. Washington Ave
NY NY 10040                      
tel: [phone]                
e-mail: pfh at synapse9.com          
explorations: www.synapse9.com    

> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com
> [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of Belinda Wong-Swanson
> Sent: Friday, January 19, 2007 11:31 AM
> To: friam at redfish.com
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The Origin of Wealth and The God Delusion
>
>
> Hi Justin,
>
> Thank you for your thoughtful comments. I am based in Santa
> Fe, along with many of the original Friamers.
>
> I was watching CSPAN several nights ago where a panel of
> Middle Eastern experts and economists went before US
> politiicians to try to convince them that a larget part of
> the US$1B should be spent on economic solutions rather than
> military solutions in Iraq - young people with nothing to do,
> no jobs and no future, are going to make trouble everywhere,
> not just Iraq. One of the politician asked, given that
> economic solution is the right approach, how would one ensure
> that the money goes to the right place for the right purpose,
> in the hands of the right groups, ensuring fairness, and
> success. - It probably never occur to politicians that,
> analyzing the problem through simulations for a few months
> with a fraction of the costs, could provide more insight on
> the proper strategy than through trial and error over several
> years with many lives lost.

........

[Justin Lyon-2]

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Belinda,

> I would really like to meet you in person or over the internet to find
> out more about your work and see where we could find funding for such
> work - possibly trusts & foundations. My schedule is a bit tight right
> now but perhaps we could arrange to meet some time in March? Perhaps
> other interested Friam'rs woud like to participate as well.

Happy to meet in March. Give me a couple of dates and I'll add it to the
calendar.

It's been my intention to come to Santa Fe to meet others on FRIAM
face-to-face. Does it make sense for me to fly over for the meeting in
March? It would be great to time it so that I could attend a WedTech and
one of the Friday meetings.

I would also like to meet people over at Santa Fe Institute who are in
charge of developing relationships with commercial firms. Are there any
SFI people on this list who can help facilitate such a meeting?

Earlier in March would be better -- then I can share insights from my
meetings with FRIAM at the Gartner Group conference!
http://www.europe.gartner.com/bpm

Btw, if you want to come to the conference let me know as I can probably
swing a good discount for you.

- --
Best regards,
Justin Lyon

[phone]
www.simudyne.com
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