The Origin of Wealth and The God Delusion

[Phil Henshaw-2]

The simple big one is that they don't see that growth produces
exploding complexity, along with exploding every thing else, and call
it a 'stable state'.   There are quite a long list of other things
demonstrating the same extraordinary disconnection from reality.

> How about giving us a hint as to why this seemed so great?!  And  
> possibly why traditional economics sucks so much?  Are any of your  
> talks on-line?
>
> Thanks!
>
>      -- Owen
>
> Owen Densmore   http://backspaces.net
>
>
> On Jan 18, 2007, at 9:17 AM, Justin Lyon wrote:
>
> > -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> > Hash: SHA512
> >
> > Colleagues,
> >
> > I just finished reading the most amazing book:
> >
> > _Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking

of
> > Economics_ by Eric D. Beinhocker
> >
> > For those of you that heard my speeches in the UK or in Brazil on
why
> > traditional economics is a pseudo-science, you will know my
feelings
> > about most economists (with the exception of Dr. Dante Suarez and
a  
> > few
> > others).
> >
> > It's like Eric wrote a manifesto for why we formed Simudyne.
Thank  
> > you Eric!
> >
> > Get thee to a bookstore and read it if you are interested in  
> > simulation
> > science (or complexity science or non-linear science or whatever
we're
> > calling it today).
> >
> > ;-P
> >
> > Oh, and I can also recommend _The God Delusion_ by Richard Dawkins.
> >
> > Have others on the list read these two books with their clear call
to

> > arms? What do you think of the books and their arguments?
> >
> > - --
> > Best regards,
> >
> > Justin Lyon
> >
> > M: [phone] (Worldwide)
> > M: [phone] (London, UK)
> >
> > O: [phone] (San Antonio, USA)
> > O: [phone]  (London, UK)
> >
> > E: justin at simudyne.com
> > W: http://www.simudyne.com
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> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>

--
Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~        
tel: [phone]                
e-mail: sy at synapse9.com          
explorations: www.synapse9.com

[Justin Lyon-2]

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Owen and Phil,

Traditional economics borrowed ideas from equilibrium physics and tried
to force-fit reality to make the math tractable prior to the emergence
of computers sufficient to solve the math. No need to do that now.

Also, Pareto optimitality is a sacred cow that must be slaughtered.

And, the myth of rational humans....hah...that is a good one.

I'll find the PPT for the Brazil conference, type up my notes and post
it to the web for the group's reading pleasure. The conference
organizers recorded the speech and I'll try to hunt down the URL.

I will be giving a workshop on simulation in London for a Gartner Group
conference where I will elaborate in more detail.

http://www.europe.gartner.com/bpm

- --
Best regards,

Justin Lyon

M: [phone] (Worldwide)
M: [phone] (London, UK)

O: [phone] (San Antonio, USA)
O: [phone]  (London, UK)

E: justin at simudyne.com
W: http://www.simudyne.com

Phil Henshaw wrote:

> The simple big one is that they don't see that growth produces
> exploding complexity, along with exploding every thing else, and call
> it a 'stable state'.   There are quite a long list of other things
> demonstrating the same extraordinary disconnection from reality.
>
>> How about giving us a hint as to why this seemed so great?!  And  
>> possibly why traditional economics sucks so much?  Are any of your  
>> talks on-line?
>>
>> Thanks!
>>
>>      -- Owen
>>
>> Owen Densmore   http://backspaces.net
>>
>>
>> On Jan 18, 2007, at 9:17 AM, Justin Lyon wrote:
>>
> Colleagues,
>
> I just finished reading the most amazing book:
>
> _Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking
>> of
> Economics_ by Eric D. Beinhocker
>
> For those of you that heard my speeches in the UK or in Brazil on
>> why
> traditional economics is a pseudo-science, you will know my
>> feelings
> about most economists (with the exception of Dr. Dante Suarez and
>> a  
> few
> others).
>
> It's like Eric wrote a manifesto for why we formed Simudyne.
>> Thank  
> you Eric!
>
> Get thee to a bookstore and read it if you are interested in  
> simulation
> science (or complexity science or non-linear science or whatever
>> we're
> calling it today).
>
> ;-P
>
> Oh, and I can also recommend _The God Delusion_ by Richard Dawkins.
>
> Have others on the list read these two books with their clear call
>> to
> arms? What do you think of the books and their arguments?
>
>>>

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>>
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>>
>>

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[Justin Lyon-2]

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Hash: SHA512

As promised, here is the URL for the Brazil talk I gave.

http://s158641480.onlinehome.us/public/Justin_Lyon__Future_of_Simulation_Brazil_Conference_2006v2.ppt

Download the PPT so you can read the notes on some of the slides.

Any mistakes are mine.

Any surprising insights are the work of other people smarter than me.

:-P

Please point out mistakes to me so I can fix them.

- --
Best regards,

Justin Lyon

M: [phone] (Worldwide)
M: [phone] (London, UK)

O: [phone] (San Antonio, USA)
O: [phone]  (London, UK)

E: justin at simudyne.com
W: http://www.simudyne.com

Justin Lyon wrote:

> Owen and Phil,
>
> Traditional economics borrowed ideas from equilibrium physics and tried
> to force-fit reality to make the math tractable prior to the emergence
> of computers sufficient to solve the math. No need to do that now.
>
> Also, Pareto optimitality is a sacred cow that must be slaughtered.
>
> And, the myth of rational humans....hah...that is a good one.
>
> I'll find the PPT for the Brazil conference, type up my notes and post
> it to the web for the group's reading pleasure. The conference
> organizers recorded the speech and I'll try to hunt down the URL.
>
> I will be giving a workshop on simulation in London for a Gartner Group
> conference where I will elaborate in more detail.
>
> http://www.europe.gartner.com/bpm
>

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
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[Robert J. Cordingley]

Justin,

I reviewed and enjoyed your PPT presentation and I must confess got a
little lost in the economics jargon, but felt impelled to share an
observation and pose some questions...

At one point you complain of not being able to get the message out to
the business world and provided a number of good reasons.  However,
competent businesses are forced to justify their decisions (at least
internally) while balancing risk.  In any application of computer
modeling, regardless of the underlying technology (from well established
engineering principles to system dynamics), for it to be useful it has
to have predictive capabilities or characteristics.  No one, or at least
very few in your field, gets specific about predictability.   (In some
fields there may be a good reason:  If I knew of an accurate way to
predict stock market behavior and told the world it would probably be
self defeating.  The presence of the model defeats the model.)  
Competent business people will seek assurances of predictability.

You point to the need to pursue the "Brand Experience Cycle" when
promoting the discipline of SD/ABM/etc.  Have you applied your own
technological approach to modeling your own success?  Did you estimate
the numbers game sales professional insist on knowing:  from x contacts
y% move to the next stage, z% to the next and so on?  Did you back
calculate the effort needed to meet your two year goal and what did it
look like?

In the spectrum of effective computer models, that can vary from 100%
totally inaccurate to 100% totally accurate, I suspect No Model At All
is slap bang in the middle.  Convincing managers that your model lies
firmly on the (predictably) accurate side seems all that is needed to
close a deal.  I've been there and done that  (but not always.)

As a model (sic) for your discipline (ABM/SD/etc)  have you looked at
the field of Process Control that uses Model Predictive Control to
manage difficult manufacturing control problems
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_predictive_control).  It is now, I
believe, a well established engineering sub-discipline.

Robert C

Justin Lyon wrote:

> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> Hash: SHA512
>
> As promised, here is the URL for the Brazil talk I gave.
>
> http://s158641480.onlinehome.us/public/Justin_Lyon__Future_of_Simulation_Brazil_Conference_2006v2.ppt
>
> Download the PPT so you can read the notes on some of the slides.
>
> Any mistakes are mine.
>
> Any surprising insights are the work of other people smarter than me.
>
> :-P
>
> Please point out mistakes to me so I can fix them.
>
> - --
> Best regards,
>
> Justin Lyon
>
> M: [phone] (Worldwide)
> M: [phone] (London, UK)
>
> O: [phone] (San Antonio, USA)
> O: [phone]  (London, UK)
>
> E: justin at simudyne.com
> W: http://www.simudyne.com
>
> Justin Lyon wrote:
>  
>> Owen and Phil,
>>
>> Traditional economics borrowed ideas from equilibrium physics and tried
>> to force-fit reality to make the math tractable prior to the emergence
>> of computers sufficient to solve the math. No need to do that now.
>>
>> Also, Pareto optimitality is a sacred cow that must be slaughtered.
>>
>> And, the myth of rational humans....hah...that is a good one.
>>
>> I'll find the PPT for the Brazil conference, type up my notes and post
>> it to the web for the group's reading pleasure. The conference
>> organizers recorded the speech and I'll try to hunt down the URL.
>>
>> I will be giving a workshop on simulation in London for a Gartner Group
>> conference where I will elaborate in more detail.
>>
>> http://www.europe.gartner.com/bpm
>>
>>    
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
> Version: GnuPG v1.4.5 (MingW32)
> Comment: Using GnuPG with Mozilla - http://enigmail.mozdev.org
>
> iD8DBQFFt20LhfoqghrmIrARCoO9AKCTBaGMHPqaDgXo6I023bdJQYDPRACgjOj4
> fZfjb9UkmOGhZH6kmijtpZU=
> =vfNd
> -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
>  

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