Technology Push

[Stephen Guerin]

Carver Mead in TechReview

http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/04/09/reiss0904.asp?trk=nl

"The problem with ?demand pull? is that by the time you have a real product,
the market will have moved on. You?re doomed to playing catch-up. I prefer
?technology push??find an interesting new technology and try to come up with
uses for it. ?A solution looking for a problem? is supposed to be a terrible
epithet, but in my experience it works."

-S
____________________________________________________
http://www.redfish.com    [hidden email]
624 Agua Fria Street      office: [phone]
Santa Fe, NM 87501        mobile: [phone]

[Randy Burge]

Thanks for posting this item Stephen...

Proper parsing of the "what, when, how, where, and who" dimensions of the
tech-push or market-pull argument is essential to understand before saying
that "tech-push" is the way to proceed on a commercialization path. These
dimensions comprise the legs of Jack Stafurik's stool analogy.

Perhaps the most important parse is to decide when a technology is ready to
"push," in the often decadal spans of interdisciplinary development paths,
including the paths of related and required other technologies.

I say this without disagreeing with Carver Mead's point, but I am
curious/unclear about these dimensional answers in his "tech-push" model.

How many of the possible arguments are semantic, and if common timing and
definitions of "tech-push" are clearly understood, would we have
disagreements with Mead?

The further away from a market-moment a technology is in the food chain of a
technology's development/readiness, the more money and research is needed to
move it to that market-moment, making "tech-push" geometrically more
market-risky, the earlier its state of development.

Likely, in Mead's model, he has divined technologies that are near or
very-near market-readiness. Technologies maybe not so apparent to many, but
with observable customers willing to spend money on validated or
near-validated uses for the technologies, or "market-pull," and those are
the technologies he pushes, then I concur with his "tech-push" views.
Success will come for "smart" people who can parse these opportunities more
accurately.

However, if he is stating that automotive hydrogen fuel cells, for example,
are necessarily ready to be pushed into markets, there are still many
obstacles and time required to overcome these challenges, despite a
technologist's passion and belief that the market-moment is near.

The entrepreneurial and investment landscapes are littered with "tech-push"
models that missed on one or more of the dimensions noted above, so caution
and care with definitions are most important.

Randy

> From: "Stephen Guerin" <[hidden email]>
> Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> <[hidden email]>
> Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 10:52:47 -0600
> To: "Friam" <[hidden email]>
> Subject: [FRIAM] Technology Push
>
> Carver Mead in TechReview
>
> http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/04/09/reiss0904.asp?trk=nl
>
> "The problem with ?demand pull? is that by the time you have a real product,
> the market will have moved on. You?re doomed to playing catch-up. I prefer
> ?technology push??find an interesting new technology and try to come up with
> uses for it. ?A solution looking for a problem? is supposed to be a terrible
> epithet, but in my experience it works."
>
> -S
> ____________________________________________________
> http://www.redfish.com    [hidden email]
> 624 Agua Fria Street      office: [phone]
> Santa Fe, NM 87501        mobile: [phone]