Taleb via Chris Anderson and Fibonacci and the Dow

Greetings, all --

A couple of links to ponder: first, from "The Long Tail", Chris Anderson's blog:

October 09, 2008

Best advice I've heard all week

What should you do amidst financial turmoil?

"Put wax in your ears. People are more afraid of flying than driving because the press does not report car accidents. I never watch the news. Only listen to news you get in a social setting, the things people talk about. Our brains cannot deal with the overload of information. Having a lot of data is not good for anyone trying to make a decision."

Nassim Taleb, quoted in an interesting article (sub required) about why we're so bad at putting bad news in context. Found in an old (Aug 30) issue of New Scientist that I was reading on the plane back from Brazil today.

Posted at 12:48 PM | Permalink

Hmm...I'd argue that you can never have enough *relevant* data for making decisions, and indeed, determining what's relevant may be akin to John Wanamaker's observation about advertising: "Half my advertising is wasted, I just don't know which half." To the extent that history is written by the victors, I'd be interested in hearing more from people who have followed Taleb's advice and were not successful.

Second, for those who enjoy this kind of thing, another link suggesting that we still have some ways to go.  Personally, I think the VIX is very interesting to watch and consider right now, even though it, too, is somewhat "manufactured".

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/10/fibonacci-unhin.html

Yes, Margo Channing said it best: "fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night".

- Claiborne -

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