Swine flu
Locked
 
|
A brief lay-level article I wrote for the SFR, at the request of one of their reporters:
http://www.sfreeper.com/2009/04/27/swine-flu/ -- Doug Roberts [hidden email] [hidden email] 505-455-7333 - Office 505-670-8195 - Cell ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
|
|
Doug,
Isn't there another reason to do everything in our power to slow the spread of the disease? Within each patient is going on a desperate war between more virulent and less virulent strains of the virus. More virulent strains reproduce faster, shed more stuff in the early stages of the disease and kill the patient quick; less virulent strains reproduce more slowly, shed less stuff in the early stages, but allow the patient to get around more to spread the disease. Slowing the spread of the disease, particularly in the early stages, handicaps the more virulent strains in this competition. One of the reasons the 1918 epidemic was so bad is that all those young recruits were packed together under lousy living conditions so transmission was practically instantaneous and the more virulent strains were rewarded. This is NOT a time to suck it up and go to work when you feel shitty.
My authority here is Paul Ewald, The Evolution of Infectious Diseases, who argues, for instance, the use of mosquito nettings reduces the virulence of malaria infections.
Is this correct?
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([hidden email])
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
|
|
Nick,
No, most likely not. A person is infected with the one strain that is currently circulating throughout the population.. In other words, there is only on strain likely to be circulating at a time. Over time other strains might evolve, but you are right: this is not a time to suck it up and go to work when you feel shitty. Maybe I'll sleep in tomorrow... --Doug On Mon, Apr 27, 2009 at 8:38 PM, Nicholas Thompson <[hidden email]> wrote:
-- Doug Roberts [hidden email] [hidden email] 505-455-7333 - Office 505-670-8195 - Cell ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
|
|
In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2
Hmmm! Why would there only be one strain circulating at a time? Arent mutations occuring all the time? Perhaps I misunderstand the word "strain". Perhaps I mean "variant"?
Are you familliar with Ewald's book? A bit long in the tooth by now, perhaps, but still. Is it possible that I have misrepresented his argument?
Nick
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([hidden email])
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
|
|
In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2
I heard on KSFR that between 35,000 and 50,000 people die each year in the US from human transmitted flu viruses. Although I think that there are clear risks with this new virus, I also think that the news media are feasting on this news. Then again it is an opportunity for public health ABM.
Paul ************** An Excellent Credit Score is 750. See Yours in Just 2 Easy Steps! (http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1221621499x1201450105/aol?redir=http://www.freecreditreport.com/pm/default.aspx?sc=668072&hmpgID=62&bcd=AprilExcScore428NO62) ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
|
|
I think a public health anti ballistic missile would be overkill at this point. Maybe later, just before civilization has completely broken down...
On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 7:57 AM, <[hidden email]> wrote: I heard on KSFR that between 35,000 and 50,000 people die each year in the US from human transmitted flu viruses. Although I think that there are clear risks with this new virus, I also think that the news media are feasting on this news. Then again it is an opportunity for public health ABM. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
«
Return to Friam
|
1 view|%1 views
| Free forum by Nabble | Edit this page |