Sour's Ear to Silk Purse
Locked
 
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Robert,
Thanks for these comments. Are you actually a person who could make me understand Bayes intuitively, a little bit? You could have free coffee from me anytime you wanted to try that. The question was, given a panzy, what is the probability of [panzy-blooming April 1 in Santa Fe]. So the data could be faulted in two different ways. Tree-hugger Jones could know know what a panzy is, and report the blooming of a "forget-me-not" on April first; or TJ could he could have the date wrong. Or he could report his geographic coordinates wrong. The hardest of these is the plant identification part, I would think. This reminds me of a conversation I used to have with my dad when I was trying to learn bird watching from him. The whole thing about bird watching is to see a rare species, or a common species at a rare time. So I would ask, "So DAD what bird is that?" and he would reply, "It's a yellow shafted flicka, son." And I would say, so how do you know it isnt a red-shafted flicka?" And he would reply, "We dont HAVE those here." What would the Reverend have to say about that? Nick > [Original Message] > From: <friam-request at redfish.com> > To: <friam at redfish.com> > Date: 2/17/2008 10:00:41 AM > Subject: Friam Digest, Vol 56, Issue 17 > > Send Friam mailing list submissions to > friam at redfish.com > > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > friam-request at redfish.com > > You can reach the person managing the list at > friam-owner at redfish.com > > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of Friam digest..." > > > Today's Topics: > > 1. Re: Santa Fe Complex BarCamp March 7 and 8 (?) (Steve Smith) > 2. Science Tatoos (Ross Goeres) > 3. Re: Science Tatoos (Pamela McCorduck) > 4. March 5 Lecture: Terry Borst - Serious Games, Simulations and > Autonomous Actors in Evolving Worlds (Stephen Guerin) > 5. Re: The limits of leapfrogging (Saul Caganoff) > 6. Re: FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily Digest > Bulletin (Robert Holmes) > 7. Re: limits of leapfrogging (Prof David West) > 8. Hosting + CMS? (Owen Densmore) > 9. Re: Hosting + CMS? (Robert Holmes) > 10. Re: Hosting + CMS? (Alfredo CV) > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Message: 1 > Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 11:21:56 -0700 > From: Steve Smith <sasmyth at swcp.com> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Santa Fe Complex BarCamp March 7 and 8 (?) > To: stephen.guerin at redfish.com, The Friday Morning Applied Complexity > Coffee Group <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: <47B729C4.1070101 at swcp.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed > > Sounds good... > > I'm surprised, however, that a "distributed BilConference" hasn't > emerged... satellite meetings at places like the Complex. > > I would encourage/support/help make this happen, 'cepting I'll be on the > road March 1,2 > > When DO our distributed, collaborative tools support this? > > - steve > > So, how about a Santa Fe Complex BarCamp on March 7,8 at > > http://www.santafecomplex.org? Out of towners can camp in the space and > > Simon has an alternative offering for a few :-) > > > > -Stephen > > > > --- -. . ..-. .. ... .... - .-- --- ..-. .. ... .... > > Stephen.Guerin at Redfish.com > > www.Redfish.com > > 624 Agua Fria Street, Santa Fe, NM 87501 > > mobile: (505)577-5828 > > office: Santa Fe, NM (505)995-0206 / London, UK +44 (0) 20 7993 4769 > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 2 > Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 11:52:55 -0800 (PST) > From: Ross Goeres <rawscores at yahoo.com> > Subject: [FRIAM] Science Tatoos > To: rawscores <rawscores at yahoo.com> > Message-ID: <363057.6678.qm at web53110.mail.re2.yahoo.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 > > > http://www.flickr.com/photos/carlzimmer/sets/72157601351535771/detail/ > > The ruler on the forearm is about as close as they get to my idea of > logarithmic scales on my forearms for use as slide rules... > > > > > > ____________________________________________________________________________ ________ > Looking for last minute shopping deals? > Find them fast with Yahoo! Search. http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 3 > Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 15:36:15 -0500 > From: Pamela McCorduck <pamela at well.com> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Science Tatoos > To: rawscores at yahoo.com, The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee > Group <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: <f7b035b9d4df697c061ce7dfd9b2add6 at well.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; delsp=yes; format=flowed > > Fabulous! I'll pass them on. > > P. > > > On Feb 16, 2008, at 2:52 PM, Ross Goeres wrote: > > > > > http://www.flickr.com/photos/carlzimmer/sets/72157601351535771/detail/ > > > > The ruler on the forearm is about as close as they get to my idea of > > tattooing > > logarithmic scales on my forearms for use as slide rules... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________________________________ > > _____________ > > Looking for last minute shopping deals? > > Find them fast with Yahoo! Search. > > http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > > > > "Those who act will suffer. > suffer into truth"-- > What Aeschylus omitted: > those who cannot act will suffer too. > > Jane Hirshfield, "Those Who Cannot Act" in "After" > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 4 > Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 13:54:43 -0700 > From: "Stephen Guerin" <stephen.guerin at redfish.com> > Subject: [FRIAM] March 5 Lecture: Terry Borst - Serious Games, > Simulations and Autonomous Actors in Evolving Worlds > To: <friam at redfish.com> > Cc: tborst at compuserve.com > Message-ID: <00f501c870de$2a035050$6701a8c0 at hongyu> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > ** Note this will be the first lecture at http://www.santafecomplex.org ** > > SPEAKER: Terry Borst > Content designer and scriptwriter > > TITLE: Serious Games, Simulations and Autonomous Actors in Evolving Worlds > > LOCATION: 632 Agua Fria http://www.santafecomplex.org > > TIME: Wednesday, March 5, 12:30p > > Lunch will be available for purchase for $5 > > ABSTRACT: An informal presentation of some recent leadership training > real-time 3D environments -- with an eye towards advancing from the highly > contained simulations of version 1.0 products to more expansive future versions > which could benefit from the application of intelligent agents, cognitive > architectures, and other adaptable and autonomous systems. Brief demos and > playthroughs will lead to some of the processes pursued in developing and > building these games currently, and the inevitable limitations of these > processes. How much can we integrate narrative, pedagogy, interactivity, and > world autonomy, and what kind of design and process tools might further this > integration? > > About Terry Borst: I'm a film and television writer who has also been scripting > and collaborating on the design of entertainment videogames and (more recently) > training and educational games for more than a decade. Just over a year ago, I > co-authored Story and Simulations for Serious Games (published by Focal Press), > a "handbook" for the design, representation, and production of digitally > delivered training environments. We are at the precipice of radically > redefining the nature of story, narrative, and learned experience, and I'm > interested in seeing how we can use new tools to further this leap into the > unknown. Find out more at http://www.terryborst.com. > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 5 > Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2008 10:18:05 +1100 > From: "Saul Caganoff" <scaganoff at gmail.com> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The limits of leapfrogging > To: "The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" > <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: > <5b5f405d0802161518k4110d39al67682ac68dbd8742 at mail.gmail.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=WINDOWS-1252 > > A corrollary to this is that ignoring technologies may choke off > access to new industries. Australia has (by choice?) no manufacturing > facilities for computer chips. But a lot of the new advances in > biotech builds on silicon chip technologies. A lesson for govts who > think they can pick "winners" vs "losers" > > On 2/15/08, Owen Densmore <owen at backspaces.net> wrote: > > The economist has a thought provoking article on the limits of > > leapfrogging: > > http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10650775 > > .. and attached for convenience. > > > > The idea is that, although in a few cases new technologies can be > > deployed in developing countries .. and sometimes better than the > > developed countries, new technologies often depend on older ones, thus > > cannot easily be deployed by leapfrogging the older ones. > > > > -- Owen > > > > MOBILE phones are frequently held up as a good example of technology's > > ability to transform the fortunes of people in the developing world. > > In places with bad roads, few trains and parlous land lines, mobile > > phones substitute for travel, allow price data to be distributed more > > quickly and easily, enable traders to reach wider markets and > > generally make it easier to do business. The mobile phone is also a > > wonderful example of a "leapfrog" technology: it has enabled > > developing countries to skip the fixed-line technology of the 20th > > century and move straight to the mobile technology of the 21st. Surely > > other technologies can do the same? > > > > Alas, the mobile phone turns out to be rather unusual. Its very nature > > makes it an especially good leapfrogger: it works using radio, so > > there is no need to rely on physical infrastructure such as roads and > > phone wires; base-stations can be powered using their own generators > > in places where there is no electrical grid; and you do not have to be > > literate to use a phone, which is handy if your country's education > > system is in a mess. There are some other examples of leapfrog > > technologies that can promote development?moving straight to local, > > small-scale electricity generation based on solar panels or biomass, > > for example, rather than building a centralised power-transmission grid > > ?but there may not be very many. > > > > Indeed, as a recent report from the World Bank points out (see > > article), it is the presence of a solid foundation of intermediate > > technology that determines whether the latest technologies become > > widely diffused. It is all too easy to forget that in the developed > > world, the 21st century's gizmos are underpinned by infrastructure > > that often dates back to the 20th or even the 19th. Computers and > > broadband links are not much use without a reliable electrical supply, > > for example, and the latest medical gear is not terribly helpful in a > > country that lacks basic sanitation and health-care facilities. A > > project to provide every hospital in Ethiopia with an internet > > connection was abandoned a couple of years ago when it became apparent > > that the lack of internet access was the least of the hospitals' > > worries. And despite the clever technical design of the $100 laptop, > > which is intended to bring computing within the reach of the world's > > poorest children, sceptics wonder whether the money might be better > > spent on schoolrooms, teacher training and books. > > > > The World Bank's researchers looked at 28 examples of new technologies > > that achieved a market penetration of at least 5% in the developed > > world, and found that 23 of them went on to manage a penetration of > > over 50%. Once early adopters latch onto something new and useful, in > > other words, the rest of the population can quickly follow. The > > researchers then considered 67 new technologies that had achieved a 5% > > penetration in the developing world, and found that only six of them > > went on to reach 50%. That suggests that although new technologies are > > often adopted by a small minority of people in poor countries, they > > then fail to achieve widespread diffusion, so their benefits do not > > become more generally available. > > > > Lavatories before laptops > > The World Bank concludes that a country's capacity to absorb and > > benefit from new technology depends on the availability of more basic > > forms of infrastructure. This has clear implications for development > > policy. Building a fibre-optic backbone or putting plasma screens into > > schools may be much more glamorous than building electrical grids, > > sewerage systems, water pipelines, roads, railways and schools. It > > would be great if you could always jump straight to the high-tech > > solution, as you can with mobile phones. But with technology, as with > > education, health care and economic development, such short-cuts are > > rare. Most of the time, to go high-tech, you need to have gone medium- > > tech first. > > > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > -- > Saul Caganoff > Enterprise IT Architect > LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/scaganoff > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 6 > Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 19:03:59 -0500 > From: "Robert Holmes" <robert at holmesacosta.com> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] FW: National Science Foundation Update Daily > Digest Bulletin > To: nickthompson at earthlink.net, "The Friday Morning Applied > Complexity Coffee Group" <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: > <857770150802161603q9f632fm363193b5c9c24acc at mail.gmail.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Nick, > > Doesn't sound too tricky - as you describe it, it seems a pretty good > candidate for some form of Bayesian analysis: p(A|B) is proportional to > p(B|A)p(A), where B="is described as a pansy" and A="is actually a pansy" > > You can probably get good empirical values for your priors ("what IS the > probability of finding a pansy round here?"), which is a pleasant change > Bayesians as they usually guess these values and then spend time trying to > convince you that the final result isn't sensitive to the priors anyway. > Also I'd expect that you can probably get reasonable values for > those conditional probabilities, in consultation with your local flower > expert. > > Robert > > On 2/15/08, Nicholas Thompson <nickthompson at earthlink.net> wrote: > > > > All -- > > > > Has anybody thought about how to make use of truly lousy data? There > > increasingly sources of public data on subject matters such as weather and > > (see below) flowers and birds where the quality of the data is truly awful > > by ordinary standards and yet there is so much of it that it seems a crime > > not to try to make use of it. So Sally writes in to say that her morning > > glories are in bloom in April when what she means is her pansies. Her > > neighbor gets the pansies right but screws up on the tithonia. Is there > > any way to add this all up and get something? > > > > thoughts? > > > > nick > > > > > > > > > > > > Nicholas S. Thompson > > Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM (nick at redfish.com) > > Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University > > (nthompson at clarku.edu) > > > > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: /attachment-0001.html > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 7 > Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 20:40:29 -0500 > From: "Prof David West" <profwest at fastmail.fm> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] limits of leapfrogging > To: "The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" > <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: <1203212429.23279.1237269607 at webmail.messagingengine.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="ISO-8859-1" > > > Late eighties - lowly grad student taking a development course as part > of his anthropology course. Term paper concerned the feasibility of > starting a 12volt appliance manufacturing business in Africa with the > initial market being the RV crowd in the U.S. Within a relatively short > time the domestic market would pick up as locals earned manufacturing > wages. Local power to locally purchased appliances would come from > using the relatively crude solar cell technology of that date. The > total cost would have been about .4% of what was then being invested in > establishing hydro power generation and high voltage distribution > network. Fast forward thirty years and the the Green trend that was > nascent then is in full flower and more and more effort is being put > into 12v as people seek to leave the grid. And a solar cell panel on > each rooftop is far less amenable to a terrorist threat than the single > tower that can bring down the entire distribution network. > > I suspect that there are a lot more opportunities for leapfrogging than > the establishment would have us believe. > > > > On Thu, 14 Feb 2008 17:55:16 -0700, "Owen Densmore" > <owen at backspaces.net> said: > > The economist has a thought provoking article on the limits of > > leapfrogging: > > http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10650775 > > .. and attached for convenience. > > > > The idea is that, although in a few cases new technologies can be > > deployed in developing countries .. and sometimes better than the > > developed countries, new technologies often depend on older ones, thus > > cannot easily be deployed by leapfrogging the older ones. > > > > -- Owen > > > > MOBILE phones are frequently held up as a good example of technology's > > ability to transform the fortunes of people in the developing world. > > In places with bad roads, few trains and parlous land lines, mobile > > phones substitute for travel, allow price data to be distributed more > > quickly and easily, enable traders to reach wider markets and > > generally make it easier to do business. The mobile phone is also a > > wonderful example of a ?leapfrog? technology: it has enabled > > developing countries to skip the fixed-line technology of the 20th > > century and move straight to the mobile technology of the 21st. Surely > > other technologies can do the same? > > > > Alas, the mobile phone turns out to be rather unusual. Its very nature > > makes it an especially good leapfrogger: it works using radio, so > > there is no need to rely on physical infrastructure such as roads and > > phone wires; base-stations can be powered using their own generators > > in places where there is no electrical grid; and you do not have to be > > literate to use a phone, which is handy if your country's education > > system is in a mess. There are some other examples of leapfrog > > technologies that can promote development?moving straight to local, > > small-scale electricity generation based on solar panels or biomass, > > for example, rather than building a centralised power-transmission grid > > ?but there may not be very many. > > > > Indeed, as a recent report from the World Bank points out (see > > article), it is the presence of a solid foundation of intermediate > > technology that determines whether the latest technologies become > > widely diffused. It is all too easy to forget that in the developed > > world, the 21st century's gizmos are underpinned by infrastructure > > that often dates back to the 20th or even the 19th. Computers and > > broadband links are not much use without a reliable electrical supply, > > for example, and the latest medical gear is not terribly helpful in a > > country that lacks basic sanitation and health-care facilities. A > > project to provide every hospital in Ethiopia with an internet > > connection was abandoned a couple of years ago when it became apparent > > that the lack of internet access was the least of the hospitals' > > worries. And despite the clever technical design of the $100 laptop, > > which is intended to bring computing within the reach of the world's > > poorest children, sceptics wonder whether the money might be better > > spent on schoolrooms, teacher training and books. > > > > The World Bank's researchers looked at 28 examples of new technologies > > that achieved a market penetration of at least 5% in the developed > > world, and found that 23 of them went on to manage a penetration of > > over 50%. Once early adopters latch onto something new and useful, in > > other words, the rest of the population can quickly follow. The > > researchers then considered 67 new technologies that had achieved a 5% > > penetration in the developing world, and found that only six of them > > went on to reach 50%. That suggests that although new technologies are > > often adopted by a small minority of people in poor countries, they > > then fail to achieve widespread diffusion, so their benefits do not > > become more generally available. > > > > Lavatories before laptops > > The World Bank concludes that a country's capacity to absorb and > > benefit from new technology depends on the availability of more basic > > forms of infrastructure. This has clear implications for development > > policy. Building a fibre-optic backbone or putting plasma screens into > > schools may be much more glamorous than building electrical grids, > > sewerage systems, water pipelines, roads, railways and schools. It > > would be great if you could always jump straight to the high-tech > > solution, as you can with mobile phones. But with technology, as with > > education, health care and economic development, such short-cuts are > > rare. Most of the time, to go high-tech, you need to have gone medium- > > tech first. > > > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 8 > Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 23:19:56 -0700 > From: Owen Densmore <owen at backspaces.net> > Subject: [FRIAM] Hosting + CMS? > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: <9BDB7A77-CD90-454A-9ED2-BB43AC2ECB1C at backspaces.net> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed; delsp=yes > > We're looking into which Hosting service to use, and what web Content > Management System to use for our new Santa Fe Complex. Several of us > have used HostGo and a variety of blog/cms software that they support. > > But we may be outgrowing HostGo for The Complex. > > Does anyone have suggestions and/or experiences? > > One system I'm particularly interested in is Joyent (who bought > TextDrive), which has built a really interesting system on Ruby on > Rails + Open Solaris. They clearly have their heart in the right > place (support open source, make their own code open source, and even > give away free accounts), but I'm not yet sure if they'd fall down in > some areas we'll need. > > -- Owen > > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 9 > Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2008 08:14:50 -0500 > From: "Robert Holmes" <robert at holmesacosta.com> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hosting + CMS? > To: "The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group" > <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: > <857770150802170514u636824cbkb8c86f36de7ce907 at mail.gmail.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Please not HostGo! Otherwise I'll never get any email from you guys > bounce, bounce....) > > One thing we discussed over lunch a week or so ago - how about hosting it > yourself? You'll probably be able to identify and repair problems faster > than the typical ISP's customer (non-)service. Plus you get to use whatever > open-source CMS you like (Joomla, Drupal etc) without any constraint imposed > by the ISP. > > Robert > > > On 2/17/08, Owen Densmore <owen at backspaces.net> wrote: > > > > We're looking into which Hosting service to use, and what web Content > > Management System to use for our new Santa Fe Complex. Several of us > > have used HostGo and a variety of blog/cms software that they support. > > > > But we may be outgrowing HostGo for The Complex. > > > > Does anyone have suggestions and/or experiences? > > > > One system I'm particularly interested in is Joyent (who bought > > TextDrive), which has built a really interesting system on Ruby on > > Rails + Open Solaris. They clearly have their heart in the right > > place (support open source, make their own code open source, and even > > give away free accounts), but I'm not yet sure if they'd fall down in > > some areas we'll need. > > > > -- Owen > > > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: /attachment-0001.html > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 10 > Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2008 09:12:29 -0500 > From: Alfredo CV <acovaleda at loslibrosusados.net> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Hosting + CMS? > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > <friam at redfish.com> > Message-ID: <47B840CD.1060101 at loslibrosusados.net> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" > > Maybe it's what you are looking for. Is one of the choices I'm > considering to change my current hosting service. Furthermore > it's not expensive. > > http://www.a2hosting.com/ > > Server run on Linux not in Solaris but offers: > > Ruby & Rails > Perl / CGI-BIN > PHP 5 > Zend Optimizer > Python (CGI) > SQLite 3.x > SQL Databases: MySQL and/or PostgreSQL > SSI (Server Side Include) > SSL (128-bit encryption) > Shell Access (SSH) > > > They also have Mambo, Drupal, Joomla and other PHP built on CMS. > > > > > Robert Holmes wrote: > > >Please not HostGo! Otherwise I'll never get any email from you guys > >bounce, bounce....) > > > >One thing we discussed over lunch a week or so ago - how about hosting it > >yourself? You'll probably be able to identify and repair problems faster > >than the typical ISP's customer (non-)service. Plus you get to use whatever > >open-source CMS you like (Joomla, Drupal etc) without any constraint imposed > >by the ISP. > > > >Robert > > > > > >On 2/17/08, Owen Densmore <owen at backspaces.net> wrote: > > > > > >>We're looking into which Hosting service to use, and what web Content > >>Management System to use for our new Santa Fe Complex. Several of us > >>have used HostGo and a variety of blog/cms software that they support. > >> > >>But we may be outgrowing HostGo for The Complex. > >> > >>Does anyone have suggestions and/or experiences? > >> > >>One system I'm particularly interested in is Joyent (who bought > >>TextDrive), which has built a really interesting system on Ruby on > >>Rails + Open Solaris. They clearly have their heart in the right > >>place (support open source, make their own code open source, and even > >>give away free accounts), but I'm not yet sure if they'd fall down in > >>some areas we'll need. > >> > >> -- Owen > >> > >> > >> > >>============================================================ > >>FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >>Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > >>lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > >> > >> > >> > > > > > > > >------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > > >============================================================ > >FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > >lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > > -- > > -------------------------------- > Alfredo Covaleda V?lez > Ingeniero Agr?nomo > Programador > ******************************** > Compre y venda sus libros en: > http://www.loslibrosusados.com > ******************************** > Too many waiting for that lucky break (PM) > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: /attachment-0001.html > > ------------------------------ > > _______________________________________________ > Friam mailing list > Friam at redfish.com > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > > End of Friam Digest, Vol 56, Issue 17 > ************************************* |
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On 2/17/08, Nicholas Thompson <nickthompson at earthlink.net> wrote:
> Robert, > > Thanks for these comments. Are you actually a person who could make me > understand Bayes intuitively, a little bit? > You could have free coffee from me anytime you wanted to try that. Here's a basic rundown of Bayes. I am not an expert; this is more or less as much as I know. I can't collect the free coffee as I'm in Los Angeles right now, but maybe it'll help. Bayes theorem goes like this: p(a ^ b) = (p(b ^ a) * p(a)) / p(b) where ^ means "given." So the probability of A, given B, is equal to (the probability of A, given B, times the base probability of A itself) divided by the base probability of B itself. > The question was, given a panzy, what is the probability of [panzy-blooming > April 1 in Santa Fe]. So the data could be faulted in two different ways. > Tree-hugger Jones could know know what a panzy is, and report the blooming > of a "forget-me-not" on April first; or TJ could he could have the date > wrong. Or he could report his geographic coordinates wrong. The hardest > of these is the plant identification part, I would think. So I don't know if you could actually model this in a Bayesian way. You are basically modelling cause and effect with Bayes. This problem with the flower blooming at a particular time in a particular place is just a combination of probabilities. A nice canoncial Bayes example is, given that the grass is wet, what is the probability that it rained last night? a = rained last night b = grass wet p(a ^ b) = probability that it rained last night, given that the grass is wet p(b ^ a) = probability that the grass is wet, given that it rained last night (100%) p(a) = base probability of it raining last night p(b) = base probability of grass being wet p(b) will reflect both times when the grass was wet because it rained and times when the grass was wet because the automatic sprinklers turned on, or the kids were throwing water balloons at each other. p(a) can be high or low depending on the time of year. But AFAIK you do need to initially collect some data on the general probability of the grass being wet, given that it rained last night, to solve the equation at all. That's why this is a canonical example; it's easy to see that p(b ^ a) will be about 100%, because lawns generally don't dry out until the sun comes up. So to predict the probability of a particular flower blooming in a particular place at a particular time, that's calculating the probability of a coincidence, whereas Bayes is really all about cause and effect and pattern recognition, or inference - when X happens, Y often happens too, so since I know Y obviously happened here, can I say that X must have happened also? It's basically an equation that can do simple kinds of detective work. For example, I'm working on something I can't necessarily describe in too much detail, but it's a Web application which creates probability matrices, such that it will know that if User X is in Category Y, they probably want to look at item Z. That's cool because we can say, "hello web site user, you probably want to see item Z!" and make the text for item Z bold or bright red so it's easy for them to find it. But over time, we can not only get these probability matrices fairly accurate - because you have to acquire a bunch of data before they become genuinely useful - but we can also collect the number of times *anybody* clicked item Z or entered category Y. Since we can collect those numbers, we can calculate base probabilities for category Y and item Z. And since we know the probability that user X enters category Y looking for item Z, when somebody enters category Y looking for item Z, we'll be able to calculate the probability that they're user X. And that becomes useful if we know other things about user X - for instance, user X always chooses FedEx for their shipping method, so if we calculate a high probability that this user entering Y looking for Z is the user X we already know about, then we go ahead and make FedEx the first option in the list of shipping options, and put the link in bold text and make it bright red just to make life easier for user X. Basically, you know if you get coffee at the same place every time, you don't have to tell them what you want? They see you come in the door and they start making the one-shot 12oz. soy latte with cinammon and they ring it up for you without you having to describe it in detail every time? Bayes' theorem allows websites to do the same thing, in some cases. -- Giles Bowkett Podcast: http://hollywoodgrit.blogspot.com Blog: http://gilesbowkett.blogspot.com Portfolio: http://www.gilesgoatboy.org Tumblelog: http://giles.tumblr.com |
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I found a really interesting "book" that not only helps understand Bayes, but understand Inverse Theory as well. mesoscopic.mines.edu/~jscales/gp605/snapshot.pdf Ken > -----Original Message----- > From: friam-bounces at redfish.com > [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of Giles Bowkett > Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2008 1:17 PM > To: nickthompson at earthlink.net; The Friday Morning Applied > Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Sour's Ear to Silk Purse > > On 2/17/08, Nicholas Thompson <nickthompson at earthlink.net> wrote: > > Robert, > > > > Thanks for these comments. Are you actually a person who > could make > > me understand Bayes intuitively, a little bit? > > You could have free coffee from me anytime you wanted to try that. > > Here's a basic rundown of Bayes. I am not an expert; this is > more or less as much as I know. I can't collect the free > coffee as I'm in Los Angeles right now, but maybe it'll help. > > Bayes theorem goes like this: > > p(a ^ b) = (p(b ^ a) * p(a)) / p(b) > > where ^ means "given." > > So the probability of A, given B, is equal to (the > probability of A, given B, times the base probability of A > itself) divided by the base probability of B itself. > > > The question was, given a panzy, what is the probability of > > [panzy-blooming April 1 in Santa Fe]. So the data could be > faulted in two different ways. > > Tree-hugger Jones could know know what a panzy is, and > report the blooming > > of a "forget-me-not" on April first; or TJ could he could > have the date > > wrong. Or he could report his geographic coordinates > wrong. The hardest > > of these is the plant identification part, I would think. > > So I don't know if you could actually model this in a Bayesian way. > You are basically modelling cause and effect with Bayes. This > problem with the flower blooming at a particular time in a > particular place is just a combination of probabilities. A > nice canoncial Bayes example is, given that the grass is wet, > what is the probability that it rained last night? > > a = rained last night > b = grass wet > > p(a ^ b) = probability that it rained last night, given that > the grass is wet p(b ^ a) = probability that the grass is > wet, given that it rained last night (100%) > p(a) = base probability of it raining last night > p(b) = base probability of grass being wet > > p(b) will reflect both times when the grass was wet because > it rained and times when the grass was wet because the > automatic sprinklers turned on, or the kids were throwing > water balloons at each other. > p(a) can be high or low depending on the time of year. But > AFAIK you do need to initially collect some data on the > general probability of the grass being wet, given that it > rained last night, to solve the equation at all. That's why > this is a canonical example; it's easy to see that p(b ^ a) > will be about 100%, because lawns generally don't dry out > until the sun comes up. > > So to predict the probability of a particular flower blooming > in a particular place at a particular time, that's > calculating the probability of a coincidence, whereas Bayes > is really all about cause and effect and pattern recognition, > or inference - when X happens, Y often happens too, so since > I know Y obviously happened here, can I say that X must have > happened also? It's basically an equation that can do simple > kinds of detective work. > > For example, I'm working on something I can't necessarily > describe in too much detail, but it's a Web application which > creates probability matrices, such that it will know that if > User X is in Category Y, they probably want to look at item > Z. That's cool because we can say, "hello web site user, you > probably want to see item Z!" and make the text for item Z > bold or bright red so it's easy for them to find it. > But over time, we can not only get these probability matrices > fairly accurate - because you have to acquire a bunch of data > before they become genuinely useful - but we can also collect > the number of times > *anybody* clicked item Z or entered category Y. > > Since we can collect those numbers, we can calculate base > probabilities for category Y and item Z. And since we know > the probability that user X enters category Y looking for > item Z, when somebody enters category Y looking for item Z, > we'll be able to calculate the probability that they're user > X. And that becomes useful if we know other things about user > X - for instance, user X always chooses FedEx for their > shipping method, so if we calculate a high probability that > this user entering Y looking for Z is the user X we already > know about, then we go ahead and make FedEx the first option > in the list of shipping options, and put the link in bold > text and make it bright red just to make life easier for user X. > > Basically, you know if you get coffee at the same place every > time, you don't have to tell them what you want? They see you > come in the door and they start making the one-shot 12oz. soy > latte with cinammon and they ring it up for you without you > having to describe it in detail every time? Bayes' theorem > allows websites to do the same thing, in some cases. > > -- > Giles Bowkett > > Podcast: http://hollywoodgrit.blogspot.com > Blog: http://gilesbowkett.blogspot.com > Portfolio: http://www.gilesgoatboy.org > Tumblelog: http://giles.tumblr.com > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > |
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In reply to this post by Nick Thompson
Hi Nicholas,
> Thanks for these comments. Are you actually a person who could make me > understand Bayes intuitively, a little bit? Work through this: http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html I did that a couple of years ago and now I don't know how I could ever _not_ have understood Bayes intuitively. No kidding - Eliezer's tutorial is great (play around with the slides). Of course, this does not mean that the problem of the priors has been solved ;-)) Regards, G?nther -- G?nther Greindl Department of Philosophy of Science University of Vienna guenther.greindl at univie.ac.at http://www.univie.ac.at/Wissenschaftstheorie/ Blog: http://dao.complexitystudies.org/ Site: http://www.complexitystudies.org |
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