Science and simulation for the greater good

[Tom Johnson (via Google Docs)]

A former student of colleague Steve Ross sends this interesting report on
how simulation models can/are being used in the real world:

I'm the communications officer for the International Research Institute for
Climate and Society <http://iri.columbia.edu/> at Columbia University. The
IRI specializes in making forecasts of climate for every part of the world
by using data from satellites, meteorological stations and proxy records
(tree rings, corals, etc) to run models. The models tell us, with varying
degrees of certainty, how much off the "norm" rainfall, temperature and
humidity will be for a given place in the world.  We're not so much
interested in long-term climate change (global warming, sea level rise, etc)
as we are in season-to-season changes (e.g. monsoonal patterns, drought,
flooding, etc.). And the IRI isn't a purely academic institution -- its main
objective is to use the forecasts and climate monitoring to develop and
undertake projects that mitigate the effects of climate change in developing
countries. We never do this alone: all of our efforts are in collaboration
with scientists, policymakers and NGOs in these countries.

Here's a brief description of some projects we're currently working on:

 *Climate and malaria:*
The IRI collects an enormous amount of temperature, rainfall and humidity
data for southern Africa. As it it turns out, the presence or absence of
malaria in a given region depends strongly on these three climate factors,
so scientists here developed a mapping tool that shows the risk of a malaria
epidemic for every month of the year in every part of sub-Saharan Africa. We
train health workers from countries in this area on how to use the
information to adequately prepare for epidemics. (see
/http://tinyurl.com/yxzp7t/ )

*Climate and fire-management*
Fires in Indonesia damage unique and delicate ecosystems, increase carbon
dioxide emissions, and produce noxious smoke and haze that leads to
thousands of hospitalizations every year. Since the intensity and duration
of these fires depend on the amount of rainfall the region receives every
season, the IRI is using its rainfall forecasts to develop an early-warning
system that policymakers and NGOs can use for planning purposes. For
example, if our models tell us there is a strong chance of drought
conditions in the next 3-month period there, our Indonesian partners can
take specific actions, such as conserving irrigation water so that the
fields where these fires occur aren't drained completely and therefore
aren't as susceptible to burning. (see
/http://tinyurl.com/yjehn6/)</http://tinyurl.com/yjehn6/%29>

 *Index-based weather insurance for farmers*
The IRI and the Commodity Risk Management Group at the World Bank are
involved in a project to develop insurance contracts that protect Malawi
farmers against periodic, crop-destroying droughts. Traditionally, farmers
would take out loans to buy seeds at the start of every season. If a drought
occurred, the farmers' crops would die, and they wouldn't be able to pay
back the banks. But under this new program the farmers can purchase an
insurance (a very small percentage of the price of the seeds) against crop
loss when they buy seeds. If a drought occurs, the farmers get a full or
partial payout and can use the money to repay their loans. IRI's role in
this is to use its weather monitoring data for the region to help the local
insurance companies develop reliable contracts. The fascinating aspect of
this program is that it is completely subsidized by the farmers.  (no link
available yet)

 My role in all this is to make these and other projects known to the public
at large.  Many of you receiving this email are journalists of one species
or another. If you are developing stories or graphics that have to do with
climate or earth science, think of me. I'll put you in touch with experts or
send you bucketfuls of GIS and other data.

Francesco Fiondella
Communications Officer
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
61 Route 9W
Palisades, NY 10964
francesco [at] iri.columbia.edu
1.845.680.4476
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--
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J. T. Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA
www.analyticjournalism.com
505.577.6482(c)                                 505.473.9646(h)
http://www.jtjohnson.com                 tom at jtjohnson.us

"You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the
existing model obsolete."
                                                   -- Buckminster Fuller
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