SIR+HD model in JavaScript + Herd Immunity question.

[Steve Smith]

I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is parameterized with sliders.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):

    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js

I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.   This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.

    https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.

While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).  

Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus resistant.  

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.

Mumble,

 - Steve

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[cody dooderson]

I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?

 

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is parameterized with sliders.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):

    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js

I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.   This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.

    https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.

While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).  

Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus resistant.  

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.

Mumble,

 - Steve

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[Steve Smith]

Cody -

Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction today than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be reminded of what I was thinking (or at least saying) back then!

I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would result.  The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing...   the few attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and there were no outbreaks while I was there... see!  I tole'ya it was a Democrat Hoax!".    I think the "return to college" is maybe providing some mixing as well, though I think it is better than the post Spring Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.

I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to have even the most general idea of how significant the differing implied levels of herd-immunity might be.   I remember when some of the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought we might actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd immunity".    Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat ambiguous...

I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as individuals limit the number (and significance) of interactions with others.   It seems that by now, there must be some studies/models that try to address that.   Also the implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually characterizes such?

- Steve

On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote:

I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?

 

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is parameterized with sliders.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):

    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js

I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.   This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.

    https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.

While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).  

Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus resistant.  

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.

Mumble,

 - Steve

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[Steve Smith]

Cody -

Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction today than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be reminded of what I was thinking (or at least saying) back then!

I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would result.  The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing...   the few attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and there were no outbreaks while I was there... see!  I tole'ya it was a Democrat Hoax!".    I think the "return to college" is maybe providing some mixing as well, though I think it is better than the post Spring Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.

I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to have even the most general idea of how significant the differing implied levels of herd-immunity might be.   I remember when some of the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought we might actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd immunity".    Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat ambiguous...

I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as individuals limit the number (and significance) of interactions with others.   It seems that by now, there must be some studies/models that try to address that.   Also the implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually characterizes such?

- Steve

On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote:

I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?

 

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is parameterized with sliders.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):

    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js

I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.   This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.

    https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.

While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).  

Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus resistant.  

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.

Mumble,

 - Steve

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[Steve Smith]

Tentative answer to my own question:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512

On 10/14/20 10:09 AM, Steve Smith wrote:

Cody -

Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction today than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be reminded of what I was thinking (or at least saying) back then!

I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would result.  The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing...   the few attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and there were no outbreaks while I was there... see!  I tole'ya it was a Democrat Hoax!".    I think the "return to college" is maybe providing some mixing as well, though I think it is better than the post Spring Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.

I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to have even the most general idea of how significant the differing implied levels of herd-immunity might be.   I remember when some of the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought we might actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd immunity".    Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat ambiguous...

I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as individuals limit the number (and significance) of interactions with others.   It seems that by now, there must be some studies/models that try to address that.   Also the implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually characterizes such?

- Steve

On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote:

I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?

 

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is parameterized with sliders.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):

    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js

I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.   This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.

    https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.

While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).  

Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus resistant.  

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.

Mumble,

 - Steve

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[Stephen Guerin-5]

Also here's a recent Sep 22 IEEE Spectrum with our friend Mikhail Pokopenko featured on ABM approaches later in the article

"Why Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Is So Damn Hard"
https://spectrum.ieee.org/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/why-modeling-the-spread-of-covid19-is-so-damn-hard

On Wed, Oct 14, 2020 at 11:11 AM Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Tentative answer to my own question:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23512

On 10/14/20 10:09 AM, Steve Smith wrote:

Cody -

Thanks for the nod... though I'm less confident in this prediction today than I was back in April... though it is interesting to be reminded of what I was thinking (or at least saying) back then!

I think there is a lot more interstate mixing than I imagined would result.  The mass attendance at Sturgis is a strong example of gather/scatter with no significant contact-tracing...   the few attendees in my larger circle only report: "I was there all week and there were no outbreaks while I was there... see!  I tole'ya it was a Democrat Hoax!".    I think the "return to college" is maybe providing some mixing as well, though I think it is better than the post Spring Break/Mardi Gras 2020 moments.

I haven't followed up enough on the modeling referenced back then to have even the most general idea of how significant the differing implied levels of herd-immunity might be.   I remember when some of the early broad testing (e.g. whole communities) began and there was evidence of more widespread (asymptomatic) infection (via anti-body detection) and I thought we might actually be able to establish a meaningful level of "herd immunity".    Also the "experiment" that is Sweden seems somewhat ambiguous...

I'm wondering if anyone here with more hands-on experience with network transmission models has thoughts/opinions/ideas on what "herd immunity" means in the context of shifting the shifting valencies as individuals limit the number (and significance) of interactions with others.   It seems that by now, there must be some studies/models that try to address that.   Also the implication of "superspreader" events, and what actually characterizes such?

- Steve

On 10/14/20 9:28 AM, cody dooderson wrote:

I was just looking back for a previous conversation about herd immunity and came across what seems to be an accurate prediction from Steve Smith.

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?

 

Cody Smith

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:46 PM Steven A Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I'm sure many have seen this... if not scroll to the bottom for the JS model (you can download/inspect/modify the code if you like)...   It doesn't stop at SIR but adds H(ospitalization) and D(eath)...   and is parameterized with sliders.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html

And the JS (warning,huge with lots of device/browser-specific cruft):

    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/03/16/opinion-coronavirus-model-2/d268775237c095931fe2fae6015c568c0011fd76/build/js/main.js

I don't feel comfortable having a strong opinion about this beyond echoing what THIS article says about the risk of quick mitigation followed by return-to-normal *without* establishing significant herd-immunity.   This author refers to it as "hiding infections in the future" and makes a good point about staving off infection too well for too long and getting hit hard next "cold and flu" season IF we haven't established good treatment, increased health care capacity, and/or effective vaccines.

    https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

For better or worse, other countries are trying different mixtures and styles of mitigation and have different levels of health-care capacity and ability to location-track and shut down mobility.

While many criticize (or defend) the lax or laggy response of many Red States, this provides yet another diversity/ensemble study for the ultimate "model" of all... in this case, the territory IS the territory, the population IS one big fat analog computer for calculating the pandemic (the answer to which, is naturally 42).  

Of course, "scofflaw" communities like the spring-break youth, the evangelical churches, and states like Georgia with governers who say "we didn't know that people without symptoms could be infectious until 24 hours ago!" represent a reservoir for exposure if they continue to mix, but might end up being a source of virus resistant.  

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/04/coronavirus-state-social-distancing-policy/

https://faculty.washington.edu/cadolph/papers/AABFW2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR09JwtQzEkerOGiRXxaiptbyDqGZZ7_7Ullg7UX9qtVDFWumdKZGF8WOzY

My post-apocalyptic novel might include a study on this:   What if the Blue States mitigate hard and fast, in spite of losing the battle in a few states like high-density, early onset new york/new jersey,  and reduce deaths (including ones avoidable if not for overwhelming health-care) but also reduce herd-immunity.  And the Red States limit their mitigation, take a huge hit in infection and death (but moderated by mostly being less-dense states) but come out the other side with better herd-immunity.   I can imagine fresh border-checks (remember when every state border crossing had a weigh station for trucks?) to restrict Red Staters infecting Blue States early on, then later vice-versa?   Seems like the ongoing extraction economy in (mostly Red States) is pretty social-distancy while the more service economy of Blue States is at risk... though professional and even office work is nominally quite easily social-disanced.

Mumble,

 - Steve

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