SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

[Stephen Guerin-5]

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

[Steve Smith]

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

SS

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[thompnickson2]

Steve,

 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are, “Can we eliminate community transfer?”  and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

 

Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential. 

 

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.

 

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

 

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

 

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

 

SS

 

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

_______________________________________________________________________
[hidden email]

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505

office: [phone] mobile: [phone]

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[Frank Wimberly-2]

Wisconsin's primary is underway despite the governor's attempt to postpone it.  People in the (long!) lines are standing 6 feet apart more or less.

On Tue, Apr 7, 2020, 10:51 AM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Steve,

 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are, “Can we eliminate community transfer?”  and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

 

Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential. 

 

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.

 

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

 

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

 

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

 

SS

 

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

_______________________________________________________________________
[hidden email]

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505

office: [phone] mobile: [phone]

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[Steve Smith]

Steve,

 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are,

“Can we eliminate community transfer?” 

By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?

The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential growth) below 1.0... 

and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In principle,  keeping

 Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential. 

Re: Balkanization

I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns...   compared for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.

And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes.

In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity.   So Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?

I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid dehumanization of "the other"...  a "friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?   Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"?  then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?

 

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.

I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course).   I don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail).   Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots. 

The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately.  I'm hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main elections which will be much more controversial.

I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.

- STeve

 

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

 

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

 

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

 

SS

 

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

_______________________________________________________________________
[hidden email]

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505

office: [phone] mobile: [phone]

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[Steve Smith]

and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In principle,  keeping

... <sorry>  ... keeping strong "cells" or "cliques" or "islands" with very limited out-group contact is more important than *everyone* keeping 6' distance, washing their hands, covering their face, etc.   I have several "cliques" in my social circle which I have very limited in-person contact, and each one has a very different level of in-group-hygiene.   At least one is a very "leaky" cell... with one member who simply doesn't take the whole thing seriously.  I avoid direct contact with her and her space, but I do have very infrequent (once a week or less) contact (with 6' distance for short periods without much exchange of objects) with her 80+ year old husband who I know to be *much* more careful and perhaps much more likely to become symptomatic more quickly if *she* does bring him some Corona?   

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[thompnickson2]

Steve (Smith),

 

I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of those bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance.  If we were unable to find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance of “community transmission”.  Am I wrong about that? 

 

So, community transmission is just the residue after we have failed at contact tracing.  My assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous contact tracing (and isolation) possible.  In other words, I have to have contacted so few people (because of social isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted can be isolated for two weeks.  Such a policy might permit the reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the food stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of entertainment venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars, festivals, large scale air travel,  and other activities that we think of when we think of “tourism”. 

 

I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the fact that you seem to disagree with me on this point. 

 

 

Nick

 

 

 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

Steve,

 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are,

“Can we eliminate community transfer?” 

By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?

The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential growth) below 1.0... 

and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In principle,  keeping

 Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential. 

Re: Balkanization

I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns...   compared for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.

And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes.

In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity.   So Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?

I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid dehumanization of "the other"...  a "friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?   Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"?  then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?

 

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.

I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course).   I don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail).   Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots. 

The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately.  I'm hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main elections which will be much more controversial.

I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.

- STeve

 

 

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

 

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

 

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

 

SS

 

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

_______________________________________________________________________
[hidden email]

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505

office: [phone] mobile: [phone]

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[Steve Smith]

Nick -

I wrote (yet) another long-winded answer but am trying to give you the most succinct version I can:

I think you are nearly correct.

First: Yes, "community transmission" is somewhat another name for our ignorance... but it is a critical threshold.  As soon as you have one case  you don't know where it came from, it is very likely that you have more, and for each of those, you will have yet more...  so it isn't quite as benign as simple "ignorance" implies...

Second:  The virus will spread exponentially until we reduce the average number of people to be infected by a given infected person.   This is what is called R0.   As people get infected and recover and therefore become (very likely) immune, the number of susceptible individuals in the population goes down, and the R0 with it.  If you encounter 10 people a day on average, and have a 20% chance of infecting them but half of them are immune, then your R0 becomes 10*.2/2 = 1.0 !    When R0 drops to 1.0, the exponential growth flattens to linear and anything below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying out.    A widely deployed vaccine allows you to skip the step of having to become infected, survive, and recover.  

In the meantime (before sufficient herd-immunity is reached naturally, augmented by vaccines eventually) we need to practice some amount of social distancing to keep R0 down.   As we learn more about the modes of transmission, add early detection (through widespread testing, and possibly wide-spread citizen-reporting) then our best hope is significant social distancing.  Meanwhile, more severe social distancing protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with conditions known to go badly with COVID19).   We will see properly vetted/tested anti-virals and symptom-reducers (e.g. cytokine storm prevention) before a vaccine which will reduce the number of people needing hospitalization as well as mortality.  And lastly, antibody/plasma transfusions may help some of the  more at-risk or critical workers have temporary immunity while they wait for a vaccine.

Right now, many of us are isolated at the individual, the couple or possibly the nuclear family unit.  In principle, once we believe we have isolated sufficiently well to not have much risk of contagion and sufficiently long to have either had symptoms or to have been infected asymptomatically but recovered.   This might mean, for example, that if you and your wife and your children and their children have all remained separated but isolated, then you might be safe reuniting with them as long as NONE OF YOU are mixing with a larger population.  

But like with the STD issue, all it takes is one promiscuous (outside the group) person at the orgy to ruin the "safe space".   The larger the (extended) group, the more chance someone will defect and bring it into the group unexpectedly.

So yes, much of what you call tourism will be blunted/modified... so will casino gambling,  church attendance, public transit, etc.   I believe that buses are still running some places, but most passengers are likely wearing gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the staff is wiping down hand-rails and other surfaces often.   Airlines will probably stand back up under similar restrictions soon.  Churches and maybe sporting events, and theater as well.   But probably not for (many?) months...   

I still remember when auditoriums and movie theaters had ashtrays in the backs of seats...   we will probably remember fondly when seats were packed side-by-by side and our great grandchildren will ask "grandpa... why are there all those holes in the floor between the seats?  People didn't *really* sit so close did they?  Don't they know that isn't safe?"  and "why weren't you wearing your masks in all the old pictures?".

Hope this helps a little?

- Steve

Steve (Smith),

 

I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of those bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance.  If we were unable to find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance of “community transmission”.  Am I wrong about that? 

 

So, community transmission is just the residue after we have failed at contact tracing.  My assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous contact tracing (and isolation) possible.  In other words, I have to have contacted so few people (because of social isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted can be isolated for two weeks.  Such a policy might permit the reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the food stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of entertainment venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars, festivals, large scale air travel,  and other activities that we think of when we think of “tourism”. 

 

I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the fact that you seem to disagree with me on this point. 

 

 

Nick

 

 

 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

Steve,

 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are,

“Can we eliminate community transfer?” 

By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?

The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential growth) below 1.0... 

and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In principle,  keeping

 Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential. 

Re: Balkanization

I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns...   compared for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.

And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes.

In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity.   So Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?

I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid dehumanization of "the other"...  a "friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?   Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"?  then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?

 

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.

I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course).   I don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail).   Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots. 

The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately.  I'm hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main elections which will be much more controversial.

I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.

- STeve

 

 

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

 

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

 

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

 

SS

 

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

_______________________________________________________________________
[hidden email]

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505

office: [phone] mobile: [phone]

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[thompnickson2]

Steve,

 

I like your long wind. 

 

I am grateful for your attempt to imagine a world in the interim between the wave and the vaccine. 

 

Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places? 

 

Nick

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:38 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

 

Nick -

I wrote (yet) another long-winded answer but am trying to give you the most succinct version I can:

 

I think you are nearly correct.

 

First: Yes, "community transmission" is somewhat another name for our ignorance... but it is a critical threshold.  As soon as you have one case  you don't know where it came from, it is very likely that you have more, and for each of those, you will have yet more...  so it isn't quite as benign as simple "ignorance" implies...

 

Second:  The virus will spread exponentially until we reduce the average number of people to be infected by a given infected person.   This is what is called R0.   As people get infected and recover and therefore become (very likely) immune, the number of susceptible individuals in the population goes down, and the R0 with it.  If you encounter 10 people a day on average, and have a 20% chance of infecting them but half of them are immune, then your R0 becomes 10*.2/2 = 1.0 !    When R0 drops to 1.0, the exponential growth flattens to linear and anything below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying out.    A widely deployed vaccine allows you to skip the step of having to become infected, survive, and recover.  

 

In the meantime (before sufficient herd-immunity is reached naturally, augmented by vaccines eventually) we need to practice some amount of social distancing to keep R0 down.   As we learn more about the modes of transmission, add early detection (through widespread testing, and possibly wide-spread citizen-reporting) then our best hope is significant social distancing.  Meanwhile, more severe social distancing protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with conditions known to go badly with COVID19).   We will see properly vetted/tested anti-virals and symptom-reducers (e.g. cytokine storm prevention) before a vaccine which will reduce the number of people needing hospitalization as well as mortality.  And lastly, antibody/plasma transfusions may help some of the  more at-risk or critical workers have temporary immunity while they wait for a vaccine.

 

Right now, many of us are isolated at the individual, the couple or possibly the nuclear family unit.  In principle, once we believe we have isolated sufficiently well to not have much risk of contagion and sufficiently long to have either had symptoms or to have been infected asymptomatically but recovered.   This might mean, for example, that if you and your wife and your children and their children have all remained separated but isolated, then you might be safe reuniting with them as long as NONE OF YOU are mixing with a larger population.  

 

But like with the STD issue, all it takes is one promiscuous (outside the group) person at the orgy to ruin the "safe space".   The larger the (extended) group, the more chance someone will defect and bring it into the group unexpectedly.

 

So yes, much of what you call tourism will be blunted/modified... so will casino gambling,  church attendance, public transit, etc.   I believe that buses are still running some places, but most passengers are likely wearing gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the staff is wiping down hand-rails and other surfaces often.   Airlines will probably stand back up under similar restrictions soon.  Churches and maybe sporting events, and theater as well.   But probably not for (many?) months...   

 

I still remember when auditoriums and movie theaters had ashtrays in the backs of seats...   we will probably remember fondly when seats were packed side-by-by side and our great grandchildren will ask "grandpa... why are there all those holes in the floor between the seats?  People didn't *really* sit so close did they?  Don't they know that isn't safe?"  and "why weren't you wearing your masks in all the old pictures?".

 

Hope this helps a little?

 

- Steve

Steve (Smith),

 

I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of those bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance.  If we were unable to find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance of “community transmission”.  Am I wrong about that? 

 

So, community transmission is just the residue after we have failed at contact tracing.  My assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous contact tracing (and isolation) possible.  In other words, I have to have contacted so few people (because of social isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted can be isolated for two weeks.  Such a policy might permit the reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the food stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of entertainment venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars, festivals, large scale air travel,  and other activities that we think of when we think of “tourism”. 

 

I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the fact that you seem to disagree with me on this point. 

 

 

Nick

 

 

 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

Steve,

 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are,

“Can we eliminate community transfer?” 

By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?

The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential growth) below 1.0... 

and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In principle,  keeping

 Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential. 

Re: Balkanization

I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns...   compared for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.

And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes.

In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity.   So Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?

I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid dehumanization of "the other"...  a "friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?   Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"?  then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?

 

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.

I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course).   I don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail).   Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots. 

The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately.  I'm hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main elections which will be much more controversial.

I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.

- STeve

 

 

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

 

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

 

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

 

SS

 

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

_______________________________________________________________________
[hidden email]

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505

office: [phone] mobile: [phone]

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[David Eric Smith]

Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places?  

I would bet very high odds that is not the case.

They have probably greatly reduced the caseload.  Friends there say they are rebuilding daily activities (up in Beijing, which was not by far the hardest hit) slowly, carefully, and incrementally.  But not by any stretch is life normal, or expected to revert to normal in any foreseeable future.

There was an NYT piece a few days ago saying that the intelligence dept. is trying to get accurate case numbers because they don’t believe the central government is reporting either honestly or accurately.  That seems a decent bet.  And to the extent that this info is not coming from trump stooges at the top, but being leaked from somewhere in the middle ranks, it is probably coming from committed professionals who are concerned with what is true.

My guess is that the forensics of what is going on in China will take a long time to perform, and probably important information will be suppressed until it can be lost forever.  So for some of it ignoramus et ignoramibus.

All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective.  Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.

Eric

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[Steve Smith]

Steve,

 

I like your long wind. 

 

I am grateful for your attempt to imagine a world in the interim between the wave and the vaccine.

In the world pre-vaccine (including among wild animal populations), the only thing keeping a disease from extincting a population IS a combination of herd-immunity through antibody formation and death itself.  Highly deadly things like Ebola burn out because they kill nearly everyone who contracts it, leaving nobody in the village to re-infect.   Entire populations can get wiped out in the wild...  (early 2000s, the magpies on the Rio Grande were decimated and are only just now starting to return)

Our modern hyper-mixing (travel at many scales yielding contact graphs at many scales) really aggravates disease spread cum epidemic cum pandemic.

 

Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places? 

I doubt it... and your reference to a "fire" analogy is apt...  the sparks are more likely coming from smoldering areas *within*... catching flame in a wind and tosssing sparks into the next unburned patch...

 

Nick

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:38 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

 

Nick -

I wrote (yet) another long-winded answer but am trying to give you the most succinct version I can:

 

I think you are nearly correct.

 

First: Yes, "community transmission" is somewhat another name for our ignorance... but it is a critical threshold.  As soon as you have one case  you don't know where it came from, it is very likely that you have more, and for each of those, you will have yet more...  so it isn't quite as benign as simple "ignorance" implies...

 

Second:  The virus will spread exponentially until we reduce the average number of people to be infected by a given infected person.   This is what is called R0.   As people get infected and recover and therefore become (very likely) immune, the number of susceptible individuals in the population goes down, and the R0 with it.  If you encounter 10 people a day on average, and have a 20% chance of infecting them but half of them are immune, then your R0 becomes 10*.2/2 = 1.0 !    When R0 drops to 1.0, the exponential growth flattens to linear and anything below 1.0 leads to an eventual dying out.    A widely deployed vaccine allows you to skip the step of having to become infected, survive, and recover.  

 

In the meantime (before sufficient herd-immunity is reached naturally, augmented by vaccines eventually) we need to practice some amount of social distancing to keep R0 down.   As we learn more about the modes of transmission, add early detection (through widespread testing, and possibly wide-spread citizen-reporting) then our best hope is significant social distancing.  Meanwhile, more severe social distancing protects our most vulnerable (elderly and those with conditions known to go badly with COVID19).   We will see properly vetted/tested anti-virals and symptom-reducers (e.g. cytokine storm prevention) before a vaccine which will reduce the number of people needing hospitalization as well as mortality.  And lastly, antibody/plasma transfusions may help some of the  more at-risk or critical workers have temporary immunity while they wait for a vaccine.

 

Right now, many of us are isolated at the individual, the couple or possibly the nuclear family unit.  In principle, once we believe we have isolated sufficiently well to not have much risk of contagion and sufficiently long to have either had symptoms or to have been infected asymptomatically but recovered.   This might mean, for example, that if you and your wife and your children and their children have all remained separated but isolated, then you might be safe reuniting with them as long as NONE OF YOU are mixing with a larger population.  

 

But like with the STD issue, all it takes is one promiscuous (outside the group) person at the orgy to ruin the "safe space".   The larger the (extended) group, the more chance someone will defect and bring it into the group unexpectedly.

 

So yes, much of what you call tourism will be blunted/modified... so will casino gambling,  church attendance, public transit, etc.   I believe that buses are still running some places, but most passengers are likely wearing gloves/masks, sitting one per seat-row and the staff is wiping down hand-rails and other surfaces often.   Airlines will probably stand back up under similar restrictions soon.  Churches and maybe sporting events, and theater as well.   But probably not for (many?) months...   

 

I still remember when auditoriums and movie theaters had ashtrays in the backs of seats...   we will probably remember fondly when seats were packed side-by-by side and our great grandchildren will ask "grandpa... why are there all those holes in the floor between the seats?  People didn't *really* sit so close did they?  Don't they know that isn't safe?"  and "why weren't you wearing your masks in all the old pictures?".

 

Hope this helps a little?

 

- Steve

Steve (Smith),

 

I have always assumed that “community transmission” is one of those bullshit terms that refers to our own ignorance.  If we were unable to find out how it got transmitted then it was an instance of “community transmission”.  Am I wrong about that? 

 

So, community transmission is just the residue after we have failed at contact tracing.  My assumption is that until we have a vaccine, we have to maintain sufficient social distancing to make rigorous contact tracing (and isolation) possible.  In other words, I have to have contacted so few people (because of social isolation) that when I get sick, all the people I have contacted can be isolated for two weeks.  Such a policy might permit the reopening of offices on a alternative shift basis and the re opening of some stores with policies equivalent to those the food stores are adopting, but it wont permit reopening of entertainment venues, hair dressers, concerts, churches, lecture halls, bars, festivals, large scale air travel,  and other activities that we think of when we think of “tourism”. 

 

I WANT to think different, and therefore I am interested in the fact that you seem to disagree with me on this point. 

 

 

Nick

 

 

 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 6:07 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

Steve,

 

Perhaps we might talk about this on Friday.   I guess the questions are,

“Can we eliminate community transfer?” 

By this, I assume you mean the "crypto" transfer where the *source* of infection isn't recognized even in retrospect?

The conventional/modeling wisdom is keeping R0 (the number of people each infected person infects... or the *exponent* of the exponential growth) below 1.0... 

and, if so, “At what level of social distancing do we have to maintain in order to make sure that a program of testing, vigorous contact tracing and isolation is assured?”

I would claim that the *quality* of social distancing is very important...  but those "qualities" haven't been determined yet.   In principle,  keeping

 Not clear how to do that in the blue states if the red states are still going exponential. 

Re: Balkanization

I speculated in another thread (another forum?) that if the Red States continue to be reluctant to self-isolate, they will pay the price in a tall curve, mitigated somewhat by the lower population densities and "enclave" nature of many small towns...   compared for example to big cities connected by a carpet of suburbs mixing commuters from multiple urban centers in every neighborhood.

And then that Blue States might manage to flatten their curves more quickly but aggravated by the nature of denser urban/suburban landscapes.

In the end, the Red States may have more (percentage) infections and deaths, but what goes with that is higher herd-immunity.   So Blue States might want to close their borders to Red States during the first wave, but then the Red States might want to close them the other direction when "infiltrating" Blues are more likely to be crypto-infected?

I didn't like that Zombie Apocalypse series that was so popular a few years ago because I felt it promoted xenophobia and rapid dehumanization of "the other"...  a "friend" can become a "dangerous enemy" at the drop of a splash of blood (or spittle in this case)?   Or maybe we can follow @POTUS lead and "vote by tweet"?  then the battle will be between Russian, Chinese, and Anonymous Bots stuffing the @USElectionBallotBox ;) ?

 

Also, I would like to hear a lot of wisdom about how we arrange and conduct an election during this mess.

I think this is not so much a technical problem as a social one. FOX and their most famous audience in the White House are already making sounds against the idea of voting by mail as A) Unamerican; B) likely to be cheated (only Democrats cheat of course).   I don't think it is an insurmountable technical problem (vote by mail).   Expanded "early voting" can help a lot, as can absentee ballots. 

The scene in Wisconsin today is a good advanced test-case of how refactoring the mechanics of an election (timing, absentee, mail, etc.) will be politicized immediately.  I'm hoping that the remaining Democrat primaries and the Convention will serve as a lightning rod to bring some of that out *before* the main elections which will be much more controversial.

I am hoping that we collectively have a much better handle on things by then and the problem becomes *mostly* moot... though I can imagine there will be more demand for early/absentee voting in all venues.

- STeve

 

 

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steven A Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:16 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] SFI virtual workshop: After the Wave

 

SG

I found Meyers' talks from the Fall which preceded (presaged?) this and thought you had just linked those!  I'm glad to see our "big siblings on the hill" are on this with full attention.

 

Did anyone else watch this 2 hour presentation?  I'm working my way through it now in the background.

 

SS

 

I mentioned this on the close of Virtual Friam today:
  https://santafe.edu/news-center/news/after-first-wave-virtual-workshop-covid-19-pandemic 

The first wave of COVID-19 is well underway, and social distancing will hopefully bend the curve downward (after far too high a price is paid). But what comes next? Under what circumstances and in what way can we lift quarantine? On March 31, five speakers from epidemiology and economics discussed strategies for both public health and economic recovery and answered questions from the SFI community. This was the first of multiple “lightning workshops” that will be convened to address this crisis.

Speakers: Lauren Ancel Meyers, Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin; SFI Sara Del Valle, Los Alamos National Laboratory Caroline Buckee, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard Rajiv Sethi, Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University; SFI Glen Weyl, Microsoft and RadicalxChange Foundation 

_______________________________________________________________________
[hidden email]

CEO, Simtable  http://www.simtable.com

1600 Lena St #D1, Santa Fe, NM 87505

office: [phone] mobile: [phone]

twitter: @simtable

zoom.com/j/5055775828

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / --- ..-. / ..-. .-. .. .- -- / ..- -. .. - .

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom meeting Fridays 9:30a-12p Mountain USA GMT-6    https://bit.ly/virtualfriam

to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[gepr]

What troubles me in all this is the (coarse) granularity. Whole state stay-at-home orders deny the reality that many states are diverse, geographically, demographically, etc. But I suppose it's par for the course because our coarse grain misgovernance shows up everywhere, not only in the response to this crisis, but in voting, in-network healthcare, Walmart/Amazon logistics, ... hell even in the remote diagnosis of Trump's mental disorders <https://www.salon.com/2020/04/08/yale-psychiatrist-bandy-lee-trumps-deadly-briefings-display-anti-human-psychology/> by non-experts.

Steve's ideas around clique-specific methods are attractive, but ultimately infeasible because we will *never* have enough fine-grained information to make such methods data-driven. And even if we did, I think 2 fundamental conditions would obtain: 1) celebrity expert-deniers like Alex Jones, Joe Rogan, and Gwyneth Paltrow would be gravity wells for the attention of us lazy normals and/or 2) something like gerrymandering, where the specific methods would be too complicated for us couch potatoes to follow.

Contrast hypothetical proposals for such network-specific methods against the tight, universal, semantic grounding of "don't shake hands" and "stay home". My guess is a full dictatorial clamp down will be effective precisely because it leaves no finagle room for (1) or (2). There's no room for dithering between "experts" or the artificial seizure of expertise by non-experts (like George Conway). And the reason the US will suffer in practice, despite the theoretical and "anti-human" benefits of a diverse response, is because we're a Federal system.

However, a story from the radio or somesuch the other day seems to contradict me. (I was exercising and couldn't pay close enough attention.) I heard someone *assert* that Germany is fairing, practically, so well against the virus *because* it's federated. I can't find a link to that or similar stories. So, I can't tell if they're just post-hoc rationalizing or have some data to show it's the federated decoupling that's causative.

On 4/7/20 10:52 PM, David Eric Smith wrote:
> All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective.  Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.


--
☣ uǝlƃ

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[thompnickson2]

Hi, Eric

 

Taiwan BETTER than China!?  That’s something, isn’t it?  Isn’t there some real hope in that?

 

Where do I go to learn in detail about Taiwan’s response.

 

Nick

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:53 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places?  

 

I would bet very high odds that is not the case.

 

They have probably greatly reduced the caseload.  Friends there say they are rebuilding daily activities (up in Beijing, which was not by far the hardest hit) slowly, carefully, and incrementally.  But not by any stretch is life normal, or expected to revert to normal in any foreseeable future.

 

There was an NYT piece a few days ago saying that the intelligence dept. is trying to get accurate case numbers because they don’t believe the central government is reporting either honestly or accurately.  That seems a decent bet.  And to the extent that this info is not coming from trump stooges at the top, but being leaked from somewhere in the middle ranks, it is probably coming from committed professionals who are concerned with what is true.

 

My guess is that the forensics of what is going on in China will take a long time to perform, and probably important information will be suppressed until it can be lost forever.  So for some of it ignoramus et ignoramibus.

 

All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective.  Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.

 

Eric

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[gepr]

Aha! Found it:

Why Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/820595489/why-germanys-coronavirus-death-rate-is-far-lower-than-in-other-countries

So, I suppose the (hypothetical) causal flow goes something like: federated system allows for first-past-the-post test development, lots of early testing leads to more accurate estimates of infected, leads to finer grained response (including earlier realization about asymptomatic transmission).

But this sounds a bit like rationalization to me. The causation centers on lots of testing, however that testing arises. A centralized system that ramps up testing quickly would have the same result. In the case of the US, our federation did NOT result in a ramp up of early testing (well, it did here ... UW did the lion's share of early testing here in WA, but not over the entire federation of states). So our federal system will see the *bad* of being a federation, but not the good ... at least until after the poor and frail die and those of us who survive can rationalize about how our diversity makes us so healthy.


On 4/8/20 6:31 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> However, a story from the radio or somesuch the other day seems to contradict me. (I was exercising and couldn't pay close enough attention.) I heard someone *assert* that Germany is fairing, practically, so well against the virus *because* it's federated. I can't find a link to that or similar stories. So, I can't tell if they're just post-hoc rationalizing or have some data to show it's the federated decoupling that's causative.


--
☣ uǝlƃ

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[Steve Smith]

Glen -
I appreciate the gist of your thinking here...  I suppose the
overarching nature of my own is toward the *diversity* of the federated
subunits yielding a broader search-strategy for optimal (satisficing?)
response-strategies.   The net result is sub-optimal in terms of
minimizing suffering or reducing worse-case scenarios across the board,
but more optimal for finding unique edge/corner case strategies.    

The EU is probably a MORE interesting study than the Federated-United
States of 'Murrica in that they have a broader range of cultural/social
norms and more recent habit/ability to shut down borders and enforce
things on their citizens (and guests) more strictly and diversely.   

I've been thinking/studying/even-feeling through a multi-scale network
lens of sorts...   checking in with my friends and relations around the
world (including the folks here who have weighed in from around the
world) (BTW... we have a moderately broad geo-political distribution
here and I would love to hear *more* direct experiences from this
community...  Expat in Ecuador, Native of INdia, Australians,
German(s?), Egyptian, Cuban, ???).  

My own global connections span AU, NZ, Ukraine, UK, SE, NL.  I'm sure
among us, we have a 1st order connection that covers much of the
globe.     In my case, I'm watching how my two daughters in OR and CO
are experiencing this, while my mother/sister IN AZ are having
yet-another very different experience (the first two follow Democracy
Now! while the last two watch Fox&Friends on TV).

As we try to meta-model (gather/analyze data and build toy models) this
pandemic is exposing a LOT of assumptions about social mixing,
especially under emergency conditions...   and circumstances evolving
over time as awareness/denial evolves over time.    Also the dual of
social/mobility-networks (commutes, shopping, family/friend visiting,
long-distance travel) and geopolitical regions (state/nation borders).

Simultaneously I'm looking at my 1.49 acre homestead and (mildly)
preparing it for "the coming Apocalypse" by being more thoughtful about
what/when/how I plant, adding chickens, building up some off-grid
PV/storage so I can maintian comms and water even if my (end of a long
line) power fails due to (minor) social/infrastructure breakdown.   This
leads to thinking at many scales from the microorganisms in the guts of
the worms in my vermicompost to the vegetable scraps I give them to the
size of the seeds Iplant in the pots, raised beds, and furrows, to the
bushes, saplings and mature trees.   The amount of power my cell-phone
wants to stay connected to the amount my laptop wants to play videos,
the amount my solar heat needs to circulate hot air from collector to
rock-bed, to what my well requires to deliver garden-scale water, to
what my Chevy Volt wants to take me on a round trip to the nearest town.
  These are all orders-of-magnitude apart , while their utility is
roughly inversely scaled for some purposes.

Ramble,
 - Steve

> Aha! Found it:
>
> Why Germany's Coronavirus Death Rate Is Far Lower Than In Other Countries
> https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/820595489/why-germanys-coronavirus-death-rate-is-far-lower-than-in-other-countries
>
> So, I suppose the (hypothetical) causal flow goes something like: federated system allows for first-past-the-post test development, lots of early testing leads to more accurate estimates of infected, leads to finer grained response (including earlier realization about asymptomatic transmission).
>
> But this sounds a bit like rationalization to me. The causation centers on lots of testing, however that testing arises. A centralized system that ramps up testing quickly would have the same result. In the case of the US, our federation did NOT result in a ramp up of early testing (well, it did here ... UW did the lion's share of early testing here in WA, but not over the entire federation of states). So our federal system will see the *bad* of being a federation, but not the good ... at least until after the poor and frail die and those of us who survive can rationalize about how our diversity makes us so healthy.
>
>
> On 4/8/20 6:31 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
>> However, a story from the radio or somesuch the other day seems to contradict me. (I was exercising and couldn't pay close enough attention.) I heard someone *assert* that Germany is fairing, practically, so well against the virus *because* it's federated. I can't find a link to that or similar stories. So, I can't tell if they're just post-hoc rationalizing or have some data to show it's the federated decoupling that's causative.
>

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[gepr]

While I sympathize with the *idea* of diversity as a way to maintain a kind of "bottom floor" agility, sacrificing some higher optimal, but probably fragile, narrower solution set, the question devolves (again) to what the normals will do. I know you're not an ivory tower type. But I think your cognitive facility may lead you into some of the same rat holes. Diversity ... *true* diversity will come from *below* the conscious/thought radar ... from our bones, from the bugs that live in side and surround us, etc. And, in practice, that means preserving the lives of the frail and avoiding right wing tropes like "self-made man" and "survival of the fittest".

My point percolates within what you say below. But I can tell a more personal, similar, story so that it looks less like an "attack" on you (even though I know you're tough enough to handle whatever wimpy attack I might launch 8^). Renee' was/is a part of the CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) back in OR. And the first thing they tell you is to FIRST, take care of yourself, THEN and only then, once you're in a good position, consider helping others. The rhetoric is that if you can't take care of yourself, then you're only causing problems for other people and the best way to help is to not cause problems for others. (cf billionaire philanthropy [ptouie])

I've tried to point out how completely, fantastically, wrong that sentiment is. It's rooted in the same bias to individual ontogeny that's led to our current state of malignant capitalism. I'm not immune to the bias, of course. For my entire lifetime, I've relied on both my physical and mental agility to win the day out of all sorts of bad situations. And I often used to think that if others were more like me (stay prepared, exercise, eat right, readreadreadreadread, stash some money, learn to cook/brew/weld, etc.) then we wouldn't be in the mess we're in. But it's just so wrong. What I think is right is that we are an indivisible *goo*. There is no boundary between me and the homeless kid I just drove by on my way to the glass drop-off. If that homeless kid isn't prepared, then *I'm* not prepared.

From that perspective, the diversity you impute looks like a fiction ... a delusional idealism. I still argue for diversity. But it's obtuse, occult, and deeply ensconced within things we are unlikely to tease out, analyze into, divide up, ratio-nally. And if we pretend that we are (or will soon be able to) do that, then we're akin to people like Sam Harris, Jonathan Haidt, or Steven Pinker, whose superficially *benign* rhetoric facilitates gamers like Trump in their quest to feed their own egos.

And from that perspective, the centralized Chinese style clamp-down may well preserve diversity way better than our (probably fictional) federated system will.

On 4/8/20 12:03 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:

> Simultaneously I'm looking at my 1.49 acre homestead and (mildly)
> preparing it for "the coming Apocalypse" by being more thoughtful about
> what/when/how I plant, adding chickens, building up some off-grid
> PV/storage so I can maintian comms and water even if my (end of a long
> line) power fails due to (minor) social/infrastructure breakdown.   This
> leads to thinking at many scales from the microorganisms in the guts of
> the worms in my vermicompost to the vegetable scraps I give them to the
> size of the seeds Iplant in the pots, raised beds, and furrows, to the
> bushes, saplings and mature trees.   The amount of power my cell-phone
> wants to stay connected to the amount my laptop wants to play videos,
> the amount my solar heat needs to circulate hot air from collector to
> rock-bed, to what my well requires to deliver garden-scale water, to
> what my Chevy Volt wants to take me on a round trip to the nearest town.
>   These are all orders-of-magnitude apart , while their utility is
> roughly inversely scaled for some purposes.

--
☣ uǝlƃ

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[Marcus G. Daniels]

Glen writes:

< But it's just so wrong. What I think is right is that we are an indivisible *goo*. There is no boundary between me and the homeless kid I just drove by on my way to the glass drop-off. If that homeless kid isn't prepared, then *I'm* not prepared. >

Looking at metagenomic data is kind of fun.  Oh look, in this sample we have SARS-Cov2, Green Monkey, and Chlamydia abortus.   Who is to say which organism is more interesting?  It's probably how alien visitors would evaluate humans going to the glass drop-off or a homeless kid under a bridge.  Suddenly that nothing little virus got a whole lot more interesting to the arrogant humans!   The homeless kid has a whole nervous system. 

Marcus

---

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ <[hidden email]>
Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2020 2:42 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

While I sympathize with the *idea* of diversity as a way to maintain a kind of "bottom floor" agility, sacrificing some higher optimal, but probably fragile, narrower solution set, the question devolves (again) to what the normals will do. I know you're not an ivory tower type. But I think your cognitive facility may lead you into some of the same rat holes. Diversity ... *true* diversity will come from *below* the conscious/thought radar ... from our bones, from the bugs that live in side and surround us, etc. And, in practice, that means preserving the lives of the frail and avoiding right wing tropes like "self-made man" and "survival of the fittest".

My point percolates within what you say below. But I can tell a more personal, similar, story so that it looks less like an "attack" on you (even though I know you're tough enough to handle whatever wimpy attack I might launch 8^). Renee' was/is a part of the CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) back in OR. And the first thing they tell you is to FIRST, take care of yourself, THEN and only then, once you're in a good position, consider helping others. The rhetoric is that if you can't take care of yourself, then you're only causing problems for other people and the best way to help is to not cause problems for others. (cf billionaire philanthropy [ptouie])

I've tried to point out how completely, fantastically, wrong that sentiment is. It's rooted in the same bias to individual ontogeny that's led to our current state of malignant capitalism. I'm not immune to the bias, of course. For my entire lifetime, I've relied on both my physical and mental agility to win the day out of all sorts of bad situations. And I often used to think that if others were more like me (stay prepared, exercise, eat right, readreadreadreadread, stash some money, learn to cook/brew/weld, etc.) then we wouldn't be in the mess we're in. But it's just so wrong. What I think is right is that we are an indivisible *goo*. There is no boundary between me and the homeless kid I just drove by on my way to the glass drop-off. If that homeless kid isn't prepared, then *I'm* not prepared.

From that perspective, the diversity you impute looks like a fiction ... a delusional idealism. I still argue for diversity. But it's obtuse, occult, and deeply ensconced within things we are unlikely to tease out, analyze into, divide up, ratio-nally. And if we pretend that we are (or will soon be able to) do that, then we're akin to people like Sam Harris, Jonathan Haidt, or Steven Pinker, whose superficially *benign* rhetoric facilitates gamers like Trump in their quest to feed their own egos.

And from that perspective, the centralized Chinese style clamp-down may well preserve diversity way better than our (probably fictional) federated system will.

On 4/8/20 12:03 PM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> Simultaneously I'm looking at my 1.49 acre homestead and (mildly)
> preparing it for "the coming Apocalypse" by being more thoughtful about
> what/when/how I plant, adding chickens, building up some off-grid
> PV/storage so I can maintian comms and water even if my (end of a long
> line) power fails due to (minor) social/infrastructure breakdown.   This
> leads to thinking at many scales from the microorganisms in the guts of
> the worms in my vermicompost to the vegetable scraps I give them to the
> size of the seeds Iplant in the pots, raised beds, and furrows, to the
> bushes, saplings and mature trees.   The amount of power my cell-phone
> wants to stay connected to the amount my laptop wants to play videos,
> the amount my solar heat needs to circulate hot air from collector to
> rock-bed, to what my well requires to deliver garden-scale water, to
> what my Chevy Volt wants to take me on a round trip to the nearest town.
>   These are all orders-of-magnitude apart , while their utility is
> roughly inversely scaled for some purposes.


--
☣ uǝlƃ

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[David Eric Smith]

Nick, hi,

Ah, the sieve of my head.  As in my technical work, I am browsing a variety of stuff, remembering conclusions I find interesting, but not keeping good track of sources.  Here is what I can provide off-the-cuff, and a tiny bit on searching.

In Asia, the four very good responses have been Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and S. Korea.  One can see statistics on their histories — thus outcomes but without explanations of methods — at both of 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

which I realize have been offered on FRIAM on several occasions.

Here is one article that overlaps with content I know I have read, although at relatively shallow descriptive depth:

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/can-us-emulate-asias-coronavirus-response

I find this and other similar links by doing a google search on the string

"coronavirus responses taiwan singapore hong kong s. korea"

Although S. Korea had bad case growth early, which showed up as large numbers thoroughout the course, a lot of that seems to have been because they had this huge burst of early cases from the megachurch in Daegu, before they realized it was in the country.  Probably also a fair number of travel-related spread too, though I haven’t seen a statistical analysis pertinent to that question.  

I seem to remember having read, somewhere, that there was informal gossip in the Chinese-language social mediasphere, about the novel pneumonia during the early weeks of December when China was still trying to squelch it.  Because the Singaporeans have access to that and are Chinese readers, they spotted right away that there was a likely problem, and I think I recall that they were the first to put a travel ban in place from China, back in the very earliest weeks when such a ban actually did make a significant dent in cases coming in through the border.  I have always wondered what the US state department under Obama, which of course must have access to data-sharing with speakers of every major language world-wide, would have done if their Chinese-language contacts had sent word that there was a potential major hazard.  We would not have had a way to know in real-time, but years later somebody would have written a memoir telling what warnings were circulating within the government at what times.

I think.I saw an NYT article perhaps last week or the week before on various Asian enforcement responses.  I seem to remember something about a $30k fine to a Taiwanese man who skipped quarantine and went to a bar, and something about Singaporean police going to pick up a minor who skipped quarantine and went somewhere.  In the same article, was it Singapore that used ankle bracelets to track quarantinees?  There have also been numerous reports about social media apps requiring reporting of people’s conditions, ne more than one of those countries.  Some commenter on one of the NYT articles, a US expat in Korea, described the follow-up he has experienced as a mandatory-quarantined traveler.  It sounded typically Korean-official: polite, no-nonsense, and 100%-committed. 

In the West, Iceland has probably been best at case tracking and very early quarantine (so that many who develop symptoms are already quarantined before they do); I think I saw an article on pbs on that within the last week, because I remember listening to the distinctiveness of the Icelanders’ accent versus those of Norwegians, Swedes, or Danes.  I am glad Glen found the link on German effectiveness; there have also been two articles (perhaps two slightly updated versions with overlapping content) on the NYT.  I too had wondered.  Although Germany has not been good at limiting cases, in part because they had a huge burst of younger infected skiers from Austria or Italy, they have been excellent at limiting mortality.  I think not quite as low as S. Korea, but within the statistical estimation errors of how many asymptomatic infecteds there are, and also within variations in age structure of those who got sick.

Anyway, sorry I can’t send a better reference list, but there are probably several useful articles on the google search response above.

Be well,

Eric

On Apr 9, 2020, at 3:20 AM, <[hidden email]> <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi, Eric 

 

Taiwan BETTER than China!?  That’s something, isn’t it?  Isn’t there some real hope in that? 

 

Where do I go to learn in detail about Taiwan’s response. 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:53 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places?  

 

I would bet very high odds that is not the case.

 

They have probably greatly reduced the caseload.  Friends there say they are rebuilding daily activities (up in Beijing, which was not by far the hardest hit) slowly, carefully, and incrementally.  But not by any stretch is life normal, or expected to revert to normal in any foreseeable future.

 

There was an NYT piece a few days ago saying that the intelligence dept. is trying to get accurate case numbers because they don’t believe the central government is reporting either honestly or accurately.  That seems a decent bet.  And to the extent that this info is not coming from trump stooges at the top, but being leaked from somewhere in the middle ranks, it is probably coming from committed professionals who are concerned with what is true.

 

My guess is that the forensics of what is going on in China will take a long time to perform, and probably important information will be suppressed until it can be lost forever.  So for some of it ignoramus et ignoramibus.

 

All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective.  Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.

 

Eric

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[David Eric Smith]

Also maybe of interest, and with more detail, from JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=content-shareicons&utm_content=article_engagement&utm_medium=social&utm_term=030620#.XmISXNOJbgY.twitter

This was linked in a financial times article here from the google search string I mentioned earlier.

E

On Apr 9, 2020, at 3:20 AM, <[hidden email]> <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi, Eric 

 

Taiwan BETTER than China!?  That’s something, isn’t it?  Isn’t there some real hope in that? 

 

Where do I go to learn in detail about Taiwan’s response. 

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Tuesday, April 7, 2020 11:53 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] RedState/BlueState OneState/TwoState

 

Has china actually eliminated the virus from the population and the are merely putting out sparks that have blown in from other places?  

 

I would bet very high odds that is not the case.

 

They have probably greatly reduced the caseload.  Friends there say they are rebuilding daily activities (up in Beijing, which was not by far the hardest hit) slowly, carefully, and incrementally.  But not by any stretch is life normal, or expected to revert to normal in any foreseeable future.

 

There was an NYT piece a few days ago saying that the intelligence dept. is trying to get accurate case numbers because they don’t believe the central government is reporting either honestly or accurately.  That seems a decent bet.  And to the extent that this info is not coming from trump stooges at the top, but being leaked from somewhere in the middle ranks, it is probably coming from committed professionals who are concerned with what is true.

 

My guess is that the forensics of what is going on in China will take a long time to perform, and probably important information will be suppressed until it can be lost forever.  So for some of it ignoramus et ignoramibus.

 

All that said, the clamp-down was impressive, and probably fairly effective.  Not a gold standard like Taiwan, but better than any of the major countries in the west, and with a much larger population.

 

Eric

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

[jon zingale]

D.E Smith,

I have no idea what feed the morlocks eloi

refers to, but I do love an easter egg, so thanks!

Jonathan Zingale

..-. . . -.. / - .... . / -- --- .-. .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... / . .-.. --- ..
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/