Pandemic Over!
Locked
Pandemic Over!
 
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June 15 has come and gone... and perhaps it is worth stopping to see if the "Pandemic is Over"... of course, by the stated definition, perhaps there never was a Pandemic, and Data and Science(tm) are prone to misrepresentation and use. However... This graphic is fascinating. Thank you Merle! The live/interactive version has a very visually compelling
impact when you run the time-slider from January 1 to the end of
May. Since it is a common myth that "COVID19 is no worse than the
seasonal influenza", I thought I'd check to see when the number of
deaths from one caught up with the other. It went past me the first time that the date of that "overtake"
was April Fools day. Of course, my conspiracy homunculus (one of
many tuned to those channels), jumped right up and called this an
"easter egg" put there by George Soros-funded liberal
pinko-flagwaver data scientists. A useful comparison for a
related homunculus might be to compare that day to the day of the
year the average taxpayer quits working for uncle Sam and gets
down to the business for "working for mysself, gall-durnit!". I
think that is a tough day to estimate given how many were out of
work, on unemployment, getting stimulus checks, paid by PPP
loan/grants by their small business employers, etc. I'm betting
that by the first stimulus check a huge number of people had been
paid more for the year than they paid in?!
From RT.LIVE on June 20
Looks our states are *precisely* balanced between those whose COVID19 transmission rate is >1.0 and those <1.0 Now Mid April:
Here is where we started (April) with about 1/4 of the states
below 1.0. By some measure half the states are better off now
than in the early days of the Pandemic.
But over a month into the lockdown (mid April) we had only 7
(1/7th-ish) states with an Ro>1.0, and all of those under 1.2
(8 infecteds leads to 9 new infecteds). The hammer worked? Admittedly, *some* of these were simply "late to enter the race"... so *they* are just hitting their stride a month or so after the states with big cities fed by multiple international airports. It is interesting (perhaps, to some) to drill down into the individual states Ro Curves and see how they relate to shutdown/open-up dates. Some states like NM seem to have done well implementing *both* the hammer AND the dance... https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
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Yeah, I think we (Thurston) are doing about as well as Santa Fe. (See attached: I don't know if you're in SF county or not.) What tickles me is that the non-maskers think wearing a mask is about protecting yourself when it's really about protecting those around you (by analogy cf our seat belt and ATGATT argument). I've often argued that we should *encourage* nutjobs to get swastika face tattoos and put confederate flags on their trucks so that we KNOW who the idiots are. The (lack of a) mask works, too. When walking into Fred Meyer, I feel almost exactly like I feel when I go to a gun and knife show.
My mom's in a particularly bad situation. She recently broke another hip and a rib by falling out of bed. She thinks COVID-19 is a *storm* and we all have to stay in our rooms because we might die in the storm. At one point her story changed. She talked about being stung by a *bug* and the bug was flying toward another resident (she's in assisted living, but agumented with more EoL-type care -- she can't be moved to a nursing home at the moment) so she "ran" after the bug and swatted it down, saving the other resident from being infected. In micro, it's funny. And she has fun telling the story. So that's good. In macro, it's horrible because deep down, I don't think she has any idea what's happening. I'm sure she and the others in her facility agree the pandemic's NOT over. On 6/22/20 9:06 PM, Steve Smith wrote: > Well, obviously I wasn't addressing Dave's original prediction because > *I think* by his definitions, he would claim there never really *was* a > pandemic, *just* a media/liberal over-reaction to a novel virus that had > jumped species to humans to travel with us worldwide and whose > transmission and mortality rates are (very) arguably "no worse than > influenza" and by now the hysteria would have (maybe?) subdued enough > and morphed into post-hoc explanations why it "wasn't a problem anymore"? > > From my perspective, the Pandemic-response (government, retail and > public) in NM has moved into a new phase. Overall NM's statistics > suggest we are doing fairly well here. Mary and I have worked into > going to (outdoor) dining establishments fairly regularly and find A) > the staff handles things very well; B) the other customers handle things > very well; C) the demand for these seats/tables is low enough that the > risk feels very low. It is hard to tell if these establishments are > doing enough business to stay out of the red, but perhaps with PPP > support they *are* making it work. I tip heavily and try to keep my > aerosolized body fluids close. > > When things started to open up here nearly a month ago, I found a *lot* > of people to bust out of their bubble a little too exuberently for my > taste, and a few times (going into big-box hardware for items I couldn't > get at my small-box alternative) I turned around and went home to come > back later... since then, mask wearing is now required for entry and > while I do see others pull their masks down when nobody is near, at > least they aren't charging through groups of people maskless like they > were early on in the re-open. > > I can't say by *any measure* that the Pandemic is over... unless of > course, as I opened the post... if I declare the conditions to be a > Pandemic were *never* real... which seems pretty hard to support. I > feel like my level of exposure has increased from nil to tiny with my > expanded public activity. But I would probably not go visit my 91 year > old mother without doing a 2 week self-isolation first. Her assisted > living (in AZ) has been locked down hard since the early days.... the > larger complex is senior living community (most over 65) but her > "quadrangle" are all 80+ and have some kind of "special needs" (e.g. > help with a shower or with medicine) but far from Nursing home care > (though there is an RN on staff). My sister lives in Tucson as well and > while she could *insist* on visiting inside the locked gates, it is > highly discouraged and it appears all of the other residents follow a > similar level of care. So far they've had no cases in the whole > facility (600 residents?) which suggests they are doing "the right > things". While I know I could (practically/legally) visit her in her > apartment (or take her out for the day) I'd feel criminally bad if I > handed her this virus, and more critically, injected it into her > "enclave" and somebody(s) died. ☣ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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