Our dilemma with global warming etc.

[Robert J. Cordingley]

Perhaps Phil Henshaw has been warning us that we humans are really in a
'pulse eruption' type of outbreak (cf his bump curve) as described here:

    http://www.ento.vt.edu/~sharov/PopEcol/lec13/classif.html

The job then is to determine when will the collapse come and what
factors might mitigate our future?

Robert Cordingley.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20070502/36802c7d/attachment.html 

[Marcus G. Daniels]

Robert Cordingley wrote:
> Perhaps Phil Henshaw has been warning us that we humans are really in
> a 'pulse eruption' type of outbreak (cf his bump curve) as described here:
>
>     http://www.ento.vt.edu/~sharov/PopEcol/lec13/classif.html 
> <http://www.ento.vt.edu/%7Esharov/PopEcol/lec13/classif.html>
>
> The job then is to determine when will the collapse come and what
> factors might mitigate our future?
This is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
done.  World economic scenarios are modeled per:

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/092.htm

..yielding these estimates for temperature change.

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/slides/large/02.18.jpg

[Robert J. Cordingley]

Pimple, bumps on curves, pulse eruptions... I eventually found these
charts that were part of a presentation given by an energy consultant at
the 2006 Energy Technology Venture Capital Conference:





In the context of CO2 emissions, I guess the charts say we have already
put half the carbon in the atmosphere from oil that we can.  The
problems will be coal and then how to preserve the declining oil supply
as a feedstock for chemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, etc.,
etc. that we use everyday.  (Imagine taking plastics out of the health
care infrastructure and see what's left.)  We'll have to mine the city
dump for feedstock - an energy intensive activity I'm sure.

I found too much uncertainty and vagaries in the IPCC report, by the
way, to think it can be really useful - but I didn't study it in depth.  
The variation in population growth projections was inconclusive, too
disparate and may be one of them looked like a "pulse eruption" - lots
more work to be done.

I wonder how well oil production correlates with human population and
what the time delay component is.

Robert Cordingley


Marcus G. Daniels wrote:

> Robert Cordingley wrote:
>  
>> Perhaps Phil Henshaw has been warning us that we humans are really in
>> a 'pulse eruption' type of outbreak (cf his bump curve) as described here:
>>
>>     http://www.ento.vt.edu/~sharov/PopEcol/lec13/classif.html 
>> <http://www.ento.vt.edu/%7Esharov/PopEcol/lec13/classif.html>
>>
>> The job then is to determine when will the collapse come and what
>> factors might mitigate our future?
>>    
> This is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
> done.  World economic scenarios are modeled per:
>
> http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/092.htm
>
> ..yielding these estimates for temperature change.
>
> http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/slides/large/02.18.jpg
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
>  

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20070504/c5723350/attachment.html 
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: moz-screenshot.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 34303 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20070504/c5723350/attachment.jpg 
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: moz-screenshot-1.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 33600 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20070504/c5723350/attachment-0001.jpg