One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
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One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
 
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Thanks to Doug for reminding us of the Iowa Markets...
I would LOVE to see the Red team take it in the shorts to the tune of 70/30 or better yet 80/20... and the possibility that some *other* factionization would result, or better yet, room for third and fourth (I *like* the Green platform and I *like* much of the Libertarian platform). Not without runoffs or similar though.  (1984 Presidential electoral college map). Could a landslide for the progressives as big as that for the conservatives in 1984 change the face of politics in the US? It didn't in 1984. Not for long really. Unless it caused a different axis of factionation? Could right to choose refer to guns, marital partners and recreational drugs as well as abortions (along with embracing the acute responsibilities that come with such extreme topics)? Could personal responsibility refer to each of social, environmental and fiscal? Could smaller government be about streamlining things *best* done by government rather than outsourcing everything to bloated monopolistic corporations and trusts of corporations (e.g. halliburton/bechtel/blackwater, drug companies, insurance companies, ???). Probably not, but hope springs infernal! - Steve
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
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Another couple of observations on the latest WTA graph, attached.
--Doug
On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 3:03 PM, Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Doug Roberts [hidden email] [hidden email] ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
ElectionTrends.png (69K)
Re: One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
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The market for congressional control is going strongly toward RepublicanHouseDemocraticSenate (RH_DS).
Anyone remember what happened in mid-September? -- rec -- ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
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In reply to this post by Douglas Roberts-2
Are we to interpret that the market confidence
in Obama's winning took a nosedive after he declined Romney's
invitation to a pissing contest on television at the first
debate?
And that the market got more confident in him after he toured disaster states on the East Coast? Or less confident in a climate-change-denier after the first-person experience of extreme weather (whether caused by climate change or not)? The arrows represent correlations... what are the implied causations? What is the "arrow of choice" for June 2012? When it was clear Romney was the Republican's candidate? ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
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Causation conclusions from the presented observations would have to be backed by extensive non-partisan analysis. I, of course, have formed my own opinions regarding the motivating causation behind the two indicated major inflection changes in the graph.
--Doug
On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 3:21 PM, Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
Doug Roberts [hidden email] [hidden email] ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
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In reply to this post by Roger Critchlow-2
Found an answer to my question: Mitt's 47% deadbeats secret video is datelined Sept 17 on Mother Jones.
The price of RH_DS was 0.244 on the 17th, and 0.724 on the 28th. The price of RH_RS was 0.450 on the 17th, and 0.065 on the 28th.
That's a pretty astonishing reversal in Senate expectations from a Presidential candidate event. -- rec --
On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 3:16 PM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote: The market for congressional control is going strongly toward RepublicanHouseDemocraticSenate (RH_DS). ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
Re: One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State
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Hmm, Nate Silver's trend lines for senate control reversed on August 19, the day that Todd Akin made his "legitimate rape" remarks. On that day the Republicans had a 61.5% chance of winning a senate majority and it's been all down hill for them since then. The odds were 50% a week later. By the 17th of September Silver gave the Democrats a 70.1% chance of winning the senate. So maybe the punters on the Iowa market were just waking up late.
I wonder what sort of "teachable moment" will arise when Nate Silver correctly calls 49 or 48 states in this election. Will the Republicans grudgingly become believers in statistical meta-analysis? Or will they try to pass legislation outlawing it? -- rec -- On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 10:59 PM, Roger Critchlow <[hidden email]> wrote: Found an answer to my question: Mitt's 47% deadbeats secret video is datelined Sept 17 on Mother Jones. ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org |
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