Modeling the Middle East?

[Carver Tate]

Do they really think this is possible?  How accurate do you all think this
could possibly be?

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/pentagon-wants.html

- Carver


--
"There are no passengers on spaceship earth. We are all crew." - Marshall
McLuhan

"The whole reason why Duncan's work upsets people is that he demonstrates
that the world is complex, that it's not that easy." - Joe Pilotta speaking
about Duncan Watts
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[Marcus G. Daniels]

Carver Tate wrote:
> Do they really think this is possible?  How accurate do you all think
> this could possibly be?
>
> http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/pentagon-wants.html
One way to look at it is that such models provide rigor in encoding
intelligence -- situational awareness.

Even if all you get is a geographical database of where resources are,
what major classes of relevant actors are, and there interconnections,
that can be useful by itself.  It's just that an agent model also gets
you the possibility of testing longer-term and indirect consequences of
possible actions in the virtual world.   They may turn out be poor
predictions, but if that happens you can see if it is feasible to
improve the model, or just decide not to try to make certain sorts of
prediction.

Marcus

[Phil Henshaw-2]

or... you could use such a model to do the ultimate unthinkable thing of
helping you study the physical world and its (mis)behavioral
differences... :-)


Phil Henshaw                       ????.?? ? `?.????
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interesting in what they say" --

> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com
> [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On Behalf Of Marcus G. Daniels
> Sent: Monday, February 11, 2008 6:33 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Modeling the Middle East?
>
>
> Carver Tate wrote:
> > Do they really think this is possible?  How accurate do you
> all think
> > this could possibly be?
> >
> > http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/pentagon-wants.html
> One way to look at it is that such models provide rigor in encoding
> intelligence -- situational awareness.
>
> Even if all you get is a geographical database of where
> resources are,
> what major classes of relevant actors are, and there
> interconnections,
> that can be useful by itself.  It's just that an agent model
> also gets
> you the possibility of testing longer-term and indirect
> consequences of
> possible actions in the virtual world.   They may turn out be poor
> predictions, but if that happens you can see if it is feasible to
> improve the model, or just decide not to try to make certain sorts of
> prediction.
>
> Marcus
>
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