Friam

Miller, miller moths everywhere...

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jon zingale

Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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Merle Lefkoff-2

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

thompnickson2

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

Angel Edward

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

In the 25 years we lived in ABQ,, we had more frequent invasions than 19 or 20 years apart. If you believe it depends on prime numbers, how about 5 or 7? Also the invasions were much more dense that what we’ve seen here. We’d get up in the morning and hundreds would be jammed under the front door and in the car vents.

__________

Ed Angel

Founding Director, Art, Research, Technology and Science Laboratory (ARTS Lab)
Professor Emeritus of Computer Science, University of New Mexico

1017 Sierra Pinon
Santa Fe, NM 87501
505-984-0136 (home) [hidden email]
505-453-4944 (cell) http://www.cs.unm.edu/~angel

On May 19, 2020, at 8:05 AM, <[hidden email]> <[hidden email]> wrote:

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:
Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Steve Smith

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

Nick -

I *like* this kind of anecdotal/vernacular science. I think Glen might refer to these stories/ideas as "just so stories" because they seem to be post-hoc fitting of simple yet in some sense apt models to anecdotal data gathered ad-hoc but widely. I think I understand (and agree) with his (implied) judgment of them as being "real science" but they smack of something more than "wishful thinking", maybe "whimsical thinking"? And a sort of proto-science. Or a collective form of knowledge/wisdom formation which lacks the formal rigor of modern science. Related to what Dave appeals to with us perhaps in Jung and other ideas of collective consciousness. A step away from believing that the cosmos and everyday life are ordered by a (the) angry/benevolent god(esses) toward believing something perhaps equally absurd, that everything is ordered by mathematics.

My father was second-generation college educated... with a BS in biology preparing him for an advanced degree in Forestry (soil and range science), and his parents before him both held BS degrees in Geology. But they were all still rooted in a style of understanding the world (minerals, plants and animals, and people) which was roughly animistic... they all still lived physically close to the earth and virtually all of their relatives were still living in the hills and hollers of Appalachia. This could easily explain why I "like" the anecdotal/vernacular and distrust the *over* application of mathematics.

I've rattled on before about the *explanatory* power of models and the hypotheses they embody vs *predictive* or *communicative* or *descriptive* or even *inspirational*. These are not orthogonal, but I think still useful... a "descriptive" model of the utlity/power of scientific thinking/modeling?

- Steve

FWIW... re: Jon's report on their nutritive value, my young chickens (6 weeks today?) have been foraging in our courtyard for about a week during the day. At first they showed significant interest in the flies that would occasion their feeder, but seemed to learn quickly that they were not fast enough to catch them, and soon discovered the myriad ground insects that they could find by pecking and scratching. I was sitting on a low wall next to a couple of them... they seem to like the company of humans and will come close and do their foraging near me, even though I rarely hand feed them. I looked down and one was swallowing a very large grey-brown object which I am now sure was a miller. The miller moth infestation/epidemic/peak at my house (near the Rio Grande) seems to have lagged that of the one in Santa Fe and even just up the Pojoaque Valley where people have been reporting the deluge for weeks. Ours just started a few days ago.

Speaking of anecdotal and just-so science stories. I find it fascinating to note that these birds, supposedly not THAT removed from their wild ancestors are constructed from a single *large enough to eat for breakfast* egg-cell in about 20 days and emerge almost fully able to survive alone (though they benefit from the warmth and protection and guidance of a mother hen, or some people with a heat-lamp and some agri-industrially formulated food and our own curiosity). And then, not too much later, they begin to "shed an egg" nearly daily (if you keep taking them away) which if fertilized, would repeat the construction, growth process right in front of my eyes. Aside from their daily egg-gift, I look forward to their help in insect control in my garden.... I can tolerate many pests in the garden but some years we get grasshoppers and squash bugs, each who can decimate a crop.

I've always enjoyed watching the Sphynx/Hummingbird moths around the homestead, but did not know their larval form was the "dreaded" tomato worm. Last year, I was surprised to see that along with my tomatoes, they had discovered the volunteer datura that come up here and there around the property and two or three had ganged up on one plant and stripped it bare of leaves. I wondered at how their metabolism handled the kind of alkaloids that humans (and cattle?) experience as "loco weed". The datura, with it's heavily cholorphylled and thick stems seemed to survive just fine and put out a fresh bounty of (smaller?) leaves and returned to it's course of producing flowers to be pollinated by (also the sphynx?) and then a seedpod to lead to this year's surprise sprouts?!

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

thompnickson2

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Steve,

Re stories, that’s probably why I was drawn to Darwinism. Every Darwinian explanation, no matter how sophisticated, is a story, a historical narrative, arising from plausible suppositions about the way things were. Last time I read the literature, the mitochondrial data on humans suggested that we arose from a single, smallish, group in southern Africa. If that’s not an idiographic (as opposed to nomothetic) account, I don’t know what is.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 9:04 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick -

- Steve

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:
Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

Prof David West

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick is a big fan of scientific story - at least "popular science" conveyed with stories - ala "Private Lives of Garden Birds" by Calvin Simonds.

davew

On Tue, May 19, 2020, at 10:13 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

Steve,

Re stories, that’s probably why I was drawn to Darwinism. Every Darwinian explanation, no matter how sophisticated, is a story, a historical narrative, arising from plausible suppositions about the way things were. Last time I read the literature, the mitochondrial data on humans suggested that we arose from a single, smallish, group in southern Africa. If that’s not an idiographic (as opposed to nomothetic) account, I don’t know what is.

Nick
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith
Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 9:04 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick -
I *like* this kind of anecdotal/vernacular science.   I think Glen might refer to these stories/ideas as "just so stories" because they seem to be post-hoc fitting of simple yet in some sense apt models to anecdotal data gathered ad-hoc but widely.    I think I understand (and agree) with his (implied) judgment of them as being "real science" but they smack of something more than "wishful thinking", maybe "whimsical thinking"? And a sort of proto-science. Or a collective form of knowledge/wisdom formation which lacks the formal rigor of modern science. Related to what Dave appeals to with us perhaps in Jung and other ideas of collective consciousness. A step away from believing that the cosmos and everyday life are ordered by a (the) angry/benevolent god(esses) toward believing something perhaps equally absurd, that everything is ordered by mathematics.
My father was second-generation college educated... with a BS in biology preparing him for an advanced degree in Forestry (soil and range science), and his parents before him both held BS degrees in Geology.   But they were all still rooted in a style of understanding the world (minerals, plants and animals, and people) which was roughly animistic... they all still lived physically close to the earth and virtually all of their relatives were still living in the hills and hollers of Appalachia. This could easily explain why I "like" the anecdotal/vernacular and distrust the *over* application of mathematics.
I've rattled on before about the *explanatory* power of models and the hypotheses they embody vs *predictive* or *communicative* or *descriptive* or even *inspirational*.   These are not orthogonal, but I think still useful... a "descriptive" model of the utlity/power of scientific thinking/modeling?
- Steve
FWIW... re: Jon's report on their nutritive value, my young chickens (6 weeks today?) have been foraging in our courtyard for about a week during the day.   At first they showed significant interest in the flies that would occasion their feeder, but seemed to learn quickly that they were not fast enough to catch them, and soon discovered the myriad ground insects that they could find by pecking and scratching.   I was sitting on a low wall next to a couple of them... they seem to like the company of humans and will come close and do their foraging near me, even though I rarely hand feed them.   I looked down and one was swallowing a very large grey-brown object which I am now sure was a miller. The miller moth infestation/epidemic/peak at my house (near the Rio Grande) seems to have lagged that of the one in Santa Fe and even just up the Pojoaque Valley where people have been reporting the deluge for weeks.   Ours just started a few days ago.
Speaking of anecdotal and just-so science stories.   I find it fascinating to note that these birds, supposedly not THAT removed from their wild ancestors are constructed from a single *large enough to eat for breakfast* egg-cell in about 20 days and emerge almost fully able to survive alone (though they benefit from the warmth and protection and guidance of a mother hen, or some people with a heat-lamp and some agri-industrially formulated food and our own curiosity). And then, not too much later, they begin to "shed an egg" nearly daily (if you keep taking them away) which if fertilized, would repeat the construction, growth process right in front of my eyes.   Aside from their daily egg-gift, I look forward to their help in insect control in my garden.... I can tolerate many pests in the garden but some years we get grasshoppers and squash bugs, each who can decimate a crop.
I've always enjoyed watching the Sphynx/Hummingbird moths around the homestead, but did not know their larval form was the "dreaded" tomato worm.   Last year, I was surprised to see that along with my tomatoes, they had discovered the volunteer datura that come up here and there around the property and two or three had ganged up on one plant and stripped it bare of leaves.    I wondered at how their metabolism handled the kind of alkaloids that humans (and cattle?) experience as "loco weed". The datura, with it's heavily cholorphylled and thick stems seemed to survive just fine and put out a fresh bounty of (smaller?) leaves and returned to it's course of producing flowers to be pollinated by (also the sphynx?) and then a seedpod to lead to this year's surprise sprouts?!
Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:
Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Oh you mean an ODE.. <ducks/>

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 at 9:30 AM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick is a big fan of scientific story - at least "popular science" conveyed with stories - ala "Private Lives of Garden Birds" by Calvin Simonds.

davew

On Tue, May 19, 2020, at 10:13 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

Steve,

Re stories, that’s probably why I was drawn to Darwinism. Every Darwinian explanation, no matter how sophisticated, is a story, a historical narrative, arising from plausible suppositions about the way things were. Last time I read the literature, the mitochondrial data on humans suggested that we arose from a single, smallish, group in southern Africa. If that’s not an idiographic (as opposed to nomothetic) account, I don’t know what is.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith

Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 9:04 AM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick -

I *like* this kind of anecdotal/vernacular science.   I think Glen might refer to these stories/ideas as "just so stories" because they seem to be post-hoc fitting of simple yet in some sense apt models to anecdotal data gathered ad-hoc but widely.    I think I understand (and agree) with his (implied) judgment of them as being "real science" but they smack of something more than "wishful thinking", maybe "whimsical thinking"? And a sort of proto-science. Or a collective form of knowledge/wisdom formation which lacks the formal rigor of modern science. Related to what Dave appeals to with us perhaps in Jung and other ideas of collective consciousness. A step away from believing that the cosmos and everyday life are ordered by a (the) angry/benevolent god(esses) toward believing something perhaps equally absurd, that everything is ordered by mathematics.

My father was second-generation college educated... with a BS in biology preparing him for an advanced degree in Forestry (soil and range science), and his parents before him both held BS degrees in Geology.   But they were all still rooted in a style of understanding the world (minerals, plants and animals, and people) which was roughly animistic... they all still lived physically close to the earth and virtually all of their relatives were still living in the hills and hollers of Appalachia. This could easily explain why I "like" the anecdotal/vernacular and distrust the *over* application of mathematics.

I've rattled on before about the *explanatory* power of models and the hypotheses they embody vs *predictive* or *communicative* or *descriptive* or even *inspirational*.   These are not orthogonal, but I think still useful... a "descriptive" model of the utlity/power of scientific thinking/modeling?

- Steve

FWIW... re: Jon's report on their nutritive value, my young chickens (6 weeks today?) have been foraging in our courtyard for about a week during the day.   At first they showed significant interest in the flies that would occasion their feeder, but seemed to learn quickly that they were not fast enough to catch them, and soon discovered the myriad ground insects that they could find by pecking and scratching.   I was sitting on a low wall next to a couple of them... they seem to like the company of humans and will come close and do their foraging near me, even though I rarely hand feed them.   I looked down and one was swallowing a very large grey-brown object which I am now sure was a miller. The miller moth infestation/epidemic/peak at my house (near the Rio Grande) seems to have lagged that of the one in Santa Fe and even just up the Pojoaque Valley where people have been reporting the deluge for weeks.   Ours just started a few days ago.

Speaking of anecdotal and just-so science stories.   I find it fascinating to note that these birds, supposedly not THAT removed from their wild ancestors are constructed from a single *large enough to eat for breakfast* egg-cell in about 20 days and emerge almost fully able to survive alone (though they benefit from the warmth and protection and guidance of a mother hen, or some people with a heat-lamp and some agri-industrially formulated food and our own curiosity). And then, not too much later, they begin to "shed an egg" nearly daily (if you keep taking them away) which if fertilized, would repeat the construction, growth process right in front of my eyes.   Aside from their daily egg-gift, I look forward to their help in insect control in my garden.... I can tolerate many pests in the garden but some years we get grasshoppers and squash bugs, each who can decimate a crop.

I've always enjoyed watching the Sphynx/Hummingbird moths around the homestead, but did not know their larval form was the "dreaded" tomato worm.   Last year, I was surprised to see that along with my tomatoes, they had discovered the volunteer datura that come up here and there around the property and two or three had ganged up on one plant and stripped it bare of leaves.    I wondered at how their metabolism handled the kind of alkaloids that humans (and cattle?) experience as "loco weed". The datura, with it's heavily cholorphylled and thick stems seemed to survive just fine and put out a fresh bounty of (smaller?) leaves and returned to it's course of producing flowers to be pollinated by (also the sphynx?) and then a seedpod to lead to this year's surprise sprouts?!

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff

Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

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--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.

President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy

emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]

mobile: (303) 859-5609

skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

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-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

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cody dooderson

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

The moths seem to have vanished from my house in Albuquerque. Yesterday they covered every outdoor surface, and now I can't even find a corpse of one. Did they all end up in Pojoaque getting nibbled on by chickens?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 19, 2020 at 10:31 AM Marcus Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:

Oh you mean an ODE..   <ducks/>

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 at 9:30 AM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick is a big fan of scientific story - at least "popular science" conveyed with stories - ala "Private Lives of Garden Birds" by Calvin Simonds.

davew

On Tue, May 19, 2020, at 10:13 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

Steve,

Re stories, that’s probably why I was drawn to Darwinism. Every Darwinian explanation, no matter how sophisticated, is a story, a historical narrative, arising from plausible suppositions about the way things were. Last time I read the literature, the mitochondrial data on humans suggested that we arose from a single, smallish, group in southern Africa. If that’s not an idiographic (as opposed to nomothetic) account, I don’t know what is.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith

Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 9:04 AM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick -

I *like* this kind of anecdotal/vernacular science.   I think Glen might refer to these stories/ideas as "just so stories" because they seem to be post-hoc fitting of simple yet in some sense apt models to anecdotal data gathered ad-hoc but widely.    I think I understand (and agree) with his (implied) judgment of them as being "real science" but they smack of something more than "wishful thinking", maybe "whimsical thinking"? And a sort of proto-science. Or a collective form of knowledge/wisdom formation which lacks the formal rigor of modern science. Related to what Dave appeals to with us perhaps in Jung and other ideas of collective consciousness. A step away from believing that the cosmos and everyday life are ordered by a (the) angry/benevolent god(esses) toward believing something perhaps equally absurd, that everything is ordered by mathematics.

My father was second-generation college educated... with a BS in biology preparing him for an advanced degree in Forestry (soil and range science), and his parents before him both held BS degrees in Geology.   But they were all still rooted in a style of understanding the world (minerals, plants and animals, and people) which was roughly animistic... they all still lived physically close to the earth and virtually all of their relatives were still living in the hills and hollers of Appalachia. This could easily explain why I "like" the anecdotal/vernacular and distrust the *over* application of mathematics.

I've rattled on before about the *explanatory* power of models and the hypotheses they embody vs *predictive* or *communicative* or *descriptive* or even *inspirational*.   These are not orthogonal, but I think still useful... a "descriptive" model of the utlity/power of scientific thinking/modeling?

- Steve

FWIW... re: Jon's report on their nutritive value, my young chickens (6 weeks today?) have been foraging in our courtyard for about a week during the day.   At first they showed significant interest in the flies that would occasion their feeder, but seemed to learn quickly that they were not fast enough to catch them, and soon discovered the myriad ground insects that they could find by pecking and scratching.   I was sitting on a low wall next to a couple of them... they seem to like the company of humans and will come close and do their foraging near me, even though I rarely hand feed them.   I looked down and one was swallowing a very large grey-brown object which I am now sure was a miller. The miller moth infestation/epidemic/peak at my house (near the Rio Grande) seems to have lagged that of the one in Santa Fe and even just up the Pojoaque Valley where people have been reporting the deluge for weeks.   Ours just started a few days ago.

Speaking of anecdotal and just-so science stories.   I find it fascinating to note that these birds, supposedly not THAT removed from their wild ancestors are constructed from a single *large enough to eat for breakfast* egg-cell in about 20 days and emerge almost fully able to survive alone (though they benefit from the warmth and protection and guidance of a mother hen, or some people with a heat-lamp and some agri-industrially formulated food and our own curiosity). And then, not too much later, they begin to "shed an egg" nearly daily (if you keep taking them away) which if fertilized, would repeat the construction, growth process right in front of my eyes.   Aside from their daily egg-gift, I look forward to their help in insect control in my garden.... I can tolerate many pests in the garden but some years we get grasshoppers and squash bugs, each who can decimate a crop.

I've always enjoyed watching the Sphynx/Hummingbird moths around the homestead, but did not know their larval form was the "dreaded" tomato worm.   Last year, I was surprised to see that along with my tomatoes, they had discovered the volunteer datura that come up here and there around the property and two or three had ganged up on one plant and stripped it bare of leaves.    I wondered at how their metabolism handled the kind of alkaloids that humans (and cattle?) experience as "loco weed". The datura, with it's heavily cholorphylled and thick stems seemed to survive just fine and put out a fresh bounty of (smaller?) leaves and returned to it's course of producing flowers to be pollinated by (also the sphynx?) and then a seedpod to lead to this year's surprise sprouts?!

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff

Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam

un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.

President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy

emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]

mobile: (303) 859-5609

skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam

un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

Steve Smith

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

In reply to this post by Marcus G. Daniels

Oh you mean an ODE.. <ducks/>

One of my favorite poetic forms IS the "ode". In particular Neruda's "Ode to Common Things" and I DO think that many of what Nick is calling "ideographic" stories as acting somewhat as an ode of this type. On the other hand, the ODE of calculus is not as apt as a PDE for gesturing at the inner-relations between sub-elements of a story or suite of stories being descriptive (such as a small band of (modern?) hominids who somehow manage to be the only ones to push their genes forward)? Systems Dynamics models are coupled collections of ODEs and capture much of what I think these types of stories capture: the relations between things and their *behaviour*, each in terms of the other(s).

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 at 9:30 AM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick is a big fan of scientific story - at least "popular science" conveyed with stories - ala "Private Lives of Garden Birds" by Calvin Simonds.

davew

On Tue, May 19, 2020, at 10:13 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

Steve,

Re stories, that’s probably why I was drawn to Darwinism. Every Darwinian explanation, no matter how sophisticated, is a story, a historical narrative, arising from plausible suppositions about the way things were. Last time I read the literature, the mitochondrial data on humans suggested that we arose from a single, smallish, group in southern Africa. If that’s not an idiographic (as opposed to nomothetic) account, I don’t know what is.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steve Smith

Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 9:04 AM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick -

I *like* this kind of anecdotal/vernacular science.   I think Glen might refer to these stories/ideas as "just so stories" because they seem to be post-hoc fitting of simple yet in some sense apt models to anecdotal data gathered ad-hoc but widely.    I think I understand (and agree) with his (implied) judgment of them as being "real science" but they smack of something more than "wishful thinking", maybe "whimsical thinking"? And a sort of proto-science. Or a collective form of knowledge/wisdom formation which lacks the formal rigor of modern science. Related to what Dave appeals to with us perhaps in Jung and other ideas of collective consciousness. A step away from believing that the cosmos and everyday life are ordered by a (the) angry/benevolent god(esses) toward believing something perhaps equally absurd, that everything is ordered by mathematics.

My father was second-generation college educated... with a BS in biology preparing him for an advanced degree in Forestry (soil and range science), and his parents before him both held BS degrees in Geology.   But they were all still rooted in a style of understanding the world (minerals, plants and animals, and people) which was roughly animistic... they all still lived physically close to the earth and virtually all of their relatives were still living in the hills and hollers of Appalachia. This could easily explain why I "like" the anecdotal/vernacular and distrust the *over* application of mathematics.

I've rattled on before about the *explanatory* power of models and the hypotheses they embody vs *predictive* or *communicative* or *descriptive* or even *inspirational*.   These are not orthogonal, but I think still useful... a "descriptive" model of the utlity/power of scientific thinking/modeling?

- Steve

FWIW... re: Jon's report on their nutritive value, my young chickens (6 weeks today?) have been foraging in our courtyard for about a week during the day.   At first they showed significant interest in the flies that would occasion their feeder, but seemed to learn quickly that they were not fast enough to catch them, and soon discovered the myriad ground insects that they could find by pecking and scratching.   I was sitting on a low wall next to a couple of them... they seem to like the company of humans and will come close and do their foraging near me, even though I rarely hand feed them.   I looked down and one was swallowing a very large grey-brown object which I am now sure was a miller. The miller moth infestation/epidemic/peak at my house (near the Rio Grande) seems to have lagged that of the one in Santa Fe and even just up the Pojoaque Valley where people have been reporting the deluge for weeks.   Ours just started a few days ago.

Speaking of anecdotal and just-so science stories.   I find it fascinating to note that these birds, supposedly not THAT removed from their wild ancestors are constructed from a single *large enough to eat for breakfast* egg-cell in about 20 days and emerge almost fully able to survive alone (though they benefit from the warmth and protection and guidance of a mother hen, or some people with a heat-lamp and some agri-industrially formulated food and our own curiosity). And then, not too much later, they begin to "shed an egg" nearly daily (if you keep taking them away) which if fertilized, would repeat the construction, growth process right in front of my eyes.   Aside from their daily egg-gift, I look forward to their help in insect control in my garden.... I can tolerate many pests in the garden but some years we get grasshoppers and squash bugs, each who can decimate a crop.

I've always enjoyed watching the Sphynx/Hummingbird moths around the homestead, but did not know their larval form was the "dreaded" tomato worm.   Last year, I was surprised to see that along with my tomatoes, they had discovered the volunteer datura that come up here and there around the property and two or three had ganged up on one plant and stripped it bare of leaves.    I wondered at how their metabolism handled the kind of alkaloids that humans (and cattle?) experience as "loco weed". The datura, with it's heavily cholorphylled and thick stems seemed to survive just fine and put out a fresh bounty of (smaller?) leaves and returned to it's course of producing flowers to be pollinated by (also the sphynx?) and then a seedpod to lead to this year's surprise sprouts?!

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff

Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam

un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.

President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy

emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]

mobile: (303) 859-5609

skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam

un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/

-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam

un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com

archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/

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-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam
un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ 

Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Anyway, a story is just a computable story with ABM.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Steve Smith <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 at 11:30 AM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Oh you mean an ODE.. <ducks/>

From: Friam [hidden email] on behalf of Prof David West [hidden email]
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 at 9:30 AM
To: [hidden email] [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick is a big fan of scientific story - at least "popular science" conveyed with stories - ala "Private Lives of Garden Birds" by Calvin Simonds.

davew

On Tue, May 19, 2020, at 10:13 AM, [hidden email] wrote:

Steve,

Re stories, that’s probably why I was drawn to Darwinism. Every Darwinian explanation, no matter how sophisticated, is a story, a historical narrative, arising from plausible suppositions about the way things were. Last time I read the literature, the mitochondrial data on humans suggested that we arose from a single, smallish, group in southern Africa. If that’s not an idiographic (as opposed to nomothetic) account, I don’t know what is.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Steve Smith

Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 9:04 AM

To: [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

Nick -

I *like* this kind of anecdotal/vernacular science.   I think Glen might refer to these stories/ideas as "just so stories" because they seem to be post-hoc fitting of simple yet in some sense apt models to anecdotal data gathered ad-hoc but widely.    I think I understand (and agree) with his (implied) judgment of them as being "real science" but they smack of something more than "wishful thinking", maybe "whimsical thinking"? And a sort of proto-science. Or a collective form of knowledge/wisdom formation which lacks the formal rigor of modern science. Related to what Dave appeals to with us perhaps in Jung and other ideas of collective consciousness. A step away from believing that the cosmos and everyday life are ordered by a (the) angry/benevolent god(esses) toward believing something perhaps equally absurd, that everything is ordered by mathematics.

My father was second-generation college educated... with a BS in biology preparing him for an advanced degree in Forestry (soil and range science), and his parents before him both held BS degrees in Geology.   But they were all still rooted in a style of understanding the world (minerals, plants and animals, and people) which was roughly animistic... they all still lived physically close to the earth and virtually all of their relatives were still living in the hills and hollers of Appalachia. This could easily explain why I "like" the anecdotal/vernacular and distrust the *over* application of mathematics.

I've rattled on before about the *explanatory* power of models and the hypotheses they embody vs *predictive* or *communicative* or *descriptive* or even *inspirational*.   These are not orthogonal, but I think still useful... a "descriptive" model of the utlity/power of scientific thinking/modeling?

- Steve

FWIW... re: Jon's report on their nutritive value, my young chickens (6 weeks today?) have been foraging in our courtyard for about a week during the day.   At first they showed significant interest in the flies that would occasion their feeder, but seemed to learn quickly that they were not fast enough to catch them, and soon discovered the myriad ground insects that they could find by pecking and scratching.   I was sitting on a low wall next to a couple of them... they seem to like the company of humans and will come close and do their foraging near me, even though I rarely hand feed them.   I looked down and one was swallowing a very large grey-brown object which I am now sure was a miller. The miller moth infestation/epidemic/peak at my house (near the Rio Grande) seems to have lagged that of the one in Santa Fe and even just up the Pojoaque Valley where people have been reporting the deluge for weeks.   Ours just started a few days ago.

Speaking of anecdotal and just-so science stories.   I find it fascinating to note that these birds, supposedly not THAT removed from their wild ancestors are constructed from a single *large enough to eat for breakfast* egg-cell in about 20 days and emerge almost fully able to survive alone (though they benefit from the warmth and protection and guidance of a mother hen, or some people with a heat-lamp and some agri-industrially formulated food and our own curiosity). And then, not too much later, they begin to "shed an egg" nearly daily (if you keep taking them away) which if fertilized, would repeat the construction, growth process right in front of my eyes.   Aside from their daily egg-gift, I look forward to their help in insect control in my garden.... I can tolerate many pests in the garden but some years we get grasshoppers and squash bugs, each who can decimate a crop.

I've always enjoyed watching the Sphynx/Hummingbird moths around the homestead, but did not know their larval form was the "dreaded" tomato worm.   Last year, I was surprised to see that along with my tomatoes, they had discovered the volunteer datura that come up here and there around the property and two or three had ganged up on one plant and stripped it bare of leaves.    I wondered at how their metabolism handled the kind of alkaloids that humans (and cattle?) experience as "loco weed". The datura, with it's heavily cholorphylled and thick stems seemed to survive just fine and put out a fresh bounty of (smaller?) leaves and returned to it's course of producing flowers to be pollinated by (also the sphynx?) and then a seedpod to lead to this year's surprise sprouts?!

Hi, Merle,

Are you sure it’s not 19 years? The standard “take” on insect eruptions is (used to be?) that they occur on a cycle of prime numbers to make it harder for creatures with shorter cycles to “track” them. See https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/the-cicadas-love-affair-with-prime-numbers for a pretty thin introduction to the idea.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff

Sent: Monday, May 18, 2020 10:01 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Miller, miller moths everywhere...

My son in Boulder says they get the "infestation" right on the dot every 20 years.

They are also important pollinators.

On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM Jon Zingale <[hidden email]> wrote:

Wow, they are everywhere! According to wikipedia:

Army cutworms are one of the richest foods for predators, such as brown bears, in this ecosystem, where up to 72 per cent of the moth's body weight is fat, thus making it more calorie-rich than elk or deer.^[10] This is the highest known body fat percentage of any animal.^[11]

And according to the New Mexican:

`... they do not carry disease, Formby said, and they’re not the type of moth that will get into your clothes closet and start shredding your new camel hair jacket.`

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Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.

President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy

emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

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