Local News not so good

[thompnickson2]

All,

 

Unless we are looking at some sort of statistical artifact, or geriatric bumbling on my part, the new numbers are not so good.  Today’s was the largest number of identified state cases EVER.  The santa fe increase, is part of the largest 3 day total of new cases since April 6.  New hospitalizations, which have been trundling along at 10-20 for a while, suddenly jumped to 40. 

 

I had been expecting an Easter Bump, similar to the bump that followed the Great Toilet Paper Orgy of Friday, 13 March.  I assume that even if people DIDN’t go to church, they probably let down their guard a little on that holiday.   If I am correct, this is the beginning of a new “wavelet” of cases which will come in over the next week. 

 

I hate to say this, but it is probably a time to be a little extra careful, until this next wave has been identified and isolated.

 

Happy to be shown wrong.

 

Nick

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[gepr]

I don't know. It still looks pretty good to me. (See attached.) And the site Steve sent shows NM headed back in the right direction after a bit of a bump: https://rt.live/

I've been watching Atlanta (DeKalb county) and Georgia and will be interested to see the number of cases curve after this Friday's "opening" of nail salons, etc. I'm hoping it'll be mitigated by the businesses who say they're staying closed, despite the Governor.

On 4/22/20 3:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Unless we are looking at some sort of statistical artifact, or geriatric bumbling on my part, the new numbers are not so good.  Today’s was the largest number of identified state cases EVER.  The santa fe increase, is part of the largest 3 day total of new cases since April 6.  New hospitalizations, which have been trundling along at 10-20 for a while, suddenly jumped to 40. 
>
> I had been expecting an Easter Bump, similar to the bump that followed the Great Toilet Paper Orgy of Friday, 13 March.  I assume that even if people DIDN’t go to church, they probably let down their guard a little on that holiday.   If I am correct, this is the beginning of a new “wavelet” of cases which will come in over the next week. 
>
> I hate to say this, but it is probably a time to be a little extra careful, until this next wave has been identified and isolated.

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[thompnickson2]

Well, the next few days will tell the story.

I expect an easter bump.

N

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 4:41 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good

I don't know. It still looks pretty good to me. (See attached.) And the site Steve sent shows NM headed back in the right direction after a bit of a bump: https://rt.live/

I've been watching Atlanta (DeKalb county) and Georgia and will be interested to see the number of cases curve after this Friday's "opening" of nail salons, etc. I'm hoping it'll be mitigated by the businesses who say they're staying closed, despite the Governor.

On 4/22/20 3:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Unless we are looking at some sort of statistical artifact, or geriatric bumbling on my part, the new numbers are not so good.  Today’s was the largest number of identified state cases EVER.  The santa fe increase, is part of the largest 3 day total of new cases since April 6.  New hospitalizations, which have been trundling along at 10-20 for a while, suddenly jumped to 40.
>
> I had been expecting an Easter Bump, similar to the bump that followed the Great Toilet Paper Orgy of Friday, 13 March.  I assume that even if people DIDN’t go to church, they probably let down their guard a little on that holiday.   If I am correct, this is the beginning of a new “wavelet” of cases which will come in over the next week.
>
> I hate to say this, but it is probably a time to be a little extra careful, until this next wave has been identified and isolated.

--
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[Marcus G. Daniels]

A Nanopore sequencing machine would have been a great SF Complex purchase.   FRIAM could screen members for in-person meetings.   I guess that Santa Fe is in a terrible financial condition now, so they won't be buying one.  

On 4/22/20, 5:08 PM, "Friam on behalf of [hidden email]" <[hidden email] on behalf of [hidden email]> wrote:

    Well, the next few days will tell the story.
   
    I expect an easter bump.
   
    N
   
    Nicholas Thompson
    Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
    Clark University
    [hidden email]
    https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
     
   
   
    -----Original Message-----
    From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
    Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 4:41 PM
    To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
    Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good
   
    I don't know. It still looks pretty good to me. (See attached.) And the site Steve sent shows NM headed back in the right direction after a bit of a bump: https://rt.live/
   
    I've been watching Atlanta (DeKalb county) and Georgia and will be interested to see the number of cases curve after this Friday's "opening" of nail salons, etc. I'm hoping it'll be mitigated by the businesses who say they're staying closed, despite the Governor.
   
    On 4/22/20 3:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
    > Unless we are looking at some sort of statistical artifact, or geriatric bumbling on my part, the new numbers are not so good.  Today’s was the largest number of identified state cases EVER.  The santa fe increase, is part of the largest 3 day total of new cases since April 6.  New hospitalizations, which have been trundling along at 10-20 for a while, suddenly jumped to 40.
    >
    > I had been expecting an Easter Bump, similar to the bump that followed the Great Toilet Paper Orgy of Friday, 13 March.  I assume that even if people DIDN’t go to church, they probably let down their guard a little on that holiday.   If I am correct, this is the beginning of a new “wavelet” of cases which will come in over the next week.
    >
    > I hate to say this, but it is probably a time to be a little extra careful, until this next wave has been identified and isolated.
   
    --
    ☣ uǝlƃ
   
   
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[gepr]

If median ... median ... incubation is ~5 days, and we had perfect case data (Ha!), then we'd see the bump near the 18th/19th. The rt.live data shows NM's R(t) > 1 on the 14th, two days after Easter, then seemingly peaking ~16th, with a fat tail. The smoother could easily be affecting that. A good counter hypothesis is *that* is your bump and you'll return to the path you were on on the 12th.


On 4/22/20 5:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Well, the next few days will tell the story.
>
> I expect an easter bump.


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[thompnickson2]

Well, how long does it take a case to incubate, "come in",  and be tested.  I was thinking that was around ten days.  I will check with the DHS data when it comes out on Thursday.  Remember most cases start (and often remain) pretty cold-like.  Still, there are more tests around, now, so the lag should be decreasing.

Nick


Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 6:20 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good

If median ... median ... incubation is ~5 days, and we had perfect case data (Ha!), then we'd see the bump near the 18th/19th. The rt.live data shows NM's R(t) > 1 on the 14th, two days after Easter, then seemingly peaking ~16th, with a fat tail. The smoother could easily be affecting that. A good counter hypothesis is *that* is your bump and you'll return to the path you were on on the 12th.


On 4/22/20 5:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Well, the next few days will tell the story.
>
> I expect an easter bump.


--
☣ uǝlƃ

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[gepr]

Also, you can see that many states in the rt.live data show a bump around the 16th, some later toward the 19th. I grok the point about feeling symptoms then coming in, then wait for the test results. But we also have to factor in that many people who are infected won't come in and get tested at all. There's still a huge set of us who won't bother to go to the doctor with cold-like symptoms. And, all we're feeling are cold like symptoms, then it's possible the test bump you're seeing here are for people who get sick quicker, and get sicker. If 80% of us are asymptomatic and/or only get mild symptoms, it might *shorten* the time between Easter and the Easter bump in cases because it's only that 20% who get sick quicker and get sicker that populate the bump.

In any case, you're right to *wait*. Speculation can only be wild. I'm just offering some equally unfounded speculation to counter yours. >8^D

On 4/22/20 5:25 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Well, how long does it take a case to incubate, "come in",  and be tested.  I was thinking that was around ten days.  I will check with the DHS data when it comes out on Thursday.  Remember most cases start (and often remain) pretty cold-like.  Still, there are more tests around, now, so the lag should be decreasing.


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[thompnickson2]

With all that we don't know about this disease that is probably unknowable for months, there are a gazillion useful things that we could know which would be great to know:  Like, what is the relation between rapidity of onset and outcome?

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Wednesday, April 22, 2020 6:34 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good

Also, you can see that many states in the rt.live data show a bump around the 16th, some later toward the 19th. I grok the point about feeling symptoms then coming in, then wait for the test results. But we also have to factor in that many people who are infected won't come in and get tested at all. There's still a huge set of us who won't bother to go to the doctor with cold-like symptoms. And, all we're feeling are cold like symptoms, then it's possible the test bump you're seeing here are for people who get sick quicker, and get sicker. If 80% of us are asymptomatic and/or only get mild symptoms, it might *shorten* the time between Easter and the Easter bump in cases because it's only that 20% who get sick quicker and get sicker that populate the bump.

In any case, you're right to *wait*. Speculation can only be wild. I'm just offering some equally unfounded speculation to counter yours. >8^D

On 4/22/20 5:25 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> Well, how long does it take a case to incubate, "come in",  and be tested.  I was thinking that was around ten days.  I will check with the DHS data when it comes out on Thursday.  Remember most cases start (and often remain) pretty cold-like.  Still, there are more tests around, now, so the lag should be decreasing.


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[gepr]

Bah! The rt.live people must have been listening to our conversation. 8^) We'll have to look elsewhere for the Easter bump.

https://rt.live/
> Model Updates
>
>     Based on suggestions and ideas from the community, we made a major model update on 4/23. The new version of this model accounts for variation in serial interval and delay between onset of symptoms and a positive test. Because of these changes, it is also more robust to large changes in reported tests. However, this also means that Rt will be far less variable day-to-day than the previous model.


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[gepr]

So, I've been monitoring both the NYT and JHU data pretty much every day. But I like looking at raw data more than fits (which are just another type of visualization [ptouie]). But as a slight capitulation to the hunt for an Easter bump, I added a spline to my regular plots. Maybe this will help spot any bumps? (I'm still more interested in DeKalb county, if Kemp insists on relaxing the closures this weekend.)


On 4/23/20 8:41 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> Bah! The rt.live people must have been listening to our conversation. 8^) We'll have to look elsewhere for the Easter bump.
>
> https://rt.live/
>> Model Updates
>>
>>     Based on suggestions and ideas from the community, we made a major model update on 4/23. The new version of this model accounts for variation in serial interval and delay between onset of symptoms and a positive test. Because of these changes, it is also more robust to large changes in reported tests. However, this also means that Rt will be far less variable day-to-day than the previous model.
>
>

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[thompnickson2]

Glen,

But why would the people of Thurston be any less Easter Bumpy than the people of Santa Fe?  Not good for the Easter Bump Theory.  

Is there any evidence of a Lockdown Bounce?  I keep seeing in tracings a flattening and then about a week later a new rise and then finally a long slope down.  Does that seem familiar to you?


By the way, Glen, those are some handsome charts.  

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of u?l? ?
Sent: Thursday, April 23, 2020 1:45 PM
To: FriAM <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Local News not so good

So, I've been monitoring both the NYT and JHU data pretty much every day. But I like looking at raw data more than fits (which are just another type of visualization [ptouie]). But as a slight capitulation to the hunt for an Easter bump, I added a spline to my regular plots. Maybe this will help spot any bumps? (I'm still more interested in DeKalb county, if Kemp insists on relaxing the closures this weekend.)


On 4/23/20 8:41 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> Bah! The rt.live people must have been listening to our conversation. 8^) We'll have to look elsewhere for the Easter bump.
>
> https://rt.live/
>> Model Updates
>>
>>     Based on suggestions and ideas from the community, we made a major model update on 4/23. The new version of this model accounts for variation in serial interval and delay between onset of symptoms and a positive test. Because of these changes, it is also more robust to large changes in reported tests. However, this also means that Rt will be far less variable day-to-day than the previous model.
>
>

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[gepr]

The only suggestion I could make with a straight face might be poverty and/or wealth distribution. You guys have a higher poverty rate and more of a divide between you rich people with multiple homes and the rest of the population. I'm tempted to include some sort of cultural difference, too. You have a lot of Christians. And while we might have a lot of Protestants (I don't really know because I just moved here), my guess is they're less inclined to big families and social gatherings than the Catholics. But I might be approaching a little racism with those comments. So, I should just shut up, now. 8^)

As for a lockdown bounce, I kindasortaifisquint see an inflection point in the Denver data [†]. And although I stopped looking at LA, I thought I saw one there, too. But to add to the Santa Clara (and Iceland) data showing a much higher infection rate than as indicated by confirmed case data, the news from New York today validates that trend: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html And if that's the situation, then imputing mechanisms to the data we're seeing will be much more difficult.

And the plots are pretty much the standard ones you get from R. So, all credit goes there. But thanks, anyway.

[†] My sister lives there.

On 4/23/20 1:05 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
> But why would the people of Thurston be any less Easter Bumpy than the people of Santa Fe?  Not good for the Easter Bump Theory.  
>
> Is there any evidence of a Lockdown Bounce?  I keep seeing in tracings a flattening and then about a week later a new rise and then finally a long slope down.  Does that seem familiar to you?
>
>
> By the way, Glen, those are some handsome charts.  


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