Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and Timothy Trucano

[Stephen Guerin]

*** special time: 12p ***

SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
        Sandia National Laboratories

TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational Modeling and Simulation and High
Consequence Decision-Making

TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room

We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers at Dominics at 10:30a.
Everyone invited.
No lunch will be provided.

ABSTRACT:
Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence community has faced criticism
for repeatedly failing to predict major international events: the end of the
Cold war, India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, terrorist activities within and
outside the United States.  In response, institutions in the IC have been
looking for methodologies and technologies to improve performance in the
collection and analysis of intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's
analytical community is looking to modeling and simulation tools to
revolutionize intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to bridge
information gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or perhaps despite)
intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.    

This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that the nuclear weapons
laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the Hatfield Amendment killed the
testing program and the DOE introduced Science Based Stockpile Stewardship as
the new paradigm for assessing and certifying the safety, security, and
reliability of the nuclear stockpile.  In particular, both the nuclear weapons
and intelligence communities have invested in modeling and simulation
technologies for their capacity to synthesize large amounts of information in
relatively short periods of time, and for their predictive promise.  However, as
the nuclear weapons laboratories have discovered, predictive capability is a
hard thing to attain, and modeling and simulation tools often raise more
questions than they answer.

In this talk, we argue that the intelligence community and the nuclear weapons
laboratories are facing remarkably similar challenges in developing, assessing,
and integrating modeling and simulation tools into their mission activities.  In
particular, epistemological issues that tend to remain latent in academic
research environments get thrown into high relief when information generated by
modeling and simulation tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We
illustrate this point by reviewing research on modeling and simulation,
knowledge production, and prediction in economics, weather forecasting, climate
modeling.   We then present case studies from the nuclear weapons programs and
the intelligence community, both of which reveal the close coupling between
technology and organizational dynamics that characterizes modeling and
simulation in high-consequence decision making.

This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of discussion and collaboration
between Trucano, a mathematician who has spent his career in computational
physics at Sandia National Laboratories; and McNamara, a cultural anthropologist
who has studied knowledge production in both the nuclear weapons and the
intelligence communities. All topics will be discussed at the OUO level.




--------------------------------------------------------

editors note: I had to look up "OUO"

If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this talk may be perfect for you.

Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that recently
dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a year ago. Founded by Akim the Funk
Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html

Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura and Tim created the talk...

okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only": identifying certain unclassified
but sensitive Department of Energy information that may be exempt from public
release under the Freedom of Information Act

[McNamara, Laura A]

Actually, we're beyond OUO!  Which means all topics can be discussed
completely openly - that was a leftover from our LANL version of the
same talk.

Burritos?  Wow.  We got water at LANL...  :)

Cheers,

Laura

-----Original Message-----
From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On
Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 5:05 PM
To: friam at redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and Timothy Trucano

*** special time: 12p ***

SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
        Sandia National Laboratories

TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational Modeling and Simulation
and High Consequence Decision-Making

TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room

We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers at Dominics at
10:30a.
Everyone invited.
No lunch will be provided.

ABSTRACT:
Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence community has faced
criticism for repeatedly failing to predict major international events:
the end of the Cold war, India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, terrorist
activities within and outside the United States.  In response,
institutions in the IC have been looking for methodologies and
technologies to improve performance in the collection and analysis of
intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's analytical community
is looking to modeling and simulation tools to revolutionize
intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to bridge information
gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or perhaps despite)
intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.    

This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that the nuclear weapons
laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the Hatfield Amendment
killed the testing program and the DOE introduced Science Based
Stockpile Stewardship as the new paradigm for assessing and certifying
the safety, security, and reliability of the nuclear stockpile.  In
particular, both the nuclear weapons and intelligence communities have
invested in modeling and simulation technologies for their capacity to
synthesize large amounts of information in relatively short periods of
time, and for their predictive promise.  However, as the nuclear weapons
laboratories have discovered, predictive capability is a hard thing to
attain, and modeling and simulation tools often raise more questions
than they answer.

In this talk, we argue that the intelligence community and the nuclear
weapons laboratories are facing remarkably similar challenges in
developing, assessing, and integrating modeling and simulation tools
into their mission activities.  In particular, epistemological issues
that tend to remain latent in academic research environments get thrown
into high relief when information generated by modeling and simulation
tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We illustrate this
point by reviewing research on modeling and simulation, knowledge
production, and prediction in economics, weather forecasting, climate
modeling.   We then present case studies from the nuclear weapons
programs and
the intelligence community, both of which reveal the close coupling
between technology and organizational dynamics that characterizes
modeling and simulation in high-consequence decision making.

This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of discussion and
collaboration between Trucano, a mathematician who has spent his career
in computational physics at Sandia National Laboratories; and McNamara,
a cultural anthropologist who has studied knowledge production in both
the nuclear weapons and the intelligence communities. All topics will be
discussed at the OUO level.




--------------------------------------------------------

editors note: I had to look up "OUO"

If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this talk may be perfect
for you.

Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that
recently dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a year ago. Founded by
Akim the Funk Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html

Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura and Tim created the
talk...

okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only": identifying certain
unclassified but sensitive Department of Energy information that may be
exempt from public release under the Freedom of Information Act




============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives,
unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

[Douglas Roberts-2]

I bet the water had chromium in it.

Sorry to miss your talk tomorrow:  I'm jammed with meetings until
mid-afternoon.

--Doug

On 10/31/06, McNamara, Laura A <lamcnam at sandia.gov> wrote:

>
> Actually, we're beyond OUO!  Which means all topics can be discussed
> completely openly - that was a leftover from our LANL version of the
> same talk.
>
> Burritos?  Wow.  We got water at LANL...  :)
>
> Cheers,
>
> Laura
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On
> Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
> Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 5:05 PM
> To: friam at redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and Timothy Trucano
>
> *** special time: 12p ***
>
> SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
>         Sandia National Laboratories
>
> TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational Modeling and Simulation
> and High Consequence Decision-Making
>
> TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
> LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room
>
> We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers at Dominics at
> 10:30a.
> Everyone invited.
> No lunch will be provided.
>
> ABSTRACT:
> Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence community has faced
> criticism for repeatedly failing to predict major international events:
> the end of the Cold war, India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, terrorist
> activities within and outside the United States.  In response,
> institutions in the IC have been looking for methodologies and
> technologies to improve performance in the collection and analysis of
> intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's analytical community
> is looking to modeling and simulation tools to revolutionize
> intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to bridge information
> gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or perhaps despite)
> intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.
>
> This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that the nuclear weapons
> laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the Hatfield Amendment
> killed the testing program and the DOE introduced Science Based
> Stockpile Stewardship as the new paradigm for assessing and certifying
> the safety, security, and reliability of the nuclear stockpile.  In
> particular, both the nuclear weapons and intelligence communities have
> invested in modeling and simulation technologies for their capacity to
> synthesize large amounts of information in relatively short periods of
> time, and for their predictive promise.  However, as the nuclear weapons
> laboratories have discovered, predictive capability is a hard thing to
> attain, and modeling and simulation tools often raise more questions
> than they answer.
>
> In this talk, we argue that the intelligence community and the nuclear
> weapons laboratories are facing remarkably similar challenges in
> developing, assessing, and integrating modeling and simulation tools
> into their mission activities.  In particular, epistemological issues
> that tend to remain latent in academic research environments get thrown
> into high relief when information generated by modeling and simulation
> tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We illustrate this
> point by reviewing research on modeling and simulation, knowledge
> production, and prediction in economics, weather forecasting, climate
> modeling.   We then present case studies from the nuclear weapons
> programs and
> the intelligence community, both of which reveal the close coupling
> between technology and organizational dynamics that characterizes
> modeling and simulation in high-consequence decision making.
>
> This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of discussion and
> collaboration between Trucano, a mathematician who has spent his career
> in computational physics at Sandia National Laboratories; and McNamara,
> a cultural anthropologist who has studied knowledge production in both
> the nuclear weapons and the intelligence communities. All topics will be
> discussed at the OUO level.
>
>
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------
>
> editors note: I had to look up "OUO"
>
> If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this talk may be perfect
> for you.
>
> Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that
> recently dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a year ago. Founded by
> Akim the Funk Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
> http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html
>
> Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura and Tim created the
> talk...
>
> okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only": identifying certain
> unclassified but sensitive Department of Energy information that may be
> exempt from public release under the Freedom of Information Act
>
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives,
> unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
droberts at rti.org
doug at parrot-farm.net
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
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[Alfredo Covaleda]

It'd be great if someday you could broadcast talks by internet. Not necessary
in real time.

Kind regards

Alfredo


On Tuesday 31 October 2006 11:32, McNamara, Laura A wrote:

> Actually, we're beyond OUO!  Which means all topics can be discussed
> completely openly - that was a leftover from our LANL version of the
> same talk.
>
> Burritos?  Wow.  We got water at LANL...  :)
>
> Cheers,
>
> Laura
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On
> Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
> Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 5:05 PM
> To: friam at redfish.com
> Subject: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and Timothy Trucano
>
> *** special time: 12p ***
>
> SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
> Sandia National Laboratories
>
> TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational Modeling and Simulation
> and High Consequence Decision-Making
>
> TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
> LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room
>
> We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers at Dominics at
> 10:30a.
> Everyone invited.
> No lunch will be provided.
>
> ABSTRACT:
> Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence community has faced
> criticism for repeatedly failing to predict major international events:
> the end of the Cold war, India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, terrorist
> activities within and outside the United States.  In response,
> institutions in the IC have been looking for methodologies and
> technologies to improve performance in the collection and analysis of
> intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's analytical community
> is looking to modeling and simulation tools to revolutionize
> intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to bridge information
> gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or perhaps despite)
> intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.
>
> This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that the nuclear weapons
> laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the Hatfield Amendment
> killed the testing program and the DOE introduced Science Based
> Stockpile Stewardship as the new paradigm for assessing and certifying
> the safety, security, and reliability of the nuclear stockpile.  In
> particular, both the nuclear weapons and intelligence communities have
> invested in modeling and simulation technologies for their capacity to
> synthesize large amounts of information in relatively short periods of
> time, and for their predictive promise.  However, as the nuclear weapons
> laboratories have discovered, predictive capability is a hard thing to
> attain, and modeling and simulation tools often raise more questions
> than they answer.
>
> In this talk, we argue that the intelligence community and the nuclear
> weapons laboratories are facing remarkably similar challenges in
> developing, assessing, and integrating modeling and simulation tools
> into their mission activities.  In particular, epistemological issues
> that tend to remain latent in academic research environments get thrown
> into high relief when information generated by modeling and simulation
> tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We illustrate this
> point by reviewing research on modeling and simulation, knowledge
> production, and prediction in economics, weather forecasting, climate
> modeling.   We then present case studies from the nuclear weapons
> programs and
> the intelligence community, both of which reveal the close coupling
> between technology and organizational dynamics that characterizes
> modeling and simulation in high-consequence decision making.
>
> This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of discussion and
> collaboration between Trucano, a mathematician who has spent his career
> in computational physics at Sandia National Laboratories; and McNamara,
> a cultural anthropologist who has studied knowledge production in both
> the nuclear weapons and the intelligence communities. All topics will be
> discussed at the OUO level.
>
>
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------------
>
> editors note: I had to look up "OUO"
>
> If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this talk may be perfect
> for you.
>
> Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that
> recently dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a year ago. Founded by
> Akim the Funk Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
> http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html
>
> Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura and Tim created the
> talk...
>
> okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only": identifying certain
> unclassified but sensitive Department of Energy information that may be
> exempt from public release under the Freedom of Information Act
>
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives,
> unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

--
Hasta pronto

Alfredo Covaleda V?lez
---------------------------------------------
Compre sus libros en
http://www.loslibrosusados.com
http://www.bibliotienda.com
---------------------------------------------

[Giles Bowkett]

+1

Podcasts! (I have to go to Abq. tomorrow.)

On 10/31/06, Alfredo <agbioinfo at gmx.net> wrote:

>
> It'd be great if someday you could broadcast talks by internet. Not necessary
> in real time.
>
> Kind regards
>
> Alfredo
>
>
> On Tuesday 31 October 2006 11:32, McNamara, Laura A wrote:
> > Actually, we're beyond OUO!  Which means all topics can be discussed
> > completely openly - that was a leftover from our LANL version of the
> > same talk.
> >
> > Burritos?  Wow.  We got water at LANL...  :)
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Laura
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On
> > Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
> > Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 5:05 PM
> > To: friam at redfish.com
> > Subject: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and Timothy Trucano
> >
> > *** special time: 12p ***
> >
> > SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
> >       Sandia National Laboratories
> >
> > TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational Modeling and Simulation
> > and High Consequence Decision-Making
> >
> > TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
> > LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room
> >
> > We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers at Dominics at
> > 10:30a.
> > Everyone invited.
> > No lunch will be provided.
> >
> > ABSTRACT:
> > Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence community has faced
> > criticism for repeatedly failing to predict major international events:
> > the end of the Cold war, India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, terrorist
> > activities within and outside the United States.  In response,
> > institutions in the IC have been looking for methodologies and
> > technologies to improve performance in the collection and analysis of
> > intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's analytical community
> > is looking to modeling and simulation tools to revolutionize
> > intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to bridge information
> > gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or perhaps despite)
> > intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.
> >
> > This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that the nuclear weapons
> > laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the Hatfield Amendment
> > killed the testing program and the DOE introduced Science Based
> > Stockpile Stewardship as the new paradigm for assessing and certifying
> > the safety, security, and reliability of the nuclear stockpile.  In
> > particular, both the nuclear weapons and intelligence communities have
> > invested in modeling and simulation technologies for their capacity to
> > synthesize large amounts of information in relatively short periods of
> > time, and for their predictive promise.  However, as the nuclear weapons
> > laboratories have discovered, predictive capability is a hard thing to
> > attain, and modeling and simulation tools often raise more questions
> > than they answer.
> >
> > In this talk, we argue that the intelligence community and the nuclear
> > weapons laboratories are facing remarkably similar challenges in
> > developing, assessing, and integrating modeling and simulation tools
> > into their mission activities.  In particular, epistemological issues
> > that tend to remain latent in academic research environments get thrown
> > into high relief when information generated by modeling and simulation
> > tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We illustrate this
> > point by reviewing research on modeling and simulation, knowledge
> > production, and prediction in economics, weather forecasting, climate
> > modeling.   We then present case studies from the nuclear weapons
> > programs and
> > the intelligence community, both of which reveal the close coupling
> > between technology and organizational dynamics that characterizes
> > modeling and simulation in high-consequence decision making.
> >
> > This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of discussion and
> > collaboration between Trucano, a mathematician who has spent his career
> > in computational physics at Sandia National Laboratories; and McNamara,
> > a cultural anthropologist who has studied knowledge production in both
> > the nuclear weapons and the intelligence communities. All topics will be
> > discussed at the OUO level.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > editors note: I had to look up "OUO"
> >
> > If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this talk may be perfect
> > for you.
> >
> > Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that
> > recently dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a year ago. Founded by
> > Akim the Funk Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
> > http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html
> >
> > Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura and Tim created the
> > talk...
> >
> > okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only": identifying certain
> > unclassified but sensitive Department of Energy information that may be
> > exempt from public release under the Freedom of Information Act
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives,
> > unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >
> >
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
> --
> Hasta pronto
>
> Alfredo Covaleda V?lez
> ---------------------------------------------
> Compre sus libros en
> http://www.loslibrosusados.com
> http://www.bibliotienda.com
> ---------------------------------------------
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

--
Giles Bowkett
http://www.gilesgoatboy.org

[Robert Holmes]

Aaaargh! One of the most interesting meetings in months and I have to miss
it :-(

Given the huge quantity of technologists round here we really out to get
this whole recording/podcast thingy sorted out....

R

On 10/31/06, Giles Bowkett <gilesb at gmail.com> wrote:

>
> +1
>
> Podcasts! (I have to go to Abq. tomorrow.)
>
> On 10/31/06, Alfredo <agbioinfo at gmx.net> wrote:
> >
> > It'd be great if someday you could broadcast talks by internet. Not
> necessary
> > in real time.
> >
> > Kind regards
> >
> > Alfredo
> >
> >
> > On Tuesday 31 October 2006 11:32, McNamara, Laura A wrote:
> > > Actually, we're beyond OUO!  Which means all topics can be discussed
> > > completely openly - that was a leftover from our LANL version of the
> > > same talk.
> > >
> > > Burritos?  Wow.  We got water at LANL...  :)
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > >
> > > Laura
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com] On
> > > Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
> > > Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 5:05 PM
> > > To: friam at redfish.com
> > > Subject: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and Timothy Trucano
> > >
> > > *** special time: 12p ***
> > >
> > > SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
> > >       Sandia National Laboratories
> > >
> > > TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational Modeling and Simulation
> > > and High Consequence Decision-Making
> > >
> > > TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
> > > LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room
> > >
> > > We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers at Dominics at
> > > 10:30a.
> > > Everyone invited.
> > > No lunch will be provided.
> > >
> > > ABSTRACT:
> > > Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence community has faced
> > > criticism for repeatedly failing to predict major international
> events:
> > > the end of the Cold war, India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, terrorist
> > > activities within and outside the United States.  In response,
> > > institutions in the IC have been looking for methodologies and
> > > technologies to improve performance in the collection and analysis of
> > > intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's analytical
> community
> > > is looking to modeling and simulation tools to revolutionize
> > > intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to bridge information
> > > gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or perhaps despite)
> > > intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.
> > >
> > > This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that the nuclear
> weapons
> > > laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the Hatfield Amendment
> > > killed the testing program and the DOE introduced Science Based
> > > Stockpile Stewardship as the new paradigm for assessing and certifying
> > > the safety, security, and reliability of the nuclear stockpile.  In
> > > particular, both the nuclear weapons and intelligence communities have
> > > invested in modeling and simulation technologies for their capacity to
> > > synthesize large amounts of information in relatively short periods of
> > > time, and for their predictive promise.  However, as the nuclear
> weapons
> > > laboratories have discovered, predictive capability is a hard thing to
> > > attain, and modeling and simulation tools often raise more questions
> > > than they answer.
> > >
> > > In this talk, we argue that the intelligence community and the nuclear
> > > weapons laboratories are facing remarkably similar challenges in
> > > developing, assessing, and integrating modeling and simulation tools
> > > into their mission activities.  In particular, epistemological issues
> > > that tend to remain latent in academic research environments get
> thrown
> > > into high relief when information generated by modeling and simulation
> > > tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We illustrate this
> > > point by reviewing research on modeling and simulation, knowledge
> > > production, and prediction in economics, weather forecasting, climate
> > > modeling.   We then present case studies from the nuclear weapons
> > > programs and
> > > the intelligence community, both of which reveal the close coupling
> > > between technology and organizational dynamics that characterizes
> > > modeling and simulation in high-consequence decision making.
> > >
> > > This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of discussion and
> > > collaboration between Trucano, a mathematician who has spent his
> career
> > > in computational physics at Sandia National Laboratories; and
> McNamara,
> > > a cultural anthropologist who has studied knowledge production in both
> > > the nuclear weapons and the intelligence communities. All topics will
> be
> > > discussed at the OUO level.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --------------------------------------------------------
> > >
> > > editors note: I had to look up "OUO"
> > >
> > > If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this talk may be perfect
> > > for you.
> > >
> > > Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that
> > > recently dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a year ago. Founded by
> > > Akim the Funk Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
> > > http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html
> > >
> > > Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura and Tim created the
> > > talk...
> > >
> > > okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only": identifying certain
> > > unclassified but sensitive Department of Energy information that may
> be
> > > exempt from public release under the Freedom of Information Act
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ============================================================
> > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures,
> archives,
> > > unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ============================================================
> > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >
> > --
> > Hasta pronto
> >
> > Alfredo Covaleda V?lez
> > ---------------------------------------------
> > Compre sus libros en
> > http://www.loslibrosusados.com
> > http://www.bibliotienda.com
> > ---------------------------------------------
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >
>
>
> --
> Giles Bowkett
> http://www.gilesgoatboy.org
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

-------------- next part --------------
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[Stephen Guerin]

We have about 5 talks recorded and I plan on recording this one. If only we
could find someone in FRIAM that loves Mac and is cool enough to convert digital
tape to podcasts. PCs are mainly for numbers and office work after all :-)

The position will pay one Moon mug or t-shirt
(http://www.cafepress.com/MoonsCalendar). :-)

-Steve
 

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Robert Holmes [mailto:robert at holmesacosta.com]
> Sent: Wednesday, November 01, 2006 9:01 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and
> Timothy Trucano
>
> Aaaargh! One of the most interesting meetings in months and I
> have to miss it :-(
>
> Given the huge quantity of technologists round here we really
> out to get this whole recording/podcast thingy sorted out....
>
> R
>
>
> On 10/31/06, Giles Bowkett <gilesb at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> +1
>
> Podcasts! (I have to go to Abq. tomorrow.)
>
> On 10/31/06, Alfredo <agbioinfo at gmx.net> wrote:
> >
> > It'd be great if someday you could broadcast talks by
> internet. Not necessary
> > in real time.
> >
> > Kind regards
> >
> > Alfredo
> >
> >
> > On Tuesday 31 October 2006 11:32, McNamara, Laura A wrote:
> > > Actually, we're beyond OUO!  Which means all topics
> can be discussed
> > > completely openly - that was a leftover from our
> LANL version of the
> > > same talk.
> > >
> > > Burritos?  Wow.  We got water at LANL...  :)
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > >
> > > Laura
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: friam-bounces at redfish.com
> [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com ] On
> > > Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
> > > Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 5:05 PM
> > > To: friam at redfish.com
> > > Subject: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara
> and Timothy Trucano
> > >
> > > *** special time: 12p ***
> > >
> > > SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
> > >       Sandia National Laboratories
> > >
> > > TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational
> Modeling and Simulation
> > > and High Consequence Decision-Making
> > >
> > > TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
> > > LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room
> > >
> > > We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers
> at Dominics at
> > > 10:30a.
> > > Everyone invited.
> > > No lunch will be provided.
> > >
> > > ABSTRACT:
> > > Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence
> community has faced
> > > criticism for repeatedly failing to predict major
> international events:
> > > the end of the Cold war, India and Pakistan's
> nuclear tests, terrorist
> > > activities within and outside the United States.  
> In response,
> > > institutions in the IC have been looking for
> methodologies and
> > > technologies to improve performance in the
> collection and analysis of
> > > intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's
> analytical community
> > > is looking to modeling and simulation tools to
> revolutionize
> > > intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to
> bridge information
> > > gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or
> perhaps despite)
> > > intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.
> > >
> > > This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that
> the nuclear weapons
> > > laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the
> Hatfield Amendment
> > > killed the testing program and the DOE introduced
> Science Based
> > > Stockpile Stewardship as the new paradigm for
> assessing and certifying
> > > the safety, security, and reliability of the
> nuclear stockpile.  In
> > > particular, both the nuclear weapons and
> intelligence communities have
> > > invested in modeling and simulation technologies
> for their capacity to
> > > synthesize large amounts of information in
> relatively short periods of
> > > time, and for their predictive promise.  However,
> as the nuclear weapons
> > > laboratories have discovered, predictive capability
> is a hard thing to
> > > attain, and modeling and simulation tools often
> raise more questions
> > > than they answer.
> > >
> > > In this talk, we argue that the intelligence
> community and the nuclear
> > > weapons laboratories are facing remarkably similar
> challenges in
> > > developing, assessing, and integrating modeling and
> simulation tools
> > > into their mission activities.  In particular,
> epistemological issues
> > > that tend to remain latent in academic research
> environments get thrown
> > > into high relief when information generated by
> modeling and simulation
> > > tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We
> illustrate this
> > > point by reviewing research on modeling and
> simulation, knowledge
> > > production, and prediction in economics, weather
> forecasting, climate
> > > modeling.   We then present case studies from the
> nuclear weapons
> > > programs and
> > > the intelligence community, both of which reveal
> the close coupling
> > > between technology and organizational dynamics that
> characterizes
> > > modeling and simulation in high-consequence
> decision making.
> > >
> > > This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of
> discussion and
> > > collaboration between Trucano, a mathematician who
> has spent his career
> > > in computational physics at Sandia National
> Laboratories; and McNamara,
> > > a cultural anthropologist who has studied knowledge
> production in both
> > > the nuclear weapons and the intelligence
> communities. All topics will be
> > > discussed at the OUO level.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --------------------------------------------------------
> > >
> > > editors note: I had to look up "OUO"
> > >
> > > If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this
> talk may be perfect
> > > for you.
> > >
> > > Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex
> Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that
> > > recently dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a
> year ago. Founded by
> > > Akim the Funk Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
> > > http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html
> > >
> > > Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura
> and Tim created the
> > > talk...
> > >
> > > okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only":
> identifying certain
> > > unclassified but sensitive Department of Energy
> information that may be
> > > exempt from public release under the Freedom of
> Information Act
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ============================================================
> > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's
> College lectures, archives,
> > > unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ============================================================
> > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at
> http://www.friam.org
> >
> > --
> > Hasta pronto
> >
> > Alfredo Covaleda V?lez
> > ---------------------------------------------
> > Compre sus libros en
> > http://www.loslibrosusados.com
> > http://www.bibliotienda.com <http://www.bibliotienda.com>
> > ---------------------------------------------
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >
>
>
> --
> Giles Bowkett
> http://www.gilesgoatboy.org
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at
> http://www.friam.org <http://www.friam.org>
>
>
>
>

[Giles Bowkett]

hmmm, what if I still love Apple even though we had to break up?

I have a small recording studio at home...Steve Jobs broke my heart
one too many times (when he killed PowerPC) but it may be possible
anyway...those machines are Unix so any type of export should be
reasonably possible...

On 11/1/06, Stephen Guerin <stephen.guerin at redfish.com> wrote:

> We have about 5 talks recorded and I plan on recording this one. If only we
> could find someone in FRIAM that loves Mac and is cool enough to convert digital
> tape to podcasts. PCs are mainly for numbers and office work after all :-)
>
> The position will pay one Moon mug or t-shirt
> (http://www.cafepress.com/MoonsCalendar). :-)
>
> -Steve
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Robert Holmes [mailto:robert at holmesacosta.com]
> > Sent: Wednesday, November 01, 2006 9:01 AM
> > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara and
> > Timothy Trucano
> >
> > Aaaargh! One of the most interesting meetings in months and I
> > have to miss it :-(
> >
> > Given the huge quantity of technologists round here we really
> > out to get this whole recording/podcast thingy sorted out....
> >
> > R
> >
> >
> > On 10/31/06, Giles Bowkett <gilesb at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >       +1
> >
> >       Podcasts! (I have to go to Abq. tomorrow.)
> >
> >       On 10/31/06, Alfredo <agbioinfo at gmx.net> wrote:
> >       >
> >       > It'd be great if someday you could broadcast talks by
> > internet. Not necessary
> >       > in real time.
> >       >
> >       > Kind regards
> >       >
> >       > Alfredo
> >       >
> >       >
> >       > On Tuesday 31 October 2006 11:32, McNamara, Laura A wrote:
> >       > > Actually, we're beyond OUO!  Which means all topics
> > can be discussed
> >       > > completely openly - that was a leftover from our
> > LANL version of the
> >       > > same talk.
> >       > >
> >       > > Burritos?  Wow.  We got water at LANL...  :)
> >       > >
> >       > > Cheers,
> >       > >
> >       > > Laura
> >       > >
> >       > > -----Original Message-----
> >       > > From: friam-bounces at redfish.com
> > [mailto:friam-bounces at redfish.com ] On
> >       > > Behalf Of Stephen Guerin
> >       > > Sent: Monday, October 30, 2006 5:05 PM
> >       > > To: friam at redfish.com
> >       > > Subject: [FRIAM] Lecture Nov 1 12p: Laura McNamara
> > and Timothy Trucano
> >       > >
> >       > > *** special time: 12p ***
> >       > >
> >       > > SPEAKERs: Laura A. McNamara and Timothy G. Trucano
> >       > >       Sandia National Laboratories
> >       > >
> >       > > TITLE: Epistemological Issues in Computational
> > Modeling and Simulation
> >       > > and High Consequence Decision-Making
> >       > >
> >       > > TIME: Wed Nov 1, 2006 12:00p  ** note special time
> >       > > LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room
> >       > >
> >       > > We will have breakfast burrittos with the speakers
> > at Dominics at
> >       > > 10:30a.
> >       > > Everyone invited.
> >       > > No lunch will be provided.
> >       > >
> >       > > ABSTRACT:
> >       > > Since the end of the Cold war, the US intelligence
> > community has faced
> >       > > criticism for repeatedly failing to predict major
> > international events:
> >       > > the end of the Cold war, India and Pakistan's
> > nuclear tests, terrorist
> >       > > activities within and outside the United States.
> > In response,
> >       > > institutions in the IC have been looking for
> > methodologies and
> >       > > technologies to improve performance in the
> > collection and analysis of
> >       > > intelligence information.  In particular, the IC's
> > analytical community
> >       > > is looking to modeling and simulation tools to
> > revolutionize
> >       > > intelligence analysis, enabling the collective to
> > bridge information
> >       > > gaps and promote knowledge discovery across (or
> > perhaps despite)
> >       > > intellectual, political, and organizational boundaries.
> >       > >
> >       > > This situation is not dissimilar to the crisis that
> > the nuclear weapons
> >       > > laboratories faced in the early 1990s, when the
> > Hatfield Amendment
> >       > > killed the testing program and the DOE introduced
> > Science Based
> >       > > Stockpile Stewardship as the new paradigm for
> > assessing and certifying
> >       > > the safety, security, and reliability of the
> > nuclear stockpile.  In
> >       > > particular, both the nuclear weapons and
> > intelligence communities have
> >       > > invested in modeling and simulation technologies
> > for their capacity to
> >       > > synthesize large amounts of information in
> > relatively short periods of
> >       > > time, and for their predictive promise.  However,
> > as the nuclear weapons
> >       > > laboratories have discovered, predictive capability
> > is a hard thing to
> >       > > attain, and modeling and simulation tools often
> > raise more questions
> >       > > than they answer.
> >       > >
> >       > > In this talk, we argue that the intelligence
> > community and the nuclear
> >       > > weapons laboratories are facing remarkably similar
> > challenges in
> >       > > developing, assessing, and integrating modeling and
> > simulation tools
> >       > > into their mission activities.  In particular,
> > epistemological issues
> >       > > that tend to remain latent in academic research
> > environments get thrown
> >       > > into high relief when information generated by
> > modeling and simulation
> >       > > tools contributes to high consequence decisions. We
> > illustrate this
> >       > > point by reviewing research on modeling and
> > simulation, knowledge
> >       > > production, and prediction in economics, weather
> > forecasting, climate
> >       > > modeling.   We then present case studies from the
> > nuclear weapons
> >       > > programs and
> >       > > the intelligence community, both of which reveal
> > the close coupling
> >       > > between technology and organizational dynamics that
> > characterizes
> >       > > modeling and simulation in high-consequence
> > decision making.
> >       > >
> >       > > This talk is the outcome of two years' worth of
> > discussion and
> >       > > collaboration between Trucano, a mathematician who
> > has spent his career
> >       > > in computational physics at Sandia National
> > Laboratories; and McNamara,
> >       > > a cultural anthropologist who has studied knowledge
> > production in both
> >       > > the nuclear weapons and the intelligence
> > communities. All topics will be
> >       > > discussed at the OUO level.
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > > --------------------------------------------------------
> >       > >
> >       > > editors note: I had to look up "OUO"
> >       > >
> >       > > If you enjoy the Oxford University Orchestra, this
> > talk may be perfect
> >       > > for you.
> >       > >
> >       > > Or perhaps you're a fan of OUO, an ex
> > Zimbabwe-Legit Hip Hop band that
> >       > > recently dropped some heat on Hollywood Basic a
> > year ago. Founded by
> >       > > Akim the Funk Buddha, Dumi Right and their cousin Pep.
> >       > > http://www.africasgateway.com/article-print-295.html
> >       > >
> >       > > Or it's "Of Unknown Origin" though we assume Laura
> > and Tim created the
> >       > > talk...
> >       > >
> >       > > okay, it's quite probably "Official Use Only":
> > identifying certain
> >       > > unclassified but sensitive Department of Energy
> > information that may be
> >       > > exempt from public release under the Freedom of
> > Information Act
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > > ============================================================
> >       > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> >       > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's
> > College lectures, archives,
> >       > > unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > >
> >       > > ============================================================
> >       > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> >       > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> >       > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at
> > http://www.friam.org
> >       >
> >       > --
> >       > Hasta pronto
> >       >
> >       > Alfredo Covaleda V?lez
> >       > ---------------------------------------------
> >       > Compre sus libros en
> >       > http://www.loslibrosusados.com
> >       > http://www.bibliotienda.com <http://www.bibliotienda.com>
> >       > ---------------------------------------------
> >       >
> >       > ============================================================
> >       > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> >       > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> >       > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> >       >
> >
> >
> >       --
> >       Giles Bowkett
> >       http://www.gilesgoatboy.org
> >
> >       ============================================================
> >       FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> >       Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> >       lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at
> > http://www.friam.org <http://www.friam.org>
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

--
Giles Bowkett
http://www.gilesgoatboy.org