LIES, DAMN LIES, AND....

[Joshua Thorp]

...Statistics

Interesting blog piece on bias and data massaging in political  
science articles.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009531.php

[Douglas Roberts-2]

It must be working for the Republicans.  Bush's approval rating popped back
up to 44% recently.  I contend that if that many people actually approve of
Bush, then America deserves him.

On 9/20/06, Joshua Thorp <jthorp at redfish.com> wrote:

>
> ...Statistics
>
> Interesting blog piece on bias and data massaging in political
> science articles.
>
> http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009531.php
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>

--
Doug Roberts, RTI International
droberts at rti.org
doug at parrot-farm.net
505-455-7333 - Office
505-670-8195 - Cell
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[Joshua Thorp]

I know that I can easily reveal my statitics ignorance here,  but why  
can a site like:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

not have any mention of confidence intervals,  or standard error  
numbers?  The headline is Bush up 1 point.  In a survey of 1500  
people,  is that news or noise?


On Sep 20, 2006, at 10:42 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:

> It must be working for the Republicans.  Bush's approval rating  
> popped back up to 44% recently.  I contend that if that many people  
> actually approve of Bush, then America deserves him.
>
> On 9/20/06, Joshua Thorp <jthorp at redfish.com> wrote:
> ...Statistics
>
> Interesting blog piece on bias and data massaging in political
> science articles.
>
> http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/ 
> 2006_09/009531.php
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
>
> --
> Doug Roberts, RTI International
> droberts at rti.org
> doug at parrot-farm.net
> 505-455-7333 - Office
> 505-670-8195 - Cell
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

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[Bill Eldridge]

Quite the long lasting bounce - reminds me of Phil's .sig.
To answer your question, the Rasmussen confidence level is on the middle
frame down at the bottom, not too obvious:

    The national telephone survey of 1,500 Adults was conducted by
    Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling
    error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
    Methodology <http://www.rasmussenreports.com/methodology.htm>.


*Bush Job Approval*
/Sept 2005 - Current /
  Approve Disapprove
Sep 20 41 56
Sep 19 40 58
Sep 18 41 58
Sep 17 41 57
Sep 16 44 54
Sep 15 45 53
Sep 14 47 50
Sep 13 45 52
Sep 12 44 54
Sep 11 41 57
Sep 10 42 56
Sep 9 42 56
Sep 8 42 55



Historical perspective at http://mediamatters.org/columns/200609190002   
via Atrios at Eschaton:

    Here then, is some much-needed historical perspective to put Bush's
standing in context:

* According to Gallup, on the eve of President John F. Kennedy's 1963
assassination, he was suffering the worst job-approval ratings of his
presidency -- 58 percent.
* In 1968, when the war in Vietnam was claiming hundreds of U.S.
casualties each week, President Lyndon Johnson was considered so
unpopular that he didn't even run for re-election. Johnson's average
Gallup approval rating for that year was 43 percent.
* When Reagan's second term was rocked by the Iran-Contra scandal, his
ratings plummeted, all the way down to 43 percent.
* This year, according to the Gallup numbers, Bush has averaged an
approval rating of 37 percent.

Joshua Thorp wrote:

> I know that I can easily reveal my statitics ignorance here,  but why
> can a site like:
> http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm
>
> not have any mention of confidence intervals,  or standard error
> numbers?  The headline is Bush up 1 point.  In a survey of 1500
> people,  is that news or noise?
>
>
> On Sep 20, 2006, at 10:42 AM, Douglas Roberts wrote:
>
>> It must be working for the Republicans.  Bush's approval rating
>> popped back up to 44% recently.  I contend that if that many people
>> actually approve of Bush, then America deserves him.
>>
>> On 9/20/06, *Joshua Thorp* <jthorp at redfish.com
>> <mailto:jthorp at redfish.com>> wrote:
>>
>>     ...Statistics
>>
>>     Interesting blog piece on bias and data massaging in political
>>     science articles.
>>
>>     http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009531.php
>>     <http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009531.php>
>>
>>
>>     ============================================================
>>     FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>     Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>>     lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Doug Roberts, RTI International
>> droberts at rti.org <mailto:droberts at rti.org>
>> doug at parrot-farm.net <mailto:doug at parrot-farm.net>
>> 505-455-7333 - Office
>> 505-670-8195 - Cell
>> ============================================================
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org

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