I am accepting wagers
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Most people live somewhere in the middle of their organization. Yet many people aspire to be managers or deciders or some other sort of Important Person. The status, or at least the money, is important to them. To fulfill this aspiration, these people need have people to manage. At the same time, these decider people are of about the same level of talent, knowledge, and intelligence of the people they manage. The easiest thing to do is to create inefficiency. Then there are more jobs and they can actually manage the complexity of the problems that they are tasked with solving. Everyone wins! The organization itself may not win, because it becomes inefficient, but the employees and managers can always move to another organization. Other organizations, like government labs, have budgets that go on forever. This is the best situation for people that want somehow to move up in an organization. There is no driver to leave or to get smarter about work.
-----Original Message----- From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West Sent: Monday, March 15, 2021 7:39 AM To: [hidden email] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] I am accepting wagers I started as a programmer (COBOL for business apps / Assembler for internals) in 1968. I have held almost every title up to and including CIO. I was a professor of, essentially, management information systems but also taught the non-math CS stuff, like O/S, programming, database, and AI. Spent the last part of my career making wild and fantastical claims about how information systems could be orders of magnitude simpler and therefore easier, faster, and cheaper to develop, with no loss of quality. The jeers were loud and rude. Only had two opportunities to prove, in the real world, I was "right." One a national company that produced forms (loan applications, disclosure forms, mortgage documents, etc) for banks in all fifty states. They employed 50 attorneys to review changes in law and generate requirements for programmers, and fifty programmers using C++. My system, written in the then still quite primitive Smalltalk) reduced the programming staff to five. The other was an insurance company rewriting and updating a legacy system supporting sales and management of commercial insurance (car fleets, boats, commerical real estate). They planned a 500 million, five-year, 1000 developer effort with multiple subcontractors and off-shore teams. Ended up being an 18 month project with a third of the development staff (still some off shore, and one subcontractor) at a cost of 20+ million. In both efforts the company had to fight a continual rear guard effort by traditionalists. In the case of the banker forms company that effort was lost and last I heard they were up to 100 Java programmers. Not a brag — I have no idea if my approach could be promulgated across the industry with similar effect. Certainly am not claiming some kind of philosopher stone for simplicity and low cost. Just anecdotal support for Jon. davew On Sun, Mar 14, 2021, at 11:41 PM, jon zingale wrote: > Ha, *bringing some more reality* is what I listen for to know when I > have some naysayers on the ropes. Much of the last decade of my career > has been working to reconcile data whose interfaces radically vary. > Claiming it to be an 11 billion dollar problem is a rhetorical move > that smells of > *abstraction* rather than *reality* to me. Barry states the problem > clearly, but it isn't IMO an insurmountable problem, just an > intentional one with lots of particularities. At least one small > start-up that I wrote for managed a similar problem surprisingly well > (up to Google's data standards, for instance), and sold for orders of magnitudes less than the number above. > Stating the problem is great, working the problem is best, but the > rest is simply whining. > > > > -- > Sent from: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn > GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ |
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In reply to this post by Prof David West
Sorry, looks like it has been done 😳. It might be interesting to see how close to useful this comes. —Barry. On 13 Mar 2021, at 13:05, Prof David West wrote:
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It doesn’t seem to say much, just links to the usual state authorities and other crowdsourcing efforts. But look at their young, bright shining faces? From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of
Barry MacKichan Sorry, looks like it has been done
😳. It might be interesting to see how close to useful this comes. —Barry. On 13 Mar 2021, at 13:05, Prof David West wrote:
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In reply to this post by Prof David West
It's important in conversations like these to recognize that preconceptions of some whatever task are *usually* wrong. So rather than argue "2 kids in a dorm could do it in a weekend" versus "it requires Oracle and $10M", or anywhere in between, it's best to think with a little humility. My own personal approach is scient-ish. The first task isn't even to state the problem. The first task is to study the domain. Lay out the preeminent usage patterns, *then* discuss which tools in our kit might apply to which usage pattern.
If 1 use case is "sample rocks on Mars" and another is "design a UI your grandma can use" [⛧], then the development method(s) will differ. The main problem is that tech (and government, and pretty much everything else) is dominated by posturing know-it-alls who can't admit that they don't know much at all. With that, I'll admit that I have zero idea how difficult such a site will be. Were it Trump who signaled this plan, I'd believe it was pulled out of Kushner's hat with no justification. But my guess is Biden's got some team who came up with it and, if I cared, the first thing I'd do is check their creds and read the plan. There's a lot of material to use for such: https://github.com/uswds/uswds Final thought: While Biden clearly *used* to be solidly neoliberal, implying an inference like Daves, that he'd press for a government contract to someone like Oracle or whatever, he seems to be leaning a bit toward having the government work directly on big (public benefit) efforts. So I wouldn't put it past him to have the USDS do it all this time. [⛧] I had to click "View More" ... like a thousand times on Yeo and Lin's site to get to Washington. Pfft. Yeah, yeah, I didn't follow their preconceived usage pattern. So sue me. On 3/15/21 7:38 AM, Prof David West wrote: > I started as a programmer (COBOL for business apps / Assembler for internals) in 1968. I have held almost every title up to and including CIO. I was a professor of, essentially, management information systems but also taught the non-math CS stuff, like O/S, programming, database, and AI. > > Spent the last part of my career making wild and fantastical claims about how information systems could be orders of magnitude simpler and therefore easier, faster, and cheaper to develop, with no loss of quality. The jeers were loud and rude. > > Only had two opportunities to prove, in the real world, I was "right." One a national company that produced forms (loan applications, disclosure forms, mortgage documents, etc) for banks in all fifty states. They employed 50 attorneys to review changes in law and generate requirements for programmers, and fifty programmers using C++. My system, written in the then still quite primitive Smalltalk) reduced the programming staff to five. The other was an insurance company rewriting and updating a legacy system supporting sales and management of commercial insurance (car fleets, boats, commerical real estate). They planned a 500 million, five-year, 1000 developer effort with multiple subcontractors and off-shore teams. Ended up being an 18 month project with a third of the development staff (still some off shore, and one subcontractor) at a cost of 20+ million. > > In both efforts the company had to fight a continual rear guard effort by traditionalists. In the case of the banker forms company that effort was lost and last I heard they were up to 100 Java programmers. > > Not a brag — I have no idea if my approach could be promulgated across the industry with similar effect. Certainly am not claiming some kind of philosopher stone for simplicity and low cost. > > Just anecdotal support for Jon. > > davew > > > On Sun, Mar 14, 2021, at 11:41 PM, jon zingale wrote: >> Ha, *bringing some more reality* is what I listen for to know when I have >> some naysayers on the ropes. Much of the last decade of my career has been >> working to reconcile data whose interfaces radically vary. Claiming it to be >> an 11 billion dollar problem is a rhetorical move that smells of >> *abstraction* rather than *reality* to me. Barry states the problem clearly, >> but it isn't IMO an insurmountable problem, just an intentional one with >> lots of particularities. At least one small start-up that I wrote for >> managed a similar problem surprisingly well (up to Google's data standards, >> for instance), and sold for orders of magnitudes less than the number above. >> Stating the problem is great, working the problem is best, but the rest is >> simply whining. -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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This post was updated on .
To be fair, this thread began with DaveW accepting wagers. I expect there to
be bluffing, chesting and posturing. I expect stoggies, jacks to be wild, and for guns to be checked at the door. -- Sent from: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ |
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That's a shame. Again we end up in the dominance-submission, lie to get what you want, fake-it-till-you-make-it, conflict-driven game we see all around us. [sigh]
On 3/15/21 12:07 PM, jon zingale wrote: > To be fair, this thread began with DaveW accepting wagers. I expect there to > be bluffing, chesting and posturing. I expect stoggies, jack's to be wild, > and for guns to be checked at the door. -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Pobre? The thread has me thinking about the relationship between *existence
proof* and *anecdotal evidence*: player 1: There are no integers between 1 and 5. player 2: I found the number 3. player 1: That's just anecdotal evidence. I worked quite a bit on a variant of the problem outlined, and one at nearly the same scale. I spent a lot of time on it, did pretty well for myself, and did fairly well at solving the problem within laudable tolerances. Until we are talking real money on the table, I think it is just fine to play. The deeper issues you are pointing to will require a more sober discussion. As you know, I will gladly have that discussion if that's what is warranted. -- Sent from: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ |
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In reply to this post by gepr
I'm not sure this adds anything. As I've said before I was a one of the first people to be hired by Bell Labs to work specifically on No. 5 ESS. During my interview they told me they wanted to hire 125 computer science PhDs. The year I finished there were 108 who graduated in the entire country. Although my dissertation was in numerical methods my first assignment was in software administration methodology. As the project grew every day consisted of two 3-hour meetings in the morning and two in the afternoon. These focussed mainly on the interfaces between the various subsystems. This was the first ESS to be developed in C and with multiple processors. Several times I heard comments like "if we could get the right 15 people in a room together we could get this done." After a year and a half of this I decided to head for academia. If you read about 5ESS on Wikipedia you will learn that it is widely deployed in telephone networks worldwide including cell networks. It has 100,000,000 lines of C code and 100,000,000 lines of header files. I'm skeptical about the "15 people". Frank --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 1:40 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <[hidden email]> wrote: That's a shame. Again we end up in the dominance-submission, lie to get what you want, fake-it-till-you-make-it, conflict-driven game we see all around us. [sigh] - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ |
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It does. Many of us have had hands-on experience building the kind of tool Biden proposed. The trick is that we, as pattern recognition devices, tend to think our experiences are generalizable. Whoever suggested finding the right 15 people committed that sin. Your doubt is healthy. But while doubt is a good servant, it's a bad master.
It's entirely plausible that a couple of kids could put this thing together, well below $10m. But it's also plausible it'll take multiple millions to do it well. I don't know. I'll have more data after they announce who's doing the work and what requirements they intend to satisfy. Until then, anecdotes serve nobody but the story-tellers' egos. On 3/15/21 1:00 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > I'm not sure this adds anything. > > As I've said before I was a one of the first people to be hired by Bell Labs to work specifically on No. 5 ESS. During my interview they told me they wanted to hire 125 computer science PhDs. The year I finished there were 108 who graduated in the entire country. Although my dissertation was in numerical methods my first assignment was in software administration methodology. > > As the project grew every day consisted of two 3-hour meetings in the morning and two in the afternoon. These focussed mainly on the interfaces between the various subsystems. This was the first ESS to be developed in C and with multiple processors. > > Several times I heard comments like "if we could get the right 15 people in a room together we could get this done." After a year and a half of this I decided to head for academia. > > If you read about 5ESS on Wikipedia you will learn that it is widely deployed in telephone networks worldwide including cell networks. It has 100,000,000 lines of C code and 100,000,000 lines of header files. I'm skeptical about the "15 people". -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Well said, for the most part. The generalizations *do* serve a purpose, the
anecdotes as well. From my perspective, performance paralysis is alive and well in our culture and often I am dismayed when for any given subject an individual attempts expertise-passing by claiming impossibility. But hey, why not, it's easy to do and supports not having to do something. Some of us have cushy positions taking up space in institutions, and we like our fast cars and that our kids are getting into the best schools. If I can keep all of that going with minimal output, hot dog, what a bonus! I suppose if something *really* needs done, well, we could always hire a Russian. Generalizing and applying abstractions is obviously flawed, but it is also obviously useful. If we cannot even point to the places where similar things have been done before, what are we doing? -- Sent from: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ |
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Yeah, but the arrogance lies in the word "similar". Is the Yeo and Lin site all that's needed? It took me to WAs "Phase Finder" just fine. (I already knew about it from my GP's recommendation. But it was nice to see the breadcrumbs.) But WA is, I think, ahead of the curve. It's the Feds' obligation to care for even the least techie or poorest citizen, regardless of what state they live in. There's a huge difference between "health care" and "public health". I'd argue that *any* project executed by *any* for profit corporation will come at a public health task with the wrong lens, much like the takeover of our armed forces by over-paid private contractors who can't even put up a non-toxic tent ... or even the recent shunt of Harvard's plan to open-source their vaccine. Back when I worked with the Army, they had some kind of catchphrase that I've forgotten about how easy the other branches had it, what with their nicely specific and particular missions. The Army has to do everything, everywhere, with everyone.
But it doesn't matter what my preconceptions are about mission creep and public health. Until someone tells me specifically what they *want* to do, there's no way to establish a similarity criterion. If you think you have a similarity criterion, it's probably wrong. On 3/15/21 2:30 PM, jon zingale wrote: > If we cannot even point to the places where similar things > have been done before, what are we doing? -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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Olivia Adams built an appointment site for Massachusetts as did Huge Ma for New York. (don't have links at the moment). I am pretty sure that 50 $1 million sites would be far superior to one $100 million Federal site. Probably all of them could be up and running in a couple of weeks — parallel development. davew On Mon, Mar 15, 2021, at 3:45 PM, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote: > Yeah, but the arrogance lies in the word "similar". Is the Yeo and Lin > site all that's needed? It took me to WAs "Phase Finder" just fine. (I > already knew about it from my GP's recommendation. But it was nice to > see the breadcrumbs.) But WA is, I think, ahead of the curve. It's the > Feds' obligation to care for even the least techie or poorest citizen, > regardless of what state they live in. There's a huge difference > between "health care" and "public health". I'd argue that *any* project > executed by *any* for profit corporation will come at a public health > task with the wrong lens, much like the takeover of our armed forces by > over-paid private contractors who can't even put up a non-toxic tent > ... or even the recent shunt of Harvard's plan to open-source their > vaccine. Back when I worked with the Army, they had some kind of > catchphrase that I've forgotten about how easy the other branches had > it, what with their nicely specific and particular missions. The Army > has to do everything, everywhere, with everyone. > > But it doesn't matter what my preconceptions are about mission creep > and public health. Until someone tells me specifically what they *want* > to do, there's no way to establish a similarity criterion. If you think > you have a similarity criterion, it's probably wrong. > > On 3/15/21 2:30 PM, jon zingale wrote: > > If we cannot even point to the places where similar things > > have been done before, what are we doing? > > > -- > ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ |
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In my ignorance, I'd tend to agree. Local governments have a local obligation and, by virtue of their locality, have a better chance to meet local needs.
Regardless, anyone who cares might find out more at the meeting on Thursday: https://digital.gov/event/2021/03/18/uswds-monthly-call-march-2021/ They just might talk a little about this. But I really don't know. On 3/15/21 2:50 PM, Prof David West wrote: > *Olivia Adams* built an appointment site for Massachusetts as did *Huge Ma* for New York. (don't have links at the moment). > > I am pretty sure that 50 $1 million sites would be far superior to one $100 million Federal site. Probably all of them could be up and running in a couple of weeks — parallel development. -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by gepr
Sure, who *isn't* wrong. That you are interested in the question, as a
question at all, leaves you out of the region of my angst. Additionally, I almost always interpret you as meaning, "Go for it, so long as you doubt". Though, to display here an ontological game involving an infinite tower of nested belief-doubt objects would take us far afield. Dave, what was the wager again? -- Sent from: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ |
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In reply to this post by gepr
Sorry. That was Oxford, in England, not Harvard. [sigh] I'm too old to post without a fact checker.
On 3/15/21 2:45 PM, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote: > ... or even the recent shunt of Harvard's plan to open-source their vaccine. -- ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
uǝʃƃ ⊥ glen
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In reply to this post by Prof David West
With the understanding that I am not talking about any specific project but rather about generalities, I can point out how much effort you could save with shared code — kill 50 (55 including territories) birds with one stone. Especially if that code is built with tinker toy modules. I think the real problem is the interface between the project (clean, modern, elegant) and the world of data it is trying to unify (diverse, some clean and elegant, some not). Remember the 20-80 rule. We try to hire the 20%; the 80% go off to write portals to state taxation and data sites. (Don’t get my wife started on this; she handles the various state taxes such as sales tax, unemployment, etc. for two states. The web portals are frequently incomprehensible and changing.) A few months ago I read that one of the problems with gathering Covid statistics is that in some hospitals, the data was being sent by having a person print out a report from the hospital’s system and re-key the information in the central system. The clean and elegant solution would require a standard format for the input data, but that breaks when it meets the real world. Assuming Biden’s system will have records for each vaccination appointment, the amount of data is orders of magnitude greater than in the Covid case. I’ll take the wager (I’d prefer a microbrew) but the likelihood of the two of us being in the same place at the same time is probably pretty low. We could probably have a drink on vFriam, but it is a bit early in the day for that. That said, I’m not clear on what the criteria for determining who wins the bet are. —Barry On 15 Mar 2021, at 17:50, Prof David West wrote:
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In reply to this post by gepr
Don’t worry about it. I’m outsourcing my memory now, to Google. On 16 Mar 2021, at 10:58, uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ wrote:
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https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/17/1020811/better-tech-government-pandemic-united-states/ -- rec -- On Tue, Mar 16, 2021 at 12:15 PM Barry MacKichan <[hidden email]> wrote:
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