Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

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Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

glen e. p. ropella-2

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Game_theorists_hope_to_solve_worlds_crises_999.html

The extent to which some model authors trust their own models is very
frightening.

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Robert Holmes
On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 8:17 AM, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:

<snip>
The extent to which some model authors trust their own models is very
frightening.

There *has* to be some joke here around auto-rhetoric asphyxiation...

-- R 


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Douglas Roberts-2
Oh, c'mon Robert.  Don't leave us hanging...

;-]

On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 10:23 AM, Robert Holmes <[hidden email]> wrote:
On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 8:17 AM, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:

<snip>

The extent to which some model authors trust their own models is very
frightening.

There *has* to be some joke here around auto-rhetoric asphyxiation...

-- R 




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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Nick Thompson
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
All models are wrong; models are designed to be wrong.  They couldnt possibly do any good if they weren;t wrong. 
 
It's just that some models are wronger than others.
 
n
 
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([hidden email])
http://www.cusf.org [City University of Santa Fe]
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: 12/2/2009 10:25:02 AM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 8:17 AM, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:

<snip>
The extent to which some model authors trust their own models is very
frightening.

There *has* to be some joke here around auto-rhetoric asphyxiation...

-- R 


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

glen e. p. ropella-2
Quoting Nicholas Thompson circa 09-12-02 09:48 AM:
> All models are wrong; models are designed to be wrong.  They couldnt possibly do any good if they weren;t wrong.  
>
> It's just that some models are wronger than others.

Oh, the situation is a lot worse than that.  It's not that some models
are more wrong than others.  It's that models are rhetorical devices.
When you meet a person who really _believes_ her own rhetoric to the
extent that they are convicted, committed, and unwaveringly confident in
their own rhetoric ... well, then you KNOW you've got a certifiable
WACKO on your hands.  Following their consulting would be like following
Jim Jones to Guyana ... like following Marshall Applewhite to Rancho
Santa Fe.

At least with your run-of-the-mill televangelist, you get the sense that
they're just hucksters trying to get others to believe rhetoric they,
themselves, don't believe.  I'll take a snake-oil salesman over a True
Believer any day!

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Douglas Roberts-2
Well, speaking of models being wrong, check this out:

The reason the East Anglia data matter is that computer models have been erected upon them, which have been incorporated into governmental and U.N. reports, which in turn have become the basis for actual and proposed government policies. So all this amounts to a prelude: the important questions domestically are whether the Senate approves the cap and trade bill next year and what happens with the EPA's efforts to regulate carbon dioxide. Internationally, the question centers on the fate of the Copenhagen summit.

This is from the recent CBS news article about the growing "Climategate" fiasco:

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/12/02/taking_liberties/entry5860171.shtml?tag=cbsnewsTwoColLowerPromoArea;morenews

In the spirit of full disclosure: the data that all of my models use is always impeccably verifiable (as are all of the bugs in the code).

--Doug

On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 11:05 AM, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:
Quoting Nicholas Thompson circa 09-12-02 09:48 AM:
> All models are wrong; models are designed to be wrong.  They couldnt possibly do any good if they weren;t wrong.
>
> It's just that some models are wronger than others.

Oh, the situation is a lot worse than that.  It's not that some models
are more wrong than others.  It's that models are rhetorical devices.
When you meet a person who really _believes_ her own rhetoric to the
extent that they are convicted, committed, and unwaveringly confident in
their own rhetoric ... well, then you KNOW you've got a certifiable
WACKO on your hands.  Following their consulting would be like following
Jim Jones to Guyana ... like following Marshall Applewhite to Rancho
Santa Fe.

At least with your run-of-the-mill televangelist, you get the sense that
they're just hucksters trying to get others to believe rhetoric they,
themselves, don't believe.  I'll take a snake-oil salesman over a True
Believer any day!

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com




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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Marcus G. Daniels
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
glen e. p. ropella wrote:
> It's not that some models
> are more wrong than others.  It's that models are rhetorical devices.
> When you meet a person who really _believes_ her own rhetoric to the
> extent that they are convicted, committed, and unwaveringly confident in
> their own rhetoric ... well, then you KNOW you've got a certifiable
> WACKO on your hands.  Following their consulting would be like following
> Jim Jones to Guyana ...
I think that in these circles if game theory makes propaganda more
compelling that is all that matters.
Why describe something when you can influence it?

Marcus

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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Russ Abbott
Lots of strong words and sentiments.

Glen, do you distinguish between perceptions/[perspectives, models and scientific theories? Do you think of people who believe enough in quantum theory, general relativity, biological evolution, even Newtonian dynamics to act on it as certifiably WACKO? That's not to say that these theories won't ever be revised, overturned, etc. But to call people who act on what those theories predict WACKO seems extreme. 

What about the model you have in your head as you cross the street? That model included cars coming at you. Not acting on that model seems more WACKO than acting on it?

I think it would be useful to refine your statement a bit. Waiting for the light to change at a busy intersection (because of your model of how traffic lights, traffic, etc. work--which is not always the way it is but which works often enough and which may include drunk drivers and cases in which cars run red lights) seems more sane than following Jim Jones to Guyana.

-- Russ



On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 10:29 AM, Marcus G. Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
glen e. p. ropella wrote:
It's not that some models
are more wrong than others.  It's that models are rhetorical devices.
When you meet a person who really _believes_ her own rhetoric to the
extent that they are convicted, committed, and unwaveringly confident in
their own rhetoric ... well, then you KNOW you've got a certifiable
WACKO on your hands.  Following their consulting would be like following
Jim Jones to Guyana ...
I think that in these circles if game theory makes propaganda more compelling that is all that matters.
Why describe something when you can influence it?
Marcus


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Nick Thompson
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
So, I live in a pre keplerian village.  On a hill in the middle of the village is a monastery where lives a monk who rings a bell at sunrise every day.  A model explanation circulates around the village that the sun is attached to the Monk's bellrope and that it is his ringing the bell that raises the sun.  Many people in the village take this model to be "true" (wetftm) and conduct their lives in accordance with it.  Are they WACKO? 
 
Just asking. 
 
N
 
 
 
Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([hidden email])
http://www.cusf.org [City University of Santa Fe]
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: 12/2/2009 2:19:49 PM
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Lots of strong words and sentiments.

Glen, do you distinguish between perceptions/[perspectives, models and scientific theories? Do you think of people who believe enough in quantum theory, general relativity, biological evolution, even Newtonian dynamics to act on it as certifiably WACKO? That's not to say that these theories won't ever be revised, overturned, etc. But to call people who act on what those theories predict WACKO seems extreme. 

What about the model you have in your head as you cross the street? That model included cars coming at you. Not acting on that model seems more WACKO than acting on it?

I think it would be useful to refine your statement a bit. Waiting for the light to change at a busy intersection (because of your model of how traffic lights, traffic, etc. work--which is not always the way it is but which works often enough and which may include drunk drivers and cases in which cars run red lights) seems more sane than following Jim Jones to Guyana.

-- Russ



On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 10:29 AM, Marcus G. Daniels <[hidden email]> wrote:
glen e. p. ropella wrote:
It's not that some models
are more wrong than others.  It's that models are rhetorical devices.
When you meet a person who really _believes_ her own rhetoric to the
extent that they are convicted, committed, and unwaveringly confident in
their own rhetoric ... well, then you KNOW you've got a certifiable
WACKO on your hands.  Following their consulting would be like following
Jim Jones to Guyana ...
I think that in these circles if game theory makes propaganda more compelling that is all that matters.
Why describe something when you can influence it?
Marcus


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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

glen e. p. ropella-2
In reply to this post by Russ Abbott
Quoting Russ Abbott circa 09-12-02 01:18 PM:
> Glen, do you distinguish between perceptions/[perspectives, models and
> scientific theories?

Yes.  I laid out many of the differences recently in the thread about
models vs. rhetoric.

> Do you think of people who believe enough in quantum
> theory, general relativity, biological evolution, even Newtonian dynamics to
> act on it as certifiably WACKO?

You're playing a shell game.  I did not say "believe ENOUGH", thereby
implying that they do NOT believe somewhat.  If someone leaves room for
reasonable doubt, then they're not a wacko, no.

And, since you list scientific theories, I can say that no scientist can
be called a scientist if they don't doubt the theories they act upon.
Doubt is necessary.  If you never doubt the truth of your pet belief,
then yes, you are a wacko.

> That's not to say that these theories won't
> ever be revised, overturned, etc. But to call people who act on what those
> theories predict WACKO seems extreme.

I didn't say that.  I even used a long-winded phrase to make it clear.
I said: "... to the extent that they are convicted, committed, and
unwaveringly confident in their own rhetoric ..."

You don't need to be a wacko to act on your beliefs.  But if you are
absolutely CERTAIN, with no doubt at all, that your beliefs are true and
nothing anyone around you says will ever shake your unwavering
confidence, then yes, you are a wacko.

> What about the model you have in your head as you cross the street? That
> model included cars coming at you. Not acting on that model seems more WACKO
> than acting on it?

Again, because I don't want you to miss my point, I'll say that I'm not
talking about reasonable people who doubt their beliefs from time to
time.  If you unwaveringly believe and are totally convinced of your
model of how cars, streets, and street crossings work, then yes you are
a wacko.  Even if you're model happens to BE true, you're still a wacko
because all sane people doubt themselves periodically.

But if you act on a belief that it's a very very very good idea to look
both ways before crossing because you MIGHT get hit, then no, that's not
the beliefs of a wacko.  It's very easy to doubt that you might get hit
by a car.  So, if you doubt yourself, you're not a wacko.

> I think it would be useful to refine your statement a bit. Waiting for the
> light to change at a busy intersection (because of your model of how traffic
> lights, traffic, etc. work--which is not always the way it is but which
> works often enough and which may include drunk drivers and cases in which
> cars run red lights) seems more sane than following Jim Jones to Guyana.

Again, you're playing a rhetorical shell game. I didn't say anything
about crossing the street or acting on a reasonable belief in your
models.  I explicitly (and took great pains to be explicit) that if you
are convinced and unwaveringly confident in your model, then you're a wacko.

I won't take advice from anyone who is so utterly convinced of their own
beliefs that no amount of data or rhetoric could ever change those
beliefs.  Such people ARE the equivalent of Jim Jones and Marshall
Applewhite.

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

glen e. p. ropella-2
In reply to this post by Nick Thompson
Quoting Nicholas Thompson circa 09-12-02 01:32 PM:
> So, I live in a pre keplerian village.  On a hill in the middle of
> the village is a monastery where lives a monk who rings a bell at
> sunrise every day.  A model explanation circulates around the village
> that the sun is attached to the Monk's bellrope and that it is his
> ringing the bell that raises the sun.  Many people in the village
> take this model to be "true" (wetftm) and conduct their lives in
> accordance with it.  Are they WACKO?

Just because they act as if they believe it doesn't mean they are
convicted to the belief.

In any distribution of people who act as if they believe something,
you'll find that some are true believers, some have doubts, and some
just act that way because it's socially the easiest/best thing to do.

Those that were true believers were wacko.  Those that sometimes doubted
the belief were sane.  Those that just did it because everyone else did
it were also sane (though perhaps weak-minded).

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Robert J. Cordingley
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
FWIW
"Doubt is the antidote to fanaticism" but I don't recall who wrote it in the NYT.  So I guess fanatic = wacko.
Robert C


glen e. p. ropella wrote:
Quoting Russ Abbott circa 09-12-02 01:18 PM:
  
Glen, do you distinguish between perceptions/[perspectives, models and
scientific theories?
    

Yes.  I laid out many of the differences recently in the thread about
models vs. rhetoric.

  
Do you think of people who believe enough in quantum
theory, general relativity, biological evolution, even Newtonian dynamics to
act on it as certifiably WACKO?
    

You're playing a shell game.  I did not say "believe ENOUGH", thereby
implying that they do NOT believe somewhat.  If someone leaves room for
reasonable doubt, then they're not a wacko, no.

And, since you list scientific theories, I can say that no scientist can
be called a scientist if they don't doubt the theories they act upon.
Doubt is necessary.  If you never doubt the truth of your pet belief,
then yes, you are a wacko.

  
That's not to say that these theories won't
ever be revised, overturned, etc. But to call people who act on what those
theories predict WACKO seems extreme.
    

I didn't say that.  I even used a long-winded phrase to make it clear.
I said: "... to the extent that they are convicted, committed, and
unwaveringly confident in their own rhetoric ..."

You don't need to be a wacko to act on your beliefs.  But if you are
absolutely CERTAIN, with no doubt at all, that your beliefs are true and
nothing anyone around you says will ever shake your unwavering
confidence, then yes, you are a wacko.

  
What about the model you have in your head as you cross the street? That
model included cars coming at you. Not acting on that model seems more WACKO
than acting on it?
    

Again, because I don't want you to miss my point, I'll say that I'm not
talking about reasonable people who doubt their beliefs from time to
time.  If you unwaveringly believe and are totally convinced of your
model of how cars, streets, and street crossings work, then yes you are
a wacko.  Even if you're model happens to BE true, you're still a wacko
because all sane people doubt themselves periodically.

But if you act on a belief that it's a very very very good idea to look
both ways before crossing because you MIGHT get hit, then no, that's not
the beliefs of a wacko.  It's very easy to doubt that you might get hit
by a car.  So, if you doubt yourself, you're not a wacko.

  
I think it would be useful to refine your statement a bit. Waiting for the
light to change at a busy intersection (because of your model of how traffic
lights, traffic, etc. work--which is not always the way it is but which
works often enough and which may include drunk drivers and cases in which
cars run red lights) seems more sane than following Jim Jones to Guyana.
    

Again, you're playing a rhetorical shell game. I didn't say anything
about crossing the street or acting on a reasonable belief in your
models.  I explicitly (and took great pains to be explicit) that if you
are convinced and unwaveringly confident in your model, then you're a wacko.

I won't take advice from anyone who is so utterly convinced of their own
beliefs that no amount of data or rhetoric could ever change those
beliefs.  Such people ARE the equivalent of Jim Jones and Marshall
Applewhite.

  

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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

glen e. p. ropella-2
Quoting Robert J. Cordingley circa 09-12-02 02:54 PM:
> "Doubt is the antidote to fanaticism" but I don't recall who wrote it in
> the NYT.  So I guess fanatic = wacko.

I'd say that a fanatic is a specific type of wacko, an enthusiastic
wacko that continually advocates for their pet beliefs.  A wacko might
be totally convinced that their pet belief is true but might not be very
_enthused_ about that belief.  Perhaps their commitment to the pet
belief leads them to continual states of paranoia, depression, or
isolation.  Then they're not a fanatic; but they're still wacko.  So
doubt is the antidote to many types of wacko, not just fanaticism.

It's also reasonable that a person can be a wacko without being totally
convinced, convicted, committed to some belief.  The most fun example
would be the impredicative wacko (a wacko who is wacko because they're
not wacko).   In my insistence that doubt and skepticism are the only
fundamental beliefs worth holding, you might be tempted to label me an
impredicative wacko.   But since I believe doubt and skepticism are
_incomplete_ truths, I don't really qualify.

OK.  I'll stop, now.  Sorry. ;-)

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Nick Thompson
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
Glen,

You wrote:

> Just because they act as if they believe it doesn't mean they are
> convicted to the belief.

Glen, I LIKED THIS.  I particularly liked it, though, because of the odd
usage of convicted (for convinced).  Was that a sllip of the fingers, or
perhaps you are starting a new meme?  

N

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([hidden email])
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
http://www.cusf.org [City University of Santa Fe]




> [Original Message]
> From: glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
> Date: 12/2/2009 3:04:04 PM
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Game theorists hope to solve world's crises
>
> Quoting Nicholas Thompson circa 09-12-02 01:32 PM:
> > So, I live in a pre keplerian village.  On a hill in the middle of
> > the village is a monastery where lives a monk who rings a bell at
> > sunrise every day.  A model explanation circulates around the village
> > that the sun is attached to the Monk's bellrope and that it is his
> > ringing the bell that raises the sun.  Many people in the village
> > take this model to be "true" (wetftm) and conduct their lives in
> > accordance with it.  Are they WACKO?
>
> Just because they act as if they believe it doesn't mean they are
> convicted to the belief.
>
> In any distribution of people who act as if they believe something,
> you'll find that some are true believers, some have doubts, and some
> just act that way because it's socially the easiest/best thing to do.
>
> Those that were true believers were wacko.  Those that sometimes doubted
> the belief were sane.  Those that just did it because everyone else did
> it were also sane (though perhaps weak-minded).
>
> --
> glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org



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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Nick Thompson
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
And then, there are the anti-wacko wackos.  

N

Nicholas S. Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Ethology,
Clark University ([hidden email])
http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
http://www.cusf.org [City University of Santa Fe]




> [Original Message]
> From: glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]>
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
> Date: 12/2/2009 4:35:01 PM
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Game theorists hope to solve world's crises
>
> Quoting Robert J. Cordingley circa 09-12-02 02:54 PM:
> > "Doubt is the antidote to fanaticism" but I don't recall who wrote it in
> > the NYT.  So I guess fanatic = wacko.
>
> I'd say that a fanatic is a specific type of wacko, an enthusiastic
> wacko that continually advocates for their pet beliefs.  A wacko might
> be totally convinced that their pet belief is true but might not be very
> _enthused_ about that belief.  Perhaps their commitment to the pet
> belief leads them to continual states of paranoia, depression, or
> isolation.  Then they're not a fanatic; but they're still wacko.  So
> doubt is the antidote to many types of wacko, not just fanaticism.
>
> It's also reasonable that a person can be a wacko without being totally
> convinced, convicted, committed to some belief.  The most fun example
> would be the impredicative wacko (a wacko who is wacko because they're
> not wacko).   In my insistence that doubt and skepticism are the only
> fundamental beliefs worth holding, you might be tempted to label me an
> impredicative wacko.   But since I believe doubt and skepticism are
> _incomplete_ truths, I don't really qualify.
>
> OK.  I'll stop, now.  Sorry. ;-)
>
> --
> glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com
>
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org



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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Russ Abbott
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
I guess it becomes almost tautological. Someone is wacko if they are "absolutely CERTAIN, with no doubt at all, that your beliefs are true and nothing anyone around you says will ever shake your unwavering confidence."

Wacko becomes more or less synonymous with mental rigidity.  I'm not sure I would use the term "wacko" for that. I would include in the category of wackos people whose beliefs vary from moment to moment for no apparent reason. 

But if we just focus on mental rigidity, that would presumably include most people of faith--by which I mean people who believe things that by definition are immune to evidential analysis. So anyone who hold a belief "on faith" is wacko according to your perspective. 

Some people, though, seem to be perfectly rational about most things in the world but still hold some things by faith.  What about them?  Does the fact that someone believes something by faith disqualify everything they say? Presumably not.  In asking that question I'm asking whether you would be willing to use as a consultant someone who has faith in something. The tricky part here is that you use someone as a consultant when the material about which the person is being consulted is too complex for you to understand. So you have to take that person's word for it.  You are not really equipped to determine whether his advice is correct -- or you wouldn't need him as a consultant.  So does that mean that every sincerely religious person disqualified in your view from being acceptable as a consultant?

But then what about atheists? Are they disqualified also because they believe that religious propositions are false?  But since these propositions are immune from evidential analysis that belief too is on faith.  One could argue that they don't believe religious propositions are false, only that they are meaningless. Is that better? Probably not good enough. They would have to say simply that they do not understand the religious propositions. Then they would not be holding a belief on faith.

Another aspect of the issue of mental rigidity: how rigid is rigid? Is there really anyone who is totally immune from having his beliefs changed?  I would suspect not. So there are probably not very many people in the world about whom on can be sure that absolutely nothing with ever change their beliefs.  So where does that leave us?

The category of wackos becomes vanishingly small.  I suspect that most of the people who followed Jim Jones to Guyana might have changed their minds if given enough of an opportunity.  As I recall, some tried to resist at the end.  What does one say about them?

-- Russ


On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 3:34 PM, glen e. p. ropella <[hidden email]> wrote:
Quoting Robert J. Cordingley circa 09-12-02 02:54 PM:
> "Doubt is the antidote to fanaticism" but I don't recall who wrote it in
> the NYT.  So I guess fanatic = wacko.

I'd say that a fanatic is a specific type of wacko, an enthusiastic
wacko that continually advocates for their pet beliefs.  A wacko might
be totally convinced that their pet belief is true but might not be very
_enthused_ about that belief.  Perhaps their commitment to the pet
belief leads them to continual states of paranoia, depression, or
isolation.  Then they're not a fanatic; but they're still wacko.  So
doubt is the antidote to many types of wacko, not just fanaticism.

It's also reasonable that a person can be a wacko without being totally
convinced, convicted, committed to some belief.  The most fun example
would be the impredicative wacko (a wacko who is wacko because they're
not wacko).   In my insistence that doubt and skepticism are the only
fundamental beliefs worth holding, you might be tempted to label me an
impredicative wacko.   But since I believe doubt and skepticism are
_incomplete_ truths, I don't really qualify.

OK.  I'll stop, now.  Sorry. ;-)

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

glen e. p. ropella-2
In reply to this post by Nick Thompson
Quoting Nicholas Thompson circa 09-12-02 04:06 PM:
> Glen, I LIKED THIS.  I particularly liked it, though, because of the odd
> usage of convicted (for convinced).  Was that a sllip of the fingers, or
> perhaps you are starting a new meme?  

Thanks.  I do it to highlight how stupid it is to put yourself in a
mental _jail_ ... to make yourself a mental convict by being convinced
of any one thing or another.

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Marcus G. Daniels
In reply to this post by Nick Thompson
Nicholas Thompson wrote:
> And then, there are the anti-wacko wackos.  
>  
And then, there are the
pretending-to-be-a-true-believer-to-pick-up-loyal-follower-wackos.  Like
half the Senate or that nice man on the 700 club.

Marcus

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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

glen e. p. ropella-2
In reply to this post by Russ Abbott
Quoting Russ Abbott circa 09-12-02 04:14 PM:
> I guess it becomes almost tautological. Someone is wacko if they are
> "absolutely CERTAIN, with no doubt at all, that your beliefs are true and
> nothing anyone around you says will ever shake your unwavering confidence."
>
> Wacko becomes more or less synonymous with mental rigidity.  I'm not sure I
> would use the term "wacko" for that. I would include in the category of
> wackos people whose beliefs vary from moment to moment for no apparent
> reason.

No.  It's not about mental rigidity.  It's about certainty.  One can be
rigid in their skepticism, for example.  But a skeptic is, almost by
definition, not a wacko.  Arrogance and hubris are examples of putting
just a little bit too much stock in one's own beliefs.  Wackos put
_complete_ stock in their own beliefs.  Rigidity is orthogonal to the
degree to which you believe your own rhetoric.

> But if we just focus on mental rigidity, that would presumably include most
> people of faith--by which I mean people who believe things that by
> definition are immune to evidential analysis. So anyone who hold a belief
> "on faith" is wacko according to your perspective.

No.  Only people who are _certain_ about their faith are wackos.  If
they never doubt their belief, then they're wackos.  Many of the people
of faith I know doubt themselves on a regular basis.  This means they're
sane.

> So does that mean that every sincerely
> religious person disqualified in your view from being acceptable as a
> consultant?

No.  Only people who never doubt their own opinions are disqualified.
Anyone, including the most radical weirdos I've ever met are qualified
consultants as long as they caveat their opinions with something like:
"On the other hand ..." or "Of course I could be wrong ...".

> But then what about atheists? Are they disqualified also because they
> believe that religious propositions are false?

Atheists who never doubt themselves are disqualified.  For example, I
would never take advice from Richard Dawkins or PZ Myers on metaphysical
issues.  They're clearly unqualified to render opinions on the subject.
 Why?  Because they never express doubt of their own opinions.

On the other hand, I may well take advice from, say, a priest on quantum
physics, as long as he caveats his opinions with "Of course, I could be
wrong."  Even if I didn't take the advice, I'd at least listen to him.

> But since these propositions
> are immune from evidential analysis that belief too is on faith.  One could
> argue that they don't believe religious propositions are false, only that
> they are meaningless. Is that better? Probably not good enough. They would
> have to say simply that they do not understand the religious propositions.
> Then they would not be holding a belief on faith.

Again, you're playing a shell game with the words.  If an atheist claims
that metaphysical propositions are meaningless, and she is CERTAIN that
she is right, then she's a wacko.  If, however, she admits that they
might have some meaning she just doesn't understand, then she's not a wacko.

> Another aspect of the issue of mental rigidity: how rigid is rigid? Is there
> really anyone who is totally immune from having his beliefs changed?  I
> would suspect not. So there are probably not very many people in the world
> about whom on can be sure that absolutely nothing with ever change their
> beliefs.  So where does that leave us?

That leaves your focus on rigidity at a dead end.  But I'm not talking
about rigidity.  I'm talking about certainty.  I actually know people
whose minds change on a regular basis.  One time I meet them, they're a
new ager fixated... CERTAIN ... that yoga will save your life.  The next
time I meet them they're in a snake cult or speaking in tongues CERTAIN
that they now have access to the truth.  Well, these people are wackos
even though they're not very rigid.

> The category of wackos becomes vanishingly small.  I suspect that most of
> the people who followed Jim Jones to Guyana might have changed their minds
> if given enough of an opportunity.  As I recall, some tried to resist at the
> end.  What does one say about them?

No.  The category of wackos is actually very large.  I am surprised
almost every day by new wackos.  Wackos who think they KNOW how to
proceed in Afghanistan.  Wackos who are CERTAIN that a public healthcare
option is an instance of socialism and wackos who are certain that if we
don't "reform" healthcare we're all gonna suffer some horrible end.
Wackos who are certain that anthropogenic global warming is true and
wackos who are certain it's a hoax.  I have family members who are
certain that Latinos are lazier than whites and blacks are genetically
more athletic than other races.  And they'll claim this even after I
point out that they don't even know what a "gene" is!  I call "wacko".
[grin]

Of course, there's a question as to whether or not someone is a wacko
about everything.  E.g. Perhaps I can trust Richard Dawkins to give me a
humbly justified opinion, including caveats about, say, the theory of
evolution.  But I can't trust him to give me a humbly justified opinion
about, say, whether God is a unit or a panoply.  Perhaps.  But, in
general, good skeptics exhibit their skepticism on a wide range of
issues, not just a few.  So, I'd tend to avoid Dawkins' advice on
anything because of his fanaticism regarding metaphysics.

--
glen e. p. ropella, 971-222-9095, http://agent-based-modeling.com


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Re: Game theorists hope to solve world's crises

Steve Smith
In reply to this post by glen e. p. ropella-2
I also liked Glen's use of "Convicted" as the (active/past?) form of "Conviction".   It invoked the appropriate image of _jail_ as Glen pointed out while alluding (alliteratively?) to Convinced.

My wife is the master (mistress?) of deliberate, well-crafted malapropisms such as this.  She uses them unabashedly and without comment... it is up to the rest of us to "catch up".

Perhaps the best (at least the first I encountered decades ago when we met) was her use of the term "excuse closet" where "excuse clause" would be more conventional... invoking the wonderful multiple reference to all the things one might stuff into a "junk closet", to "hiding behind a closet full of excuses", to having a whole pantry (closet) well stocked with excuses.

Is there a better term than simply "malapropism"?   "deliberate malapropism" captures a little more, but it is the "mal" that I object to... it is more that the "propism" is hijacked or co-opted in a deliberate and clever fashion.

Carry on!
- Steve
Quoting Nicholas Thompson circa 09-12-02 04:06 PM:
  
Glen, I LIKED THIS.  I particularly liked it, though, because of the odd
usage of convicted (for convinced).  Was that a sllip of the fingers, or
perhaps you are starting a new meme?  
    

Thanks.  I do it to highlight how stupid it is to put yourself in a
mental _jail_ ... to make yourself a mental convict by being convinced
of any one thing or another.

  


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