Fwd: Old friends Covid-19 letter #2

[Tom Johnson]

From my friend Mike Collins and Kathy Fox, reliable sources.

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Michael Collins <[hidden email]>
Date: Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 9:50 AM
Subject: Old friends Covid-19 letter #2
To: Kathe P Fox <[hidden email]>

Contents:

1. Feedback from our first letter

2. New research

3. Links to more information

1. Feedback

You are receiving this because we got a lot of positive feedback from our first letter. Thanks! We have two responses:

• Several people mentioned various drugs as potential health supplements or treatments. Since we think you should listen to experts, and we’re not experts on drugs or clinical practice, we’re not going to discuss drugs and treatments.

• A reader asked whether the “flatten the curve” charts we have been seeing reflect the same number of hospital cases as in the worst case scenarios. Yes, they do. However, there is reason to be optimistic. It’s quite possible that while we are putting off being exposed, better treatments may be developed, even before a vaccine is available. Think of how AZT helped mitigate the effects of HIV. Then the “flatten the curve” charts would reflect a smaller area below the curve.

2. Comments on new research

1. Nature Medicine article: Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China. Takeaways:

•  The death rate in Wuhan was lower than originally thought. This is because the population number (the denominator) increased. Think of it like an iceberg. The first studies were done on the tip, now we’re learning more about the part under water. This doesn’t mean the disease is any less serious, but it’s good news.

• Wuhan wasn’t prepared. We should expect a lower mortality rate in places that are better prepared. Also good news. 

2. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/commentary-covid-19-transmission-messages-should-hinge-science  COMMENTARY: COVID-19 transmission messages should hinge on science

Lida Brousseau, ScD, is a national expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases and professor (retired), University of Illinois at Chicago.

• This is potentially bad news. Based on some non-peer-reviewed reports, short range aerosol transmission may be a bigger factor in catching the virus than we suspected.

• Short range aerosol transmission means an infected person coughs/sneezes and the droplets stay in the air for a certain period of time - we don’t know how long. A study found that the SARS virus could stay in the air for up to three hours. You are exposed by inhaling the droplets (aerosol).

• If confirmed, this finding is primarily important to medical professionals, who will need to take more precautions, especially mask-wearing.

• “The public should avoid crowded spaces, stay home when possible, prepare for a lengthy period at home in case of quarantine, and follow public health and government instructions.” We should NOT buy, hoard, or wear masks, as they will be needed by health workers.

• Hand washing and surface cleaning may not be as important as first thought, but we should keep it up.

3.  Some interesting links

Washington Post. Simple simulations of how the virus spreads under various conditions. Should be free to access.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

NYT Zeke Emanuel flatten the curve explainer. Should be free to access.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-social-distancing-effect.html

If you want a really deep dive, you can take a whole course on Covid-19, developed by Imperial College and presented through Coursera. Free, approximately 19 hours to complete.  https://www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19?utm_medium=email&utm_source=marketing&utm_campaign=tIo98GlqEeqd_xFKDENJkw#syllabus

https://healthweather.us/  is a site developed for forecasting flu-like symptoms. It has added a view for “ atypical illness,” not necessarily covid but probably. You can see how things look in your state, county, or ZIP code. It looks to me like we should be sealing the border with Florida.

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Virus-free. www.avast.com

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