Fwd: EFFector 21.37: EFF Launches Election Issue Monitoring Site

[George Duncan-2]

To make sure our votes count ...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: EFFector list <[hidden email]>
Date: Fri, Oct 31, 2008 at 7:00 AM
Subject: EFFector 21.37: EFF Launches Election Issue Monitoring Site
To: [hidden email]


EFFector Vol. 21, No. 37  October 31, 2008  [hidden email]

A Publication of the Electronic Frontier Foundation
ISSN 1062-9424

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In our 489th issue:

* EFF LAUNCHED OurVoteLive.org THIS WEEK TO MONITOR
ELECTION PROBLEMS NATIONWIDE AND IMPROVE TRANSPARENCY IN
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS. Published on behalf of the
nonpartisan Election Protection coalition, the website
collects and analyzes voter calls to the 866-OUR-VOTE
hotline, gathering important data about voters' questions,
registration and identification problems, difficulties with
voting machines, and polling place accessibility issues.

In addition to raw incident data, OurVoteLive.org also
features incident maps, nationwide trend information and an
active election issues blog that will highlight important
election incidents as they develop. As part of our defense
of digital rights, EFF is committed to protecting the
electoral process and producing tools that help educate and
inform the public.

For the Our Vote Live website:
http://www.ourvotelive.org/

For the EFF press release about OurVoteLive.org:
http://www.eff.org/press/archives/2008/10/26

* EFF MARKED THE IGNOBLE 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DIGITAL
MILLENNIUM COPYRIGHT ACT (DMCA) WITH THE RELEASE OF
"UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES: Ten Years Under the DMCA," a
comprehensive report on the effects of anticircumvention
provisions that ban circumventing digital rights management
(DRM) and other technological protection measures. While
anticircumvention provisions have failed to prevent
"digital piracy," the "Unintended Consequences" have
proliferated wildly, ultimately harming fair use, free
speech, scientific research, and legitimate competition.

For more about the Unintended Consequences report:
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2008/10/dmca-ten-years-unintended-consequences

For the Freedom to Tinker blog's DMCA retrospective:
http://www.freedom-to-tinker.com/tags/dmca-week

For Public Knowledge's DMCA retrospective:
http://www.publicknowledge.org/tag/dmca

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EFF Updates

* Coalition Launches Global Network Initiative
Internet companies, including Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft,
have agreed to follow a set of principles on protecting
users' free expression and privacy.
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2008/10/global-network-initiative

* The Two Best Books About the DMCA
Here's where to turn for in-depth analysis of the DMCA and
its impact on digital culture.
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2008/10/two-best-books-about-dmca

* Google Book Search Agreement With Authors and Publishers
The massive settlement comes with radically new incentives
for Google and authors and publishers.
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2008/10/google-reaches-settlement-authors-over-google-book

* Hollywood Menaces DVD Rental Kiosks
Universal threatens Redbox in a shocking attack on the
first sale doctrine.
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2008/10/hollywood-menaces-dvd-rental-kiosks

* EFF's "Yellow Dots of Mystery" on Instructables
Watch our video to learn about printer tracking dots and
read the step-by-step tutorial for instructions on how to
see them for yourself.
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2008/10/effs-yellow-dots-mystery-instructables

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miniLinks

~ Court Rules Hash Analysis Is a Fourth Amendment Search
Similar hash analysis searches of an "entire computer"
would require a warrant.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081029-court-rules-hash-analysis-is-a-fourth-amendment-search.html

~ More in UK Wrongly Identified As File Sharers
Surprise, surprise -- investigators in the UK searching for
copyrighted content on peer to peer networks wind up
accusing innocent folks of infringement.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7697898.stm

~ 'Series Of Tubes' Senator Convicted of Corruption
With Senator Ted Stevens' reelection unlikely, CNET's
Declan McCullagh summarizes the history of Stevens' poor
Internet policy decisions as member of the Senate Commerce
Committee.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10076855-38.html

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Announcements

* Special EFF Member Discount on "Take Control Ebooks"

Our friends at TidBITS Publishing are offering all EFF
members a permanent 30% discount on Apple-oriented Take
Control ebooks. Written by some of the top names in the Mac
world, Take Control ebooks strive to be focused, in-depth,
and highly practical. The PDF-based ebooks use carefully
designed layout and typography for easy onscreen reading
and printing, and they include bookmarks, clickable links,
and a "Check for Updates" link that lets readers access
free updates and new editions. Best of all? They're totally
free of DRM.

If you're an EFF member and you'd like to take advantage of
this offer, send an email to [hidden email] to receive
the discount voucher code.

For the Take Control ebook catalog:
http://www.takecontrolbooks.com/catalog.html

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Administrivia

EFFector is published by:
The Electronic Frontier Foundation
 http://www.eff.org/about

Editor:
Richard Esguerra, EFF Activist
 [hidden email]

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--
George T. Duncan
Professor of Statistics, Emeritus
Heinz School of Public Policy and Management
Carnegie Mellon University
[phone]

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[Steve Smith]

George Duncan wrote:

To make sure our votes count ...

...

For the Our Vote Live website:
http://www.ourvotelive.org/

For the EFF press release about OurVoteLive.org:
http://www.eff.org/press/archives/2008/10/26

George,
Thanks for the link.  I'd be interested in a professional Statisticians opinion of the numbers and presentation on the site..

I am very pleased to have EFF on this task.   I think transparency is critical to any open system or society.  Unfortunately too many "grassroots transparency" initiatives are initiated and operated by unprofessional enthusiasts seeking evidence to support their existing point of view.  Their attempts at "transparency" often yield shall we say "rose" or "shit" colored lenses? 

On this particular topic, I can imagine two independent efforts lead by our two opposing parties managing to collect widely disagreeing data.   The further one faction (or party) leans out their side of the boat, the further the other has to lean the other way to keep things from upsetting, but the rest of us are left at their mercy, trying to make a safe passage in an otherwise sound boat.

On closer inspection of "ourvotelive.org", the only significantly "misleading" thing I found was that the DB (and map) reflected the raw number of contacts made with them, which were approximately 4-1 inquiries in the states I drilled into (about early voting rules, polling places) vs reports of problems.  On casual inspection, it would be easy to assume that there were 4-5 times as many reports of potential misconduct than there were. 

Another minor point is that the map symbology (saturation of color for each state) reflects total number of contacts w/o normalization.   California and Florida show up looking like hotbeds of problems when in fact, (esp. for California) what is shown is that it is a state with a large population.

I was surprised at how low the numbers are.  From the media talk, one would think there were at least ten times as many reports of potential misconduct out there.   By their numbers, 2600 reports of problems across the whole nation vs 14000 inquiries.  I do not know how to easily evaluate how many people know of this website or how likely they are to use it if they in fact have a problem.  If my order-of-magnitude calculation is correct, we are seeing .01 percent of the population weighing in with a question and .001 percent reporting a (potential) problem between August and now.   Perhaps these numbers will spike next week.

I also don't know how to evaluate how sensitive people are to the appearance of problems.  In my own circle of aquaintances, I know that there is a wide range of "sensitivities" from those who would report an attempt at intimidation simply because they'd had a disagreement over politics with someone within a week of casting their vote and others who would shrug off someone openly making threats to them on their way to the polls.  

This said, I suppose that while I trust and respect EFF's motives and skill in these matters, I fear this DB has many of the same problems any "poll" would have.   Since it is a self-selected group who report in such a case, I assume this also skews the numbers.

George, other statisticians?  Any thoughts on how to interpret these numbers?

- Steve

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org