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Flash mob rule?

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Roger Critchlow-2

Flash mob rule?

Okay, so my sister or brother-in-law forwarded the appended e-mail, which
proposes to bring the oil industry and OPEC to their knees until they bring
back $1.30/gal gasoline. Fortunately, the proposed selective boycott is
self-limiting -- as soon as all gas stations other than Mobil/Exxon have no
gas to sell, everyone will revert to buying gas as usual.

But the next bright idea that comes down the pike might not wear itself out
so harmlessly. Suppose, for a proverbial instance, everyone did flush
his or
her toilet at exactly the same time? Lots of our infrastructure was
designed
on the assumption that consumer loads would continue to be uncorrelated
in the
same degree as historically observed. Flash mobs aren't uncorrelated.

-- rec --

> I hear we are going to hit close to $3.00 a gallon by the summer. Want
>gasoline prices to come down? We need to take some intelligent, united
>action. Phillip Hollsworth, offered this good idea: This makes MUCH MORE
>SENSE than the "don't buy gas on a certain day" campaign that was going
>around last April or May! The oil companies just laughed at that because
>they knew we wouldn't continue to "hurt" ourselves by refusing to buy
>gas.
>It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them.
>BUT, whoever thought of this idea, has come up with a plan that can
>really
>work.
>
>Please read it and join with us!
>
>By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $1.50 is super
>cheap. Me too! It is currently $1.97 for regular unleaded in my town.
>Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to
>think that the cost! of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50- $1.75, we need
>to take
>aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the
>marketplace....not
>sellers. With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers
>need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of gas
>come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their
>gas!
>And we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves. How? Since we all rely on
>our
>cars, we can't just stop buying gas. But we CAN have an impact on gas
>prices if we all act together to force a price war.
>
>Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANY gasoline
>from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL. If
>they
>are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If
>they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit.
>But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and
>Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do!! Now, don't wimp out on me
>at this point...keep
>reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!!
>
>I am sending this note to about thirty people. If each of you send it to
>at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at least
>ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000)...and so on, by the time the message reaches
>the
>sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION
>consumers! If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten
>friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes
>one level further, you guessed it..... THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!
>
>Again, all You have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all. (If you
>don't understand how we can reach 300 million and all you have to do is
>send this to 10 people... Well, let's face it, you just aren't a
>mathematician.
>But I am ... so trust me on this one.)
>
>How long would all that take? If each of us sends this e-mail out to ten
>more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could
>conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days!!! I'll bet you didn't
>think you and I had that much potential, did you! Acting together we can
>make a difference.
>
>If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on. PLEASE HOLD OUT
>UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $1.30 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS
>CAN REALLY WORK.

Belinda Wong-Swanson-2

Flash mob rule?

Is this the new meaning for "Brownouts"?

-----Original Message-----
From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On
Behalf Of Roger E Critchlow Jr
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 12:50 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] Flash mob rule?

Okay, so my sister or brother-in-law forwarded the appended e-mail, which
proposes to bring the oil industry and OPEC to their knees until they bring
back $1.30/gal gasoline. Fortunately, the proposed selective boycott is
self-limiting -- as soon as all gas stations other than Mobil/Exxon have no
gas to sell, everyone will revert to buying gas as usual.

But the next bright idea that comes down the pike might not wear itself out
so harmlessly. Suppose, for a proverbial instance, everyone did flush
his or
her toilet at exactly the same time? Lots of our infrastructure was
designed
on the assumption that consumer loads would continue to be uncorrelated
in the
same degree as historically observed. Flash mobs aren't uncorrelated.

-- rec --

> I hear we are going to hit close to $3.00 a gallon by the summer. Want
>gasoline prices to come down? We need to take some intelligent, united
>action. Phillip Hollsworth, offered this good idea: This makes MUCH MORE
>SENSE than the "don't buy gas on a certain day" campaign that was going
>around last April or May! The oil companies just laughed at that because
>they knew we wouldn't continue to "hurt" ourselves by refusing to buy
>gas.
>It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them.
>BUT, whoever thought of this idea, has come up with a plan that can
>really
>work.
>
>Please read it and join with us!
>
>By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $1.50 is super
>cheap. Me too! It is currently $1.97 for regular unleaded in my town.
>Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to
>think that the cost! of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50- $1.75, we need
>to take
>aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the
>marketplace....not
>sellers. With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers
>need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of gas
>come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their
>gas!
>And we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves. How? Since we all rely on
>our
>cars, we can't just stop buying gas. But we CAN have an impact on gas
>prices if we all act together to force a price war.
>
>Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANY gasoline
>from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL. If
>they
>are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If
>they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit.
>But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and
>Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do!! Now, don't wimp out on me
>at this point...keep
>reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!!
>
>I am sending this note to about thirty people. If each of you send it to
>at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at least
>ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000)...and so on, by the time the message reaches
>the
>sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION
>consumers! If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten
>friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes
>one level further, you guessed it..... THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!
>
>Again, all You have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all. (If you
>don't understand how we can reach 300 million and all you have to do is
>send this to 10 people... Well, let's face it, you just aren't a
>mathematician.
>But I am ... so trust me on this one.)
>
>How long would all that take? If each of us sends this e-mail out to ten
>more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could
>conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days!!! I'll bet you didn't
>think you and I had that much potential, did you! Acting together we can
>make a difference.
>
>If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on. PLEASE HOLD OUT
>UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $1.30 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS
>CAN REALLY WORK.

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe
Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, etc.:
http://www.friam.org

Carl Tollander-2

Flash mob rule?

In reply to this post by Roger Critchlow-2

I seem to remember we used to have gas wars all the time. The
results evidently did not endure....

The actions of flash mobs may be correlated, but the effects
might not be...or be correlated in unexpected ways.

When all gas stations other than XXX have no
gas to sell, those stations will start buying it from
the XXX distributors. This would be a good thing
for those distributors, since they could lowball the
regular distributors, and when things went back to "normal" they
could pick up some more stations that went under because they
got hooked on the lower price. Wups, too many stations in <your
area>, time to close some, and the price on gas from the new,
leaner number of stations in <your area> will be........

As a tool of corporate strategy, flash mobs give a kind of deniability
(oh, the flash mob did it, shame about that, you know how unpredictable
they can be, too bad about your tanks, be a real pity if it were to happen
again, just sign here...).

-----Original Message-----
From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]]On
Behalf Of Roger E Critchlow Jr
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 12:50 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] Flash mob rule?

Okay, so my sister or brother-in-law forwarded the appended e-mail, which
proposes to bring the oil industry and OPEC to their knees until they bring
back $1.30/gal gasoline. Fortunately, the proposed selective boycott is
self-limiting -- as soon as all gas stations other than Mobil/Exxon have no
gas to sell, everyone will revert to buying gas as usual.

But the next bright idea that comes down the pike might not wear itself out
so harmlessly. Suppose, for a proverbial instance, everyone did flush
his or
her toilet at exactly the same time? Lots of our infrastructure was
designed
on the assumption that consumer loads would continue to be uncorrelated
in the
same degree as historically observed. Flash mobs aren't uncorrelated.

-- rec --

> I hear we are going to hit close to $3.00 a gallon by the summer. Want
>gasoline prices to come down? We need to take some intelligent, united
>action. Phillip Hollsworth, offered this good idea: This makes MUCH MORE
>SENSE than the "don't buy gas on a certain day" campaign that was going
>around last April or May! The oil companies just laughed at that because
>they knew we wouldn't continue to "hurt" ourselves by refusing to buy
>gas.
>It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them.
>BUT, whoever thought of this idea, has come up with a plan that can
>really
>work.
>
>Please read it and join with us!
>
>By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $1.50 is super
>cheap. Me too! It is currently $1.97 for regular unleaded in my town.
>Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to
>think that the cost! of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50- $1.75, we need
>to take
>aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the
>marketplace....not
>sellers. With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers
>need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of gas
>come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their
>gas!
>And we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves. How? Since we all rely on
>our
>cars, we can't just stop buying gas. But we CAN have an impact on gas
>prices if we all act together to force a price war.
>
>Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANY gasoline
>from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL. If
>they
>are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If
>they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit.
>But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and
>Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do!! Now, don't wimp out on me
>at this point...keep
>reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!!
>
>I am sending this note to about thirty people. If each of you send it to
>at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at least
>ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000)...and so on, by the time the message reaches
>the
>sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION
>consumers! If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten
>friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes
>one level further, you guessed it..... THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!
>
>Again, all You have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all. (If you
>don't understand how we can reach 300 million and all you have to do is
>send this to 10 people... Well, let's face it, you just aren't a
>mathematician.
>But I am ... so trust me on this one.)
>
>How long would all that take? If each of us sends this e-mail out to ten
>more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could
>conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days!!! I'll bet you didn't
>think you and I had that much potential, did you! Acting together we can
>make a difference.
>
>If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on. PLEASE HOLD OUT
>UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $1.30 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS
>CAN REALLY WORK.

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe
Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, etc.:
http://www.friam.org