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Does anybody know directly a covid case?

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thompnickson2

Does anybody know directly a covid case?

I changed the name of this thread. Having my name appear as a subject was beginning to make me feel like I died, or something.

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, June 28, 2020 3:48 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson

By the way, I just had a Zoom reunion with my fellow graduate students from Carnegie Mellon from the years 1967-1973 more or less. I had forgotten that one of them had Covid-19. Stu Card wrote a book with Allen Newell on human-computer interaction in which they develop a model of the human user. Stu has recovered despite having an "underlying condition".

Frank

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 3:12 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

They did not but I'm sure it's far smaller than 1/3.

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 2:08 PM Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:
Interesting. I didn't see the show, but might watch it on their web site. Did they mention what proportion of white Americans know someone who has had Covid-19?

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:
One third of all black Americans know a person who has had Covid-19. So says CBS Sunday Morning.

Frank
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020, 4:18 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:
I believe my brother has had it.

When he is well enough to move around and not infect anybody else he intends to go get tested for antibodies. Maybe another week.

Said it was one of the three worst illnesses of his life so far, though it looks like mostly extreme fatigue and lassitude; not evident trouble breathing. And he is 7 years younger than I am.

Eric

On Jun 28, 2020, at 1:23 AM, <[hidden email]> <[hidden email]> wrote:

David,

[hidden email] works just fine or [hidden email] .

I am really, REALLY sorry but I don't think we should meet. I just told my "pod" that I think that, with the rising cases in neighboring states, Santa Fe has started to get more dangerous again, and that we should we should be even more careful than we have been. (Rural Western Massachusetts got a lot of cases from "vacationing" New Yorkers in March.) With talk of a vaccine by the beginning of next year, it just seems stupid to take any risks whatsoever.

It's not that long. In the meantime, let's continue to interact electronically. We could do our own zoom session. You will point out how "notional" the hazard is, and I will have to admit that I actually have no first-hand experience with the disease, what-so-ever. I don't even know anybody, personally, who has told me that they know anybody who has had the disease. It is still, for me, a media event. A cultural meme. Pray God it remains that way.

So let's plan to meet "on the other side.".

You take care!

Nick
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2020 8:10 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson

Nick,

Your Earthlink email address (the only other one I have) bounced. I am in Santa Fe for a couple of days, until July 2.

davew

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--
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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Steve Smith

Re: Does anybody know directly a covid case?

My nephew in Tucson very likely had it... pretty harsh symptoms for about a month (April into May) and still recovering his stamina/breath... he called his doc who advised him to "stay home and ride it out" but said he couldn't offer a test unless he was admitted into the hospital. He may now be able to get an antigen test if he insists. His sister is a freshly minted RN who cares for dozens of COVID19 patients in a "nearly" full hospital in Riverside CA... many of the emergency personnel in the county she works with have contracted it (because their PPE isn't as good as the hospital workers, and they have less control over their contact with infected persons). I know about a half-dozen people who *want to believe* they had it for one reason or another. I'm doubting most if not all of them.

My $.02 analysis: The algebra of network transmission is geometric but the awareness of other's condition is closer to linear. Just because every actor is 7 degrees from Kevin Bacon doesn't mean many of them know the path(s) between them. This means if/when you do contract it, you probably won't see it coming, especially with the higher rates of asymptomatic infections being recognized?

From rt.live, two/thirds of the states have an Ro over 1.0, with the error bars, one might argue that many are around 1.33, which happens to also be the latest estimate for OK. Ro is the mean number of people that a COVID19 infected person will infect directly, given all of the factors, including social distancing, use of PPE and disinfection, etc. in place for the person. If the exponent is 1.33 then R1 is 1.78, and r6 (Kevin Bacon) is over 7.

So when one "average" person in Tulsa contracts COVID19, in 7 "gestation periods" (average 2-4 days?) 7 people will have contracted it for an R6 of 7. However, if that "average" person goes to a Trump Rally on day1 and chooses not to wear a mask (even if they do normally) then their Ro goes up significantly. If they *also* shout "lock her up!" or "build the wall!" or "4 more years!" "MAGAAAAaaa!" alternatively into the faces of the people beside them (gotta pack every seat, can't look like a wuss!) and over the shoulders of 3 or 4 in the row below them, then Ro jumps by 4 or 6 and then if they keep shouting and embracing and chest-bumping on the way out to the parking lot, you might add another 5 or 10 or 20. But "no problem", that is just one night of glory... maybe the 10 or 100 or 1000 people infected and attending *only* "super-spread" to 10x or 20x (there were only 6.xK so that caps it!) ... but wait! Do you (and all those you infect) go home and go back to Ro==1.33 behaviour, or are you all jacked up on Trump Fever and decide you will liberate yourself from that damned mask, and all that wussy "social distancing"? So now your Ro is >1.33... conservatively those infected while wearing their red hat too tight might slip by with an Ro of 2.0.... and since you are too proud to spend time with LIbtards and Wussy Dems ro^=2 becomes an R6 of 64. Sounds like the perfect formula for a super-spreading event. I'm guessing my estimates here are overdone or we will *patently* see a Trump-Spike from Tulsa (do we even know how many attendees were from OK?).

I understand that Trump2020 app records when it encounters a bluetooth beacon (ostensibly only in Trump2020 yard signs?), maybe a white-hat hacker can hijack it to do peer-to-peer contact tracing to *demonstrate* this KevinBaconCovid19 effect? Or maybe the TikTokkers have already hacked Trump2020App and are running around making Brad Parscale entirely misunderstand his demographic... nothing like a little false-confidence to FFfff up a campaign (eh DNC 2016)?

Of course, I could probably tell a similar story about BLM protestors (maybe even in Tulsa?) but oddly most of them seem to be happy to wear masks and maintain some distance, even if they are shouting "I can't Breathe!" and "Say their names!" or "No Trump! No KKK! No fascist USA!" at the top of their lungs, They might just be *doubling* their Ro to 2.7 and when they go home, they may well return to Ro=1.33 or better?

Did anyone else watch the Series "Watchmen" last year (I'm re-watching it right now)... Way too much premonition! Feeds the conspiracy that COVID19 and BLM protests are all a "Hollywood Elite" hoax. "Robert Redford, President for Life!"

- Steve

Search Results

Web resul

On 6/28/20 4:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

I changed the name of this thread. Having my name appear as a subject was beginning to make me feel like I died, or something.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, June 28, 2020 3:48 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson

By the way, I just had a Zoom reunion with my fellow graduate students from Carnegie Mellon from the years 1967-1973 more or less. I had forgotten that one of them had Covid-19. Stu Card wrote a book with Allen Newell on human-computer interaction in which they develop a model of the human user. Stu has recovered despite having an "underlying condition".

Frank

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 3:12 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

They did not but I'm sure it's far smaller than 1/3.

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 2:08 PM Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting. I didn't see the show, but might watch it on their web site. Did they mention what proportion of white Americans know someone who has had Covid-19?

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

One third of all black Americans know a person who has had Covid-19. So says CBS Sunday Morning.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020, 4:18 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I believe my brother has had it.

When he is well enough to move around and not infect anybody else he intends to go get tested for antibodies. Maybe another week.

Said it was one of the three worst illnesses of his life so far, though it looks like mostly extreme fatigue and lassitude; not evident trouble breathing. And he is 7 years younger than I am.

Eric

On Jun 28, 2020, at 1:23 AM, <[hidden email]> <[hidden email]> wrote:

David,

[hidden email] works just fine or [hidden email] .

I am really, REALLY sorry but I don't think we should meet. I just told my "pod" that I think that, with the rising cases in neighboring states, Santa Fe has started to get more dangerous again, and that we should we should be even more careful than we have been. (Rural Western Massachusetts got a lot of cases from "vacationing" New Yorkers in March.) With talk of a vaccine by the beginning of next year, it just seems stupid to take any risks whatsoever.

It's not that long. In the meantime, let's continue to interact electronically. We could do our own zoom session. You will point out how "notional" the hazard is, and I will have to admit that I actually have no first-hand experience with the disease, what-so-ever. I don't even know anybody, personally, who has told me that they know anybody who has had the disease. It is still, for me, a media event. A cultural meme. Pray God it remains that way.

So let's plan to meet "on the other side.".

You take care!

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2020 8:10 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson

Nick,

Your Earthlink email address (the only other one I have) bounced. I am in Santa Fe for a couple of days, until July 2.

davew

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--

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

--

Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .
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George Duncan-2

Re: Does anybody know directly a covid case?

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 7:18 PM Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

My nephew in Tucson very likely had it... pretty harsh symptoms for about a month (April into May) and still recovering his stamina/breath... he called his doc who advised him to "stay home and ride it out" but said he couldn't offer a test unless he was admitted into the hospital. He may now be able to get an antigen test if he insists.   His sister is a freshly minted RN who cares for dozens of COVID19 patients in a "nearly" full hospital in Riverside CA...   many of the emergency personnel in the county she works with have contracted it (because their PPE isn't as good as the hospital workers, and they have less control over their contact with infected persons). I know about a half-dozen people who *want to believe* they had it for one reason or another.   I'm doubting most if not all of them.

My $.02 analysis: The algebra of network transmission is geometric but the awareness of other's condition is closer to linear.   Just because every actor is 7 degrees from Kevin Bacon doesn't mean many of them know the path(s) between them.   This means if/when you do contract it, you probably won't see it coming, especially with the higher rates of asymptomatic infections being recognized?

From rt.live, two/thirds of the states have an Ro over 1.0, with the error bars, one might argue that many are around 1.33, which happens to also be the latest estimate for OK.   Ro is the mean number of people that a COVID19 infected person will infect directly, given all of the factors, including social distancing, use of PPE and disinfection, etc. in place for the person.   If the exponent is 1.33 then R1 is 1.78, and r6 (Kevin Bacon) is over 7.

<Political Rant Alert>

So when one "average" person in Tulsa contracts COVID19, in 7 "gestation periods" (average 2-4 days?) 7 people will have contracted it for an R6 of 7.   However, if that "average" person goes to a Trump Rally on day1 and chooses not to wear a mask (even if they do normally) then their Ro goes up significantly.   If they *also* shout "lock her up!" or "build the wall!" or "4 more years!" "MAGAAAAaaa!" alternatively into the faces of the people beside them (gotta pack every seat, can't look like a wuss!) and over the shoulders of 3 or 4 in the row below them, then Ro jumps by 4 or 6 and then if they keep shouting and embracing and chest-bumping on the way out to the parking lot, you might add another 5 or 10 or 20.   But "no problem", that is just one night of glory... maybe the 10 or 100 or 1000 people infected and attending *only* "super-spread" to 10x or 20x (there were only 6.xK so that caps it!) ...   but wait! Do you (and all those you infect) go home and go back to Ro==1.33 behaviour, or are you all jacked up on Trump Fever and decide you will liberate yourself from that damned mask, and all that wussy "social distancing"? So now your Ro is >1.33... conservatively those infected while wearing their red hat too tight might slip by with an Ro of 2.0....   and since you are too proud to spend time with LIbtards and Wussy Dems ro^=2 becomes an R6 of 64.   Sounds like the perfect formula for a super-spreading event.   I'm guessing my estimates here are overdone or we will *patently* see a Trump-Spike from Tulsa (do we even know how many attendees were from OK?).

I understand that Trump2020 app records when it encounters a bluetooth beacon (ostensibly only in Trump2020 yard signs?), maybe a white-hat hacker can hijack it to do peer-to-peer contact tracing to *demonstrate* this KevinBaconCovid19 effect? Or maybe the TikTokkers have already hacked Trump2020App and are running around making Brad Parscale entirely misunderstand his demographic...   nothing like a little false-confidence to FFfff up a campaign (eh DNC 2016)?

Of course, I could probably tell a similar story about BLM protestors (maybe even in Tulsa?) but oddly most of them seem to be happy to wear masks and maintain some distance, even if they are shouting "I can't Breathe!" and "Say their names!" or "No Trump! No KKK! No fascist USA!" at the top of their lungs, They might just be *doubling* their Ro to 2.7 and when they go home, they may well return to Ro=1.33 or better?

Did anyone else watch the Series "Watchmen" last year (I'm re-watching it right now)... Way too much premonition! Feeds the conspiracy that COVID19 and BLM protests are all a "Hollywood Elite" hoax. "Robert Redford, President for Life!"

- Steve

Search Results

Web resul
On 6/28/20 4:08 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
I changed the name of this thread. Having my name appear as a subject was beginning to make me feel like I died, or something.

N

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam [hidden email] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Sunday, June 28, 2020 3:48 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson

By the way, I just had a Zoom reunion with my fellow graduate students from Carnegie Mellon from the years 1967-1973 more or less. I had forgotten that one of them had Covid-19. Stu Card wrote a book with Allen Newell on human-computer interaction in which they develop a model of the human user. Stu has recovered despite having an "underlying condition".

Frank

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 3:12 PM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

They did not but I'm sure it's far smaller than 1/3.

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 2:08 PM Gary Schiltz <[hidden email]> wrote:

Interesting. I didn't see the show, but might watch it on their web site. Did they mention what proportion of white Americans know someone who has had Covid-19?

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM Frank Wimberly <[hidden email]> wrote:

One third of all black Americans know a person who has had Covid-19. So says CBS Sunday Morning.

Frank

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Sun, Jun 28, 2020, 4:18 AM David Eric Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

I believe my brother has had it.

When he is well enough to move around and not infect anybody else he intends to go get tested for antibodies. Maybe another week.

Said it was one of the three worst illnesses of his life so far, though it looks like mostly extreme fatigue and lassitude; not evident trouble breathing. And he is 7 years younger than I am.

Eric

On Jun 28, 2020, at 1:23 AM, <[hidden email]> <[hidden email]> wrote:

David,

[hidden email] works just fine or [hidden email] .

I am really, REALLY sorry but I don't think we should meet. I just told my "pod" that I think that, with the rising cases in neighboring states, Santa Fe has started to get more dangerous again, and that we should we should be even more careful than we have been. (Rural Western Massachusetts got a lot of cases from "vacationing" New Yorkers in March.) With talk of a vaccine by the beginning of next year, it just seems stupid to take any risks whatsoever.

It's not that long. In the meantime, let's continue to interact electronically. We could do our own zoom session. You will point out how "notional" the hazard is, and I will have to admit that I actually have no first-hand experience with the disease, what-so-ever. I don't even know anybody, personally, who has told me that they know anybody who has had the disease. It is still, for me, a media event. A cultural meme. Pray God it remains that way.

So let's plan to meet "on the other side.".

You take care!

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2020 8:10 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: [FRIAM] Nick Thompson

Nick,

Your Earthlink email address (the only other one I have) bounced. I am in Santa Fe for a couple of days, until July 2.

davew

- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
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George Duncan

Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com

See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Land: (505) 983-6895

Mobile: (505) 469-4671

My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion."

From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.

jon zingale

Re: Does anybody know directly a covid case?

This post was updated on .

In reply to this post by Steve Smith

Steve,

I was really impressed by the work put into the 'Watchmen'
television series, much better than the movie that was
supposedly based on the graphic novel. I loved that they
bothered to pick up where the book left off, and where the
movie conspicuously failed to end. Though I miss the whole
'tales from the black freighter' storyline at all. Alan Moore
can be pretty hit or miss, but with 'Watchmen' he managed
to make bulls-eye.

Jon

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