Demographics of Red and Blue States

[Stu Kauffman]

Hi Rich, where are you? After Feb 1: [hidden email]   Want to include you in possible paper on work we did. Stu
Stuart Kauffman

The Santa Fe Institute

The Department of Cell Biology & Physiology
The University of New Mexico

505-984-1998 Home
505-984-8245 FAX
505-272-4007 UNM
505-470-3949 Mobile

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: Richard Harris
  To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
  Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2004 10:45 PM
  Subject: RE: [FRIAM] Demographics of Red and Blue States


  I glanced at the site and thought it was a silly way to put together an index. So I looked at their technical notes. Here goes.

   

  Technical Notes for 2004 Generosity Index (2002 Data)

   

  The Generosity IndexT (GI) was conceived in 1997 as a concise way to summarize Massachusetts' and New England's greatest problem in philanthropy: that we have the nation's largest gap between our ranks in income and our ranks in charitable giving. The Generosity Index, with its "catchy" name, publicizes that fact and provides a way to monitor progress against the problem. We arrive at it by ranking each state's Average Adjusted Gross Income (AAGI) and Average Itemized Charitable Contribution (AICD or AICC), then subtracting the second rank from the first to get a single plus or minus number for each state indicating the favourable or unfavourable gap separating the ranks, and then ranking those numbers.

   

  Now, is it just me, or is there a small bias hiding somewhere in that first sentence? Just for kicks, I decided to make a few of my own columns. First of all, why divide total charitable giving by the number of returns with such deductions, when you can divide them by all returns. Why punish broad based giving, since, that's really what giving is all about. Isn't it? So, using this alternative giving metric, I came up with another ranking based on their methodology, except with this change. Massachusetts goes from 49 to a still bad but not so bad 43.

   

  Now, this whole business about subtracting one rank from another to get yet another seems dubious. Another possible and possibly simpler and more direct way to rank generosity is to divide charitable giving by the AACI. If you do this, Massachusetts goes from 49 in their ranking to 40.

   

  None of this changes the general correlation between generosity and geography though. Its just a little, but not much, kinder to Massachusetts.

   

  Rich

   

   

        State
       Their Generosity Ranking (divide only by the number of returns with charitable giving)
       Alternative Generosity Ranking (divide by total number of returns)
       Another Alternative Generosity Ranking (simple ratio of giving to income)
       
        Mississippi
       1
       6
       9
       
        Arkansas
       2
       8
       11
       
        Oklahoma
       3
       4
       5
       
        Louisiana
       4
       20
       33
       
        Alabama
       5
       3
       3
       
        Tennessee
       6
       10
       12
       
        South Dakota
       7
       34
       46
       
        Utah
       8
       1
       1
       
        South Carolina
       9
       2
       4
       
        Idaho
       10
       5
       8
       
        Wyoming
       11
       15
       13
       
        Texas
       12
       40
       30
       
        West Virginia
       13
       27
       50
       
        Nebraska
       14
       12
       15
       
        North Dakota
       15
       30
       48
       
        North Carolina
       16
       7
       7
       
        Kansas
       17
       25
       21
       
        Florida
       18
       39
       26
       
        Georgia
       19
       9
       2
       
        Kentucky
       20
       14
       25
       
        Montana
       21
       11
       24
       
        Missouri
       22
       26
       27
       
        New Mexico
       23
       19
       42
       
        Alaska
       24
       48
       44
       
        Indiana
       25
       37
       31
       
        New York
       26
       17
       10
       
        Iowa
       27
       29
       36
       
        Ohio
       28
       36
       35
       
        California
       29
       23
       16
       
        Maryland
       30
       16
       6
       
        Illinois
       31
       38
       28
       
        Maine
       32
       42
       45
       
        Delaware
       33
       24
       22
       
        Washington
       34
       45
       38
       
        Vermont
       35
       44
       47
       
        Oregon
       36
       13
       14
       
        Hawaii
       37
       35
       34
       
        Virginia
       38
       22
       17
       
        Arizona
       39
       18
       20
       
        Nevada
       40
       41
       32
       
        Pennsylvania
       41
       46
       39
       
        Michigan
       42
       33
       23
       
        Colorado
       43
       28
       19
       
        Connecticut
       44
       32
       37
       
        Minnesota
       45
       21
       18
       
        Wisconsin
       46
       47
       41
       
        New Jersey
       47
       31
       29
       
        Rhode Island
       48
       49
       43
       
        Massachusetts
       49
       43
       40
       
        New Hampshire
       50
       50
       49
       

   

   

  -----Original Message-----
  From: George Duncan [mailto:[hidden email]]
  Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2004 6:08 PM
  To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
  Subject: RE: [FRIAM] Demographics of Red and Blue States

   

  For a contrary view, see

  http://www.catalogueforphilanthropy.org/cfp/db/generosity.php?year=2004 

   

  Red states have a higher generosity index than blue states.

   

  When we figure this out, maybe we can avoid having someone like Rick

  Santorum as president in 2008.

   

  Cheers, George

   

  George T. Duncan

  Professor of Statistics

  Heinz School of Public Policy and Management

  Carnegie Mellon University

  Pittsburgh, PA 15213

  Phone/FAX: [phone]

   

   

  -----Original Message-----

  From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf

  Of Owen Densmore

  Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2004 11:56 AM

  To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Friam

  Subject: Fwd: [FRIAM] Demographics of Red and Blue States

   

  Hi folks.  Here's Roger's study available via ftp/html:

   

  http://backspaces.net/files/ 

  041128_demographics_of_voters_by_red_and_blue_states.pdf

   

  Thanks Roger!  Very interesting.

   

  Owen

   

  Begin forwarded message:

   

  > From: "Roger D. Jones" <[hidden email]>

  > Date: November 30, 2004 9:44:51 AM MST

  > To: "'Owen Densmore'" <[hidden email]>

  > Subject: RE: [FRIAM] Demographics of Red and Blue States

  > Reply-To: <[hidden email]>

  >

  > Owen,

  > Here it is. If you would post it that would be great. Thanks a lot.

  >

  > Roger D. Jones

  > Chairman and Chief Scientific Officer

  > CommodiCast

  > 552 Agua Fria Street

  > Santa Fe, NM 87501

  > +1.505.310.2256 mobile

  > www.commodicast.com

  >

  > -----Original Message-----

  > From: Owen Densmore [mailto:[hidden email]]

  > Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2004 9:39 AM

  > To: [hidden email]

  > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Demographics of Red and Blue States

  >

  > Yes, please.  If you'd like, I could post it on a web site temporarily

  > so that folks could just download it w/o bothering you.

  >

  > Hope all is well!

  >

  > Owen

  >

  > On Nov 30, 2004, at 9:13 AM, Roger D. Jones wrote:

  >

  >>

  >> Friam,

  >>

  >> I have performed a little study of the demographics of red and blue

  >> states.

  >> The results are surprising and are certainly emergent. If you would

  >> like a

  >> copy of the pdf file (about 500kb) send me an email at

  >> [hidden email] .

  >>

  >> Roger Jones

   

   

  ============================================================

  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

  Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe

  Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, etc.:

  http://www.friam.org

   

   

   

  ====================

  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv

  Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe

  Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, etc.:

  http://www.friam.org

   

   



------------------------------------------------------------------------------


  ============================================================
  FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
  Meets Fridays 9AM @ Jane's Cafe
  Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, etc.:
  http://www.friam.org
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: /pipermail/friam_redfish.com/attachments/20050122/f7ce6d12/attachment-0001.htm