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Covid and Politics

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Merle Lefkoff-2

Covid and Politics

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

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cody dooderson

Re: Covid and Politics

That explain a lot about what seems like an extremely polar response to the lockdowns. A few days ago, a friend of mine saw a guy at the grocery store here in Albuquerque carrying an AK-47 and refusing to wear a mask. Thanks you for the insight.

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 10:52 AM Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Covid and Politics

There are 1.4 million people living in nursing homes in the US. If, over time, COVID-19 spreads to the rest of the population that would be about 200 times worse (328 million / 1.6 million cases so far), assuming no herd immunity. Once those conspicuous bursts of deaths subsided (because the most vulnerable were all dead), victory would be declared, esp. by red states. From there, spread would happen more steadily. At the same death rate observed so far, that would mean 20 million could die. Someone had ironically joked this might rescue the Social Security system. (I don’t think it will because those in nursing homes have already cashed in everything to get there.) It would be interesting to know how many 50 and 60 year-olds have to disappear to make the numbers work?

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of cody dooderson <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 10:11 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 10:52 AM Merle Lefkoff <[hidden email]> wrote:

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

--

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

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thompnickson2

Re: Covid and Politics

In reply to this post by Merle Lefkoff-2

Merle,

So, we flattened the curve. Good. That’s done. But the whole metaphor of flattening the curve has an implication that has never been explored. Other than the excess deaths that occur because intensive care fails, a flattened curve has just as many deaths as a peaky curve. So if we only flatten the curve, then somewhere around 1 percent of the population dies. That’s 3.5 million people. Is that tolerable? If yes, then our policy consists of letting people go back to work and jumping on any outbreaks that occur before they can get “peaky”.

If no, then what? The next policy down, it seems to me, or “up” in terms of invasiveness, is what I have been calling the “white-van policy”. Every suspect case or contact is tested and those people who cannot show a negative test or immunity are immediately isolated and cared for at government expense until they show negative. Such a policy, paired with a limitation on large gatherings, would probably eliminate the virus from being a major consideration by september. But the only state I know of that has even GESTURED in that direction is Massachusetts, and they are no-where NEAR getting there. Mortality under half a million, all in?

What frustrates me to distraction is that Santa Fe is not exploring such a strategy right now. At two cases a day, how many contacts could these cases possibly have? Hire a bunch of young folks to do contact tracing and isolation support and then gradually open up.

There’s a third strategy which nobody has considered out loud, call it the “Isolate the Vulnerable Strategy”. Since something like 80 percent (?) of those who die are vulnerable, suppose you isolate people like me (like us?) and let the rest of them pass the disease around pretty freely. Let’s say we isolate 150 million people and let the others roam free. We could probably get to herd immunity in the 200 million by December at a cost of a million deaths? That would imply 8 million hospitalizations over six months? Is that tolerable?

Do you remember the good old days when the notion of “death panels” sent the right wing into a frenzy. Hell, now we are talking about “death trenches”.

I dunno.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:52 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org

Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2

twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff

Gary Schiltz-4

Re: Covid and Politics

Nick, you're reinforcing the negative perceptions that most of the world has toward the USA. If 1% of the population dies, that's 1% of 8 billion people, i.e. about 80 million. Not 3.5 million. Unless you want to close off borders across the world, we all have to think of this as a human disease, not an American one. I don't mean to be mean, just blunt.

What all this points out to me is just how damnably hard it must be to be a politician advocating for policies without really knowing the risks of opening vs isolation. We still don't know how deadly this virus is, since we still don't have a good handle on that pesky denominator (number that die from Sars-Cov2 / number infected). If I understand right, we (USA? Europe? Asia?) generally only test people who we think might be infected. I'm not a statistician nor epidemiologist, but it seems to me that we should first take a very large (millions), truly random sample of people with the initial goal of testing to identify a set of people who "have" the virus. Then follow these people for the month or two that it takes for the virus to run its course, categorizing them by how serious the disease was for them. Knowing that the risk of death might be one or two percent would suggest drastically tighter restrictions that if it is less than one tenth of a percent.

I don't want to see a lot of people die (especially older people, who I think are VERY valuable for their experience and knowledge). But if this drags on for years, I truly fear for the fate of advanced civilization.

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 1:00 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Merle,

So, we flattened the curve. Good. That’s done. But the whole metaphor of flattening the curve has an implication that has never been explored. Other than the excess deaths that occur because intensive care fails, a flattened curve has just as many deaths as a peaky curve. So if we only flatten the curve, then somewhere around 1 percent of the population dies. That’s 3.5 million people. Is that tolerable? If yes, then our policy consists of letting people go back to work and jumping on any outbreaks that occur before they can get “peaky”.

If no, then what? The next policy down, it seems to me, or “up” in terms of invasiveness, is what I have been calling the “white-van policy”. Every suspect case or contact is tested and those people who cannot show a negative test or immunity are immediately isolated and cared for at government expense until they show negative. Such a policy, paired with a limitation on large gatherings, would probably eliminate the virus from being a major consideration by september. But the only state I know of that has even GESTURED in that direction is Massachusetts, and they are no-where NEAR getting there. Mortality under half a million, all in?

What frustrates me to distraction is that Santa Fe is not exploring such a strategy right now. At two cases a day, how many contacts could these cases possibly have? Hire a bunch of young folks to do contact tracing and isolation support and then gradually open up.

There’s a third strategy which nobody has considered out loud, call it the “Isolate the Vulnerable Strategy”. Since something like 80 percent (?) of those who die are vulnerable, suppose you isolate people like me (like us?) and let the rest of them pass the disease around pretty freely. Let’s say we isolate 150 million people and let the others roam free. We could probably get to herd immunity in the 200 million by December at a cost of a million deaths? That would imply 8 million hospitalizations over six months? Is that tolerable?

Do you remember the good old days when the notion of “death panels” sent the right wing into a frenzy. Hell, now we are talking about “death trenches”.

I dunno.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:52 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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Prof David West

Re: Covid and Politics

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

Nick,

3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US.

It is acceptable and it will be accepted. The fact that many find this morally reprehensible is pretty much beside the point.

Contributing to the acceptance will be numbers like Italy just reported, 96% of the deaths suffered from other illnesses. This will translate into, "they would have died anyway."

Add the fact, again based on Italy, 1.1% of the fatalities will be in people under 50 and 66% of the US population is under that age. So if the old folk are the ones to bear the brunt of the disease and we already care so little about them that we are happy to warehouse them out of sight, then, for most folk it will be really, really, acceptable.

Bleak cynicism? Yep.

BTW - your white van policy could not be 100%, so its most likely outcome would be a September with a few, non-recognized, likely asymptomatic, cases still out there; putting us in pretty much the same situation as prevailed in December of 2019. Merrily, merrily up the exponential curve once more.

Cassandra

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 12:00 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

Merle,

So, we flattened the curve. Good. That’s done. But the whole metaphor of flattening the curve has an implication that has never been explored. Other than the excess deaths that occur because intensive care fails, a flattened curve has just as many deaths as a peaky curve. So if we only flatten the curve, then somewhere around 1 percent of the population dies. That’s 3.5 million people. Is that tolerable? If yes, then our policy consists of letting people go back to work and jumping on any outbreaks that occur before they can get “peaky”.

If no, then what? The next policy down, it seems to me, or “up” in terms of invasiveness, is what I have been calling the “white-van policy”. Every suspect case or contact is tested and those people who cannot show a negative test or immunity are immediately isolated and cared for at government expense until they show negative. Such a policy, paired with a limitation on large gatherings, would probably eliminate the virus from being a major consideration by september. But the only state I know of that has even GESTURED in that direction is Massachusetts, and they are no-where NEAR getting there. Mortality under half a million, all in?

What frustrates me to distraction is that Santa Fe is not exploring such a strategy right now. At two cases a day, how many contacts could these cases possibly have? Hire a bunch of young folks to do contact tracing and isolation support and then gradually open up.

There’s a third strategy which nobody has considered out loud, call it the “Isolate the Vulnerable Strategy”. Since something like 80 percent (?) of those who die are vulnerable, suppose you isolate people like me (like us?) and let the rest of them pass the disease around pretty freely. Let’s say we isolate 150 million people and let the others roam free. We could probably get to herd immunity in the 200 million by December at a cost of a million deaths? That would imply 8 million hospitalizations over six months? Is that tolerable?

Do you remember the good old days when the notion of “death panels” sent the right wing into a frenzy. Hell, now we are talking about “death trenches”.

I dunno.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Merle Lefkoff
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:52 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

--
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
President, Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
[hidden email]
mobile: (303) 859-5609
skype: merle.lelfkoff2
twitter: @Merle_Lefkoff
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus

thompnickson2

Re: Covid and Politics

It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus

Prof David West

Re: Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
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Marcus G. Daniels

Re: Covid and Politics

It’s not to the point of killing us all off, just those that threaten to draw from Social Security. (A Plandemic instigated by Rand Paul!)

Finding more paths in is a sound fitness function.

From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of Prof David West <[hidden email]>
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 12:57 PM
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=evolution+of+infectious+disease+by+paul+ewald&i=stripbooks&crid=2M9WVN279ILHB&sprefix=Paul+Ewald+evolu%2Cstripbooks%2C271&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16"> Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels

Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus

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thompnickson2

Re: Covid and Politics

In reply to this post by Prof David West

Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:

It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Covid and Politics

Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
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thompnickson2

Re: Covid and Politics

So what is “benignitivity”?

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
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Frank Wimberly-2

Re: Covid and Politics

Only pathologists care about that.

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

So what is “benignitivity”?
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
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Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918

cody dooderson

Re: Covid and Politics

In reply to this post by thompnickson2

Every so often I will read about a treatment that is showing promise, or a vaccine that works in ostriches or something. Sorry I don't have any of the links bookmarked. With all of the smart people working on treatments, is it possible that social distancing bought us enough time so that we will not need the 'white van' approach in September?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

So what is “benignitivity”?
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
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thompnickson2

Re: Covid and Politics

Cody,

Llama plasm. I am not betting on Llama plasm by September.

I think of this as our war. Look: if the Russians had occupied New YorK city, Boston, and the Chinese had invaded San Francisco and and LA, we wouldn’t be waiting around hoping to be rescued by Llama plasm. We would be hunkering down for a long campaign.

The White Van society is not that bad, it’s not that expensive, and it would do the job.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:15 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

So what is “benignitivity”?
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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cody dooderson

Re: Covid and Politics

Nick,

After reading your post, I went on a short quest to prove you wrong. Regretfully I did not find much information to support my claim. The most optimistic date for a vaccine is like 9 months away, which is likely a very rough estimate. They have a pretty effective vaccine for rhesus macaques, but I am not particularly concerned with that.

September's second wave is only 3 months away, so it looks like a vaccine is not going to be ready. Will we achieve natural herd immunity before the vaccine is available?

Another article mentions neutralizing antibodies, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc2241. Do they intend to mass produce those antibodies and then inject them into patients or is it just a proof of concept?

Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did this deadline come from?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 3:50 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Cody,

Llama plasm. I am not betting on Llama plasm by September.

I think of this as our war. Look: if the Russians had occupied New YorK city, Boston, and the Chinese had invaded San Francisco and and LA, we wouldn’t be waiting around hoping to be rescued by Llama plasm. We would be hunkering down for a long campaign.

The White Van society is not that bad, it’s not that expensive, and it would do the job.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:15 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Every so often I will read about a treatment that is showing promise, or a vaccine that works in ostriches or something. Sorry I don't have any of the links bookmarked. With all of the smart people working on treatments, is it possible that social distancing bought us enough time so that we will not need the 'white van' approach in September?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

So what is “benignitivity”?
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
-- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ...
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thompnickson2

Re: Covid and Politics

Last night, on TRMS, a Montgomery AL nurse mentioned in passing that they were using plasma-based therapies, so I guess it’s out there.

Somebody responded to my earlier post as if I were a cynic. I might be a liberal fascist, but I am not a cynic. I believe in the White Van Policy. I think it would be cheaper, allow for more opening up, and LESS intrusive, particularly the more rigorously it is enforced on those few people it is enforced on. Imagine, for a moment that we could seal off Santa Fe County, with its 150 k-folks. (Big assumption). At two reported cases a day, there are, let’s say, at any one time 20 people floating around the City with the Virus? If all 20 of those had been picked up by the White Vans and were living at State Expense at the Sage Inn, fed by the heavily masked (but currently unemployed) hot bar cooks at Whole Foods, the rest of us could mostly run free, no? The only problem is hiring the marks-people to sit by the roadside and shoot anyone who tries to come up the hill at La Bajada. Hell, the NRA would probably provide those people for free.

Yeh. Maybe the White Van Policy doesn’t work.

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

[hidden email]

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Wednesday, May 27, 2020 11:24 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Nick,

September's second wave is only 3 months away, so it looks like a vaccine is not going to be ready. Will we achieve natural herd immunity before the vaccine is available?

Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did this deadline come from?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 3:50 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

Cody,

Llama plasm. I am not betting on Llama plasm by September.

I think of this as our war. Look: if the Russians had occupied New YorK city, Boston, and the Chinese had invaded San Francisco and and LA, we wouldn’t be waiting around hoping to be rescued by Llama plasm. We would be hunkering down for a long campaign.

The White Van society is not that bad, it’s not that expensive, and it would do the job.

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 3:15 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Every so often I will read about a treatment that is showing promise, or a vaccine that works in ostriches or something. Sorry I don't have any of the links bookmarked. With all of the smart people working on treatments, is it possible that social distancing bought us enough time so that we will not need the 'white van' approach in September?

Cody Smith

On Tue, May 26, 2020 at 2:27 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:

So what is “benignitivity”?
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 2:26 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Benignness. Benignity means kindness or tolerance toward others. See how annoying we language obsessives are.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Tue, May 26, 2020, 2:11 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Yes. The virus will evolve toward benignity, but only IF the transmission rate is slowed. If allowed full freedom, the virus will first evolve toward virility (high mortality rate) and then, as herd immunity is achieved, become mild and endemic. Think of the competition within each host between the different strains. The benign strain is making fewer copies of itself, but has a greater chance of being passed between hosts; the virulent strain is making more copies, but in that effort, is killing off it’s hosts quicker. It’s a trait group selection problem. Under high transmissibility, the virulent strain wins; under low transmissibility, the benign strain wins.

I hope I got that right.

Nick

Nick

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:57 PM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Does not Ewald suggest that a virus might evolve to be more benign vis-a-vis its hosts so as to maximize the number of potential hosts, i.e. avoid killing them off and reducing their will and actions in resistance?

Probably totally misread him as that is not at all my field of interest.

davew

On Tue, May 26, 2020, at 1:49 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
It gets even MORE interesting if we consider the variable environment to which the virus is optimizing. According to Ewald’s theory, the virulence of the virus evolves in relation to its Ro, so a more transmissible virus will become more virulent, etc and vv.

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
[hidden email]
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Marcus Daniels
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2020 1:36 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Covid and Politics

Dave writes:

< 3.5 million deaths is perfectly acceptable. Mostly because that total will accumulate at a rate of 150-170,000 per year which puts COVID in the lower half of the top five causes of death in the US. >

It gets more interesting if SARS-Cov2 is optimizing itself.

Marcus
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Steve Smith

Re: Covid and Politics

In reply to this post by cody dooderson

Cody -

Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did this deadline come from?

I think September is a placeholder for:

Return to School (and the social mixing implied at all grade levels)
Acutely (equinox) shortening days of sunlight (UV on outdoor surfaces and time spent out/indoors/close quarters)
Cooler weather (not sure that is anything but a proxy for 2?).

cody dooderson

Re: Covid and Politics

I had what I think is a great idea for herd immunity. What if the government were to open overnight summer camps, and even pay for every kid to spend 1 month canoeing, camping, and most importantly catching covid. This way they could gain a herd immunity so that school could safely open in September.

On Wed, May 27, 2020, 2:05 PM Steve Smith <[hidden email]> wrote:

Cody -

Nothing in my search will be ready for the September deadline. Where did this deadline come from?

I think September is a placeholder for:

Return to School (and the social mixing implied at all grade levels)

Acutely (equinox) shortening days of sunlight (UV on outdoor surfaces and time spent out/indoors/close quarters)

Cooler weather (not sure that is anything but a proxy for 2?).

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