Corvid-nerd request
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Suddenly, I cannot find anywhere a map of weekly or daily average, raw or per-population, county level, new case corvid data, i.e.. I am sure I am being dumb. Somebody, help me to not be dumb. Thanks, Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Yes. Thanks, Frank. That’s where it used to be. But the “case growth rate” is only represented graphically, and is becoming increasingly a useless number because it is SO dependent on howmany cases the county has already had. What I am really looking for is the daily case increase, or even better, the daily case increase per 100 k pop. Thanks, N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 2:40 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
-- Frank Wimberly -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Picky, picky. Seriously, ... On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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No, no. I am not being picky. Or at least, I hope not. What I want to know is the relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to Hampshire County MA. (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different issue). I think that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population. I may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT site, any more. By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Picky, picky. Seriously, ... On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
-- Frank Wimberly -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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There’s a lot here.. https://github.com/starschema/COVID-19-data From: Friam <[hidden email]> on behalf of "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]> No, no. I am not being picky. Or at least, I hope not. What I want to know is the relative risk of staying here in Santa Fe County NM or going to Hampshire County MA. (never mind getting there, that’s a whole different issue). I think
that decision is best shaped by knowing how many new cases there are, full stop in, and/or how many new cases there are per population. I may be being REALLY DUMB, but I don’t think I can find that info from the NYT site, any more.
By the way, I am mixing up my CORvid threads with my COvid threads.
Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of
Frank Wimberly Picky, picky. Seriously, ... On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:05 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
-- Frank Wimberly -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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In reply to this post by thompnickson2
It was an intertextual reference. When Pat something on the Smother Brothers Show was running for president he gave a speech in which he said, "My opponent says I have no foreign policy experience, that I lack knowledge of the fiscal policy, that I have no understanding of welfare policy, that I have no experience as an executive. Well, I say picky picky." I was happy to see that Santa Fe County has experienced only three deaths. It's unlikely that your county in Massachusetts has that low a rate, isn't it. Frank On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:12 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
Frank Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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Yes. It’s definitely more than that. N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly It was an intertextual reference. When Pat something on the Smother Brothers Show was running for president he gave a speech in which he said, "My opponent says I have no foreign policy experience, that I lack knowledge of the fiscal policy, that I have no understanding of welfare policy, that I have no experience as an executive. Well, I say picky picky." I was happy to see that Santa Fe County has experienced only three deaths. It's unlikely that your county in Massachusetts has that low a rate, isn't it. Frank On Sun, May 24, 2020 at 3:12 PM <[hidden email]> wrote:
-- Frank Wimberly -- --- .-. . .-.. --- -.-. -.- ... -..-. .- .-. . -..-. - .... . -..-. . ... ... . -. - .. .- .-.. -..-. .-- --- .-. -.- . .-. ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ |
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In reply to this post by thompnickson2
Nick, The probability of any individual in the US having COVID-19 (known cases divided by population) is .00518 How many strangers — people you do not know are disease free or are non-infecting with antibodies — do you encounter, close enough to exchange droplets, in Santa Fe? Add the number of strangers that anyone in your inner circle might similarly encounter? Let's assume that an encounter guarantees transmission, such that if you/yours encounters someone with the disease, you will be infected. So, if you or yours encounter ten strangers, your odds of getting the disease increase to .0518. If a hundred, then .518 The only difference in risk between Santa Fe and Massachusetts is the number of strangers you/yours encounter. That number is pretty much under your control, so there is some, but relatively minor, difference in risk. using cases/population data, the odds of a stranger having covid in Hampshire county is 830/160,000 = .00519. In Santa Fe County, 126/150,000 = .00084. The odds that a stranger has the virus is six times greater in Hampshire. You control the number of strangers, so you control the risk. Most of the other factors that I can think of — e.g. likelihood of a droplet exchange, likelihood of transmission — reduce the risk from the worst case numbers above. A factor that would increase risk concerns the likelihood that a stranger has the disease given smaller population units than the county; i.e. 200 known cases in a 300 resident nursing home = 66%. Stay out of nursing homes! Go to Mass and continue to be a hermit. Caveat: I grabbed the first numbers on Google that presented themselves. Statisticians feel free to tear my argument apart. davew On Sun, May 24, 2020, at 3:12 PM, [hidden email] wrote:
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