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Some interesting papers on complex systems as applied to stock markets.
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/pub_complex.asp#complexAccording to my latest copy of Physics World (which is where I got the =
above
link), Sornette's models are a bit hit-or-miss. He successfully =
predicted an
antibubble in the Nikkei (1999 - and no, I don't know what an =
antibubble
is) and a crash in the NASDAQ (April 2000) but he also predicted a =
couple
more US market crashes that never happened (Dec 97 and Oct 99 - let's =
hope
he didn't buy too many put options).=20
Robert
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<TITLE>Complex systems & stock markets</TITLE>
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<P><FONT FACE=3D"Arial">Some interesting papers on complex systems as =
applied to stock markets.</FONT>
</P>
<P><A =
HREF=3D"
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/pub_complex.asp#complex"=
><U><FONT COLOR=3D"#0000FF" =
FACE=3D"Arial">
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/pub_complex.asp#c=omplex</FONT></U></A>
</P>
<P><FONT FACE=3D"Arial">According to my latest copy of Physics World =
(which is where I got the above link), Sornette's models are a bit =
hit-or-miss. He successfully predicted an antibubble in the Nikkei (1999 =
- and no, I don't know what an antibubble is) and a crash in the =
NASDAQ (April 2000) but he also predicted a couple more US market =
crashes that never happened (Dec 97 and Oct 99 - let's hope he didn't =
buy too many put options). </FONT></P>
<P><FONT FACE=3D"Arial">Robert</FONT>
</P>
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