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McNamara, Laura A

Comp Social Science and Decision Making

Thanks, Tom - this is on the right track - certainly I've read a lot of
Axelrod's work. And I do remember our conversation at FriAm a few weeks
ago about Ver 1.0. I'd like to pass your conference invitation on to a
couple of friends - do you have an electronic copy?

I realized I wasn't as specific as I needed to be. I'm interested in
research that's attempting to use computational models, especially agent
based models, to shed light on social 'things', especially culture - but
not for academic research. I know that there's some of this work going
on in the intelligence community, both military and civilian. My sense
is that the agencies developing these models are looking for tools that
will help them wrap their brains around really hairy problems like - oh,
the emergence of terrorist cells, or stabilizing and rebuilding recently
invaded, shall-remain-unnamed countries in the Middle East. I'm
wondering if anyone has written about this phenomenon.

I haven't found much, but I'm starting to put material together for a
paper on this topic - namely, what's the proper [social, organizational,
cultural] location for computational models of social phenomena in
organizational cultures that engage in high-consequence decision making?
Are the model developers, the same as the model users, the same as the
subject matter experts, the same as the model customers, the same as the
decision makers? How is knowledge of, and about, and for, the model
distributed within the organization? What is the model - predictive,
diagnostic, descriptive? Etc, etc.

You see, I've been watching the nuclear weapons programs at the national
laboratories sort out the proper role of computational models in their
knowledge production and decision making processes, and as many of you
know, it's been a struggle. Assuming that the intelligence, military,
and like branches of our government are exploring the use of
computational models for their problem spaces, I'm wondering if decision
makers face similar epistemological struggles when working computational
models into their decision-making culture... and if not, then why?

EEERRYGH, I'm going home. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Laura

________________________________

From: [hidden email] [mailto:[hidden email]] On
Behalf Of J T Johnson
Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2005 5:37 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Comp Social Science and Decision Making

Laura:

I don't know if this is exactly what you're after, but do a Google on
"Lars-Erik Cederman" He has done/is doing some interesting work on
complexity in democratic societies.

Also check out:

*In EVOLUTION IN THE COMPUTER AGE - Proceedings of the Center for the
Study of Evolution and the Origin of Life, edited by David B. and Gary
B. Fogel. Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Sudbury, Massachusetts (2002).
Computer Models of Cultural Evolution
Nicholas Gessler
gessler at ucla.edu
http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~gessler/ <http://www.bol.ucla.edu/%7Egessler/>

Ideas, and other atomic particles of human culture, often seem to have a
life of their own -- organization, mutation, reproduction, spreading,
and dying. In spite of several bold attempts to construct theories of
cultural evolution, an adequate theory remains elusive. The financial
incentive to understand any patterns governing fads and fashion is
enormous, and because cultural evolution has contributed so much to the
uniqueness of human nature, the scientific motivation is equally great.
(Taylor & Jefferson 1994, 8.)
http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/geog/gessler/cv-pubs/02comocultevo.htm

* "Robert Axelrod, in his book THE COMPLEXITY OF COOPERATION, presents
"a model" of culture based upon three principles: agent-based
interaction, no central authority, and adaptive rather than rational
agents, to show how global polarization can be generated from the
convergence of local social influences such as beliefs, attitudes and
behaviors."

* In many ways, much of the long-view GIS activity is tied to
"computational modeling and applied social science." (One might make a
case that government agencies are doing more with GIS as a tool for
developing policy than the private sector.) Go to www.esri.com and do a
site search with "policy making." Also see ESRI Press: GIS in Public
Policy
<http://gis.esri.com/esripress/display/index.cfm?fuseaction=display&webs
iteID=41>

And, he casually added, the Ver 1.0 workshop <http://www.ver1point0.org>
scheduled for Santa Fe in April (with a number of FRIAM-ers
participating) will be looking at how to verify public records
databases, which, of course, drive a ton of decision-making. And in
these cases, if the data is dirty, so can be the policy decisions.

I'd like to talk with you more about this.

-Tom Johnson

On 11/22/05, McNamara, Laura A <lamcnam at sandia.gov> wrote:

Hey all,

I'm looking for articles or writing about computational modeling
in the
APPLIED social sciences - more specifically, I'm looking for
information
on how/where computational social models are being used in the
development of policy and in decision making. EpiSims is one
example,
as is TranSims - can you think of others?

Does anyone know of critiques, discussions, studies of the role
of
computational social science in decision making?

Thanks,

Laura

============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at Mission Cafe
Wed Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, maps, etc. at
http://www.friam.org

--
==============================================
J. T. Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism
www.analyticjournalism.com
505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)
http://www.jtjohnson.com tom at jtjohnson.com

"He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense."
-John McCarthy, Stanford University mathematician
==============================================
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Tom Johnson

Comp Social Science and Decision Making

Laura:

I do hope we can discuss this more after Tkgsvg. I also think that
Cederman's citations will keep you busy.

Yes, you raise an interesting question. As is the case with all new tools,
it takes a while -- sometimes a long while -- to figure out what are
appropriate circumstances and applications. I'm currently watching with
fascination how people are trying to do all sorts of interesting things with
Google maps. Perhaps we could argue that intellectual winnowing is the
essence of wisdom?

I've attached some documents about Ver 1.0 and they can also be found on
the web site. Yes, please circulate. We are especially looking for
sponsors.

Happy holiday.
-tj

On 11/22/05, McNamara, Laura A <lamcnam at sandia.gov> wrote:

>
> Thanks, Tom - this is on the right track - certainly I've read a lot of
> Axelrod's work. And I do remember our conversation at FriAm a few weeks ago
> about Ver 1.0. I'd like to pass your conference invitation on to a couple
> of friends - do you have an electronic copy?
>
> I realized I wasn't as specific as I needed to be. I'm interested in
> research that's attempting to use computational models, especially agent
> based models, to shed light on social 'things', especially culture - but not
> for academic research. I know that there's some of this work going on in
> the intelligence community, both military and civilian. My sense is that the
> agencies developing these models are looking for tools that will help them
> wrap their brains around really hairy problems like - oh, the emergence of
> terrorist cells, or stabilizing and rebuilding recently invaded,
> shall-remain-unnamed countries in the Middle East. I'm wondering if
> anyone has written about this phenomenon.
>
> I haven't found much, but I'm starting to put material together for a
> paper on this topic - namely, what's the proper [social, organizational,
> cultural] location for computational models of social phenomena
> in organizational cultures that engage in high-consequence decision making?
> Are the model developers, the same as the model users, the same as the
> subject matter experts, the same as the model customers, the same as the
> decision makers? How is knowledge of, and about, and for, the model
> distributed within the organization? What is the model - predictive,
> diagnostic, descriptive? Etc, etc.
>
> You see, I've been watching the nuclear weapons programs at the national
> laboratories sort out the proper role of computational models in their
> knowledge production and decision making processes, and as many of you know,
> it's been a struggle. Assuming that the intelligence, military, and like
> branches of our government are exploring the use of computational models for
> their problem spaces, I'm wondering if decision makers face similar
> epistemological struggles when working computational models into their
> decision-making culture... and if not, then why?
>
> EEERRYGH, I'm going home. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
>
> Laura
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Friam-bounces at redfish.com [mailto:Friam-bounces at redfish.com] *On
> Behalf Of *J T Johnson
> *Sent:* Tuesday, November 22, 2005 5:37 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Comp Social Science and Decision Making
>
> Laura:
>
> I don't know if this is exactly what you're after, but do a Google on "
> Lars-Erik Cederman" He has done/is doing some interesting work on
> complexity in democratic societies.
>
> Also check out:
>
> *In EVOLUTION IN THE COMPUTER AGE - Proceedings of the Center for the
> Study of Evolution and the Origin of Life, edited by David B. and Gary B.
> Fogel. Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Sudbury, Massachusetts (2002).
> Computer Models of Cultural Evolution
> Nicholas Gessler
> gessler at ucla.edu
> http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~gessler/ <http://www.bol.ucla.edu/%7Egessler/>
> Ideas, and other atomic particles of human culture, often seem to have a
> life of their own -- organization, mutation, reproduction, spreading, and
> dying. In spite of several bold attempts to construct theories of cultural
> evolution, an adequate theory remains elusive. The financial incentive to
> understand any patterns governing fads and fashion is enormous, and because
> cultural evolution has contributed so much to the uniqueness of human
> nature, the scientific motivation is equally great. (Taylor & Jefferson
> 1994, 8.)
> http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/geog/gessler/cv-pubs/02comocultevo.htm
>
> * "Robert Axelrod, in his book THE COMPLEXITY OF COOPERATION, presents "a
> model" of culture based upon three principles: agent-based interaction, no
> central authority, and adaptive rather than rational agents, to show how
> global polarization can be generated from the convergence of local social
> influences such as beliefs, attitudes and behaviors."
>
> * In many ways, much of the long-view GIS activity is tied to
> "computational modeling and applied social science." (One might make a case
> that government agencies are doing more with GIS as a tool for developing
> policy than the private sector.) Go to www.esri.com and do a site search
> with "policy making." Also see ESRI Press: GIS in Public Policy<http://gis.esri.com/esripress/display/index.cfm?fuseaction=display&websiteID=41>
>
> And, he casually added, the Ver 1.0 workshop <http://www.ver1point0.org>scheduled for Santa Fe in April (with a number of FRIAM-ers participating)
> will be looking at how to verify public records databases, which, of course,
> drive a ton of decision-making. And in these cases, if the data is dirty,
> so can be the policy decisions.
>
> I'd like to talk with you more about this.
>
> -Tom Johnson
>
> On 11/22/05, McNamara, Laura A <lamcnam at sandia.gov> wrote:
> >
> > Hey all,
> >
> > I'm looking for articles or writing about computational modeling in the
> > APPLIED social sciences - more specifically, I'm looking for information
> > on how/where computational social models are being used in the
> > development of policy and in decision making. EpiSims is one example,
> > as is TranSims - can you think of others?
> >
> > Does anyone know of critiques, discussions, studies of the role of
> > computational social science in decision making?
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > Laura
> >
> >
> > ============================================================
> > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at Mission Cafe
> > Wed Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, maps, etc. at
> > http://www.friam.org
> >
>
>
>
> --
> ==============================================
> J. T. Johnson
> Institute for Analytic Journalism
> www.analyticjournalism.com
> 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)
> http://www.jtjohnson.com tom at jtjohnson.com
>
> "He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense."
> -John McCarthy, Stanford University mathematician
> ==============================================
>
> ============================================================
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at Mission Cafe
> Wed Lecture schedule, archives, unsubscribe, maps, etc. at
> http://www.friam.org
>
>

--
==============================================
J. T. Johnson
Institute for Analytic Journalism
www.analyticjournalism.com
505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)
http://www.jtjohnson.com tom at jtjohnson.com

"He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense."
-John McCarthy, Stanford University mathematician
==============================================
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