Hi, everybody,
There are indications that your current drought in Santa Fe may come abruptly to an end next week. In the forecast discussion, the forecaster describes the upcoming situation as unlike anything he has seen in 20 years of NM forecasting. Basically, a big storm in the upper atmosphere, loaded down with Gulf Moisture, is going to back down from the Ohio valley into New Mexico. If the forecast verifies, you could have more rain next week than you have had in the last six months. As you know, I am given to meteorological hysteria, but here's the Advisory from NOAA.
...INCREASING RISK OF AREAS OF HEAVY TO PERHAPS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO FROM LATER SUNDAY TO AT LEAST TUESDAY...
AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE EVOLVING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP AND WILL EXTEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND...AT TIMES...BE EVEN MORE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY TO EVEN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALES THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION UPSWING IS
MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ENTERS THE STATE. DURING THE DAY MONDAY THAT SURGE PROGRESSES
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ALL OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST IMPACTED AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR AND
SOME DISTANCE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BOTH THESE AREAS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL RISK TUESDAY AS WELL. THE
MOISTURE FEED MAY WELL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH EAST INTO MID
OR EVEN LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE LOCALIZED BY THEN.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD...LOCALLY EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCALES. THIS COULD CREATE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
OF SOME SMALL STREAMS AND ARROYOS...ALONG WITH EVEN SOME RISK OF THE
LARGER STREAM FLOODING IF THE HEAVY RAINS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH.
PS --Please if using the address
[hidden email] to reply, cc your message to
[hidden email]. Thanks.
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